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Caught in adversity Segeren, M.W.

2020

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Segeren, M. W. (2020). Caught in adversity: The development, persistence and escalation of criminal behavior

from a public mental health care perspective.

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CHAPTER 6

PUBLIC MENTAL HEALTH CARE

DETERMINANTS OF RECURRENT

REOFFENDING AFTER RELEASE

FROM PRISON: A REPEAT-EVENT

ANALYSIS

Menno Segeren Anders Boyd Thijs Fassaert Arne Popma Matty de Wit

ϭϭϰ

ABSTRACT

dŚĞƐƚƵĚLJĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĚƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĂŶĚ ŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚĚLJŶĂŵŝĐƌŝƐŬĨĂĐƚŽƌƐŽĨƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ͘/ŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĚĂƚĂ of ŵĂůĞƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚƐŚŽƌƚƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞƐ;EсϭϵϰͿǁĞƌĞŵĂƚĐŚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ ĂŶĚƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚĚĂƚĂĐŽǀĞƌŝŶŐĂϱͲLJĞĂƌĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƉĞƌŝŽĚ͘ZĞƉĞĂƚͲĞǀĞŶƚĂŶĂůLJƐĞƐ͕ ƚŚĂƚĂĐĐŽƵŶƚĞĚĨŽƌƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƉĞƌŝŽĚĂŶĚƚŚĂƚĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚĞĚ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ͕ǁĞƌĞƵƐĞĚƚŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶ ŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞĂŶĚƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƉƵďůŝĐŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞ ĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐŽĨƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͕ϴϵ͘ϳй;ŶсϭϳϰͿƌĞŽīĞŶĚĞĚ ĂŶĚϰϳ͘ϰй;ŶсϵϮͿǁĞƌĞƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚ͘KĨĂůůƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐǁĞƌĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ͕ ĨŽůůŽǁĞĚďLJŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘/ŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐǁĞƌĞ ŚŝŐŚĞƐƚŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌĂŌĞƌƉƌŝƐŽŶ͘/ŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐŵŽƌĞĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚ LJĞĂƌĂŌĞƌƉƌŝƐŽŶƌĞŵĂŝŶĞĚƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĂĐƟǀĞŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘zŽƵŶŐĞƌĂŐĞ͕ ďĞŝŶŐƐŝŶŐůĞ͕ƵŶƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͕ƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJĂŶĚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJ ĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌǁĞƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚůLJĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ZĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƌĞͲ ŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƌĂƚĞƐĂƌĞŚŝŐŚĂŵŽŶŐŵĂůĞƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚƐŚŽƌƚƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞƐ͘dŚĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĚLJŶĂŵŝĐƌŝƐŬĨĂĐƚŽƌƐŽĨƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚŝŶƚŚŝƐƐƚƵĚLJƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĂƉƵďůŝĐŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽƉƌĞǀĞŶƚƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵ ƉƌŝƐŽŶ͘

ϭϭϱ

INTRODUCTION

/ŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚŚĂƐƐĞǀĞƌĂůĨƵŶĐƟŽŶƐ͕ŽŶĞŽĨǁŚŝĐŚŝƐƚŽĚĞƚĞƌŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĨƌŽŵĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐƌŝŵŝŶĂů ĂĐƟǀŝƚLJ͘ ,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ ĐƌŝŵŝŶĂů ƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ĂŌĞƌ ƌĞůĞĂƐĞ ĨƌŽŵ ƉƌŝƐŽŶ ŝƐ ŚŝŐŚůLJ ĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ͘ĨĂŝƌůLJƌĞĐĞŶƚƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐƌĞǀŝĞǁƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚƌĞĐŽŶǀŝĐƟŽŶƌĂƚĞƐŽĨϮϬͲϱϵйĂŶĚ ƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƌĂƚĞƐŽĨϮϵͲϯϵйĂŵŽŶŐƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚŝŶϮLJĞĂƌƐĂŌĞƌĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ͘dŚĞƐĞ ƌĂƚĞƐŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚƚŽǁĂƌĚƐϱϱͲϳϮйĂŶĚϰϯͲϱϮй͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJ͕ŝŶĂƐƚƵĚLJǁŝƚŚĂϱͲLJĞĂƌ ƉŽƐƚͲĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ;&ĂnjĞůĂŶĚtŽůĨ͕ϮϬϭϱͿ͘/ŶƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂůƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŽĨƵƚĐŚ ƌĞŐŝƐƚĞƌĞĚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ͕ϮͲLJĞĂƌĂŶĚϰͲLJĞĂƌƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵƌĂƚĞƐ͕ďĂƐĞĚŽŶƌĞĐŽŶǀŝĐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌ ĂŶLJĐƌŝŵĞŝƌƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŽĨŝƚƐŶĂƚƵƌĞŽƌƐĞƌŝŽƵƐŶĞƐƐ͕ŚĂǀĞƐŚŽǁŶĂĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞŝŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ϮϬϬϮͲϮϬϭϮ͕ĂǀĞƌĂŐŝŶŐϱϬйĂŶĚϲϲй͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJ;tĂƌƚŶĂĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϱ͖tĞŝũƚĞƌƐ ĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϵͿ͘/ŶƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJƵƚĐŚƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͕ƚŚĞϮͲLJĞĂƌƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵƌĂƚĞĂŌĞƌƉƌŝƐŽŶŚĂƐ ƐůŝŐŚƚůLJĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞĚĨƌŽŵϱϮйŝŶϮϬϬϰƚŽϰϱйŝŶϮϬϭϯ;tĂƌƚŶĂĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϲͿ͘ dŚĞƐĞƐƚĂƟƐƟĐƐĐůĞĂƌůLJƉŽƌƚƌĂLJƉƌŝƐŽŶƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƐĂƐďĞŝŶŐŚŝŐŚůLJƉƌŽŶĞƚŽƌĞŽīĞŶĚ ĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ͕ĞǀĞŶŝŶĐŽŵƉĂƌŝƐŽŶǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌŽīĞŶĚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉƐ;ŶĚĞƌƐĞŶ ĂŶĚ^ŬĂƌĚŚĂŵĂƌ͕ϮϬϭϳ͖tĂƌƚŶĂĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϲͿ͘dŚŝƐĞŵƉŚĂƐŝnjĞƐƚŚĞŽŶŐŽŝŶŐŶĞĞĚĨŽƌ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞĚŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶƐĂŵŽŶŐƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͘ŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŝƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĨƌŽŵĂŚĂƌŵ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶ͕ƉƵďůŝĐƐĂĨĞƚLJ;Ğ͘Ő͘ůĞƐƐĐƌŝŵĞĂŶĚŶƵŝƐĂŶĐĞͿĂŶĚĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƉŽŝŶƚŽĨǀŝĞǁ;Ğ͘Ő͘ ƉŽůŝĐĞĂŶĚũƵƐƟĐĞĞdžƉĞŶƐĞƐ͕ĐŽƐƚƐŽĨŝŶĐĂƌĐĞƌĂƟŽŶĂŶĚďĞŶĞĮƚƐŽĨĂĐƟǀĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶ ŝŶƚŚĞůĂďŽƌŵĂƌŬĞƚͿ͘/ĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐĨĂĐƚŽƌƐƚŚĂƚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵƌĞŵĂŝŶƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ĂƐƚŚĞLJŵĂLJŝŶĨŽƌŵƚŚĞĚĞƐŝŐŶŽĨĚŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶƐĂŶĚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŽĂůůŽĐĂƚĞ ƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐƚŽƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶƐ͘ dŚĞůŝƚĞƌĂƚƵƌĞŽŶƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵŝƐďƌŽĂĚĂŶĚĨƌĂŐŵĞŶƚĞĚ͕ǁŚĞƌĞŝŶĂǀĂƌŝĞƚLJŽĨĚĞĮŶŝƟŽŶƐ ĐŽŶƐƚŝƚƵƚŝŶŐ ƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ĞŵƉůŽLJĞĚ ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ ƌĞͲĂƌƌĞƐƚ͕ ƌĞĐŽŶǀŝĐƚŝŽŶ͕ ƌĞͲ ŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚͿ͕ ĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ ƚĂƌŐĞƚ ƉŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶƐ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ƐƚƵĚŝĞĚ ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ ƌĞŵĂŶĚ ƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͕ ŝŶŵĂƚĞƐ͕ ũƵǀĞŶŝůĞ ŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ͕ ǀŝŽůĞŶƚ ŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ƐĞdž ŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐͿ ĂŶĚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚŽƵƚĐŽŵĞƐŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŝnjĞĚ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ǁŚĞƚŚĞƌŽƌŶŽƚ ƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽĐĐƵƌƌĞĚ͕ƟŵĞƵŶƟůƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞĂŶĚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ ǁŝƚŚŝŶĂĐĞƌƚĂŝŶĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞͿ;ƵůůĞŶĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϭ͖&ĂnjĞůĂŶĚtŽůĨ͕ϮϬϭϱ͖<ŝŵĞƚĂů͕͘ ϮϬϭϲ͖DƵůĚĞƌĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϭ͖WŝƋƵĞƌŽĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϱͿ͘EĞǀĞƌƚŚĞůĞƐƐ͕ƌĞůĂƟǀĞůLJĨĞǁƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ ŚĂǀĞŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂƐŝƚŽĐĐƵƌƐŽǀĞƌĂůŽŶŐĞƌƉĞƌŝŽĚ ŽĨƟŵĞ͕ŵĂŝŶůLJďĞĐĂƵƐĞůŽŶŐĞƌĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƉĞƌŝŽĚƐǁŽƵůĚďĞƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚƚŽƐƵĸĐŝĞŶƚůLJ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĞǀĞŶƚƐ;ŽǁůĞƐĂŶĚ&ůŽƌĂĐŬŝƐ͕ϮϬϬϳͿ͘^ĞǀĞƌĂůŵŽĚĞůŝŶŐƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĞƐĂƌĞ ĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞƚŚĂƚĐĂŶďĞƵƐĞĚƚŽĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞĂŶĚƚŽĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞ͕ ĨŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ͕ĂƚǁŚŝĐŚƟŵĞƉŽŝŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŝƐŵŽƌĞůŝŬĞůLJƚŽ ŽĐĐƵƌĂŶĚǁŚŝĐŚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĂƌĞŵŽƐƚǀƵůŶĞƌĂďůĞƚŽĞĂƌůŝĞƌƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘dŚŝƐŵĂLJƉƌŽǀĞ

