Causes of haze and its health effects in Singapore; a replication study - 43799188
24
0
0
Hele tekst
(2) Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Causes of haze and its health effects in Singapore; a replication study Kiviet, Jan University of Amsterdam. 11 November 2019. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96950/ MPRA Paper No. 96950, posted 14 Nov 2019 16:43 UTC.
(3) 4HF8F B9 ;4M8 4A7 <GF ;84?G; 8S86GF <A .<A:4CBE8 4 E8C?<64G<BA FGH7L %4A !
(4) &<I<8G 18EF<BA B9 )BI8@58E % ' ?4FF<N64G<BAF $ ,
(5) &8LJBE7F "& #!" $ " ! " ! !" # " $"& ! !"$"& &!!. "#!# $AG8E@<GG8AG?L .<A:4CBE8 FHS8EF 9EB@ F8I8E8 4<E CB??HG<BA <A C8E<B7F B9 <AG8AF8 9BE8FG 4A7 C84G?4A7 NE8F BA A8<:;5BE<A: .BHG; F<4A <F?4A7F
(6) E868AG $% 4EG<6?8 @B78?87 G;8 64HF4? E8?4G<BAF;<CF 58GJ88A NE8 <AG8AF<GL <A $A7BA8F<4 4A7 4<E CB??HG<BA +.$ <A .<A:4CBE8 4A7 58GJ88A +.$ 4A7 ;84?G; 6?<A<6 I<F<GF <A .<A:4CBE8
(7) 28 NA7 F8E<BHF O4JF <A G;8 DH4AG<G4G<I8 4FF8FF@8AG B9 G;8F8 E8?4G<BAF;<CF
(8) GG8@CGF 4E8 @478 GB E8C4<E G;8F8 HF<A: G;8 F4@8 6?4FF<6 @8G;B7B?B:L 4A7 74G4 5HG 4?FB 5L 4?G8EA4G<I8 @8G;B7F E8DH<E<A: ?8FF FC86H?4G<I8 4FFH@CG<BAF
(9) ?G;BH:; 46GH4??L @BE8 78G4<?87 74G4 4E8 E8DH<E87 4?FB FB@8 E8FH?GF 4E8 CEB7H687 J;<6; F88@ @BE8 6E87<5?8
(10).
(11) #! $# *I8E G;8 C4FG G;E88 786478F .BHG;84FG F<4 ;4F FHS8E87 F8I8E4? G<@8F 9EB@ F8I8E8 F@B>L 4<E CB??HG<BA 7HE<A: C8E<B7F B9 4 98J 74LF BE FB@8G<@8F B9 F8I8E4? J88>F
(12) /;<F C4EG<6H?4E GLC8 B9 48EBFB? <F 477E8FF87 4F ;4M8
(13) $G <F 64HF87 5L ?4E:8 F64?8 5HEA<A: B9 9BE8FGF 4A7 64E5BA E<6; C84G?4A7F 8FC86<4??L BA G;8 $A7BA8F<4A <F?4A7F .H@4GE4 4A7 BEA8B @4<A?L GB 6?84E ?4A7 9BE C4?@ B<? 4A7 CH?CJBB7 CEB7H6G<BA
(14) .H6; NE8F 4A7 G;8<E <?? 8S86GF BA A8<:;5BE<A: 6BHAGE<8F F88@ JBEF8 7HE<A: 7E4H:;G C8E<B7F J;<6; ;4I8 586B@8 4 @BE8 9E8DH8AG C;8AB@8ABA HA78E G;8 <AOH8A68 B9 6?<@4G8 6;4A:8
(15) ?G;BH:; 4?? 6BHAGE<8F HA<G87 <A G;8 FFB6<4G<BA B9 .BHG;84FG F<4A )4G<BAF . ) 4:E887 <A BA 4 #4M8 6G<BA +?4A 4A7 F<:A87 <A G;8 :E88@8AG BA /E4AF5BH74EL +B??HG<BA C8 E<B7F B9 F8E<BHF ;4M8 FG<?? E8 B66HE @BFG E868AG?L <A .<A:4CBE8 7HE<A: .8CG8@58E . +EB98FFBE B9 6BAB@8GE<6F @FG8E74@ .6;BB? B9 6BAB@<6F 0A<I8EF<GL B9 @FG8E74@ +* BK )% @FG8E74@ /;8 )8G;8E?4A7F =
(16) 9
(17) ><I<8GHI4
(18) A?
(19).
(20) 4A7 .8CG8@58E
(21) /;<F C;8AB@8ABA 4A7 G;8 <@@8AF8 CEB5?8@F <G :8A8E4G8F 64??F 9BE F6<8AG<N6 <AI8FG<:4G<BA 5L @4AL 7<F6<C?<A8F FH6; 4F 86B?B:L 9BE8FGEL CB?<G<64? F6<8A68F. 86BAB@<6F @8G8BEB?B:L GBK<6B?B:L 8C<78@<B?B:L ;84?G; F6<8A68F 6H?GHE4? ;<FGBEL 8G 68G8E4
(22) (4AL 4FC86GF B9 <GF BE<:<AF 4A7 F6BC8 G;BH:; F88@ E4G;8E J8?? HA78EFGBB7 4?E847L 4A7 <GF B66HEE8A68 4A7 G;8 4FF8FF@8AG B9 @4AL B9 <GF 6BAF8DH8A68F ;4I8 588A 6?BF8?L @BA<GBE87 <A @4AL 7<@8AF<BAF BI8E @4AL L84EF
(23) ?FB FGE4G8:<8F GB BI8E6B@8 BE 4IB<7 G;8@ ;4I8 588A ?4<7 BHG 786478F 4:B 4?E847L F88 9BE <AFG4A68 ,H4;
(24) )8I 8EG;8?8FF FH668FF9H? 46G<BAF E8:H?4GBEL ?8:4? CB?<G<64? 7<C?B@4G<6 NA4A6<4? GB 46GH4??L FGBC G;<F 9EB@ ;4CC8A<A: ;4I8 ABG L8G @4G8E<4?<M87 78FC<G8 G;8 <AG8E@<GG8AG?L BA:B<A: <@@8AF8 86B?B:<64? 4A7 ;84?G; 74@4:8 BA GBC B9 F8E<BHF ?BFF B9 86BAB@<6 CEB7H6G<I<GL
(25) !BE .<A:4CBE8 4?BA8 G;8 6BFGF B9 G;8 ;4M8 C8E<B7 ;4I8 588A 8FG<@4G87 GB 4@BHAG GB 0.
(26) 5<??<BA F88 ,H4; 4A7 ;<4
(27) /B B5G4<A G;<F 8FG<@4G8 G;8L HF87 G;8 FC86<4? GBB? B9 86BAB@<6 <AI8FG<:4G<BA 64??87 6BFG 58A8NG 4A4?LF<F
(28) /;<F 4<@F GB 8KCE8FF <A @BA8L G8E@F 4?? ?BFF8F ABG =HFG G;BF8 <A CEB7H6G<I<GL FH6; 4F <A G;8 GBHE<FG <A7HFGEL. 5HG 4?FB G;BF8 <A ;84?G; 4A7 <A ;4CC<A8FF
(29) #8E8 J8 J4AG GB <??HFGE4G8 <A J;4G J4L 4ABG;8E G86;A<DH8 9EB@ G;8 GBB?5BK B9 86B AB@<6F 64A 6BAGE<5HG8 GB 4 58GG8E HA78EFG4A7<A: B9 C4EG<6H?4E 4FC86GF B9 G;8 ;4M8 CEB5 ?8@
(30). 6BAB@8GE<6 G86;A<DH8F 64A 58 HF87 GB DH4AG<9L E8?4G<BAF;<CF 58GJ88A C;8AB@8A4. ?<>8 G;8 AH@58E B9 46G<I8 5HF; NE8F <A $A7BA8F<4 FH5F8DH8AG CB??HG<BA <A78K E847<A:F <A .<A:4CBE8 4A7 E8FH?G<A: 8KGE4 ;84?G; 6?<A<6 I<F<GF
(31) /;8 J85F<G8 B9 G;8 (8G8BEB?B:<64? .8EI<68 .<A:4CBE8 CEBI<78F 74<?L -8:<BA4? #4M8 (4CF <A7<64G<A: G;8 4E84F <A .BHG;84FG F<4 J;8E8 G;8 4<E CB??HG<BA ?8I8? <F ;<:; <A 6B@5<A4G<BA J<G; G;8 ?B64G<BAF B9 ;BGFCBGF
(32) /;8 ?4GG8E E8CE8F8AG B5F8EI4G<BAF 5L F4G8??<G8F B9 46G<I8 NE8F
(33) )B FC86<4?<M87 FG4G<FG<64? GE4<A<A: <F E8DH<E87 GB 58 4FFHE87 49G8E G4><A: ABG8 B9 4 F8E<8F B9 FH6; @4CF G;4G ;4M8 <F 7<E86G?L 64HF87 5L G;8F8 NE8F
(34) $A 477<G<BA 8I8EL5B7L J;B ;4F 8I8E 46GH4??L 8KC8E<8A687 F8E<BHF ;4M8 9BE F8I8E4? 74LF J<?? ;4I8 ?<GG?8 7BH5GF G;4G ;4M8 @4L 64HF8 4A HCFHE:8 B9 I<F<GF B9 C4G<8AGF GB ;84?G; 6?<A<6F 7<4:ABF87 J<G; E8FC<E4GBEL 4A7 8L8 4<?@8AGF
(35) #BJ8I8E. 4F J8 F;4?? F88 <G <F DH<G8 7<R6H?G 4A7 <A 946G F8E<BHF?L CEB5?8@4G<6 GB 466HE4G8?L 4F F8FF J;4G CB??HG<BA ?8I8?F BA8 @4L 8KC86G <A .<A:4CBE8 :<I8A G;8 AH@58E 4A7 ?B64G<BA B9 ;BGFCBGF B5F8EI87 5L F4G8??<G8
(36) '<>8J<F8 <G <F ABG 84FL GB DH4AG<9L ;BJ G;8 AH@58E B9 C4G<8AGF 7<4:ABF87 J<G; C4EG<6H?4E ;4M8 E8?4G87 4<?@8AGF I4E<8F J<G; G;8 ?8I8? B9 G;8 CB??HG<BA <A78K
(37) $G 4E8 CE86<F8?L G;8F8 E8?4G<BAF;<CF G;4G ;4I8 588A <AI8FG<:4G87 5L .;8?7BA 4A7 .4A>4E4A J;B 477E8FF87 4F .. 58?BJ @84FHE8 G;8 <@C46G B9 $A7BA8F<4A .
