Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing

-warm SST’s and weak shear environment - Expected to continue moving west by Friday when it will be off the northern Nicaragua coast. -Track: too early to tell, could impact

- Final track will depend on the strength of Paula as steering currents break down by Wednesday -Paula could wander east of the Northern. Yucatan

Central America still suppressed although velocity potential anomalies pattern is more incoherent than last week.. MJO forecast to weaken

*** While current AC similar to a typical fall La Nina pattern, there are differences in downstream

Models predict La Nina continues through Spring 2011 before a potential return to ENSO neutral. conditions ( -0.5 to 0.5 °C anomalies) by

Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing. 15

Central America & Hispaniola Briefing Central America & Hispaniola Briefing. 22

• Continued moderate/locally heavy rain across northern Central America. • Potential increase in rain across drier than average portions