6

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ϭϭϳ dŚĞLJŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚĂƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƌŝƐŬĨĂĐƚŽƌƐĨŽƌƚŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ ƉĞƌƐŝƐƚĞŶĐĞŽĨĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĂŶĚĂůƐŽĐŽŶƐƟƚƵƚĞĂŵĂũŽƌƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƌŝƐŬͲŶĞĞĚƐͲ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ;ZEZͿŵŽĚĞůŽĨŽīĞŶĚĞƌƌĞŚĂďŝůŝƚĂƟŽŶ;ŽŶƚĂΘŶĚƌĞǁƐ͕ϮϬϬϳͿ͘DŽƌĞ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJ͕ƚŚĞZEZŵŽĚĞůƐƚĂƚĞƐƚŚĂƚŝƐŝŵƉĞƌĂƟǀĞĨŽƌƉƌŽďĂƟŽŶƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐƚŽŵĂƚĐŚ ƚŚĞƚLJƉĞĂŶĚŝŶƚĞŶƐŝƚLJŽĨĚŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶƐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĐƌŝŵŝŶŽŐĞŶŝĐŶĞĞĚƐŵŽƐƚ ƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŽŶĞ͛ƐƌŝƐŬŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ƐĂĐŽŶƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞ͕ƚŚĞĐĞŶƚƌĂůĞŝŐŚƚ ĐƌŝŵŝŶŽŐĞŶŝĐ ŶĞĞĚƐ ĂƌĞ ĐŽŵŵŽŶůLJ ĞŵďĞĚĚĞĚ ŝŶ ƌŝƐŬͲĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚ ŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚƐ ĨŽƌ ƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ;ŶĚƌĞǁƐĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϲͿĂŶĚŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚĂƐŬĞLJĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐŝŶŵĂŶLJƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ͘ ,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ƚŚĞǀŝĞǁƚŚĂƚĂƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞĂůŽŶĞŝƐŝŶĂĚĞƋƵĂƚĞƚŽƌĞĚƵĐĞƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ tĂƌƌĞŶ͕ϮϬϬϴͿŚĂƐĂůƐŽďĞĐŽŵĞŵŽƌĞŝŶŐƌĂŝŶĞĚŝŶƉŽůŝĐLJ͕ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞĂŶĚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŽŶƚŚĞ ŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŽŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶůĂǁĞŶĨŽƌĐĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚƉƵďůŝĐ;ŵĞŶƚĂůͿŚĞĂůƚŚ;ŬĞƌƐΘ>ĂŶŝĞƌ͕ϮϬϬϵ͖ sĂŶŝũŬĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϵͿ͘ƌŝǀĞŶďLJŚŝŐŚƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŽĨƉƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐĂŶĚƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞ ƵƐĞĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐŽďƐĞƌǀĞĚŝŶŽīĞŶĚĞƌƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƐ͕ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ;ƵůƚĞŶĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϵ͖ &ĂnjĞůĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϲͿ͕ŝƚŚĂƐďĞĞŶŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐůLJƌĞĐŽŐŶŝnjĞĚƚŚĂƚŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞƐƚƌŽŶŐĞƌ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶƐŝŶĐƌŝŵĞ͕ĚŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶĞīŽƌƚƐŶĞĞĚƚŽŝŶĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ;ƉƵďůŝĐŵĞŶƚĂůͿŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞ ĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐĂŶĚƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĞƐ͘/ŶŐĞŶĞƌĂů͕ƉƵďůŝĐŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ;WD,ͿƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ĐĂƌĞĂŶĚƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƚŽƚŚĞĚŝǀĞƌƐĞƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŽĨǀƵůŶĞƌĂďůĞŽƌŵĂƌŐŝŶĂůŝnjĞĚƉĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽ are unable to independently enter care, with the homeless and chronic drug abusers ďĞŝŶŐĂƌĐŚĞƚLJƉĂůĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ;>ĂƌŝŵĞƌĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϵ͖>ĂƵƌŝŬƐĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϮͿ͘WD,ŝƐƚĂƐŬĞĚ ǁŝƚŚĂƉƵďůŝĐƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJƚŽŐƵŝĚĞƚŚĞƐĞĐůŝĞŶƚƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ;ŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚͿĐĂƌĞ͕ďƵƚĂůƐŽ ƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƚŚĞŵǁŝƚŚďĂƐŝĐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚƐ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐĂŶŝŶĐŽŵĞ͕ĚĞďƚĂƐƐŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ͕ŚŽƵƐŝŶŐ ŽƌƐŚĞůƚĞƌĂŶĚǁŽƌŬŽƌŽƚŚĞƌĨŽƌŵƐŽĨƐŽĐŝĂůƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶ͘WD,ĂŝŵƐƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞƚŚĞ ŽǀĞƌĂůůƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞƐĞĐůŝĞŶƚƐĂŶĚ͕ďLJǁĂLJŽĨŚĂƌŵƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƉƵďůŝĐƐĂĨĞƚLJ͕ŽĨ ƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŝŶƚŚĞŝƌĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ͘ /ŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐWD,ĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐŝŶĚŝǀĞƌƐŝŽŶƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐŵĂLJďĞĞīĞĐƟǀĞƚŽƉƌĞǀĞŶƚƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ĂŵŽŶŐƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͘^ŝŵŝůĂƌƚŽĨŽĐƵƐĞĚĚĞƚĞƌƌĞŶĐĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐĂŶĚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶĂŌĞƌĐĂƌĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ͕WD,ŝƐǁĞůůĞƋƵŝƉƉĞĚƚŽƚĂƌŐĞƚĚLJŶĂŵŝĐƌŝƐŬĨĂĐƚŽƌƐ͕ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJƚŚŽƐĞ ƌŝƐŬĨĂĐƚŽƌƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞĚŝĸĐƵůƚƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĚƵƌŝŶŐƉƌŝƐŽŶ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐŚŽŵĞůĞƐƐŶĞƐƐĂŶĚ ƵŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ͘&ƵƌƚŚĞƌŵŽƌĞ͕ĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚŚĞũƵƐƟĐĞƐLJƐƚĞŵĂŶĚůŽĐĂů WD,ƐLJƐƚĞŵƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂŶŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƚŽƌĞĐŽŶĐŝůĞĐĂƌĞĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĂůƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐŝŶƐŝĚĞ ĂŶĚŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƉƌŝƐŽŶ͕ǁŚŝĐŚŝƐŽĨƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐƚŚĂƚŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚ ĨŽƐƚĞƌƐĨƌĂŐŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶĂŶĚĚŝƐĐŽŶƟŶƵŝƚLJŽĨĐĂƌĞ͘ &ĂŝƌůLJƌĞĐĞŶƚĮŶĚŝŶŐƐŚĂǀĞƐŚŽǁŶƚŚĂƚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂďůĞƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶƐŽĨĂƌƌĞƐƚĞĞƐ;ƵƐƚĞƌ ĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϰͿ͕ǀŝŽůĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ;&ĂƐƐĂĞƌƚĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϲͿ͕ĞdžͲĚĞƚĂŝŶĞĞƐ;^ĞŐĞƌĞŶĞƚĂů͕͘

6

ϭϭϴ ϮϬϭϳͿĂŶĚLJŽƵŶŐĂĚƵůƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ;sĂŶƵŝŶĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϴͿĂƉƉĞĂƌĞĚƚŽƋƵĂůŝĨLJĂƐWD, ƚĂƌŐĞƚŐƌŽƵƉƐ͘/ŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐŝŶƚŚĞƐĞŐƌŽƵƉƐƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚǁŝƚŚĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶƐŽĨŵĞŶƚĂů ŚĞĂůƚŚƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂŶĚŝŵƉĂŝƌĞĚĨƵŶĐƟŽŶŝŶŐŝŶƐŽĐŝĂůĚŽŵĂŝŶƐ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐŚŽƵƐŝŶŐ͕ĮŶĂŶĐĞƐ͕ ǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ͕ĂŶĚŚĂǀŝŶŐƵŶŵĞƚĐĂƌĞŶĞĞĚƐ͘dŚĞĞdžƚĞŶƚƚŽǁŚŝĐŚWD,ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞƉŽƐƚͲĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝƐ͕ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ůĂƌŐĞůLJƵŶŬŶŽǁŶ͘/ŶƚŚŝƐůŝŐŚƚ͕ ƚŚĞƐƚƵĚLJŚĞƌĞŝŶĂŝŵƐƚŽŐĂŝŶŵŽƌĞŝŶƐŝŐŚƚŝŶƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͕ĂƐŝƚŽĐĐƵƌƐŽǀĞƌ ƟŵĞ͕ĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĂŶĚƚŚĞǁĂLJŝŶǁŚŝĐŚƚŚĞƐĞƚƌĞŶĚƐĂƌĞƌĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽWD, ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐ͘dŚĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐŽĨƚŚŝƐƐƚƵĚLJĂƌĞĂƐĨŽůůŽǁƐ͗ ϭ͘ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵƌĂƚĞĂŵŽŶŐŵĂůĞ;ĞdžͲͿƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚƐŚŽƌƚƉƌŝƐŽŶ sentences from general prison wards?

Ϯ͘ ,ŽǁĐĂŶƚŚĞŝƌĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵďĞĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚĂĐĐŽƌĚŝŶŐƚŽƚƌĞŶĚƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ ŽǀĞƌƟŵĞĂŶĚďLJƚLJƉĞƐŽĨŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ͍ ϯ͘ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŽĨWD,ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐŝŶƚŚŝƐƐĂŵƉůĞ͍ ϰ͘ tŚŝĐŚŽĨƚŚĞƐĞWD,ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐĂƌĞĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞ ĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶǁŚŝůĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƌĞƉĞĂƚŽĐĐƵƌƌĞŶĐĞŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ͍

METHOD

DESIGN AND SET TING

tĞƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚĂůŽŶŐŝƚƵĚŝŶĂůƐƚƵĚLJƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶĂŶĚWD,ĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐŽĨ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ͘ϱͲLJĞĂƌĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞǁĂƐ ƐŽƵŐŚƚŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĐĂƉƚƵƌĞĂǁŝĚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƚŽŝŶǀĞƐƟŐĂƚĞ ŚŽǁƚŚŝƐĐŽƵůĚĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞĐŽƵƌƐĞŽĨƟŵĞ͘/ŶŵĂƚĞƐĨƌŽŵŐĞŶĞƌĂůƉƌŝƐŽŶǁĂƌĚƐ ŝŶŵƐƚĞƌĚĂŵ͕ǁŝƚŚĂŵĂdžŝŵƵŵƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞŽĨϲŵŽŶƚŚƐ͕ǁĞƌĞƌĞĐƌƵŝƚĞĚďĞƚǁĞĞŶ &ĞďƌƵĂƌLJĂŶĚƵŐƵƐƚϮϬϭϬ͘WD,ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐǁĞƌĞĂƐƐĞƐƐĞĚĚƵƌŝŶŐĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶďƵƚ ƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚƚŽƚŚĞŝƌƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƐũƵƐƚďĞĨŽƌĞĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ;ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJĨŽƌŚŽƵƐŝŶŐ͕ĮŶĂŶĐĞƐĂŶĚ ǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶͿ͘ĂƚĂƌĞƚƌŝĞǀĞĚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞůŽĐĂůƉŽůŝĐĞƌĞŐŝƐƚƌLJƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ĂďŽƵƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͕ŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŝnjĞĚĂƐƌĞͲĂƌƌĞƐƚƐŝŶĂƉŽƐƚͲƉƌŝƐŽŶŽďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶƉĞƌŝŽĚ ƐƚĂƌƟŶŐĂƚƚŚĞĚĂƚĞŽĨĚŝƐĐŚĂƌŐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŝŶϮϬϭϬƵŶƟůDĂƌĐŚϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱ͘dŚĞƐĞĚĂƚĂ ǁĞƌĞŵĂƚĐŚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚĚĂƚĂƚŚĂƚĐŽǀĞƌĞĚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƉĞƌŝŽĚƚŽĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞ ĞĂĐŚƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐĂĐƚƵĂůƟŵĞĂƚƌŝƐŬ;ŝ͘Ğ͚͘ĂƚůŝďĞƌƚLJ͛Ϳ;^ƵƚŚĞƌůĂŶĚ͕ϮϬϭϯͿ͘ WZKhZ dŚĞƵƚĐŚDŝŶŝƐƚƌLJŽĨ:ƵƐƟĐĞŐƌĂŶƚĞĚƉĞƌŵŝƐƐŝŽŶƚŽŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁŝŶŵĂƚĞƐĂŶĚƚŽĐŽŶƐƵůƚ ƚŚĞůŽĐĂůƉŽůŝĐĞƌĞŐŝƐƚƌLJ͘ŽŶĚŝƟŽŶƐƚŽĚŽƐŽǁĞƌĞƚŚĂƚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶĚŝĚŶŽƚŝŶǀŽůǀĞ ŵĞĚŝĐĂů ŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶƐ͕ ǁĂƐ ǀŽůƵŶƚĂƌLJ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶĮĚĞŶƟĂů ĂŶĚ ŚĂĚ ŶŽ ũƵĚŝĐŝĂůͬƉĞŶĂů ĐŽŶƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞƐ͘/ŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ͕ŝŶŵĂƚĞƐŚĂĚƚŽƐŝŐŶĂŶŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚĐŽŶƐĞŶƚĨŽƌŵĂŶĚǁĞƌĞ ŐŝǀĞŶƚŚĞŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƚŽƚĞƌŵŝŶĂƚĞƚŚĞŝƌƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶĂƚĂŶLJƟŵĞ͘ƉƉƌŽǀĂůƚŽƌĞƚƌŝĞǀĞ