(38) 9BE8FG NE8F BA 4<E CB??HG<BA <A .<A:4CBE8 4A7 4?FB B9 G;<F CB??HG<BA BA FB@8 .<A:4CBE84A ;84?G; <A7<64GBEF
(39) !BE G;8<E DH4AG<G4G<I8 64HF4? 4A4?LF<F G;8L HF8 CBCH?4E 6?4FF<6 86BAB @8GE<6 @8G;B7F >ABJA HA78E G;8 A4@8 B9 /JB .G4:8 '84FG .DH4E8F /.'. J;<6; 9BHA7 G;8<E C?468 <A G;8 FG4A74E7 86BAB@8GE<6F GBB?5BK F;BEG?L 49G8E G;8 .86BA7 2BE?7 24E
(40) $A .86G<BA J8 E8I<8J G;8 @4=BE 4FC86GF B9 G;<F G86;A<DH8 4:4<AFG G;8 546>:EBHA7 B9 :8A8E4? @8G;B7B?B:<64? CEB5?8@F 9BE G;<F GLC8 B9 8@C<E<64? FG4G<FG<64? 64HF4? E8F84E6;. ;8E8 4CC?<87 GB 8AI<EBA@8AG4? 4A7 ;84?G; <FFH8F
(41) )8KG <A .86G<BA J8 NEFG 6E<G<64??L 7<F6HFF G;8 J4L <A J;<6; .. 6;BF8 GB HF8 G;8F8 @8G;B7F
(42) /;8A <A 4 NEFG FH5F86G<BA J8 6BA9EBAG G;8<E E8FH?GF J<G; @BE8 :8A8E4? <@C?8@8AG4G<BAF B9 G;8 F4@8 /.'. G86;A<DH8 J;<?8 HF<A: G;8 I8EL F4@8 74G4
(43) /;8F8 FGEBA:?L E89HG8 G;8 .. E8FH?GF
(44) #BJ8I8E ABG 9BE 4?? 9BHE B9 G;8 @4=BE E8?4G<BAF;<CF 8K4@<A87 5L .. J8 64A NA7 9H??L F4G<F946GBEL /.'. E8FH?GF BHEF8?I8F
(45) $A C4EG G;<F F88@F 7H8 GB ?<@<G4G<BAF B9 G;8 74G4 F8G
(46) )8KG <A FH5F86G<BA
(47) J8 E86BAF<78E BA8 B9 G;8 AH@58E B9 ;84?G; 6?<A<6 I<F<G E8?4G<BAF;<CF 5HG ABJ 4CC?L<A: 4 I8EL E868AG?L 78I8?BC87 4?G8EA4G<I8 86BAB@8GE<6 G86;A<DH8 64??87 &'.. J;<6; 4IB<7F @4><A: C4EG<6H?4E HAG8FG87 FHCCBF<G<BAF HA78E?L<A: /.'.
(48) /;<F 4?? ?847F <A G;8 NA4? .86G<BA GB FB@8 CE46G<64? 6BA6?HF<BAF 4F J8?? 4F GB FB@8 FH::8FG<BAF 9BE 9HEG;8E E8F84E6;
(49) . $" &"" # & $" !!"" !" -8:E8FF<BA 4A4?LF<F 9BE@F G;8 JBE> ;BEF8 B9 86BAB@8GE<6<4AF <G <F 4G G;8 54F<F B9 @BFG 86BAB@8GE<6 G86;A<DH8F
(50) G BA8 8KGE8@8 G;8F8 @4L 6BA68EA FG4G<FG<64? 9BE864FG<A: G86; A<DH8F J;<6; B9G8A HF8 ?<GG?8 BE AB 86BAB@<6 BE FH5=86G @4GG8E >ABJ?87:8 5HG @4<A?L GEL GB 8KGE4CB?4G8 <A 4 E4G;8E @86;4A<64? J4L E8:H?4E<G<8F J<G;<A 4A7 58GJ88A I4E<45?8F 4F B5F8EI87 BI8E G;8 E868AG C4FG
(51) A7 4G G;8 BG;8E 8KGE8@8 G;<F @4L <AIB?I8 FGEH6GHE4? 64HF4? @B78?<A: J;<6; 4<@F GB E8I84? 9EB@ 8@C<E<64? B5F8EI4G<BAF G;8 8FF8AG<4? AH@8E <64? C4E4@8G8EF B9 6B@C?8K 86BAB@<6 BE @BE8 :8A8E4? A4GHE4? F6<8AG<N6 E8?4G<BAF;<CF
(52) $A <GF A4GHE8 G;8 ?4GG8E 4CCEB46; <F B9G8A 4G ?84FG C4EG?L <AFC<E87 5L F<@<?4E<G<8F J<G; G;8 786ELCG<BA B9 G;8 9HA74@8AG4? ?4JF B9 C;LF<6F
(53) KGE4 6B@C?<64G<BAF @8G <A 8@C<E<64? FGEH6GHE4? 64HF4? E8F84E6; BA <AG8E8FG<A: CE46 G<64? FB6<4? BE A4GHE4? ?<98?<>8 C;8AB@8A4 4E8 G;4G B5F8EI4G<BAF BA G;8F8 7B 4F 4 EH?8 ABG E8FH?G 9EB@ 6BAGEB??87 ?45BE4GBEL 8KC8E<@8AGF 5HG @HFG 7<E86G?L 58 B5G4<A87 9EB@ . .;BEG?L 49G8E J8 ;47 FG4EG87 G;<F E8C?<64G<BA FGH7L 4A7 ;47 6B??86G87 G;8 6E<G<DH8 BA G;8 .. FGH7L 4F E8CBEG87 <A G;8 <A<G<4? C4:8F B9 .86G<BA 58?BJ J8 6BAG46G87 <A (4L G;8 4HG;BEF 4A7 <AI<G87 G;8@ GB 7854G8 G;8<E 4CCEB46;
(54) ?FB 49G8E 4 E8@<A78E 4 @BAG; ?4G8E AB E8FCBAF8 J4F E868<I87
(55). .
(56) J;4G ;4F 46GH4??L ;4CC8A87 <A G;8 6B@C?8K JBE?7 4EBHA7 HF
(57) /;<F @84AF G;4G @4AL 7<FGHE5<A: <A6<78AG4? 946GBEF @4L F8E<BHF?L 5?HE G;8 8FF8AG<4?F B9 G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<CF HA78E FGH7L
(58) (BE8BI8E @BFG?L <G 4E8 ABG =HFG G;8 C4E4@8G8E I4?H8F G;4G 4E8 L8G GB 58 7<F6?BF87
(59) ?FB G;8 F8G B9 78G8E@<A<A: 946GBEF 4F FH6; B9 G;8 C;8AB@8A4 HA78E FGH7L 4F J8?? 4F G;8 46GH4? 9HA6G<BA4? 9BE@ B9 G;8 E8?8I4AG E8?4G<BAF;<CF 4E8 4F 4 EH?8 L8G HA>ABJA
(60) /;HF. G;8F8 ;4I8 GB 58 @B78?87 GB:8G;8E J<G; G;8 4FF8FF@8AG B9 G;8 E8?8I4AG C4E4@8G8E I4? H8F <A 4 E86HEF<I8 CEB68FF B9 GE<4? 4A7 8EEBE
(61) $A I4E<BHF EBHA7F BA8 FC86<N8F 4 F8G B9 4FFH@CG<BAF A8KG 8KC?B<GF G;8F8 GB B5G4<A 8@C<E<64? 8FG<@4G8F 9B??BJ87 5L 6BA9EBAG<A: G;8 B5G4<A87 E8FH?GF J<G; G;8 4FFH@CG<BAF @478 @<FFC86<N64G<BA G8FG<A: 4A7 <A 64F8 B9 <A6BA:EH<G<8F BA8 F;BH?7 E89BE@H?4G8 G;8 4FFH@CG<BAF GB 8AG8E 4 A8KG EBHA7
(62). FC8. 6<4??L J;8A G;8 4I4<?45?8 74G4 4E8 6;4E46G8E<M87 5L F8I8E8 ?<@<G4G<BAF BE G;8 8@C?BL87 4FFH@CG<BAF 4E8 GBB 94E 9EB@ E84?<GL G;8E8 <F AB :H4E4AG88 G;4G G;<F CEB68FF J<?? 8I8E 6BAI8E:8 4A7 <9 <G 6BAI8E:8F J;8G;8E <G L<8?7F GEHG;9H? BHG6B@8F
(63) #BJ8I8E 5L 58<A: 8KC?<6<G 45BHG G;8 EB47 9B??BJ87 BA8 @4L ;BC89H??L 6;4??8A:8 4A7 946<?<G4G8 9HGHE8 A8KG 4GG8@CGF CBFF<5?L HF<A: 58GG8E 74G4 F8GF @BE8 E84?<FG<6 @B78? 4FFH@CG<BAF 4A7 C8E;4CF 4?FB 58GG8E A8J?L 78I8?BC87 FG4G<FG<64? G86;A<DH8F
(64) 28 F>8G6; ;8E8 G;8 6;4E46G8E<FG<6F B9 G;8 GLC8 B9 @B78? HF87 <A G;<F 4A7 I8EL @4AL BG;8E 8@C<E<64? 64HF4? FGH7<8F 9B6HFF<A: BA G;8 @4=BE 6B@C?<64G<BAF B9 G;8 CE8I4<?<A: G86;A<DH8 HF87 9BE <GF 4A4?LF<F
(65) '8G - G;8 C4EG<6H?4E I4E<45?8 B9 BHE CE<@4EL <AG8E8FG 64??87 G;8 E8:E8FF4A7 58 64HF4??L 78G8E@<A87 5L G;8 B5F8EI87 ?<A84E?L <A78C8A78AG 5HG HFH4??L 6BEE8?4G87 I4E<45?8F , , 64??87 G;8 E8:E8FFBEF 4A7 5L FB@8 BG;8E HAB5F8EI87 946GBEF 6B??86G87 <A 6B@CBA8AG
(66) G;8 7<FGHE54A68 466BE7<A: GB G;8 ?<A84E E8?4G<BAF;<C - , ,
(67) .
(68) . 864HF8 ABA?<A84E E8?4G<BAF;<CF 58GJ88A I4E<45?8F 64A B9G8A 58 @B78?87 4F ?<A84E <A G;8 HA>ABJA C4E4@8G8EF 49G8E 4 ABA?<A84E GE4AF9BE@4G<BA B9 G;8 B5F8EI87 I4E<45?8F.
