Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing

Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing

12 October 2010

Tom.DiLiberto@noaa.gov Tom.DiLiberto@noaa.gov

0 mm

> 100 mm

Hurricane Paula

-Moving NW at 10 mph; 992 mb ; winds: 75 mph - Paula rapidly intensified from tropical

disturbance to hurricane in ~ 12-18 hours.

-Environment to continually get less conducive for development as shear increases and dry air inhibits strengthening

-Paula is a small hurricane with most convection offshore of Central America.

- Final track will depend on the strength of Paula as steering currents break down by Wednesday -Paula could wander east of the Northern

Yucatan all week

Rainfall Suppression across Central America

Positive Values (Brown contours) –

Conditions not favorable for precipitation

Negative Values (Green contours) – Conditions favorable for precipitation

IR Temperatures (K) / 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies

Central America under the Suppression phase of the

Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) which will help inhibit precipitation

MJO forecast to weaken in amplitude and continue propagating east during the next week

Suppressed convection over Central America forecast for the next week Ensemble Mean GFS MJO Forecast –

OLR anomalies

Ensemble GFS MJO Forecast