ϭϭϵ ŽīĞŶƐĞĚĂƚĂĨƌŽŵƚŚĞůŽĐĂůƉŽůŝĐĞƌĞŐŝƐƚƌLJĂŶĚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶĚĂƚĂǁĂƐƌĂƟĮĞĚĮǀĞLJĞĂƌƐ ůĂƚĞƌŝŶϮϬϭϱďLJƚŚĞDŝŶŝƐƚƌLJŽĨ:ƵƐƟĐĞĂŶĚďLJƚŚĞŽƵŶĐŝůŽĨƩŽƌŶĞLJƐ'ĞŶĞƌĂůĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ WƵďůŝĐWƌŽƐĞĐƵƚŽƌ͛ƐKĸĐĞ͘ĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞƐĞĐŽŶĚŝƟŽŶƐ͕ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůŽĨĂŵĞĚŝĐĂůͲ ĞƚŚŝĐƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĞǁĂƐŶŽƚŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJ͘ĂƐĞĚŽŶĂĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶŽĨƐƵƌŶĂŵĞƐ͕ŝŶŝƟĂůƐĂŶĚ ĚĂƚĞƐŽĨďŝƌƚŚ͕ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁĞƌĞŵĂƚĐŚĞĚƚŽƚŚĞƌĞŐŝƐƚƌLJŽĨƚŚĞƉŽůŝĐĞĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ŵƐƚĞƌĚĂŵŽŶDĂƌĐŚϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱƚŽƌĞƚƌŝĞǀĞƌĞͲĂƌƌĞƐƚƐĂŶĚƚŚĞĐƵƐƚŽĚŝĂůŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶƐ ĂŐĞŶĐLJƚŽƌĞƚƌŝĞǀĞƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ͘ ůůŝŶŵĂƚĞƐĞŶƚĞƌŝŶŐƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƌĞĐƌƵŝƚŵĞŶƚƉĞƌŝŽĚƌĞĐĞŝǀĞĚĂŇLJĞƌƚŚĂƚ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚƚŚĞƐƚƵĚLJĂŶĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚƚŚĞŵƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĐŽƵůĚďĞĐĂůůĞĚƵƉŽŶĨŽƌǀŽůƵŶƚĂƌLJ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶ͘dŚĞŇLJĞƌĞŵƉŚĂƐŝnjĞĚƚŚĂƚĂŶLJŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚǁŽƵůĚŶŽƚďĞƐŚĂƌĞĚ ǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌƉĂƌƟĞƐ͕ƚŚĞƌĞǁĞƌĞŶŽũƵĚŝĐŝĂůĐŽŶƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞƐĂŶĚƌĞƐƵůƚƐǁŽƵůĚďĞƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚ ĂƚƚŚĞŐƌŽƵƉͲůĞǀĞůŽŶůLJ͘/ŶŵĂƚĞƐǁĞƌĞŽīĞƌĞĚϮϱƵƌŽĂƐĐŽŵƉĞŶƐĂƟŽŶ͕ƚŽďĞĐŽůůĞĐƚĞĚ ĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ͘&ŝǀĞƚƌĂŝŶĞĚŵĂƐƚĞƌ͛ƐůĞǀĞůƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐLJƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚ ƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐƵŶĚĞƌƐƵƉĞƌǀŝƐŝŽŶŽĨƚǁŽƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉƵďůŝĐŚĞĂůƚŚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ŵƐƚĞƌĚĂŵ͘/ŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐǁĞƌĞŚĞůĚǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚϭϬĚĂLJƐŽĨĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶŝŶĞŝƚŚĞƌƵƚĐŚ ŽƌŶŐůŝƐŚ͘ PARTICIPANTS DĂůĞŝŶŵĂƚĞƐǁŚŽĞŶƚĞƌĞĚƚŚĞƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚƉƌŝƐŽŶƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶ&ĞďƌƵĂƌLJĂŶĚƵŐƵƐƚϮϬϭϬĂŶĚ ǁŚŽŵĞƚƚŚĞĞůŝŐŝďŝůŝƚLJĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂǁĞƌĞƌĞĐƌƵŝƚĞĚ͘dŚĞƐĞƉƌŝƐŽŶǁĂƌĚƐŚĞůĚŵŽƐƚůLJƌĞŵĂŶĚ ƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͕ďƵƚĂůƐŽƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚĂƉƌŝƐŽŶƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞŽĨƚŚƌĞĞŵŽŶƚŚƐŽƌůĞƐƐ͘/ŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶ ĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂ ǁĞƌĞ ĐŝƟnjĞŶƐŚŝƉ ŽĨ ŵƐƚĞƌĚĂŵ͕ ĂŶ ;ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚͿ ĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ ƉĞƌŝŽĚ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƚǁŽǁĞĞŬƐĂŶĚƐŝdžŵŽŶƚŚƐĂŶĚŶŽƚďĞŝŶŐĚĞƚĂŝŶĞĚŝŶƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶƵŶŝƚƐĨŽƌ ƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚĂĐƵƚĞƐĞǀĞƌĞŵĞŶƚĂůŝůůŶĞƐƐ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ƉƐLJĐŚŽƐŝƐͿŽƌůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵŝŶǀŽůƵŶƚĂƌLJ ĂĚĚŝĐƟŽŶĐĂƌĞ͘ ZͳZZ^d^EZͳ/DWZ/^KEDEd^ WŽůŝĐĞĚĂƚĂƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚĂůůĂƌƌĞƐƚƐŽĨƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŽďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶƉĞƌŝŽĚĨƌŽŵƌĞůĞĂƐĞ ŝŶϮϬϭϬƵŶƟůDĂƌĐŚϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱ͘ZĞͲĂƌƌĞƐƚƐĐŽŶĐĞƌŶĞĚŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚ ĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘DŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐǁĞƌĞŵĂŝŶůLJŐĞŶĞƌĂůŽīĞŶƐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞƉƵďůŝĐĚŽŵĂŝŶ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐƉƵďůŝĐ ŝŶƚŽdžŝĐĂƟŽŶ͕ŶƵŝƐĂŶĐĞ͕ƐĞůůŝŶŐĨĂŬĞĚƌƵŐƐĂŶĚǀĂŶĚĂůŝƐŵ͘ƌŝŵĞƐǁĞƌĞ͕ĨŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ͕ ĨƌĂƵĚ͕ƚŚĞŌ͕ŵŽŶĞLJůĂƵŶĚĞƌŝŶŐ͕ďƵƌŐůĂƌLJĂŶĚĚƌƵŐĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘sŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐǁĞƌĞǀŝŽůĞŶƚ ƚŚĞŌ͕ ŵĂŶƐůĂƵŐŚƚĞƌͬŚŽŵŝĐŝĚĞ͕ ƉƵďůŝĐͬĂŐŐƌĂǀĂƚĞĚ ĂƐƐĂƵůƚ͕ ƐƚƌĞĞƚ ƌŽďďĞƌLJ͕ ĂƌŵĞĚ ŝŶǀĂƐŝŽŶĂŶĚƐĞdžŽīĞŶƐĞƐ͘^ƚĂƌƚĂŶĚĚŝƐĐŚĂƌŐĞĚĂƚĞƐŽĨĂůůƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞŽďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶƉĞƌŝŽĚǁĞƌĞƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚďLJƚŚĞĐƵƐƚŽĚŝĂůŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶƐĂŐĞŶĐLJ͘

6

ϭϮϬ

SOCIODEMOGR APHIC VARIABLES

^ŽĐŝŽĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐǀĂƌŝĂďůĞƐŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚǁĞƌĞĂŐĞ͕ĞƚŚŶŝĐŝƚLJ͕ŵĂƌŝƚĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐ͕ůŝǀŝŶŐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ ;ƉƌŝŽƌƚŽĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶͿĂŶĚĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶƐƚĂƚƵƐ͘dŚƌĞĞĂŐĞͲŐƌŽƵƉƐǁĞƌĞĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƚĞĚ;ϭϴͲϮϮ͖ ϮϯͲϮϲ͖ϮϳнͿ͘WĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁĞƌĞĞƚŚŶŝĐƵƚĐŚŝĨƚŚĞLJĂŶĚďŽƚŚƉĂƌĞŶƚƐǁĞƌĞďŽƌŶŝŶƚŚĞ EĞƚŚĞƌůĂŶĚƐ͘EŽŶĞƚŚŶŝĐƵƚĐŚǁĞƌĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŚŽƚŚĞŵƐĞůǀĞƐ͕ŽƌĂƚůĞĂƐƚŽŶĞŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌƉĂƌĞŶƚƐ͕ǁĞƌĞŶŽƚďŽƌŶŝŶƚŚĞEĞƚŚĞƌůĂŶĚƐ͘DĂƌŝƚĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐĚŝƐĐƌŝŵŝŶĂƚĞĚďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƐŝŶŐůĞͬĚŝǀŽƌĐĞĚĂŶĚŵĂƌƌŝĞĚͬƉĂƌƚŶĞƌĞĚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ͘>ŝǀŝŶŐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƉƌŝŽƌƚŽĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ ĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚĞĚůŝǀŝŶŐĂůŽŶĞĨƌŽŵůŝǀŝŶŐŶŽƚĂůŽŶĞ;ǁŝƚŚĂƐƉŽƵƐĞ͕ƉĂƌĞŶƚ͕ĨƌŝĞŶĚŽƌŐƌŽƵƉͿ͘ ,ŝŐŚĞƐƚĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶůĞǀĞůǁĂƐĚŝǀŝĚĞĚŝŶƚŽĨŽƵƌĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝĞƐ͗ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJ͕ƐĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJ͕ƚĞƌƟĂƌLJ ĂŶĚŚŝŐŚĞƌĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ͘WĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŚŽŚĂĚŶŽƚĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚĂŶLJĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶŚŝŐŚĞƌƚŚĂŶ ƐĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ;h<͗KͲůĞǀĞůƐ͕h^͗ŚŝŐŚƐĐŚŽŽůͿǁĞƌĞŶŽƚ͚ƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͖͕͛ŝ͘Ğ͘ ŶŽƚĞƋƵŝƉƉĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŵŝŶŝŵƵŵĞŶƚƌLJͲůĞǀĞůƋƵĂůŝĮĐĂƟŽŶĨŽƌƚŚĞƵƚĐŚůĂďŽƌŵĂƌŬĞƚ͘

MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS

dŚĞƌŝĞĨ:ĂŝůDĞŶƚĂů,ĞĂůƚŚ^ĐƌĞĞŶ;:D,^Ϳ;^ƚĞĂĚŵĂŶĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϱ͕ϮϬϬϳͿǁĂƐƵƐĞĚ ƚŽ ƐĐƌĞĞŶ ĨŽƌ ŵĞŶƚĂů ŚĞĂůƚŚ ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ͘ dŚĞ :D,^ ŝƐ Ă ƐĐƌĞĞŶŝŶŐ ŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚ ĨŽƌ ƉƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐ͘/ƚǁĂƐĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚĨŽƌƵƐĞŝŶĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶƐĞƫŶŐƐƚŽƋƵŝĐŬůLJĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞ ŝĨĂŶŝŶĐŽŵŝŶŐĚĞƚĂŝŶĞĞƐŚŽƵůĚďĞƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚĨŽƌĂƚŚŽƌŽƵŐŚƉƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐĞdžĂŵŝŶĂƟŽŶ͘ /ƚŝƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞŵŽƐƚǁŝĚĞƐƉƌĞĂĚƐĐƌĞĞŶĞƌƐĨŽƌŵĞŶƚĂůĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞh^ ũĂŝůƐLJƐƚĞŵ;ĂůůĂŚĂŶΘEŽĞƚŚĞƌ͕ϮϬϭϴͿ͘dŚĞ:D,^ĐĂŶďĞƐĐŽƌĞĚŝŶĂƉƉƌŽdžŝŵĂƚĞůLJ ƚŚƌĞĞŵŝŶƵƚĞƐ͘WƐLJĐŚŽŵĞƚƌŝĐƉƌŽƉĞƌƟĞƐŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞƚŚĂƚƚŚĞ:D,^ŝƐĂƌĞůŝĂďůĞĂŶĚǀĂůŝĚ ŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚ;ĂŬƐŚĞĞǀĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϮͿ͘ŵŽŶŐŵĂůĞƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͕ƚŚĞƐĞŶƐŝƟǀŝƚLJĂŶĚƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŝƚLJ ŽĨĚĞƚĞĐƟŶŐĂƉƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌĂƌĞϲϲйĂŶĚϳϳй͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJ;^ƚĞĂĚŵĂŶĞƚĂů͕͘ ϮϬϬϱ͕ϮϬϬϳͿ͘ dŚĞ:D,^ĐŽŶƐŝƐƚƐŽĨĞŝŐŚƚLJĞƐͬŶŽŝƚĞŵƐ͕ǁŚŝĐŚƐĐƌĞĞŶĨŽƌĂƌĞůĂƟǀĞůLJďƌŽĂĚƌĂŶŐĞ ŽĨƉƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐ͘dŚĞĮƌƐƚƐŝdžŝƚĞŵƐĂƐƐĞƐƐƉƐLJĐŚŽƟĐ͕ďŝƉŽůĂƌĂŶĚĚĞƉƌĞƐƐŝǀĞ ƐLJŵƉƚŽŵƐ͘dŚĞůĂƐƚƚǁŽŝƚĞŵƐĂƐƐĞƐƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƵƐĞŽĨƉƐLJĐŚŽƚƌŽƉŝĐŵĞĚŝĐĂƟŽŶĂŶĚŚĂǀŝŶŐ ĂŚŝƐƚŽƌLJŽĨŚŽƐƉŝƚĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶĨŽƌŵĞŶƚĂůŝůůŶĞƐƐ͘dŚĞ:D,^ĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚŝƐƉŽƐŝƟǀĞǁŚĞŶĂƚ ůĞĂƐƚƚǁŽŽĨƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƐŝdžŝƚĞŵƐĂŶĚͬŽƌĂƚůĞĂƐƚŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞůĂƐƚƚǁŽŝƚĞŵƐĂƌĞƐĐŽƌĞĚ͞LJĞƐ͘͟ ^ƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJǁĂƐĂĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƚĞǀĂƌŝĂďůĞďĂƐĞĚŽŶĂůĐŽŚŽů͕ĐŽĐĂŝŶĞĂŶĚͬŽƌ ŽƉŝĂƚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ͘ůĐŽŚŽůĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJǁĂƐĂƐƐĞƐƐĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞůĐŽŚŽůhƐĞŝƐŽƌĚĞƌ /ĚĞŶƟĮĐĂƟŽŶdĞƐƚ;h/dͿ;ĂďŽƌĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϭͿ͘dŚĞh/dŝƐĂϭϬͲŝƚĞŵ;ƌĂŶŐĞϬͲϯϬͿ ƐĐƌĞĞŶŝŶŐŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚƚŚĂƚŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJͬƋƵĂŶƟƚLJŽĨŝŶƚĂŬĞ͕ŚĂnjĂƌĚŽƵƐĂůĐŽŚŽů ƵƐĞĂŶĚĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJƐLJŵƉƚŽŵƐ͘dŚĞĐƵƚͲŽīƐĐŽƌĞŽĨϭϬŽƌŚŝŐŚĞƌŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚĂůĐŽŚŽů ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ͘tŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽĐŽĐĂŝŶĞ͕ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŚŽƐĞůĨͲƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚĐŽĐĂŝŶĞƵƐĞĂƚ ůĞĂƐƚϰĚĂLJƐĂǁĞĞŬ͕ƚŽĞdžĐůƵĚĞǁĞĞŬĞŶĚƵƐĞƌƐ͕ǁĞƌĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚĂƐĐŽĐĂŝŶĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ͘

ϭϮϭ WĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŚŽƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚŽƉŝĂƚĞƵƐĞ͕ŝƌƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŽĨĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJĂŶĚƋƵĂŶƟƚLJŽĨƵƐĞ͕Žƌ ǁŚŽƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚŝŶĂŵĞƚŚĂĚŽŶĞŵĂŝŶƚĞŶĂŶĐĞƚƌĞĂƚŵĞŶƚƉƌŽŐƌĂŵǁĞƌĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ ĂƐŽƉŝĂƚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ͘ dŚĞ^ƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚůŝŶŝĐĂů/ŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĨŽƌ^DͲ/sdžŝƐ//WĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐͲWĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJ YƵĞƐƟŽŶŶĂŝƌĞ;^/Ͳ//ͬWYͿ;&ŝƌƐƚĞƚĂů͕͘ϭϵϵϳͿĂƐƐĞƐƐĞĚƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶĐĞŽĨƐŝdžĚŝƐƟŶĐƚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐ;WͿ͘dŚĞƐĞǁĞƌĞƚŚĞƉĂƌĂŶŽŝĚWĨƌŽŵĐůƵƐƚĞƌ;ŽĚĚŽƌĞĐĐĞŶƚƌŝĐ ĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌͿ͕ƚŚĞŚŝƐƚƌŝŽŶŝĐ͕ŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐ͕ďŽƌĚĞƌůŝŶĞĂŶĚĂŶƟƐŽĐŝĂůWƐĨƌŽŵĐůƵƐƚĞƌ ;ĚƌĂŵĂƟĐ͕ĞŵŽƟŽŶĂůŽƌĞƌƌĂƟĐĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐͿĂŶĚƚŚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚWĨƌŽŵĐůƵƐƚĞƌ;ĂŶdžŝŽƵƐ ŽƌĨĞĂƌĨƵůĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐͿ͘dŚŝƐƐĞůĞĐƟŽŶǁĂƐďĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŝƌƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŝŶƵƚĐŚƉƵďůŝĐ ŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƐ;sĂŶƌƵƐƐĞůΘƵƐƚĞƌ͕ϮϬϭϬͿ͘ SOCIAL PROBLEMS WƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐǁŝƚŚƐŽĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƉƌŝŽƌƚŽĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶǁĂƐĂƐƐĞƐƐĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽĚĂLJƟŵĞ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ͕ŚŽƵƐŝŶŐĂŶĚĮŶĂŶĐĞƐ͘ĚĂLJƟŵĞĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐƉƌŽďůĞŵǁĂƐĚĞĮŶĞĚĂƐďĞŝŶŐ ǁŝƚŚŽƵƚĨŽƌŵĂůĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚĂŶĚŶŽƚĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJĞŶƌŽůůĞĚŝŶĂƐƚƵĚLJƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ͘ŚŽƵƐŝŶŐ ƉƌŽďůĞŵǁĂƐĚĞĮŶĞĚĂƐďĞŝŶŐŚŽŵĞůĞƐƐŽƌƐůĞĞƉŝŶŐŝŶŶŝŐŚƚͲƐŚĞůƚĞƌƐ͘ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵ ǁĂƐĚĞĮŶĞĚĂƐŚĂǀŝŶŐŶŽĨŽƌŵĂůͬůĞŐĂůŝŶĐŽŵĞĂŶĚͬŽƌďĞŝŶŐŝŶĚĞďƚĞĚĨŽƌϭ͘ϬϬϬƵƌŽŽƌ ŵŽƌĞ͘&ŝŶĂůůLJ͕ďĂƐĞĚŽŶƐĞůĨͲƌĞƉŽƌƚ͕ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶƐǁĞƌĞĐůĂƐƐŝĮĞĚĂƐƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ͛ ĮƌƐƚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶŽƌŶŽƚ͘ STATISTIC AL ANALYSIS dŚĞƉƌŝŵĂƌLJĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƚĞĞŶĚͲƉŽŝŶƚǁĂƐĂŶLJŽīĞŶƐĞĚĞĮŶĞĚďLJŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌ͕ĐƌŝŵĞŽƌ ǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞ͘/ĨĂƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚŚĂĚĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚŵŽƌĞƚŚĂŶŽŶĞŽīĞŶƐĞŽŶĂƐŝŶŐůĞĚĂLJ͕ŽŶůLJ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƐĞǀĞƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞǁĂƐĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ͘ĂƐĞůŝŶĞǁĂƐĚĞĮŶĞĚĂƐƚŚĞĚĂƚĞŽĨĚŝƐĐŚĂƌŐĞ ĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ͘/ĨƚŚŝƐĚĂƚĞǁĂƐƵŶŬŶŽǁŶ͕ƚŚĞŵŝĚƉŽŝŶƚĚĂƚĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶ:ƵůLJϭϱ͕ϮϬϭϬĂŶĚĮƌƐƚ ƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞŽƌĞĐĞŵďĞƌϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϬ;ǁŚŝĐŚĞǀĞƌŽĐĐƵƌƌĞĚĮƌƐƚͿǁĂƐŝŵƉƵƚĞĚĨŽƌŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐ ǁŝƚŚĂƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞ͘&ŽƌƚŚŽƐĞǁŝƚŚŽƵƚĂƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞ͕:ƵůLJϭϱ͕ϮϬϭϬǁĂƐŝŵƉƵƚĞĚ͘&ŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĚƵŶƟůĚĞĂƚŚ͕ŵŽƐƚƌĞĐĞŶƚĚĂƚĞǁŝƚŚŽƵƚďĞŝŶŐŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚ͕ŽƌĚĂƚĞŽĨĚĂƚĂ ĞdžƚƌĂĐƟŽŶ;DĂƌĐŚϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱ͖ǁŚŝĐŚĞǀĞƌŽĐĐƵƌƌĞĚĮƌƐƚͿ͘^ŝŶĐĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐĐŽƵůĚďĞƌĞͲ ŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚ͕ĚƵƌŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚŶŽŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽƵůĚďĞĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ͕ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞǁĂƐĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚ ďLJƐƚƌĂƚƵŵǁŝƚŚŐĂƉͲƟŵĞƐ͘dŽƐƵŵŵĂƌŝnjĞ͕ƚŚĞŝŶŝƟĂůĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƐƚĂƌƚĞĚĂƚƚŚĞĚĂƚĞŽĨ ĚŝƐĐŚĂƌŐĞĂŶĚĞŶĚĞĚĂƚƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚ͘ĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌŝŽĚƐŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ were incorporated, beginning at the subsequent release date and ending at the date ŽĨƚŚĞŶĞdžƚŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚ͕ƵŶƟůƚŚĞůĂƐƚƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚ͘&ŽƌŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐŶŽƚĞŶĚŝŶŐ ƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚŽƌĚĞĂĚ͕ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁĂƐĐĞŶƐŽƌĞĚĂƚDĂƌĐŚϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱ͘

ϭϮϮ tĞ ĐŽŶĚƵĐƚĞĚ Ă ƌĞƉĞĂƚͲĞǀĞŶƚ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ͕ ŝŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌƐ ŽĨ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ ǁĞƌĞ ĚŝǀŝĚĞĚďĞƚǁĞĞŶŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐŽĨŽīĞŶƐĞƐ͘ƉĂƌĂŵĞƚƌŝĐƐƵƌǀŝǀĂůŵŽĚĞůĂƐƐƵŵŝŶŐĂtĞŝďƵůůͲ ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƚĞĚŚĂnjĂƌĚƌĂƚĞǁĂƐƵƐĞĚƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƐƌĞůĂƟǀĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĚƵƌŝŶŐĞĂĐŚLJĞĂƌŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲ ƵƉ͘/ŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĂĐĐŽƵŶƚĨŽƌƚŚĞƵŶŵĞĂƐƵƌĞĚŚĞƚĞƌŽŐĞŶĞŝƚLJŝŶŚĂnjĂƌĚƐŽďƐĞƌǀĞĚĂĐƌŽƐƐ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐ͕ĂŐĂŵŵĂͲĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƚĞĚĨƌĂŝůƚLJǁĂƐŝŶĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĚ͘zĞĂƌůLJŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨ ƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂŶĚƚŚĞŝƌϵϱйĐŽŶĮĚĞŶĐĞŝŶƚĞƌǀĂů;/ͿǁĞƌĞĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJĞƐƟŵĂƚĞĚĨƌŽŵƚŚŝƐ ŵŽĚĞů͘ŶĂůLJƐĞƐǁĞƌĞƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚŽŶĞĂĐŚŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůĞŶĚͲƉŽŝŶƚ;ŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌ͕ĐƌŝŵĞ ŽƌǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞͿĂŶĚǁĞƌĞƐƚƌĂƟĮĞĚŽŶƚĞƌƟůĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐŽĨ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ;ϬͲϭ͕ϮͲϯ͕ĂŶĚϯͿ͘ /ŶĂƌŝƐŬͲĨĂĐƚŽƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ͕ǁĞƐĞƉĂƌĂƚĞůLJŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐ;ŽďƚĂŝŶĞĚĂƚŝŶĐĂƌĐĞƌĂƟŽŶͿ ŽĨĂŶLJŽīĞŶƐĞƚŽƚŚĞŵŽĚĞů͕ĨƌŽŵǁŚŝĐŚƵŶŝǀĂƌŝĂďůĞŚĂnjĂƌĚƌĂƟŽƐ;,ZͿĂŶĚƚŚĞŝƌϵϱй ĐŽŶĮĚĞŶĐĞŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐ;/ƐͿǁĞƌĞĐĂůĐƵůĂƚĞĚ͘ĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐǁŝƚŚĂp чϬ͘ϭŝŶƵŶŝǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƌĞƌĞƚĂŝŶĞĚĂŶĚďĂĐŬǁĂƌĚƐƐĞůĞĐƟŽŶǁĂƐƵƐĞĚƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂĮŶĂůŵƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ ŵŽĚĞů͘dŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚŚĞŝŵƉĂĐƚŽĨŵƵůƟƉůĞĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƐƚƌĂƚĂ͕ĂŵƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞŵŽĚĞůǁŝƚŚ ƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŶƵŵďĞƌĂƐĐŽǀĂƌŝĂƚĞǁĂƐĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĚ͘ ůůĂŶĂůLJƐĞƐǁĞƌĞƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚƵƐŝŶŐ^dd;ǀϭϱ͘Ϭ͕ŽůůĞŐĞ^ƚĂƟŽŶ͕dy͕h^Ϳ͘ůůƐƚĂƟƐƟĐĂů ƚĞƐƚƐǁĞƌĞƚǁŽͲƐŝĚĞĚĂŶĚĂƉͲǀĂůƵĞŽĨфϬ͘ϬϱǁĂƐĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚ͘

RESULTS

/ŶƚŽƚĂů͕ϯϱϵŝŶŵĂƚĞƐǁĞƌĞĂƐŬĞĚƚŽƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ͘tŝƚŚŝŶƚŚŝƐŐƌŽƵƉ͕ϵϯ;Ϯϱ͘ϵйͿƌĞĨƵƐĞĚ͕Ϯϱ ;ϲ͘ϵйͿŚĂĚŝŶƐƵĸĐŝĞŶƚůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞƐŬŝůůƐƚŽďĞŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĞĚĂŶĚϳ;ϭ͘ϵйͿŚĂĚŽƚŚĞƌƌĞĂƐŽŶƐ ŶŽƚƚŽƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ͘/ŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐǁĞƌĞŚĞůĚǁŝƚŚϮϯϳŝŶŵĂƚĞƐ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ĚĞƐƉŝƚĞďĞŝŶŐ ŝŶŝƟĂůůLJŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚ͕ϮϳŝŶŵĂƚĞƐĚŝĚŶŽƚŵĞĞƚĂůůŝŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂĂŶĚϮŝŶŵĂƚĞƐĐŚŽƐĞŶŽƚ ƚŽĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁ͘/ŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĚĂƚĂǁĞƌĞĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞĨŽƌϮϬϴŵĂůĞŝŶŵĂƚĞƐ͘&ƌŽŵ ƚŚŝƐŐƌŽƵƉ͕ϭϬŝŶŵĂƚĞƐĐŽƵůĚŶŽƚďĞŵĂƚĐŚĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƉŽůŝĐĞƌĞŐŝƐƚƌLJ͕ϯŝŶŵĂƚĞƐƚƵƌŶĞĚ ŽƵƚŶŽƚƚŽŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶƌĞůĞĂƐĞĚĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĂƚĂůůŽƌŝƚǁĂƐƵŶĐůĞĂƌŝĨƚŚĞLJǁĞƌĞƌĞůĞĂƐĞĚ ĂƚĂůůĂŶĚϭŝŶŵĂƚĞĚŝĞĚƐŚŽƌƚůLJĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞ͘/ŶƚŽƚĂů͕ϭϵϰŝŶŵĂƚĞƐǁĞƌĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚŝŶ ƚŚĞĂŶĂůLJƐĞƐ͘ ^dhzWKWh>d/KE ůůƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁĞƌĞŵĂůĞĂŶĚƚŚĞŵĞĚŝĂŶĂŐĞǁĂƐϯϮ͘Ϭ;/YZсϮϰ͘ϯʹϰϮ͘ϴͿĂƚƚŚĞƟŵĞ ŽĨƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁ͘dŚĞƐĂŵƉůĞǁĂƐĞƚŚŶŝĐĂůůLJĚŝǀĞƌƐĞ͘ŵŝŶŽƌŝƚLJŽĨϭϱ͘ϱйǁĞƌĞĞƚŚŶŝĐ ƵƚĐŚĂŶĚϴϰ͘ϱйǁĞƌĞŶŽŶĞƚŚŶŝĐƵƚĐŚ͕ǁŝƚŚƚŚĞ^ƵƌŝŶĂŵĞƐĞ;Ϯϳ͘ϴйͿĂŶĚDŽƌŽĐĐĂŶ ;ϮϬ͘ϭйͿĞƚŚŶŝĐďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚďĞŝŶŐŵŽƐƚƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶƚ͘EĞĂƌůLJĂůůƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ;ϵϰ͘ϯйͿǁĞƌĞ ƐŝŶŐůĞĂŶĚϯϵ͘ϲйůŝǀĞĚĂůŽŶĞƉƌŝŽƌƚŽĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ͘ƌŽƵŶĚŚĂůĨ;ϰϳ͘ϵйͿŚĂĚĮŶŝƐŚĞĚŽŶůLJ

ϭϮϯ ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ͘ZŽƵŐŚůLJĂƚŚŝƌĚ;Ϯϳ͘ϲйͿŚĂĚŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞĚĨƌŽŵĂŶĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶůĞǀĞů ŚŝŐŚĞƌƚŚĂŶƐĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ͕ŵĂŬŝŶŐϯϭ͘ϬйƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͘dŚĞǀĂƐƚŵĂũŽƌŝƚLJ ƐĞůĨͲƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚƉƌŝŽƌĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶƉĞƌŝŽĚƐ;dĂďůĞ//Ϳ͘ &K>>KtͳhWd/D^͕Z//s/^D͕Zͳ/DWZ/^KEDEd^E^dZdhD^ tŚĞŶŝŐŶŽƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁŝƚŚŐĂƉͲƟŵĞƐŽĨŝŶĐĂƌĐĞƌĂƟŽŶ͕ƚŚĞŵĞĂŶĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁĂƐϰ͘ϱϯ LJĞĂƌƐ;SDсϬ͘ϰϵͿĂŶĚƚŚĞŵĞĚŝĂŶǁĂƐϰ͘ϲϬLJĞĂƌƐ;/YZсϰ͘ϯϭʹϰ͘ϳϲͿ͘&ŽůůŽǁͲƵƉĞŶĚĞĚ ĂƚƚŚĞĚĂƚĞŽĨĚĂƚĂĞdžƚƌĂĐƟŽŶĨŽƌŵŽƐƚ;ϵϲ͘ϵйͿŽƌĚĂƚĞŽĨĚĞĂƚŚ;ϯ͘ϭйͿ͘ dŚĞƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶŽĨƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚŝŶŵĂƚĞƐǁĂƐϰϳ͘ϰй͘&ŽƌƚŚŽƐĞǁŚŽǁĞƌĞƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚ͕ ƚŚĞĂǀĞƌĂŐĞŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐǁĂƐϭ͘ϴϲ;SD сϭ͘ϭϵͿǁŝƚŚĂŵĂdžŝŵƵŵŽĨϲĂŶĚ ƚŚĞĨŽůůŽǁŝŶŐĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟŽŶ͗ϭ͕Ŷсϱϭ͖Ϯ͕Ŷсϭϴ͖ϯ͕Ŷсϭϰ͖ϰ͕Ŷсϰ͖ϱ͕Ŷсϰ͖ϲ͕Ŷсϭ͘tŚĞŶ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁŝƚŚŐĂƉͲƟŵĞƐŽĨŝŶĐĂƌĐĞƌĂƟŽŶ͕ƚŚĞƌĞǁĞƌĞϮϴϱƉĞƌƐŽŶͲƐƚƌĂƚĂŽĨ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƉĞƌŝŽĚƐ͕ƌĞƐƵůƟŶŐŝŶĂŵĞĂŶƟŵĞͲĂƚͲƌŝƐŬŽĨϰ͘ϮϵLJĞĂƌƐ;SD сϬ͘ϳϭͿŽƌŵĞĚŝĂŶ ŽĨϰ͘ϰϵLJĞĂƌƐ;/YZсϰ͘ϭϴʹϰ͘ϳϭͿ͘ dŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶǁŝƚŚƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵǁĂƐϴϵ͘ϳй͘ZĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐƚƐƐŚŽǁĞĚĂŵĞĚŝĂŶŽĨ ϲŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ;/YZсϯʹϭϯͿ͘&ƌŽŵϭϱϲϱŽīĞŶƐĞƐŝŶƚŽƚĂů͕ϱϯϱ;ϯϰ͘ϮйͿǁĞƌĞ ŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ϳϭϯ;ϰϱ͘ϲйͿǁĞƌĞĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŶĚϯϭϳ;ϮϬ͘ϯйͿǁĞƌĞǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘KīĞŶĚĞƌƐ ŽĨŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ;ŶсϭϮϮͿƐŚŽǁĞĚĂŵĞĚŝĂŶŽĨϯŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ;/YZсϭʹϱͿ͘^ŝŵŝůĂƌůLJ͕ ƚŚĞŵĞĚŝĂŶŽĨĐƌŝŵĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚǁĂƐϰ;/YZсϭʹϳͿĂŶĚŽĨǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐϮ;/YZсϭʹ ϯͿ;dĂďůĞϭͿ͘