(69) 4?FB 6;4E46G8E<M8F @4AL F<GH4G<BAF <A J;<6; G;8 B5F8EI87 I4E<45?8F 4E8 ABA?<A84E?L 64HF4??L E8?4G87
(70) /;8 46GH4? I4?H8F B9 G;8 HA>ABJA C4E4@8G8EF 64A E4G;8E 84F<?L 58 8FG<@4G87 <9 < J8 ;4I8 4 FHR6<8AG?L ?4E:8 F4@C?8 B9 6EBFF F86G<BA BE G<@8 F8E<8F B5F8EI4G<BAF BA G;8F8 I4E<45?8F GB 58 78ABG87 5L - , , ! % . 4A7 << <G <F E84FBA45?8 GB 4FFH@8 G;4G G;8 HAB5F8EI87 6B@CBA8AG
(71) 4?G;BH:; 4S86G<A:. - <F ABG FLFG8@4G<64??L E8?4G87 J<G; G;8 I4E<45?8F , , /;8A J8 64?? G;8 E8:E8FFBEF 8KB:8ABHF J<G; E8FC86G GB
(72) <A @B78?
(73)
(74) .H6; 6BA7<G<BAF 64A B9G8A 84F<?L 58 6E84G87 9BE ?45BE4GBEL 8KC8E<@8AGF 5HG 47BCG<A: G;8@ J;8A B5F8EI4G<BA4? 74G4 4E8 4A4?LM87 <F .
(75) B9G8A 7BH5G9H?
(76) /B @4>8 4FFH@CG<BA << F?<:;G?L @BE8 E84?<FG<6 <@4:<A8 G;4G 4@BA:FG G;8 946GBEF <A
(77) G;8E8 @4L <A 946G 58 FB@8 J;<6; F;BJ ?<A84E 6B;8E8A68 J<G; BA8 BE @BE8 B9 G;8 E8:E8FFBEF
(78) !B6HFF<A: BA G;8 F<@C?8FG CBFF<5?8 64F8 J8 6BH?7 ;4I8
(79) ,
(80) .
(81) . J<G; J;<?8
(82) <F ABJ 4FFH@87 GB 58 ABG FLFG8@4G<64??L E8?4G87 J<G; , , . /;8A , <F AB ?BA:8E 8KB:8ABHF 5HG 8A7B:8ABHF J<G; E8FC86G GB
(83) <A
(84)
(85) #BJ8I8E. FH5FG<GHG<A:
(86) <A
(87) @4>8F 6?84E G;4G , , 4E8 FG<?? 4?? 8KB:8ABHF J<G; E8FC86G. GB
(88) FB HF<A: G;8 G86;A<DH8 GB 4A4?LM8
(89) J;<6; CE8FHCCBF8F 4?? E8:E8FFBEF GB 58 8KB:8ABHF J<?? 46GH4??L L<8?7 8FG<@4G8F B9 G;8 C4E4@8G8EF J;8E8 9BE " .
(90) . $9 BA8 J4AGF GB HF8 G;8 @B78? 9BE 9BE864FG<A: G;<F 4HGB@4G<6 6BEE86G<BA 9BE A8:?86G87 FLFG8@4G<6F F88@F I8EL J8?6B@8
(91) #BJ8I8E J;8A
(92) ;4F GB F8EI8 4 64HF4? 4A4?LF<F G;8A G;8 CHECBF8 @4L 58 GB <78AG<9L <AFG847 B9 $78AG<9L<A: JBH?7 58 84F<8FG <9 BA8 6BH?7 4H:@8AG G;8 @B78? J<G; G;8 8KC?4A4GBEL I4E<45?8F G;4G 4E8 6BEE8?4G87 J<G; 4?E847L <A6?H787 I4E<45?8F
(93) $A 64F8 G;8F8 I4E<45?8F 4E8 ABG 9H??L >ABJA BE F<@C?L ABG 4I4<?45?8 <78AG<N64G<BA B9 6BH?7 4?FB 58 46;<8I87 4F 9B??BJF
(94) .HCCBF8 G;4G <G <F CBFF<5?8 GB @B78? I4E<45?8 , 466BE7<A: GB , , , . . .
(95) . J;8E8 4A7 G;8 I4E<45?8F , , . . J;<6; F;BH?7 58 @HGH4??L ?<A84E?L. <A78C8A78AG 4E8 4?? HAE8?4G87 J<G;. J;<?8 . . 4E8 ABG FLFG8@4G<64??L E8?4G87 J<G;.
(96) 8<G;8E
(97) /;8 ?4GG8E @84AF G;4G . . 4E8 I4?<7?L 8K6?H787 9EB@
(98)
(99) /;HF <G <F =HFG G;8 6B@CBA8AG 9EB@ , J;<6; <F E8?4G87 J<G;
(100) ?G;BH:; G;8 I4E<45?8F . . 7B ABG ;4I8 4 7<E86G 8S86G BA - G;BF8 9BE J;<6; " 7B ;4I8 4A <A7<E86G 8S86G BA - I<4 , . )BJ 78NA<A: , , J8 64A E8JE<G8
(101) 4F - , , J<G;
(102) .
(103) . .<A68 G;8 I4E<45?8F , , , 4E8 4?? HAE8?4G87 J<G; 8FG<@4G<BA B9 G;8<E 6B8R6<8AGF. <A6?H7<A: JBH?7 58 I<45?8 <9 , 6BH?7 58 B5F8EI87
(104) /;8 6B8R6<8AGF B9
(105) 58<A: HA>ABJA G;<F <F ABG G;8 64F8
(106) #BJ8I8E J8 64A 8FG<@4G8
(107) 4A7 64?6H?4G8 , , , . . .
(108) 4A7 A8KG 8FG<@4G8 - , , J;8E8
(109) , , .
(110) . /;8 4CCEBK<@4G<BA B9 , <A
(111) 5L , <A
(112) JBE>F BA?L J8?? J;8A G;8 F4@C?8 <F E84??L ?4E:8 4A7 G;8E89BE8 G;8 :8G E84FBA45?L 6?BF8 GB G;8 9BE " L<8?7<A: , , GB 58 6?BF8 GB. /;8 8FG<@4G<BA B9
(113) GB B5G4<A , <F 64??87 G;8 NEFG FG4:8 E8:E8FF<BA 4A7 G;4G B9.
(114) G;8 F86BA7 FG4:8 E8:E8FF<BA
(115) /;8 G86;A<DH8 4CC?L<A: 5BG; <F G;8E89BE8 64??87 GJB FG4:8 ?84FG FDH4E8F /.'.
(116) /;8 I4E<45?8F . . 4E8 64??87 G;8 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF. J;8E84F G;8 8KB:8ABHF E8:E8FFBEF B9
(117) <A6?H7<A: G;8 <AG8E68CG 4E8 64??87 G;8 <AG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF
(118) .B <A G;8 FC86<4? 64F8 J;8E8 G;8 E<:;G ;4A7 F<78 B9
(119) 6BAG4<AF BA?L BA8 B9 G;8 E8:E8FFBEF G;8 GBG4? AH@58E B9 <AFGEH@8AGF <F $9 G;8A <F =HFG <78AG<N87 4A7 BI8E <78AG<N87 J;8A *A?L 9BE B9 G;8 I4E<45?8F . .. <G 64A 58 G8FG87 FG4G<FG<64??L J;8G;8E G;8L 4E8 I4?<7?L 8K6?H787 9EB@
(120) 4FFH@<A: G;4G G;8 E8@4<A<A: BA8 ;4F 588A I4?<7?L 8K6?H787
(121) /;8E89BE8 BA8 B9 G;8 ;4A7<64CF B9 /.'. <F G;4G <G <F 54F87 BA 4A 4FFH@CG<BA J;<6; F<@C?L ;4F GB 58 47BCG87 BA BG;8E G;4A FG4G<FG<64? :EBHA7F
(122) ABG;8E ;4A7<64C 64A 58 G;4G G;8 =B<AG 6BAGE<5HG<BA B9 G;8 I4E<45?8F . . GB G;8 78F6E<CG<BA B9 , 477<G<BA4? GB G;4G B9 , , @4L 58 FB ?<@<G87. G;4G , <F 4?@BFG ?<A84E?L 78C8A78AG J<G; , , J;<6; ?847F GB CBBE CE86<F<BA <A G;8 8FG<@4G<BA B9
(123)
(124) $A G;4G 64F8 J8 64?? G;8 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF J84>
(125) C4EG 9EB@ ABG 8KC?<6<G?L <A6BECBE4G<A: 64HF4? I4E<45?8F <A 4 @B78? ?<>8
(126) J;<6; :<I8F E<F8 GB 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 E8:E8FFBEF J;<6; 4E8 6BEE8?4G87 J<G; G;8 8K6?H787 E8:E8FFBEF. G;8E8 4E8 GJB BG;8E F<GH4G<BAF J;<6; J<?? :<I8 E<F8 GB 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 E8:E8FFBEF A4@8?L HF<A: CEBK<8F 4A7 F<@H?G4A8<GL
(127) 2;8A
(128) ;4F GEH?L 8KB:8ABHF E8:E8FFBEF 5HG , ;4F ABG 588A B5F8EI87 4A7 <F G;8E89BE8 E8C?4687 5L 4 CEBKL I4E<45?8 , J;8E8 , , * G;8A J8 B5G4<A - , , J<G;
(129) *.
(130) . $A G;<F 8DH4G<BA , <F 8A7B:8ABHF J<G; E8FC86G GB 5864HF8 , 4A7 4E8 5BG; 78G8E@<A87 5L * <9 14E<45?8 , <F G;8 BA?L 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE CEBI<787 G;8 CEBKL 8EEBE. * <F HAE8?4G87 J<G; , , . $A 64F8 B9 F<@H?G4A8<GL A8KG GB G;8 64HF4? @B78?
(131) 9BE - <G <F G;8 64F8 G;4G G;8 64HF4? @B78? 9BE 9BE <AFG4A68 , <F :<I8A 5L , - , .
(132) .
(133) J;8E8 J8 ?84I8 @BFG B9 <GF 8KC?4A4GBEL I4E<45?8F <@C?<6<G
(134) #8A68 I4E<45?8F - 4A7 , 4E8 6;4E46G8E<M87 5L E86<CEB64? 64HF4?<GL 8KCE8FF87 G;EBH:; F<@H?G4A8BHF 8DH4G<BAF
(135) .H5 FG<GHG<BA B9
(136) <A
(137) L<8?7F , , J<G;
(138) .
