Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing
31 August 2010
nicholas.novella@noaa.gov nicholas.novella@noaa.gov
From: Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2010
Flores= 95 mm
Tegucigalpa= 80mm
San Jose= 93 mm
Guatemala= 168 mm
Puerto Barrios= 100 mm
La Union= 163 mm
Hurricane: “EARL”
- Category 4
- Min SFC P = 931mb(falling)
- Sustained winds ~ 130mph (115kts)
- In the last 3 days, models continued to shift EARL further west.
- General trend (48hrs) – intensifying, after eyewall replacement cycle
-Track shifting NW -> N in next 48hrs -Will encounter moderate shear env and cooler SST’s stabilize at Cat 3 weaken -Storm motion to accelerate and become extratropical after 72hrs after Ewrd shift of ST ridge and deep layer trof moves over NE US - Although close, still not expected to pose threat to Hispaniola on near term.
*** For US, much uncertainty ??
Tropical Storm: “FIONA”
- Min SFC P = 1007 mb (falling) - Sustained winds ~ 40mph (35kts) - General trend (48hrs) – weakening - Encountering same shear env, likely to remain stable and weaken after next 48hrs.
- Convective banding more disorganized, deepest in western semicircle
- Likely to mimic NNWrly track of EARL, pass over waters mixed by EARL,