6

ϭϮϰ dĂďůĞϭ͘&ŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞƐ͕ƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂŶĚƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ;EсϭϵϰͿ ŵĞĂŶ;ƐĚͿ range ŵĞĚŝĂŶ;/YZͿ &ŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞ;LJĞĂƌƐͿ ϰ͘ϱϯ;Ϭ͘ϰϵͿ Ϭ͘ϮϰͲϱ͘Ϯϰ ϰ͘ϲϬ;ϰ͘ϯϭͲϰ͘ϳϲͿ dŝŵĞͲĂƚͲƌŝƐŬ;LJĞĂƌƐͿ ϰ͘Ϯϵ;Ϭ͘ϳϭͿ Ϭ͕ϮϰͲϱ͘Ϯϰ ϰ͘ϰϵ;ϰ͘ϭϴͲϰ͘ϳϭͿ ZĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ Ŷ;йͿ ƌĂŶŐĞΎ ŵĞĚŝĂŶ;/YZͿΎ ŶLJ ϭϳϰ;ϴϵ͘ϳͿ ϭͲϰϱ ϲ;ϯͲϭϯͿ DŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌ ϭϮϮ;ϲϮ͘ϵͿ ϭͲϮϱ ϯ;ϭͲϱͿ ƌŝŵĞ ϭϯϳ;ϳϬ͘ϲͿ ϭͲϯϲ ϰ;ϭͲϳͿ sŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞ ϭϮϭ;ϲϮ͘ϰͿ ϭͲϭϭ Ϯ;ϭͲϯͿ Ŷ;йͿ ƌĂŶŐĞΎ ŵĞĚŝĂŶ;/YZͿΎ ZĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ ϵϮ;ϰϳ͘ϰͿ ϭͲϲ ϭ;ϭͲϮ͘ϱͿ EŽƚĞ͘&ŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞdŝŵĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĚƵƌŝŶŐϮϬϭϬĂŶĚĚĂƚĞŽĨĚĂƚĂͲ ĞdžƚƌĂĐƟŽŶ;DĂLJϯϭ͕ϮϬϭϱͿĐŽƌƌĞĐƚĞĚĨŽƌ͚ůŽƐƚƚŽĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͛;ĚĞĂƚŚ͕ĚĂƚĞŽĨĚŝƐĐŚĂƌŐĞĨƌŽŵ ƉƌŝƐŽŶƚŚĂƚĞdžĐĞĞĚĞĚƚŚĞĚĂƚĞŽĨĚĂƚĂͲĞdžƚƌĂĐƟŽŶͿdŝŵĞͲĂƚͲƌŝƐŬdŝŵĞƐƉĞŶƚ͚ĂƚůŝďĞƌƚLJ͛ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞ/YZ/ŶƚĞƌƋƵĂƌƟůĞƌĂŶŐĞStratum EƵŵďĞƌŽĨĞƉŝƐŽĚĞƐ͚ĂƚůŝďĞƌƚLJ͛ǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƟŵĞ͘Ύ&ŽƌƚŚŽƐĞŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐǁŝƚŚĂŶĞǀĞŶƚ͘

TRENDS IN REOFFENDING OVER TIME

&ŝŐƵƌĞϭƐŚŽǁƐƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶLJĞĂƌƐĂƚLJĞĂƌůLJŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐ͕ ĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƌĞĐĞŶƚĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ͕ĨŽƌĂŶLJŽīĞŶƐĞĂŶĚĨŽƌŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ ĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐƐĞƉĂƌĂƚĞůLJ͘dŚŝƐĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁŝƚŚŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶͲ ƐƚƌĂƚƵŵƟŵĞƉĞƌŝŽĚƐ͘dŚĞĞƐƟŵĂƚĞĚŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞĨŽƌĂŶLJƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞǁĂƐŚŝŐŚĞƐƚŝŶƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ;ϯ͘ϴϳƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ͕ϵϱй/сϯ͘ϯϵʹϰ͘ϰϯͿ͘ ŌĞƌƚŚĞĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌ͕ƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐůŽǁůLJĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞĚƚŽϮ͘Ϯϭ;ϵϱй/сϭ͘ϵϬʹϮ͘ϱϲͿĂŶĚ ϭ͘ϱϵ;ϵϱй/сϭ͘ϯϱʹϭ͘ϴϴͿƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌŝŶLJĞĂƌƐϮĂŶĚϯ͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJ͕ĂŶĚĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ƚŽϬ͘ϮϬ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϭϱʹϬ͘ϮϲͿƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌĂƚLJĞĂƌϱ͘dŚĞƐĂŵĞƚƌĞŶĚǁĂƐŽďƐĞƌǀĞĚ ĨŽƌĞĂĐŚŽĨƚŚĞĚŝƐƟŶĐƚŽīĞŶƐĞͲĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝĞƐ͘KǀĞƌĂůů͕ƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞŽĨĐƌŝŵĞƐǁĂƐ ŚŝŐŚĞƐƚ͕ĨŽůůŽǁĞĚďLJŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ;&ŝŐƵƌĞϭͿ͘

ϭϮϱ



n 285 213 185 154 132

Fig. 1. Incidence rates for the overall

 &ŝŐƵƌĞϭ͘/ŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐĨŽƌƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƐƚƵĚLJƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶǁŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽĂŶLJĞǀĞŶƚĂŶĚƚŚĞ ĚŝƐƟŶĐƚŽīĞŶƐĞͲĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝĞƐŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘/ŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽĨͲ ĨĞŶƐĞƐĂƌĞŐŝǀĞŶĨƌŽŵŵŽĚĞůĞƐƟŵĂƚĞƐŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌƐ;ƉLJͿǁŝƚŚďĂƌƐŝŶĚŝĐĂƟŶŐϵϱйĐŽŶĮĚĞŶĐĞ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐ͘ĂĐŚn ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐŽŶĞƉĞƌƐŽŶͲƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘ tĞƚŚĞŶĐŽŵƉĂƌĞĚƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐďĂƐĞĚŽŶŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJŝŶƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ͕ǁŚŝĐŚǁĞĐůĂƐƐŝĮĞĚĂƐĮƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŝŶĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ;ϬͲϭ ŽīĞŶƐĞƐͿ͕ĮƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŵŽĚĞƌĂƚĞůLJĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ;ϮͲϯŽīĞŶƐĞƐͿĂŶĚĮƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŚŝŐŚůLJĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ ƌĞŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ;ϯнŽīĞŶƐĞƐͿ͘&ŝŐƵƌĞϮƐŚŽǁƐƚŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐ ŽǀĞƌƟŵĞĨŽƌĞĂĐŚŽĨƚŚĞƐĞŐƌŽƵƉƐ͘&ŝƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐƐŚŽǁĞĚƚŚĞŚŝŐŚĞƐƚ ŽǀĞƌĂůůŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘EŽŶĞƚŚĞůĞƐƐ͕ƚŚĞŝƌŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞ ĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞĚĨƌŽŵϳ͘ϰƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϲ͘ϰʹϴ͘ϱͿĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌ ŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƚŽϬ͘ϰƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϮʹϬ͘ϲͿĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞůĂƐƚLJĞĂƌ ŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘&ŝƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŵŽĚĞƌĂƚĞůLJĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞĚƐŝŵŝůĂƌĚĞĐůŝŶĞƐ ŽǀĞƌƚŚĞĐŽƵƌƐĞŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͕ǁŝƚŚϰ͘ϰƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϯ͘ϳʹϱ͘ϮͿ ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϭĚĞĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐƚŽϬ͘ϰƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϯʹϬ͘ϳͿĚƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞůĂƐƚLJĞĂƌŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘/ŶĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌƚǁŽŐƌŽƵƉƐ͕ƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞŽĨ ĮƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŝŶĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐƌĞŵĂŝŶĞĚƌĞůĂƟǀĞůLJƐƚĂďůĞĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ΀ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌ ϭ͕ϭ͘ϵͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϭ͘ϰʹϮ͘ϱͿ͖ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϱ͕Ϭ͘ϭͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϭʹϬ͘Ϯ͖ &ŝŐƵƌĞϮ΁͕ǁŚŽƐĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉƐďLJLJĞĂƌϱ͘

6

ϭϮϲ



0-1, n 138 110 97 86 78

2-3, n 69 49 39 30 25

>3, n 78 55 49 38 29

Fig. 2. Incidence rates for any reoffense based on model estimates in

±

&ŝŐƵƌĞ͘Ϯ͘ /ŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐĨŽƌĂŶLJƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞďĂƐĞĚŽŶŵŽĚĞůĞƐƟŵĂƚĞƐŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌƐ;ƉLJͿǁŝƚŚ ďĂƌƐŝŶĚŝĐĂƟŶŐϵϱйĐŽŶĮĚĞŶĐĞŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐ͘ĂĐŚn ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƉĞƌƐŽŶͲƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘/ŶĐŝͲ ĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐǁĞƌĞƐƚƌĂƟĮĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨĞǀĞŶƚƐ;ĂŶLJƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞͿǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚϭϮͲŵŽŶƚŚƐ ŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƚŚĂƚĚŝǀŝĚĞĚƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŝŶƚŚƌĞĞƚĞƌƟůĞƐ;ϬͲϭǀƐ͘ϮͲϯǀƐ͘ϯŽƌ ŵŽƌĞƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐŝŶĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉͿ dŚĞƐĞƚƌĞŶĚƐǁĞƌĞĂůƐŽŽďƐĞƌǀĞĚĨŽƌŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐĂŶĚĐƌŝŵĞƐƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJ͕ďƵƚŶŽƚ ĨŽƌǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐĂƐƚŚĞƌĞǁĞƌĞƚŽŽĨĞǁƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŚŽŚĂĚĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚĂǀŝŽůĞŶƚ ĐƌŝŵĞŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶ͘tŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ ĮƌƐƚͲLJĞĂƌŚŝŐŚůLJĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĚƚŽďĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĂĐƟǀĞŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐĚƵƌŝŶŐ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ΀ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϭ͕ϱ͘ϬͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϰ͘Ϭʹϲ͘ϯͿ͖ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϱ͕Ϭ͘ϮͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲ LJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϭͲϬ͘ϰͿ΁͘KīĞŶĚĞƌƐǁŚŽĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚŽŶĞŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌŽƌŶŽŶĞŝŶƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚϭϮŵŽŶƚŚƐǁĞƌĞůŝŬĞůLJƚŽĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĚŽŝŶŐƐŽĚƵƌŝŶŐƐƵďƐĞƋƵĞŶƚLJĞĂƌƐŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ ΀ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϭ͕Ϭ͘ϱͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϰʹϬ͘ϳͿ͖ĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌϱ͕Ϭ͘ϬϰͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌ ;ϵϱй/сϬ͘ϬϮͲϬ͘ϬϳͿ΁;ƐƵƉƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƌLJ&ŝŐƵƌĞϭĂĂŶĚϭďͿ͘ Wh>/DEd>,>d,ZdZD/EEd^ ĂƐĞĚŽŶĂƉŽƐŝƟǀĞ:D,^ĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚ͕ƚŚĞƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŽĨŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚƉƌŽďůĞŵƐǁĂƐ ϰϵ͘Ϭй͘dŚĞƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŽĨ^hǁĂƐϰϱ͘ϭй͕ďĞŝŶŐĞŝƚŚĞƌĂůĐŽŚŽů;ϯϬ͘ϯйͿ͕ŽƉŝĂƚĞ;ϭϱ͘ϲйͿ ŽƌĐŽĐĂŝŶĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ;ϭϬ͘ϬйͿ͘WƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞǀĂƌŝĞĚǁŝƚŚĂŶƟƐŽĐŝĂůWĂƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ ƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶƚ;ϲϮ͘ϳйͿ͕ĨŽůůŽǁĞĚďLJŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐ;ϰϰ͘ϴйͿ͕ďŽƌĚĞƌůŝŶĞ;ϯϲ͘ϲйͿ͕ƉĂƌĂŶŽŝĚ;ϭϳ͘ϬйͿ͕ ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ;ϱ͘ϵйͿĂŶĚŚŝƐƚƌŝŽŶŝĐW;ϱ͘ϳйͿ͘ŶLJWǁĂƐĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚĨŽƌϳϲ͘ϵйŽĨƚŚĞ ƐĂŵƉůĞ͘&ŝŶĂŶĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵƐǁĞƌĞĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚĨŽƌϲϭ͘ϴйŽĨĂůůƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ͕Ϯϯ͘ϱйŚĂĚĂ ŚŽƵƐŝŶŐƉƌŽďůĞŵĂŶĚϰϮ͘ϴйŚĂĚĂƉƌŽďůĞŵĐŽŶĐĞƌŶŝŶŐĚĂLJƟŵĞĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ;dĂďůĞϮͿ͘