(139) . 9EB@ J;<6; <G <F B5I<BHF G;4G , <F 4:4<A E8?4G87 J<G;
(140) CEBI<787 . /;8 45BI8 64A 58 :8A8E4?<M87 FH6; G;4G 4AL 8KC?4A4GBEL I4E<45?8 <A 4 64HF4? @B78?. J;<6; <F 6BEE8?4G87 J<G; JEBA:?L 8K6?H787 64HF4? E8:E8FFBEF BE <F 6BEE8?4G87 J<G; CEBKL 8EEBEF B9 BA8 B9 G;8 <A6?H787 8KC?4A4GBE<8F BE <F <A <GF GHEA 64HF4??L 78C8A78AG BA - <F 8A7B:8ABHF
(141) $9 G;<F <F G;8 64F8 9BE B9 G;8 8KC?4A4GBEL I4E<45?8F G;8A 4G ?84FG. 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF 4E8 E8DH<E87 GB <78AG<9L 4?? G;8 6B8R6<8AGF B9 G;<F E8?4G<BA. F;<C
(142) !EB@ 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF G;8 I4?<7<GL B9 BA?L 64A 58 G8FG87. FG4G<FG<64??L <A8I<G45?L 47BCG<A: G;8 I4?<7<GL B9 <AFGEH@8AGF
(143) 0F<A: G;8 @8G;B7B?B:L. F>8G6;87 45BI8 <F B9G8A 477E8FF87 4F 4 DH4F< 8KC8E<@8AG4? G86;A<DH8
(144) FGEBA: 64F8 9BE 9B??BJ<A: DH4F< 8KC8E<@8AG4? 4CCEB46;8F <A 8AI<EBA@8AG4? ;84?G; FGH7<8F <F 8KCE8FF87 5L B@<A<6< "E88AFGBA8 4A7 .HAFG8<A
(145) /;8 6B@C?<64G<BA B9 8KC?4A4GBEL I4E<45?8F GB 58 8A7B:8ABHF E4G;8E G;4A 8KB:8ABHF 7H8 GB B@<GG87 8KC?4A4GBE<8F BE HF<A: CEBK<8F <F 4?FB B9G8A 477E8FF87 4F 6BA9BHA7<A: F88 9BE <AFG4A68 $@58AF
(146) E868AG ;<FGBE<64? BI8EI<8J BA 4CCEB46;8F G46>?<A: 6BA9BHA7<A: <A 64HF4? 8AI<EBA@8AG4? ;84?G; FGH7<8F <F <A7
(147) /;4G HF<A: <AFGEH @8AG4? I4E<45?8F @4L ?847 GB CBBE <A98E8A68 J;8A <AFGEH@8AGF 4E8 8<G;8E <AI4?<7 BE J84> ;4F GE<::8E87 4 ?BG B9 E8F84E6; <A 86BAB@8GE<6 G;8BEL BI8E G;8 ?4FG 786478F F88 9BE <A FG4A68 G;8 BI8EI<8JF <A (HEE4L 4A7 A7E8JF .GB6> 4A7 .HA
(148) /;<F ;4F 5EBH:;G G86;A<DH8F GB 7<F6?BF8 J84>A8FF B9 <AFGEH@8AGF 4A7 GB 474CG 6BAN78A68 E8:<BAF FH6; G;4G G;8L 64A FG<?? 6?4<@ CEBC8E 6BI8E4:8 CEB545<?<GL J;8A <AFGEH@8AGF 4E8 J84>
(149) #BJ8I8E J;8A <AFGEH@8AGF 4E8 J84> FH6; 6BAN78A68 E8:<BAF 4E8 I8EL J<78
(150) (BE8BI8E. 4F 8KC?4<A87 45BI8 E<:BEBHF FG4G<FG<64? 8I<78A68 BA <AFGEH@8AG I4?<7<GL <F <??HF<BA4EL
(151) /;8E89BE8 E868AG?L 4GG8@CGF ;4I8 588A @478 GB 78I8?BC 4 G86;A<DH8 J;<6; 4IB<7F HF<A: <AFGEH@8AGF F88 &<I<8G 5
(152). ' # ! .. 8FG<@4G87 8DH4G<BAF J;8E8 8<G;8E G;8 CB??HG<BA ?8I8? +B??HG<BA .G4A74E7F $A78K <F G;8 E8:E8FF4A7 BE BA8 B9 G;E88 7<S8E8AG ;84?G; <A7<64GBEF " 58<A: CB?L6?<A<6 4GG8A74A68F 9BE 46HG8 HCC8E E8FC<E4GBEL GE46G <A986G<BAF " 46HG8 .
(153) 6BA=HA6G<I<G<F <
(154) 8
(155) <AO4@@4G<BA B9 G;8 HCC8E G<FFH8 B9 G;8 8L8 " 4A7 9BE 6;<6>8ACBK "
(156) /;8L 8@C?BL87 J88>?L 74G4 9EB@ %4AH4EL HAG<? %HA8
(157) (BFG B9 G;8 I4E<45?8F G;4G G;8L HF87 ;4I8 588A 6BAFGEH6G87 5L 4I8E4:<A: 74<?L 74G4 FB@8G<@8F @84FHE87 =HFG 4G 4 C4EG<6H?4E ;BHE BE 5L 4::E8:4G<A: BI8E 74LF 4A7 BE 7<S8E8AG ?B64G<BAF
(158) /;8F8 74G4 4A7 4 .G4G4 7B N?8 64A 58 7BJA?B4787 9EB@ G;8 J85F<G8
(159) L *E7<A4EL '84FG .DH4E8F *'. .. 8FG<@4G8 G;8 NEFG FG4:8 8DH4G<BA .
(160) + .
(161) . 4A7 A8KG HF87 G;<F GB B5G4<A /JB .G4:8 '84FG .DH4E8F /.'. 8FG<@4G8F 9BE G;8 G;E88 F86BA7 FG4:8 8DH4G<BAF " . .
(162) .
(163) . .B +B??HG<BA .G4A74E7F $A78K <F FHCCBF87 GB 58 G;8 BA8 4A7 BA?L 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE <A
(164)
(165) !BE 4 CE86<F8 78NA<G<BA B9 4?? G;8<E I4E<45?8F J8 E898E GB ..
(166) 78ABG8F !<E8 -47<4G<I8 +BJ8E <A $A7BA8F<4 @84FHE87 5L F4G8??<G8
(167) !BE G;8 BG;8E I4E<45?8F J8 ;4I8 6B@C46G<N87 G;8<E ABG4G<BA #8E8 78ABG8F % FC887 <A .<A:4CBE8 <F G;8 7H@@L I4E<45?8 GB 466BHAG 9BE G;8 <A6BECBE4G<BA B9 F@4??8E C4E G<6H?4G8 @4GG8E +(
(168) <A G;8 78NA<G<BA B9 F<A68 CE<? 78ABG8F . <F 4 I86GBE B9 %" I4E<45?8F <A6?H7<A: E4<A94?? G8@C8E4GHE8 @84A @4K<@H@ 4A7 @<A<@H@ 4A7 J<A7 FC887 @84A 4A7 @4K<@H@ 4?? @84FHE87 A84E G;8 68AG8E B9 .<A:4CBE8 4A7 <F 4 I86GBE 6BAG4<A<A: 4A <AG8E68CG @BAG; 7H@@<8F 4A7 L84E 7H@@<8F =HFG L84E 7H@@<8F J;8A " 5864HF8 B9 98J8E 4I4<?45?8 B5F8EI4G<BAF
(169) 6BAGEB?F 9BE F84FBA4? C4GG8EAF 4A7 9BE FC86<N6 NK87 L84E 8S86GF
(170) '<>8 .. J8 6BAF<78E E8F64?87 I4E<45?8F 9BE 4A7 4?? FH6; G;4G G;8<E F4@C?8 FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA <F
(171) )BG8 G;4G J8 HF8 4 7<S8E8AG ABG4G<BA 9BE G;8 6B8R6<8AGF 4A7 G;8 7<FGHE54A68 G8E@F B9 5BG; 8DH4G<BAF
(172) DH4G<BA <A .. <A6BEE86G?L @<FF8F E8:E8FFBE J;<6; 6BAGEB?F 9BE :8A8E4? ;84?G; GE8A7F <A G;8 8KC?4A4G<BAF B9 I4E<45?8F 9BE " $G F;BH?7 58 <A6?H787 <A G;8 NEFG FG4:8 8DH4G<BA
(173) F<@C?L 5864HF8 <G <F 4A 8KB:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE <A
(174) ?<>8 G;8 I4E<45?8F <A I86GBEF 4A7 4E8
(175) 28 9BHA7 BHG G;BH:; G;4G .. GBB @HFG <A 946G ;4I8 <A6?H787 6BEE86G?L <A G;8 F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF <A 4?? E8:E8FF<BA E8FH?GF E8CBEG87 <A G;8<E 4EG<6?8
(176) #BJ8I8E G;8L 7B ABG J;8A 8FG<@4G<A: 4A7 G;8 8DH4G<BA 9BE <A G;8 .G4G4 7B N?8 G;4G G;8L CEBI<78
(177) .. 4A4?LM8 G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 9BE CE<@4E<?L 4F . 4 6;86> BA J;8G;8E HA?<>8 4A7 J<?? 58 <AF<:A<N64AG 5864HF8 ;4M8 <F ABG FHCCBF87 GB ;4I8 4A 8S86G BA G;8 CE8I4?8A68 B9 6;<6>8ACBK
(178) .
