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– May 2, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET April 26

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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7566. Questions about the USAID FEWSNET activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for FEWSNET, 1-202- 219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

April 26 – May 2, 2012

The forecasted heavy rainfall increases the risks for flash flooding and landslides across portions of Hispaniola over the next seven days.

During the past seven days, an overall reduction in rainfall has been observed across Hispaniola. However, frontal boundaries over the past forty eight hours have brought heavy (> 50 mm) rainfall across southern Haiti and western Dominican Republic. Across eastern Dominican Republic, rainfall was below-average during the past seven days; and it has helped to provide relief to oversaturation, which has resulted from frequent and intense rainfall during this month. Conversely, the observed increase in rainfall has generally eliminated thirty-day rainfall deficits over the southern departments of Haiti. For next week, frontal systems could remain during a few days over Hispaniola and bring heavy rainfall across many areas of the region. This, therefore, increases the potential for flooding and landslides over the eastern half of Haiti and neighboring west central and northern Dominican Republic.

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However, the continuation of above-average rainfall in early May is also expected to sustain the potential for flooding, and possible landslides in the higher elevations

Since the beginning of April, all of Hispaniola remains above-average in rainfall and available moisture with monthly precipitation surpluses as high as 100mm

The above-average rains observed across Hispaniola over the past several weeks have helped to neutralize moisture deficits that had resulted from a poor rainfall distribution

As for the next seven days, moderate to locally heavy (30 – 75 mm) rains are expected to continue over Hispaniola, with the heaviest (> 75 mm) rains forecasted

Adequate rainfall across central Hispaniola has led to average to above-average vegetative conditions in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.. Thirty-day rainfall amounts are close

During the next outlook period, an increase in rainfall is forecast over Hispaniola, with moderate to locally heavy rain over central and southern Haiti,

The forecast light rain may help to reduce negative rainfall anomalies partially, but unlikely to fully eliminate moisture deficits accumulated over the past several weeks

For the upcoming outlook period, moderate to locally high rainfall accumulations are expected across Haiti, with the potential for locally high rainfall amounts across