ϭϮϳ dĂďůĞϮ͘ƐƐŽĐŝĂƟŽŶŽĨĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐ͕ďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĂůĂŶĚĐůŝŶŝĐĂůĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƟĐƐĂŶĚĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJŽĨ ŽīĞŶƐĞƐ;ŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐ͕ĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐͿ hŶŝǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ DƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ;ĂĚũ͘ƐƚƌĂƚƵŵͿ sĂƌŝĂďůĞƐ Ŷ;йͿ ,Z;ϵϱй/Ϳ p ,Z;ϵϱй/Ϳ p ŐĞ;ƉĞƌLJĞĂƌͿ фϮϯ ϯϲ;ϭϴ͘ϲͿ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϮϯͲϮϴ ϰϮ;Ϯϭ͘ϲͿ Ϭ͘ϱϬ;Ϭ͘ϯϴͲϬ͘ϲϱͿ фϬ͘ϬϬϭ Ϭ͘ϱϱ;Ϭ͘ϯϴͲϬ͘ϴϬͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϮ Ϯϴн ϭϭϲ;ϱϵ͘ϴͿ Ϭ͘ϰϴ;Ϭ͘ϯϱͲϬ͘ϲϲͿ фϬ͘ϬϬϭ Ϭ͘ϰϵ;Ϭ͘ϯϮͲϬ͘ϳϯͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϭ DĂƌŝƚĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐ ^ŝŶŐůĞ;ǀƐ͘ŵĂƌƌŝĞĚͬƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐŚŝƉͿ ϭϴϭ;ϵϰ͘ϯͿ Ϯ͘ϱϯ;ϭ͘ϰϬͲϰ͘ϱϴͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϮ ϯ͘Ϭϴ;ϭ͘ϱϬͲϲ͘ϯϮͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϮ Ethnicity EŽŶĞƚŚŶŝĐƵƚĐŚ;ǀƐ͘ƵƚĐŚͿ ϭϲϲ;ϴϲ͘ϬͿ ϭ͘Ϯϳ;Ϭ͘ϵϬͲϭ͘ϴϬͿ Ϭ͘ϭϴ >ŝǀŝŶŐĂůŽŶĞďĞĨŽƌĞĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ;LJĞƐ ǀƐ͘ŶŽͿ ϳϲ;ϯϵ͘ϲͿ ϭ͘ϭϭ;Ϭ͘ϴϳͲϭ͘ϰϭͿ Ϭ͘ϰ ,ŝŐŚĞƐƚůĞǀĞůŽĨĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ WƌŝŵĂƌLJͬŶŽŶĞ ϵϮ;ϰϳ͘ϵͿ ϭ͘ϬϬ ^ĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJ ϰϳ;Ϯϰ͘ϱͿ Ϭ͘ϳϮ;Ϭ͘ϱϰͲϬ͘ϵϳͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϯ dĞƌƟĂƌLJ ϯϵ;ϮϬ͘ϯͿ Ϭ͘ϴϱ;Ϭ͘ϲϮͲϭ͘ϭϲͿ Ϭ͘ϯ Higher ϭϰ;ϳ͘ϯͿ Ϭ͘ϳϯ;Ϭ͘ϰϱͲϭ͘ϭϵͿ Ϭ͘Ϯ WƌŝŽƌĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶ ϭϱϵ;ϴϮ͘ϰͿ Ϭ͘ϵϰ;Ϭ͘ϲϵͲϭ͘ϮϴͿ Ϭ͘ϳ EŽƚƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ ϭϭϴ;ϲϵ͘ϬͿ ϭ͘Ϯϵ;Ϭ͘ϵϵͲϭ͘ϲϳͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϲ ϭ͘ϰϮ;ϭ͘ϬϳͲϭ͘ϴϵͿ Ϭ͘ϬϮ DĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚ DĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚƉƌŽďůĞŵ;:D,^Ϳ ϵϱ;ϰϵ͘ϬͿ ϭ͘ϬϬ;Ϭ͘ϳϵͲϭ͘ϮϳͿ Ϭ͘ϵ ^ƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ͕ĂŶLJ ϴϯ;ϰϱ͘ϭͿ ϭ͘ϱϯ;ϭ͘ϮϭͲϭ͘ϵϰͿ фϬ͘ϬϬϭ ůĐŽŚŽůĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ ϱϳ;ϯϬ͘ϯͿ ϭ͘Ϯϰ;Ϭ͘ϵϲͲϭ͘ϲϭͿ Ϭ͘ϭϬ ŽĐĂŝŶĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ ϭϴ;ϭϬ͘ϬͿ ϭ͘ϱϬ;ϭ͘ϬϭͲϮ͘ϮϰͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϰ ϭ͘ϴϲ;ϭ͘ϮϭͲϮ͘ϴϱͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϱ KƉŝĂƚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ ϯϬ;ϭϱ͘ϲͿ ϭ͘ϯϳ;ϭ͘ϬϬͲϭ͘ϴϵͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϱ WĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌƐ Dependent ϭϭ;ϱ͘ϵͿ Ϭ͘ϵϱ;Ϭ͘ϱϲͲϭ͘ϲϮͿ Ϭ͘ϵ ŶƟƐŽĐŝĂů ϭϭϲ;ϲϮ͘ϳͿ ϭ͘ϯϴ;ϭ͘ϬϳͲϭ͘ϳϳͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϭ ŽƌĚĞƌůŝŶĞ ϲϴ;ϯϲ͘ϲͿ ϭ͘ϭϲ;Ϭ͘ϵϬͲϭ͘ϰϵͿ Ϭ͘ϯ EĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐ ϴϮ;ϰϰ͘ϴͿ ϭ͘ϯϲ;ϭ͘ϬϳͲϭ͘ϳϰͿ Ϭ͘Ϭϭ ϭ͘ϰϭ;ϭ͘ϬϵͲϭ͘ϴϯͿ Ϭ͘ϬϬϵ WĂƌĂŶŽŝĚ ϯϮ;ϭϳ͘ϬͿ Ϭ͘ϵϳ;Ϭ͘ϳϬͲϭ͘ϯϱͿ Ϭ͘ϵ Histrionic ϭϭ;ϱ͘ϳͿ ϭ͘ϯϬ;Ϭ͘ϳϵͲϮ͘ϭϰͿ Ϭ͘ϯ

6

ϭϮϴ dĂďůĞϮ͘ŽŶƟŶƵĞĚ͘ hŶŝǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ DƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ;ĂĚũ͘ƐƚƌĂƚƵŵͿ sĂƌŝĂďůĞƐ Ŷ;йͿ ,Z;ϵϱй/Ϳ p ,Z;ϵϱй/Ϳ p ^ŽĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ Homelessness ϰϰ;Ϯϯ͘ϱͿ ϭ͘Ϭϳ;Ϭ͘ϴϬͲϭ͘ϰϮͿ Ϭ͘ϳ EŽǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ϴϯ;ϰϮ͘ϴͿ ϭ͘ϬϮ;Ϭ͘ϴϬͲϭ͘ϮϵͿ Ϭ͘ϵ EŽŝŶĐŽŵĞĂŶĚĚĞďƚƐхΦϭϬϬϬ ϭϭϴ;ϲϭ͘ϴͿ ϭ͘ϬϬ;Ϭ͘ϳϴͲϭ͘ϮϵͿ Ϭ͘ϵ Note. /ŶƚŚĞŵƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŶƵŵďĞƌǁĂƐĂĚĚĞĚĂƐĂĐŽǀĂƌŝĂƚĞ͖HR,ĂnjĂƌĚƌĂƟŽ͖ ϵϱй/ϵϱйĐŽŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞŝŶƚĞƌǀĂů͖BJMHS ƌŝĞĨ:ĂŝůDĞŶƚĂů,ĞĂůƚŚ^ĐƌĞĞŶ͘&ŽƌĞĂĐŚƉƌĞĚŝĐƚŽƌ ǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ͞ŶŽ͟ǁĂƐƚŚĞƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞĐĂƚĞŐŽƌLJĂŶĚ͞LJĞƐ͟ƚŚĞĐĂƚĞŐŽƌLJǁŝƚŚĂŚŝŐŚĞƌĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚƌŝƐŬ ŽĨĂŶĞǀĞŶƚ͕ƵŶůĞƐƐƐƚĂƚĞĚŽƚŚĞƌǁŝƐĞ;ŝŶƉĂƌĞŶƚŚĞƐĞƐͿ͘ Ύ/ŶŵƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ͕ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJƉƌŽďůĞŵƐǁĞƌĞƉƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚŽǀĞƌĂŶLJƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞ ƵƐĞĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌ͘ŽĐĂŝŶĞĂŶĚŽƉŝĂƚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJǁĞƌĞŚŝŐŚůLJĐŽůůŝŶĞĂƌĂŶĚǁĞƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚĐŽĐĂŝŶĞ ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ͘ŶƟƐŽĐŝĂůƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌǁĂƐĞdžĐůƵĚĞĚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŵŽĚĞůĂƐŝƚƐĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚ ƉͲǀĂůƵĞǁĂƐŶŽůŽŶŐĞƌďĞůŽǁƚŚĞƚŚƌĞƐŚŽůĚĨŽƌŵŽĚĞůƐĞůĞĐƟŽŶ;pсϬ͘ϱϵϮͿ͘dŽĂĐĐŽƵŶƚĨŽƌ ƉĞƌŝŽĚƐĂƚůŝďĞƌƚLJǁŝƚŚŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶƐ͕ƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŶƵŵďĞƌǁĂƐĂĚĚĞĚĂƐĂĐŽǀĂƌŝĂƚĞ͘ A.



A



Not dep., n 136 109 97 83 74 Dep., n 125 92 79 64 53 

B

ϭϮϵ ͘



Dep., n 125 92 79 64 53 

B





Not NPD, n 147 110 95 77 70 NPD., n 126 92 79 66 52

Fig. 3.