(179) $A 946G .. 7B ABG HF8
(180) =HFG F<@C?L 4F 4 NEFG FG4:8 E8:E8FF<BA GB B5G4<A NGG87 I4?H8F BA G;8 54F<F B9 4?? 4I4<?45?8 <AFGEH@8AG4? I4E<45?8F < G;8 8KB:8ABHF E8:E8F. FBEF 4A7 <A6?H787 <A
(181) 4A7 << FB@8 9HEG;8E 8KC?4A4GBE<8F B9 8K6?H787 ;BC89H??L 6BEE86G?L 9EB@
(182) 58<A: 4A7 /;8L 4?FB <AG8E. CE8G
(183) 4F 4 64HF4? E8:E8FF<BA @B78? 9BE A7 F<A68 G;8L 8FG<@4G87 <G 5L *'. G;8L 4CC4E8AG?L 4FFH@8 G;4G
(184) <F FC86<N87 FH6; G;4G ABA8 B9 <GF E8:E8FFBEF <F 8A7B:8ABHF
(185) 2BH?7 G;4G E84??L 58 G;8 64F8 9BE /;4G 78C8A7F BA F88@F 8I<78AG
(186) #BJ8I8E 6BH?7 4G G;8 F4@8 G<@8 <A $A7BA8F<4 78C8A7 BA <A .<A:4CBE8 /;<F. <F B9 6BHEF8 J;4G .<A:4CBE8 F;BH?7 FGE<I8 9BE $G JBH?7 58 E84?<GL J;8A 4F FBBA 4F E846;8F 6E<G<64? ?8I8?F 4 @8FF4:8 9EB@ .<A:4CBE8 GB $A7BA8F<4 JBH?7 FHR68 GB ;4I8 FHR6<8AG NE8F 8KG<A:H<F;87 5L $A7BA8F<4 <A BE78E GB ?BJ8E <A .<A:4CBE8
(187) *5I<BHF?L. FH6; E86<CEB64? 64HF4?<GL 7B8F ABG F88@ @4A<98FG L8G
(188) #BJ8I8E <G 7B8F F88@ 6?84E G;4G G;8 I4E<45?8 4F 6BAFGEH6G87 5L .. <F =HFG 4 CEBKL B9 G;8 E47<4G<I8 CBJ8E E84??L E8?8I4AG 9BE ;4M8 <A .<A:4CBE8
(189) .. GBB> 9BE E47<4G<I8 CBJ8E <AG8:E4G87 BI8E 4?? $A7BA8F<4A ?4G<GH78F 4A7 ?BA:<GH78F
(190) *5I<BHF?L G;BH:; 4?? G;8F8 <A7<I<7H4? $A7BA8F<4A ;BGFCBGF F;BH?7 ;4I8 588A J8<:;G87 <A FB@8 J4L BE 4ABG;8E 5L 946GBEF <A6?H7<A: G;8<E 7<FG4A68 GB .<A:4CBE8 4A7 G;8 46GH4? J<A7 FC887 4A7 J<A7 7<E86G<BA 58GJ88A G;8<E ?B 64G<BA 4A7 .<A:4CBE8
(191) /;<F ABG 58<A: G;8 64F8 J<G; =HFG E898EE<A: GB G;8 J<A7 FC887 <A .<A:4CBE8 4A7 =HFG 6;4E46G8E<M<A: G;8 J84G;8E <A .<A:4CBE8 <G F88@F @BFG ?<>8?L G;4G 8DH4G<BA
(192) 7B8F FHS8E 9EB@ 4 6B@5<A4G<BA B9 @84FHE8@8AG 8EEBEF <A 4A7 B@<GG87 E8?8I4AG E8:E8FFBEF
(193) /;8A
(194) <F ABG 4 CEBC8E E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BA 4A7 <GF *'. 8FG<@4G8F J<?? 58 <A6BAF<FG8AG
(195) (BE8BI8E <GF FH5FG<GHG<BA <AGB
(196) J<?? ABG L<8?7 CEBC8E E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BAF 9BE 8<G;8E
(197) /;<F 64FGF 7BH5GF BA G;8 NEFG 64HF4? 8@C<E<64? NA7<A:F E8CBEG87 <A ..
(198) /;8F8 4E8 54F87 BA *'. 8FG<@4G8F B9 G;8F8 CHG4G<I8 E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BAF 9BE FG4G<A: G;4G BA8 FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA <A6E84F8 <A ?847F GB 4
(199) FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA <A6E84F8 <A 5BG; 4A7 /;4G
(200) 7B8F ABG F88@ FH<G45?8 GB CEBI<78 4 F8E<BHF 64HF4? @B78? 9BE 4CC84EF 4?FB 9EB@ G;8 9B??BJ<A:
(201) !BE :BB7 E84FBAF @4L 58 4FFH@87 8KB:8ABHF <A
(202)
(203) /;4G @4>8F <G 4HGB@4G<64??L BA8 B9 G;8 8KC?4A4GBE<8F <A G;8 E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BA 9BE
(204) #BJ8I8E J;8A BA8 J4AGF GB FC86<9L 4 64HF4? @B78? 9BE BA8 JBH?7 A8I8E G;<A> B9 <A6?H7<A: 4F BA8 B9 <GF E8:E8FFBEF
(205) *G;8EJ<F8 BA8 JBH?7 CHG 9BEJ4E7 G;4G <A .<A:4CBE8 G;8 AH@58E B9 7<4EE;84 C4G<8AGF <F BA8 B9 G;8 78G8E@<A4AGF B9 <GF 4<E CB??HG<BA ?8I8?F. J;<6; F88@F ;<?4E<BHF
(206) )8I8EG;8?8FF G;8 6B8R6<8AG B9 ;4F & I4?H8F 4A7 <A G;8 F4@C?8F B9 4A7 B5F8EI4G<BAF E8FC86G<I8?L
(207) . FC86<4??L G;8 ?4GG8E & I4?H8 F88@F.
(208) GB <A7<64G8 G;4G 8DH4G<BA
(209) 7B8F ABG E84??L <A6?H78 4?? <GF 7<E86G :8AH<A8 64HF8F L8G. :<I<A: E<F8 GB 8FG<@4G<BA 5<4F
(210) A B5I<BHF 64A7<74G8 GB <@CEBI8 G;8 NG B9 8DH4G<BA
(211) F88@F G;8 <AG8E46G<BA I4E<45?8 /;8 <A6?HF<BA B9 =HFG 4??BJF 9BE 4 F;<9G <A G;8 <AG8E68CG B9. G;8 8DH4G<BA 7H8 GB G;8 6;4A:8 <A 78NA<G<BA B9 $G 7B8F ABG F88@ HA?<>8?L G;4G 4?FB G;8 F?BC8 8S86G B9 BA J<?? 58 4S86G87 49G8E ;4F 588A E878NA87 4A7 <A6?H78F I8EL NA8 C4EG<6H?4G8 @4GG8E 4F J8??
(212) /;4G JBH?7 4?FB FH::8FG GB HF8 4F 4A 8KGE4 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AG 9BE 8DH4G<BA
(213)
(214). DH4G<BA <A .. <F <AI4E<4AG J<G;. E8FC86G GB G;8 6;4A:8 <A 78NA<G<BA B9 J;8E84F <G <F F4<7 G;4G I8EL NA8 C4EG<6H?4G8 @4GG8E ;4F FC86<4? A8:4G<I8 8S86GF BA ;84?G;
(215) /;8E89BE8 <G 7B8F ABG F88@ HA?<>8?L G;4G 4A7 F;BH?7 5BG; 58 <A6?H787 4F E8:E8FFBEF <A
(216)
(217) /;8A . JBH?7 AB ?BA:8E 58 I4?<7?L 8K6?H787 9EB@
(218) 4A7 684F8F GB 58 4A 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AG. J;8E84F JBH?7 8FG45?<F; 4A 8KGE4 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE
(219). 38G 4ABG;8E <FFH8 E8:4E7<A: G;8 FC86<N64G<BAF B9
(220) 4A7
(221) <F G;8<E FG4G<6 A4GHE8
(222). ?? 8S86GF 4E8 @B78?87 4F <AFG4AG4A8BHF J;8E84F BA8 JBH?7 8KC86G G;4G <G G4>8F G<@8 589BE8 G;8 8K;4HFG B9 NE8F <A $A7BA8F<4 4S86GF CB??HG<BA ?8I8?F <A .<A:4CBE8
(223) '<>8J<F8. <G @4L G4>8 G<@8 589BE8 ;4M4E7BHF CB??HG<BA ?8I8?F ;4I8 46GH4??L 64HF87 4<?@8AGF J;<6; 9BE68 C4G<8AGF GB I<F<G 6?<A<6F
(224) 8?4LF GB I<F<G 6?<A<6F F88@ 4?FB ?<>8?L 5864HF8 G;8 .<A:4 CBE84A 4HG;BE<G<8F 47I<F8 <GF 6<G<M8AF 8FC86<4??L G;8 @BE8 IH?A8E45?8 GB FG4L <A7BBEF 4F @H6; 4F CBFF<5?8 4F ?BA: 4F CB??HG<BA ?8I8?F 4E8 ;<:;
(225) *9 6BHEF8 G;8 4::E8:4G<BA B9 G;8 74G4 GB J88>?L N:HE8F @4L 466B@@B74G8 G;8F8 78?4L <FFH8F 4G ?84FG C4EG?L
(226) #BJ8I8E <G F88@F JBEG;J;<?8 GB 8K4@<A8 G;8 F<:A<N64A68 B9 ?4::87 E8:E8FFBEF J;8A 47787 GB 5BG; @B78? FC86<N64G<BAF
(227) 4A7
(228) 4?FB <A G;8 ?<:;G B9 G;8 E8F<7H4? F8E<4? 6BEE8?4G<BA E8CBEG87 5L ..
(229) )BG8 G;4G G;8 )8J8L 28FG EB5HFG<N64G<BA 5L .. B9 FG4A74E7 8EEBEF 7B8F ABG 6HE8 4AL B@<FF<BAF B9 E8?8I4AG ?4::87 E8:E8FFBEF 5864HF8 FH6; B@<FF<BAF ?847 GB <A6BAF<FG8A6L B9 G;8 6B8R6<8AG 8FG<@4G8F :<I8A G;8<E ?<>8?L 6BEE8?4G<BA J<G; <A6?H787 E8:E8FFBEF
(230) !EB@ G;8 45BI8 J8 6BA6?H78 G;4G 8DH4G<BA <A .. <F ABG 4 F4G<F946GBEL FGEH6GHE4? 9BE@ 8DH4G<BA 4A7 <F AB E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BA 8<G;8E 7H8 GB B@<GG87 4A7 BE CEBK<87 8KC?4A4GBE<8F
(231) /B E8C4<E <G G;8 6B??86G<BA B9 @BE8 74G4 F88@F HA4IB<745?8 4G ?84FG BA J84G;8E E4<A J<A7 7<E86G<BA J<A7 FC887 <A 4E84F 4G $A7BA8F<4A ;BGFCBGF 4A7 4G <AG8E@87<4G8 ?B64G<BAF 5L J;<6; G;8 ;4M8 E846;8F .<A:4CBE8
(232) B??86G<A: G;8F8 74G4 <F 58LBA7 G;8 CHECBF8 B9 G;<F E8C?<64G<BA FGH7L
(233) ?G;BH:; 9EB@ G;8 6HEE8AG 74G4 F8G AB E87H687 9BE@ 8DH4G<BA 9BE G;8 CB??HG<BA ?8I8? .
