Briefing for Central America and Hispaniola May 10, 2011
Miliaritiana Robjhon miliaritiana.robjhon@noaa.gov
Apante season performance
Observed Long-term Average
Atlantic side (southern parts) of Central America received insufficient (exceeding) rainfall.
Apante season anomaly (mm)
• Below-average rainfall was
observed across northern/eastern Honduras and eastern
Nicaragua
• Remainder of Central America received
seasonably totals
• Northern Haiti received below- average rainfall
TRMM weekly totals (mm)
• A significant reduction of rainfall, particularly across northern Central America
• Reduction of rainfall over Hispaniola
Measured rainfall (mm) on GTS:
May 3 – May 9, 2011
Puerto Barrios: 237mm Guatemala: 1mm
Ilopango: 53mm
Tegucigalpa: 3mm
San Jose/Santa Maria: 0mm
Tocumen: 34mm Flores: 10mm
Santa Ana: 13mm
7-day rainfall anomaly (mm)
• Western Guatemala, El Salvador, and northern Costa Rica received below- average rainfall during the last week
• Central department of Haiti received below-average rainfall
30-day rainfall anomaly (mm)
• Growing rainfall deficits in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Haiti, and western Nicaragua
• Persistence of rainfall surpluses in the Gulf of Honduras and Panama
Time series of rainfall (mm)
Gonaives, Haiti Deficits: ~37.0mm
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala Rica Deficits: ~40.0mm
Number of rain days: Central America
A decrease (increase) in the number of rain days across the Pacific (Atlantic) side of Central America
Number of rain days: Hispaniola
An overall drop in number of rain days over Haiti during the last 30 days
Pentadal WRSI: Central America
• Deteriorating vegetation conditions in local areas (Huehuetenago) of Guatemala and (Ocotepeque and Lempira) of Honduras
• Improving conditions in the Gracias A Dios dept. of Honduras and Atlantico regions of Nicaragua
APR 26 – APR 30 MAY 1 – MAY 5
Pentadal WRSI: Hispaniola
• Declining vegetation conditions across western Haiti
• A slight improvement in the south
APR 26 – APR 30 MAY 1 – MAY 5
Synoptic conditions during May 1 – May 7, 2011
SLP anomaly
700-hPa zonal wind anomaly
700-hPa RH anomaly
Atmospheric circulation
(Experimental) Caribbean monthly rainfall outlook by NCEP coupled model
May: below-average
(above-average) rainfall in northern (southern
Caribbean) CA
June: below-average rainfall in northern CA, neutral elsewhere
July: Relatively neutral across CA
Rainfall forecast during the next 7 days
Return of moderate to heavy rains over much of Central America Localized rains expected southeastern Haiti