(234) 64A 58 8FG<@4G87 4A7 G;8E89BE8 ABG 9BE G;8 ;84?G; <A7<64GBEF 8<G;8E G;<F 7B8F ABG CE86?H78 G;8 4A4?LF<F B9 FGEH6GHE4? 64HF4? @B78?F 9BE G;8 ;84?G; <A7<64GBEF
(235) !BE G;8<E 8FG<@4G<BA 5L /.'. 4 6B@C?8G8?L F4G<F9L<A: FC86<N64G<BA B9
(236) <F E8DH<E87 5HG ABG 9BE
(237) =HFG 4 FHR6<8AG AH@58E B9 FHR6<8AG?L FGEBA: 8KG8EA4? I4?<7 <AFGEH@8AGF J<?? FHR68
(238) .B 58?BJ J8 F;4?? 9B6HF BA 4A4?LM<A: J;8G;8E 8DH4G<BA B9 .. <F 4 F4G<F9L<A: FGEH6GHE4? @B78? 9BE G;8 ;84?G; I4E<45?8F
(239) /;8 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 <A
(240) 6BH?7 58 7H8 GB 4 6B@5<A4G<BA B9 G;8 6BAF8DH8A68F B9 F<@H?G4A8<GL HF<A: CEBKL I4E<45?8F 4A7 6BA9BHA78EF JEBA:?L B@<GG87 E8?8I4AG 8K C?4A4GBE<8F
(241) 28 7<F6HFF 846; <A GHEA
(242) /;8E8 JBH?7 58 E86<CEB64? 64HF4?<GL @84A<A: G;4G A8KG GB ;84?G; <A7<64GBEF 58<A: 64HF87 5L G;8 ;84?G; I4E<45?8F ;4I8 4A 8S86G BA 4F J8?? J;8A G;8 .<A:4CBE84A 4HG;BE<G<8F 4F FBBA 4F <G ABG<68F 6E<G<64? ;84?G; 6BA7<G<BAF 6BH?7 FH668FF9H??L 6BAI<A68 BE 9BE68 ?B64? <A7HFGEL 4A7 @BGBE<FGF GB E87H68 8K;4HFG 4A7 $A7BA8F<4 GB 6B@54G G;8 NE8F
(243) /;<F @4L 58 G;8 64F8 GB 4 I8EL ?<@<G87 78:E88 4A7 G;8E89BE8 <G F88@F J<F8 GB 4??BJ 9BE 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 (84FHE8@8AG BE CEBKL 8EEBEF 64??87 FBEG<A: <A G;8 8AI<EBA@8AG4? ?<G8E4GHE8 <A F88@F ?8FF ?<>8?L
(244) <F B5G4<A87 5L 4I8E4:<A: G;8 CB??HG<BA @84FHE8@8AGF 4G NI8 ?B64G<BAF FCE847 BI8E G;8 E8?4G<I8?L F@4?? .<A:4CBE8 <F?4A7 4A7 G;8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A G;8F8 @84FHE8@8AGF <F 8KGE8@8?L ;<:; 4F .. E8CBEG
(245) #BJ8I8E @4L 4?FB 58 8A7B:8ABHF 7H8 GB B@<GG87 E8?8I4AG 8KC?4A4GBE<8F
(246) J;<6; <F 6BEE8?4G87 J<G; @4L C?4L 4 7<E86G EB?8 <A G;8 CEBC8E 64HF4? FC86<N64G<BA B9
(247) 4A7 CBFF<5?L GBB <A <AG8E46G<BA G8E@F
(248) /;8 8KB:8ABHF 6BAGEB?F <A
(249) 4E8 FHCCBF87 GB FHCCE8FF 4AL 9HEG;8E CEB5?8@F E8:4E7 <A: B@<GG87 E8:E8FFBEF G;BH:; G;8 <AI8FG<:4G<BA B9 CBFF<5?L JEBA:?L 8K6?H787 ?4::87 I4E<45?8F <F 68EG4<A?L 64??87 9BE
(250) 0F<A: G;8 F4@8 74G4 4A7 @8G;B7B?B:L 4F .. J8 F;4?? 8K4@<A8 <A .86G<BA
(251) J;8G;8E G;8<E 8DH4G<BA F88@F GB FHS8E 9EB@ HF<A: <AI4?<7 <AFGEH@8AGF 4A7 JEBA:?L B@<GG87 E8:E8FFBEF
(252) )8KG <A .86G<BA
(253) J8 J<?? 6BA9EBAG G;8F8 NA7<A:F J<G; 4 ABI8? 4A7 L8G ABAFG4A74E7 4CCEB46; <A J;<6; G;8 HF8 B9 <AFGEH@8AGF <F 4IB<787 6B@C?8G8?L
(254) &"" # # $# " $" 28 F;4?? NEFG =HFG 9B6HF BA G;8 64HF4? 8S86GF B9 BA ;84?G; <A7<64GBE /45?8
(255)
(256) CE8F8AGF ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL EB5HFG /.'. 8FG<@4G<BA 4A7 G8FG E8FH?GF J;<6; ;4I8 4?? 588A B5G4<A87 5L G;8 .G4G4 6B@@4A7 <IE8: 4A7 I4E<BHF B9 <GF 4I4<?45?8 BCG<BAF F88 4H@ .6;4S8E 4A7 .G<??@4A
(257) /;8 G45?8 7B8F <A6?H78 =HFG 98J B9 G;8 E8:E8FF<BA 6B8R6<8AGF ABG CE8F8AG87 4E8 G;BF8 4FFB6<4G87 J<G; G;8 I86GBE B9 J84G;8E I4E<45?8F .
(258) 4A7 G;8 @BAG; 4A7 L84E 7H@@<8F J<G; G;8 <AG8E68CG 4?? 6B??86G87 <A I86GBE $A G;8 G45?8 78ABG8F G;8 F4@C?8 F<M8 G;8 AH@58E B9 E8:E8FFBEF G;8 AH@58E B9 <AFGEH@8AGF. G;8 AH@58E B9 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBEF G;8 AH@58E B9 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF 4A7. <F G;8 8FG<@4G8 B9 G;8 7<FGHE54A68 FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA
(259) /45?8
(260)
(261) . /.'. E8FH?GF ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL EB5HFG 9BE . . (4=BE E8:E8FFBEF
(262)
(263)
(264)
(265)
(266)
(267)
(268)
(269)
(270)
(271)
(272)
(273)
(274)
(275)
(276)
(277)
(278)
(279)
(280)
(281) .
(282)
(283)
(284)
(285)
(286)
(287)
(288)
(289) .
(290)
(291) . .
(292)
(293)
(294)
(295) .
(296)
(297)
(298)
(299) .
(300)
(301)
(302)
(303) .
(304)
(305) .
(306)
(307) .
(308)
(309) KG8EA4? <AFGE
(310) (& (& (& /8FGF & I4?H8 .
(311)
(312)
(313)
(314)
(315) .
(316)
(317)
(318)
(319)
(320) #8G8EBF>
(321)
(322)
(323)
(324)
(325)
(326) -8F8G
(327)
(328)
(329)
(330)
(331) *I8E <7
(332) EFGE
(333)
(334)
(335) .
(336)
(337) KB:8A8<GL
(338)
(339)
(340)
(341)
(342) 284> $78AG
(343)
(344)
(345)
(346)
(347)
(348) .
(349)
(350)
(351)
(352)
(353) . B?H@A B9 /45?8
(354)
(355) 6BA9BE@F GB G;8 FC86<N64G<BA CE898EE87 5L .. J;B 6BA6?H78 G;4G J<G; 4 ;<:; ?8I8? B9 F<:A<N64A68 <A6E84F8F <@@87<4G8?L 5L
(356) FG4A74E7 8EEBEF J;8A <A6E84F8F 5L BA8 FG4A74E7 8EEBE
(357) /;8L 6?4<@ FHCCBEG 9BE G;<F 6BA6?HF<BA 5864HF8 G;8 G;E88 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF 4E8 9BHA7 GB 58 E84FBA45?L FGEBA:. .
(358) J;<6; J8 8A7BEF8 BA G;8 54F<F B9 G;8 &?8<58E:8A +44C I4?H8 J;<6; <F 4CCEBCE<4G8 9BE @B78?F 54F87 BA G<@8 F8E<8F
(359) A7 5864HF8 G;8L E8CBEG 4 .4E:4A G8FG 9BE G;8 GJB BI8E<78AG<9L<A: E8FGE<6G<BAF J<G; 4 & I4?H8 B9
(360)
(361) CC4E8AG?L <GF F@4?? I4?H8 7B8F ABG JBEEL ..
(362) !BE BI8E<78AG<9L<A: E8FGE<6G<BAF J8 64?6H?4G87 G;8 ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL EB5HFG #4AF8A G8FG 4A7 NA7 4 E84??L JBEEL<A: & I4?H8 B9
(363)
(364) 28 4?FB 8K4@<A87 G8FGF 9BE F8E<4? 6BEE8?4G<BA B9 NEFG . 4A7 9BHEG; . BE78E 4A7 4 -8F8G G8FG BA 9HA6G<BA4? 9BE@ G;8 BA8 78:E88 B9 9E887B@ I4E<4AG J;<6; 477F FDH4E87 BCG<@4? 9BE864FGF B9 G;8 78C8A78AG I4E<45?8 GB G;8 @B78?
(365) /;8L 4?? FGEBA:?L E8=86G G;8 FC86<N64G<BA 6;BF8A 5L ..
(366) "<I8A G;8F8 CEB5?8@F <AG8ECE8G4G<BA B9 G;8 ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL G8FG G;8 I4E<4AG J;<6; E8:E8FF8F G;8 FDH4E87 E8F<7H4?F BA 4?? <AFGEH@8AGF 4A7 G;8<E FDH4E8F <F CE8@4GHE8. 5HG <GF ?BJ & I4?H8 7B8F 8A6BHE4:8 GB 6BAG<AH8 HF<A: ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL EB5HFG FG4A74E7 8EEBEF
(367) ?FB 9BE G;<F 6?84E?L @<FFC86<N87 @B78? G;8 ;<:; & I4?H8 B9 G;8 8KB:8A8<GL G8FG J;<6; <F 54F87 BA G;8 7<S8E8A68 58GJ88A GJB G8FGF CEBI<78F AB ?<68AF8 GB 786?4E8 GB 58 8KB:8ABHF
(368) )8KG J8 F8G BHG BA 4GG8@CGF GB <@CEBI8 G;8 FGEH6GHE4? @B78? 9BE 4A7 B5G4<A<A: 4 CEBC8E F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AG4? I4E<45?8F
(369) !<EFG J8 8K4@<A8 G;8 7BH5G9H? I4?<7<GL B9 4F 4A 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AG
(370) $A 6B? H@A J8 <A6?H787 <G 4F 4A 8KB:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE 4A7 <G CEBI8F GB 58 F<:A<N64AG FB <A <G F88@F JEBA:?L 8K6?H787
(371) ?G;BH:; ABJ HF<A: <A 4F 4A <AG8EA4? <AFGEH @8AG <@CEBI8F G;8 G8FG B9 G;8 E8@4<A<A: BA8 BI8E<78AG<9L<A: E8FGE<6G<BA G;<F 4H:@8AG87 FC86<N64G<BA <F FG<?? FGEBA:?L E8=86G87 5L G;8 F8E<4? 6BEE8?4G<BA 4A7 E8F8G G8FGF
(372) /;8E89BE8. <A 6B?H@A J8 8K4@<A8 J;8G;8E G;8 6;4A:8 <A 78NA<G<BA B9 4?FB 4S86GF <GF F?BC8 C4E4@8G8E 5L <A6?H7<A: G;8 8A7B:8ABHF <AG8E46G<BA G8E@ /;<F @B78?. <F =HFG <78AG<N87 ;4I<A: 4F @4AL 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBEF 4F 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF 5HG CEBI8F GB 58 46GH4??L I8EL J84>?L <78AG<N87 :<I8A G;8 F@4?? &?8<58E:8A +44C I4?H8
(373) /;<F ?847F GB ?4E:8 FG4A74E7 8EEBEF B9 G;8 6B8R6<8AGF 9BE 4?? G;E88 E8:E8FFBEF 4FFB6<4G87 J<G; 4A7 GB 4A <A6E84F87 8FG<@4G8 B9 $A J8 ;4I8 E8@BI87 E8:E8FFBE 4:4<A 5HG 4<@ GB :8G E<7 B9 G;8 F8E<4?. 6BEE8?4G<BA 5L <A6?H7<A: <A G;8 E8:E8FF<BA G;8 NEFG BE78E ?4:F B9 C4EG<6H?4E 8KC?4A4GBE<8F
(374) !BE B5I<BHF E84FBAF J8 7<7 ABG <A6?H78 ?4:F B9 G;8 E8:E8FFBEF <A G;8 I86GBE 5864HF8 G;4G JBH?7 ?847 GB 8KGE8@8 @H?G<6B??<A84E<GL
(375) 28 4?FB 7<7 ABG <A6?H78 G;8 ?4: B9 7H@@L <GF 8S86G JBH?7 <AIB?I8 G;8 E8@BI4? 9EB@ G;8 F4@C?8 B9 G;8 NEFG J88> <A J;<6; G;8 78NA<G<BA 6;4A:87 J;<6; 64HF8F 7<R6H?G<8F 9BE .G4G4 GB 64?6H?4G8 4A7 <AG8ECE8G FB@8 B9 G;8 G8FG FG4G<FG<6F
(376) G G;8 F4@8 G<@8 J8 47787 G;8 NEFG ?4:F B9 G;8 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF GB G;8 F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF
(377) ?G;BH:; G;8 F8E<4? 6BEE8?4G<BA G8FGF 4E8 ?8FF 6E<G<64? ABJ G;8 .
(378) -8F8G G8FG <F FG<?? ;<:;?L HAF4G<F946GBEL
(379) /;8E89BE8 <A J8 <A6?H787 4?FB G;8 F86BA7 BE78E ?4:F 4A7 ABJ <G <F =HFG G;8 -8F8G G8FG J;<6; <F FG<?? E8=86G<A: G;8 6;BF8A ?<A84E 9HA6G<BA4? 9BE@
(380) $G <F 68EG4<A?L ABG F8?9 8I<78AG G;4G G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A 4A7 F;BH?7 <A G;8 ?BA: EHA 58 ?<A84E
(381) !BE <AFG4A68 J;8A 589BE8 <GF FG4A74E7<M4G<BA J;<6; <AIB?I87 7<I<F<BA 5L
(382) <A6E84F8F 5L GB 8AG8E G;8 HA;84?G;L ?8I8? J;<6; <F E846;87 4G G;8 <A6E84F<A: 8S86G BA 6BH?7 J8?? 58 ?4E:8E G;4A J;8A <G <A6E84F8F 5L J;<?8 FG<?? <A G;8 :BB7 4<E DH4?<GL MBA8 58?BJ
(383) #8A68 F88 4?FB B@<A<6< 8G 4?. C
(384) NEFG 6B?H@A 5BGGB@ ?<A8 G;8E8 <F :BB7 E84FBA GB 8@54E> BA 4 9HA6G<BA4? FC86<N64G<BA J;8E8 G;8 78E<I4G<I8 B9 J<G; E8FC86G GB <F ABG 6BAFG4AG 4F <A ... 5HG <A6E84F<A: J<G; /;<F JBH?7 58 8A45?87 5L <A6?H7<A: G;8 FDH4E8 B9 4F 4 E8:E8FFBE
(385) 864HF8 G;<F JBH?7 5E<A: <A 4 F86BA7 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE <G F88@F @BE8 4GGE46G<I8 GB ;4I8 G;<F 78E<I4G<I8 <A6E84F8 J<G; 8<G;8E BE J<G; /;<F J<?? B66HE <A 4 ?B: ?<A84E BE ?B: ?B: FC86<N64G<BA E8FC86G<I8?L
(386) !<:HE8
(387) (4=BE G<@8 F8E<8F I4E<45?8F 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4. log(H1) log(H2) log(D) log(PSI) PSIch log(FRP). -6 -8 50. 100. 150. 200. 250. 300. week. 89BE8 J8 6BAG<AH8 4CC?L<A: EB5HFG /.'. J8 NEFG <AFC86G BHE @4=BE 74G4 F8E<8F I<FH4??L 4F 78C<6G87 <A !<:HE8
(388)
(389) 28 F88 G;4G F<@C?L @BI87 GB 4 ;<:;8E ?8I8? F<A68 G;8 78NA<G<BA 6;4A:8
(390) 28 4?FB ABG8 9EB@ G;8<E ?B:F G;4G G;8 F8E<8F F;BJ .
(391) FB@8 I4E<4G<BA G;EBH:; G<@8 5HG QE8@4E>45?LQ 4AL 4FFB6<4G<BA J<G; G;8 @H6; @BE8 CEBABHA687 IB?4G<?<GL B9 4A7 <F ABG 8I<78AG 9EB@ G;8 78C<6G87 F8E<8F
(392). /45?8
(393)
(394) . /.'. E8FH?GF ;8G8EBF>874FG<6<GL EB5HFG 9BE $ 4A7 $ $ $ $. (4=BE E8:E8FFBEF $"
(395)
(396) $"
(397)
(398) ". ".
(399)
(400)
(401)
(402)
(403)
(404) $ . $ . $ .
(405)
(406)
(407)
(408)
(409)
(410) $. $. $.
(411)
(412) /8FGF & I4?H8 .
(413) .
(414) #8G8EBF>
(415)
(416) -8F8G
(417) *I8E <7
(418) EFGE
(419)
(420) KB:8A8<GL
(421) 284> $78AG
(422)
(423)
(424) . .
(425)
(426) .
(427)
(428)
(429)
(430) .
(431)
(432) .
(433)
(434)
(435)
(436)
(437)
(438)
(439)
(440)
(441)
(442)
(443)
(444) .
(445)
(446)
(447)
(448)
(449)
(450)
(451)
(452)
(453)
(454)
(455)
(456) .
(457)
(458)
(459)
(460)
(461)
(462)
(463)
(464)
(465)
(466)
(467)
(468) .
(469)
(470)
(471)
(472)
(473)
(474)
(475)
(476) .
(477)
(478)
(479)
(480) .
(481)
(482)
(483)
(484)
(485)
(486) .
(487)
(488)
(489)
(490)
(491)
(492)
(493)
(494)
(495)
(496)
(497)
(498)
(499)
(500)
(501)
(502) . 9G8E FB@8 8KC8E<@8AG4G<BA J8 6;BF8 9BE G;8 ?B: ?<A84E FC86<N64G<BA 9BE G;8 78C8A78AG I4E<45?8 J;<6; <@C?<8F G;8 9BE@ B9 ABA?<A84E<GL 58GJ88A G;8 I4E<45?8F J;8E8 G;8 . NK87 E8:E8FF<BA 6B8R6<8AGF # E8CE8F8AG G;8 CEBCBEG<BA4? 6;4A:8 <A 7H8 GB 4 BA8 HA<G 6;4A:8 <A G;8 # E8:E8FFBE 68G8E<F C4E<5HF
(503) /45?8
(504)
(505) PF NEFG 6B?H@A J<G; E8FH?GF ;4F $ 4F G;8 78C8A78AG I4E<45?8 J<G; <GF NEFG 4A7 F86BA7 ?4: 4F E8:E8FFBEF C?HF G;8 BG;8E E8:E8FFBEF <A B9 /45?8
(506)
(507) J;<?8 FG<?? HF<A: G;8 .
(508) F4@8 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF
(509) /;<F ?847F GB FG4G<FG<64??L F4G<F946GBEL E8FH?GF 4?G;BH:; G;8 & I4?H8 B9 G;8 -8F8G G8FG <F FG<?? 4 5<G F@4??8E G;4A J8 JBH?7 ?<>8
(510) /;8 ?BJ & I4?H8 B9 G;8 8KB:8A8<GL G8FG FHCCBEGF HF<A: /.'. <AFG847 B9 *'.
(511) !EB@ G;8 E8:E8FFBEF ;4I8 4 ) E4G<B 58?BJ BA8 <A 45FB?HG8 I4?H8
(512) (BFG CEB545?L. FB@8 B9 G;8F8 E8:E8FFBEF @4L 46GH4??L 58 E87HA74AG
(513) ?G;BH:; E8@BI<A: FB@8 J<?? L<8?7 6BF@8G<6 <@CEBI8@8AGF J8 7<7 ABG CHEFH8 G;<F EB47
(514) /8FG<A: J;8G;8E G;8 FH@ B9 G;8 G;E88 6B8R6<8AGF B9 ?4:F B9 8DH4?F M8EB <F FGEBA:?L E8=86G87
(515) #8A68 G;<F FHCCBEGF GB 6BA6?H78 G;4G G;8 ?BA: EHA 8S86G B9 J<G; E8FC86G GB J;<6; <F 8FG<@4G87 GB 58
(516)
(517) <F 7<FG<A6G?L CBF<G<I8 GBB
(518) /;8 <@@87<4G8 8S86G B9 4A <A6E84F8 <A 5L BA8 FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA J;<6; <F
(519) BA ;84?G; 6?<A<6 I<F<GF 9BE E8FC<E4GBEL <??A8FF8F <F 8FG<@4G87 GB 58
(520) J<G; 4 E8?4G<I8?L F@4?? FG4A74E7 78I<4G<BA
(521) #8A68 4A7 <A6E84F8 B9 46GH4? 5L <F 8FG<@4G87 GB ?847F GB 4
(522) <A6E84F8 B9 I<F<GF 5L C4G<8AGF GB 4 6?<A<6 <A G;8 F4@8 J88>. 4A7 4A <A6E84F8 B9 <A G;8 ?BA: EHA
(523) /;8 FG4G<6 .. 4A4?LF<F. J;<6; 47BCGF 4 ?<A84E E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A 4A7 FH::8FGF 4A <@@87<4G8 4A7 ABA ?4::<A: 45FB?HG8 <A6E84F8 B9 6?<A<6 I<F<GF B9
(524) 9BE 846; HA<G <A6E84F8 B9 46GH4? .B 9BE 4A <A6E84F8 5L <G FH::8FGF 8KGE4 6?<A<6 I<F<GF
(525). .<A68 <GF 4I8E4:8 ;4F 588A 4G G;4G ?8I8? 4A <A6E84F8 5L <F 5HG <F JBH?7 58 4 ?4E:8E C8E68AG4:8 <A6E84F8 4G 4 ?BJ8E <A<G<4? ?8I8? 4A7 4 F@4??8E BA8 4G 4 ?4E:8E ?8I8?
(526) !BE J8 8KC8E<8A687 7<R6H?G<8F GB NA7 4 F4G<F946GBEL @B78? FC86<N64G<BA HF<A: G;8 /.'. @8G;B7B?B:L
(527) /;8 .. FC86<N64G<BA CEBI87 GB ?46> 7LA4@<6F ;8E8 GBB
(528) /;8 8DH<I4?8AG B9 G;8 E8FH?G 9BE G;8 7LA4@<6 ?<A84E @B78? 9BE <A 6B?H@A B9 /45?8
(529)
(530) <F CE8F8AG87 <A G;8 F86BA7 6B?H@A J<G; E8FH?GF B9 /45?8
(531)
(532)
(533) )BG8 G;4G FB@8 <AFGEH@8AGF F88@ <AI4?<7 4A7 G;8 E8F<7H4?F 4E8 FG<?? F8E<4??L 6BEE8?4G87
(534) )8<G;8E G;8 ?B: ?<A84E ABE G;8 ?B: ?B: @B78? CE8F8AG87 <A G;8 E8@4<A<A: GJB 6B?H@AF 4E8 E84??L F4G<F946GBEL 8<G;8E
(535) *9 6BHEF8 <A G;8 ?B: ?B: @B78? J8 GBB> G;8 ?B: B9 G;8 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF 5HG ABG8 G;4G G;8F8 4CC84E87 GB 58 I8EL J84>
(536) .B G;8 45BI8 /.'. 4A4?LF<F <F 68EG4<A?L HAF4G<F946GBEL 9BE G;8 4A4?LF<F B9 5HG 4?FB G;8 E8FH?GF 9BE E8@4<A 7BH5G9H? F<@C?L 5864HF8 G;8 I4?<7<GL B9 8KG8EA4? <AFGEH@8AGF <F 4?J4LF FC86H?4G<I8 8I8A <9 G;8 G8FG 9BE BI8E<78AG<N64G<BA E8FGE<6G<BAF CEB7H68F 4 ;<:; & I4?H8
(537) #8A68 G;8 B5G4<A87 /.'. 8FG<@4G8F 5BG; B9 G;8 6B8R6<8AGF 4A7 B9 G;8<E FG4A74E7 8EEBEF @4L 58 F8E<BHF?L 5<4F87
(538) *A G;8 BG;8E ;4A7 <G 6BH?7 4?FB 58 G;8 64F8 G;4G G;8 78:E88 B9 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 G;8 E8:E8FFBEF <F <A 946G FB 9HG<?8 G;4G G;8 HF8 B9 /.'. <F <A 946G ABG 64??87 9BE 4A7 *'. JBH?7 FHR68
(539) $A G;8 A8KG FH5F86G<BA J8 J<?? G;8E89BE8 8K4@<A8 G;8 F8AF<G<I<GL B9 .
(540) G;8 /.'. E8FH?GF J<G; E8FC86G GB G;8 CBFF<5?8 78:E88 B9 8A7B:8A8<GL 5L HF<A: E868AG?L 78I8?BC87 <AFGEH@8AG 9E88 @8G;B7F
(541) "#%#& &"" % # $" "#!$ #" A7B:8A8<GL B9 <A @B78?F 9BE 6BH?7 58 7H8 GB F<@H?G4A8<GL 4F J8 4E:H87 45BI8
(542) $A G;4G 64F8 G4><A: <G 9BE :E4AG87 G;4G G;8 8DH<I4?8AGF B9 4A7 <A
(543) 4A7
(544) ;4I8 4A7 G;4G JBH?7 <@C?L GB 58 @<?7?L A8:4G<I8
(545) (84FHE8@8AG 8EEBEF <A F88@ HA?<>8?L 5HG JBH?7 ?847 GB A8:4G<I8 8A7B:8A8<GL GBB
(546) /;8 <A6?HF<BA B9 G;8 @4AL E8:E8FFBEF <A 4A7 4A7 BHE 45HA74AG HF8 B9 ?4::87 E8:E8FFBEF 4E8 4?? @84AG GB 9BE8FG4?? 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 7H8 GB B@<GG87 E8:E8FFBEF
(547) .B J8 F;BH?7 9B6HF BA F<GH4G<BAF J;8E8 G;8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A 4A7 G;8 @B78? 7<FGHE54A68 G8E@ <F 4EBHA7 M8EB J<G; FC86<4? <AG8E8FG <A @<?7?L A8:4G<I8 I4?H8F
(548) !BE G;4G J8 HF8 (4G?45 6B78 9BE G;8 @8G;B7F BA?L I8EL E868AG?L CHG 9BEJ4E7 <A &<I<8G 5
(549) /;8F8 :8A8E4?<M8 G;BF8 9BE 4?@BFG ABE@4??L 7<FGE<5HG87 6EBFF F86G<BA 74G4 CE8F8AG87 <A &<I<8G 4 GB @4>8 G;8@ 4CC?<645?8 GB :8A8E4? G<@8 F8E<8F E8?4G<BAF;<CF FH6; 4F J8 ;4I8 <A G;8 CE8F8AG FGH7L
(550) 28 J<?? =HFG 8K4@<A8 G;8 F8AF<G<I<GL J<G; E8FC86G GB CBFF<5?8 8A7B:8A8<GL B9 /.'. 54F87 <A98E8A68F BA G;8 8S86G B9 BA $ 4F 4FF8FF87 <A G;8 <A <GF BJA 6BAG8KG E84FBA45?L F4G<F946GBEL NEFG 6B?H@A B9 /45?8
(551)
(552)
(553) !<:HE8
(554)
(555) $AFGEH@8AG 9E88 <A98E8A68 E8:4E7<A: G;8 FC86<N64G<BA B9 @B78? 9BE $ 100. Exclusion tests on external instruments in model for lH1. 90 80. 95. 90. P-value in %. 70. P-value in %. Serial Correlation tests in model for lH1. 100. FRP, FRPsp L.FRP, L.FRPsp L2.FRP, L.2FRPsp all 6. 60 50 40 30. 85 1st order 2nd order 3rd order 4th order. 80. 75. 20 70 10 0 -0.4. -0.3. -0.2. -0.1. 0. 0.1. 0.2. 0.3. 65 -0.4. 0.4. r (postulated simultaneity). -0.3. -0.2. -0.1. 0. 0.1. 0.2. 0.3. 0.4. r (postulated simultaneity). 1. 1. /;8 ?89G ;4A7 :E4C; <A !<:HE8
(556)
(557) CE8F8AGF & I4?H8F 9BE 8K6?HF<BA E8FGE<6G<BAF G8FGF. J;8A 4CC?<87 GB G;8 @B78? 9BE $ J;<?8 4FFH@<A: E8:4E7<A: F<@H?G4A8<GL 4 C4EG<6H?4E AH@8E<64? I4?H8 B9 G;8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A 8A7B:8ABHF E8:E8FFBE 4A7 G;8 7<FGHE 54A68 G8E@
(558) /;<F I4?H8 ' <F <A7<64G87 BA G;8 ;BE<MBAG4? 4K<F
(559) !BE ' G;8 @B78? J<G; G;8 84E?<8E 8K6?H787 E8:E8FFBEF ;4F 588A 8FG<@4G87 5L *'. 4A7 9BE ' 5L 4 .
GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN
Mede naar aanleiding van de conflictueuze periode in de haven in de jaren zeventig zijn in de loop van de jaren tachtig bij een aantal bedrijven in de Rotterdamse
De kenmerken van het sociale milieu laten we - voor de eenvoud - in deze analyse dus buiten beschouwing.12 Zes variabe len worden in de analyse opgenomen: het
Bij Inslag leeft de behoefte meer greep op zijn produktie te krijgen. Het rendement van zijn bedrijf staat onder druk en daar bovenop wordt hij ook nog geconfronteerd met
De Belgen en de Nederlanders zien min der dan gemiddeld een preventieve rol voor de nationale overheid, terwijl de Nederlanders méér dan gemiddeld wijzen op de eigen
cludeerd worden dat het al dan niet buitenhuis werken van moeders en het niveau van deze arbeid buitenhuis effecten heeft op de school loopbanen van haar kinderen die
Zij kunnen zich voor de verzilvering van hun beperkte kwalificaties niet oriënteren op de ‘consumptiemarkt’, maar zijn integendeel volledig afhankelijk van de
accoord nog een extra impuls nodig zou (kun nen) hebben. Op de achtergrond speelde tevens het belang van unanieme advisering door partij en. Een sterk verdeeld SER-advies
Plaatsen we derhalve het ontslaan en aannemen van perso neel binnen het gehele scala van vormen van personeelsvoorziening dan blijkt dat bedrijven die meer