_{&ŝŐƵƌĞϯ͘ /ŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐĨŽƌĂŶLJƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞĂƌĞŐŝǀĞŶĨƌŽŵŵŽĚĞůĞƐƟŵĂƚĞƐŝŶƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌƐ} ;ƉLJͿǁŝƚŚďĂƌƐŝŶĚŝĐĂƟŶŐϵϱйĐŽŶĮĚĞŶĐĞŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐ͘ƐƟŵĂƚĞƐĂƌĞƐƚƌĂƟĮĞĚŽŶ;ͿƉƌĞƐĞŶĐĞŽƌ ĂďƐĞŶĐĞŽĨƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂƚďĂƐĞͲůŝŶĞ;ĂƐĂƐƐĞƐƐĞĚĚƵƌŝŶŐĚĞƚĞŶƟŽŶͿŽƌŽŶ ;ͿƉƌĞƐĞŶĐĞŽƌĂďƐĞŶĐĞŽĨŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJĚŝƐŽƌĚĞƌ;EWͿĂƚďĂƐĞͲůŝŶĞ͘ĂĐŚn represents ƉĞƌƐŽŶͲƐƚƌĂƚƵŵŽĨĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͘ dZD/EEd^K&ZhZZEdZK&&E/E' /ŶƚŚĞƵŶŝǀĂƌŝĂďůĞƌĞƉĞĂƚͲĞǀĞŶƚĂŶĂůLJƐĞƐ͕ƚŚĞǀĂƌŝĂďůĞƐĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŽǀĞƌĂůůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ǁĞƌĞĂŐĞ͕ŵĂƌŝƚĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐ͕ŶŽƚďĞŝŶŐƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͕ƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ;ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ĐŽĐĂŝŶĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJĂŶĚŽƉŝĂƚĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJͿ͕ƚŚĞĂŶƟƐŽĐŝĂůW;^WͿĂŶĚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐ W;EWͿ͘DƵůƟǀĂƌŝĂďůĞĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐƌĞǀĞĂůĞĚƚŚĂƚĂŐĞ͕ŵĂƌŝƚĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐ͕ŶŽƚďĞŝŶŐƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌ ůĂďŽƌ͕ĐŽĐĂŝŶĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJĂŶĚEWǁĞƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚůLJĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŽǀĞƌĂůůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ ;dĂďůĞ//Ϳ͘ /E&>hEK&zED/Z/^<&dKZ^KEZK&&E/E'KsZd/D &ŝŐƵƌĞϯĂĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐƚŚĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞŝŶŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ ǁŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽ^h͘dŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁĂƐŚŝŐŚĞƌ ĨŽƌƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ;ϱ͘ϬĂŶĚϮ͘ϲͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌƐϭĂŶĚϮ͕ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJͿƚŚĂŶĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌŶŽŶĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚĐŽƵŶƚĞƌƉĂƌƚƐ;ϯ͘ϬĂŶĚϭ͘ϴͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌĚƵƌŝŶŐ LJĞĂƌƐϭĂŶĚϮ͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJͿ͘ƚLJĞĂƌϯ͕ƚŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨďŽƚŚŐƌŽƵƉƐĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚ͘ &ŝŐƵƌĞϯďĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐƚŚĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞŝŶŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽEW͘ dŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉǁĂƐŚŝŐŚĞƌĨŽƌƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚEW ;ϰ͘ϲĂŶĚϮ͘ϲͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌƐϭĂŶĚϮ͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJͿƚŚĂŶĨŽƌƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚŽƵƚ

6

ϭϯϬ EW;ϯ͘ϯĂŶĚϭ͘ϴͬƉĞƌƐŽŶͲLJĞĂƌĚƵƌŝŶŐLJĞĂƌƐϭĂŶĚϮ͕ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞůLJͿ͘ŐĂŝŶĂƚLJĞĂƌϯ͕ƚŚĞ ŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨďŽƚŚŐƌŽƵƉƐĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚ͘

DISCUSSION

dŚŝƐƐƚƵĚLJĂƉƉůŝĞĚĂƌĞƉĞĂƚͲĞǀĞŶƚĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚƌĞŶĚƐŝŶƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ ĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĂŵŽŶŐƐŚŽƌƚͲĚĞƚĂŝŶĞĚŵĂůĞƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐĂŶĚƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJǁŚŝĐŚ WD,ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĂƐŝƚŽĐĐƵƌƌĞĚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ͘/ŶĂϱͲLJĞĂƌ ĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉƉĞƌŝŽĚ͕ƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶǁŝƚŚƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵǁĂƐϴϳйĂŶĚƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶƌĞͲ ŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶĞĚǁĂƐϰϳй͘KĨĂůůƌĞŽīĞŶƐĞƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĚ͕ĐƌŝŵĞƐǁĞƌĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚ͕ ĨŽůůŽǁĞĚďLJŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐĂŶĚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘dŚĞŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐŽĨĞĂĐŚŽīĞŶƐĞ ĐĂƚĞŐŽƌLJ͕ǁŚŝůĞĂĐĐŽƵŶƟŶŐĨŽƌƌĞͲŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚƐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͕ǁĞƌĞŚŝŐŚĞƐƚŝŶƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌĂŌĞƌƉƌŝƐŽŶĂŶĚŐƌĂĚƵĂůůLJĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞĚǁŝƚŚƟŵĞ͘/ŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐŵŽƌĞĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJ ŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌĂŌĞƌƌĞůĞĂƐĞĨƌŽŵƉƌŝƐŽŶƐŚŽǁĞĚƚŚĞŚŝŐŚĞƐƚŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞƌĂƚĞƐ ŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐĨŽůůŽǁͲƵƉ͕ǁŚŝůĞƚŚŝƐǁĂƐŵŽƐƚĂƉƉĂƌĞŶƚĨŽƌŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͘ ŽŶǀĞƌƐĞůLJ͕ƚŚŽƐĞŝŶĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞĮƌƐƚLJĞĂƌĂůƐŽƌĞŵĂŝŶĞĚƚŚĞůĞĂƐƚĂĐƟǀĞ ŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ͘ WƌĞǀĂůĞŶĐĞŽĨWD,ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐǁĞƌĞŚŝŐŚ͘dŚĞƐĞĐŽŶĐĞƌŶĞĚŵĞŶƚĂůŚĞĂůƚŚƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ͕ among which substance dependency and personality disorders, and social problems ĐŽŶĐĞƌŶŝŶŐĮŶĂŶĐĞƐ͕ǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶĂŶĚŚŽƵƐŝŶŐ͘dŚĞĂŶĂůLJƐĞƐŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚLJŽƵŶŐĞƌĂŐĞ͕ ďĞŝŶŐƐŝŶŐůĞ͕ƵŶƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͕ƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJĂŶĚEWĂƐŵŽƐƚƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJ ĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ͘^ƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJǁĂƐŵŽƌĞ ĐůŽƐĞůLJĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ǁŚĞƌĞĂƐEWǁĂƐŵŽƌĞĐůŽƐĞůLJůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘ tŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽĂŐĞ͕LJŽƵŶŐĞƌƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ;фϮϯͿƐŚŽǁĞĚƚŚĞŚŝŐŚĞƐƚŚĂnjĂƌĚƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ dŚŝƐĮŶĚŝŶŐŝƐŝŶĂĐĐŽƌĚĂŶĐĞǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĂŐĞͲĐƌŝŵĞĐƵƌǀĞ͕ǁŚŝĐŚŚĂƐďĞĞŶŽŌĞŶƌĞƉůŝĐĂƚĞĚ ŝŶĐƌŝŵŝŶŽůŽŐLJ;,ŝƌƐĐŚŝΘ'ŽƪƌĞĚƐŽŶ͕ϭϵϴϯͿ͘/ƚŝƐĂůƐŽĐŽŶŐƌƵĞŶƚǁŝƚŚĮŶĚŝŶŐƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐĂĚƵůƚŚŽŽĚůŝƚĞƌĂƚƵƌĞ;ƌŶĞƩĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϰͿƚŚĂƚĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞƚŚĞϭϴͲϮϱLJĞĂƌŽůĚĂŐĞ ƐƉĂŶǁŝƚŚĞƐĐĂůĂƟŽŶŽĨĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ;ƺŶŬĞůΘWƌƵŝŶ͕ϮϬϭϮͿ͘^ƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ ŝƐĂǁĞůůŬŶŽǁŶƌŝƐŬͲĨĂĐƚŽƌĨŽƌĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ;ŶĚƌĞǁƐΘŽŶƚĂ͕ϮϬϭϬ͖ŽŶƚĂĞƚĂů͕͘ ϮϬϭϰ͖&ĂnjĞůĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϲͿ͘&ŽƌƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ͕ƉŽƐŝƟǀĞƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞŵĞŶƚ ΀Ğ͘Ő͕͘ƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐĨŽƌƐŽĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐ,ŽƵƐŝŶŐ&ŝƌƐƚ;dƐĞŵďĞƌŝƐĞƚ Ăů͕͘ϮϬϬϰͿ΁ŚĂƐďĞĞŶƐŚŽǁŶƚŽďĞŵŽƌĞĞīĞĐƟǀĞƚŚĂŶŶĞŐĂƟǀĞƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞŵĞŶƚ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ ŝŵƉƌŝƐŽŶŵĞŶƚͿ͘&ŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ͕ƚŚĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞŵĞŶƚĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ͕ĂƚƌĞĂƚŵĞŶƚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĐŚƌŽŶŝĐĂĚĚŝĐƟŽŶďĂƐĞĚŽŶƉŽƐŝƟǀĞƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞŵĞŶƚ͕ĞdžĞƌƚƐƉŽƐŝƟǀĞůŽŶŐͲ ƚĞƌŵĞīĞĐƚƐŽŶƚŚĞĐŽƵƌƐĞŽĨŽŶĞ͛ƐĂĚĚŝĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƚŚĞĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞƌĞǁŝƚŚ;ŝũŬƐƚƌĂĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϮͿ͘

ϭϯϭ ŽƚŚĂŶƟƐŽĐŝĂůW;^WͿĂŶĚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐW;EWͿǁĞƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĂŶƚƐŽĨ ƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘&Žƌ^W͕ƚŚĞƌĞŝƐĂŶĞǀŝĚĞŶƚ͕ƉĞƌŚĂƉƐĞǀĞŶƚĂƵƚŽůŽŐŝĐĂů͕ƌĞůĂƟŽŶǁŝƚŚ ƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘dŚĂƚŝƐ͕ĨĂŝůƵƌĞƚŽĐŽŶĨŽƌŵƚŽƐŽĐŝĂůŶŽƌŵƐǁŝƚŚƌĞƐƉĞĐƚƚŽůĂǁĨƵůŽƌĞƚŚŝĐĂů ďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ͕ĂƐŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞĚďLJƌĞƉĞĂƚĞĚůLJƉĞƌĨŽƌŵŝŶŐĂĐƚƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞŐƌŽƵŶĚƐĨŽƌĂƌƌĞƐƚ͕ŝƐĂŶ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĐƌŝƚĞƌŝŽŶĨŽƌƚŚĞĚŝĂŐŶŽƐŝƐŽĨ^W;ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶWƐLJĐŚŝĂƚƌŝĐƐƐŽĐŝĂƟŽŶ͕ϮϬϬϬ͕ ϮϬϭϯͿ͘WƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐǁŝƚŚEWƐŚŽǁĞĚŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚŚĂnjĂƌĚƐŽĨƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͕ǁŚŝĐŚǁĂƐŵŽƌĞ ĂƉƉĂƌĞŶƚĨŽƌĐƌŝŵĞƐ͘dŚĞůŝŶŬďĞƚǁĞĞŶEWĂŶĚĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌŝƐŶŽƚǁĞůůƵŶĚĞƌƐƚŽŽĚ ;ĂůŝŐŽƌĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϭϱͿ͘EŽŶĞƚŚĞůĞƐƐ͕ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƌĞƉĞĂƚĞĚůLJĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚĞƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶĂĚĂƉƟǀĞ ĂŶĚŵĂůĂĚĂƉƟǀĞĨĞĂƚƵƌĞƐŽĨŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐŵ͕ŽƌĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůĞǀĞůƐŽĨŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐŵƚŚĂƚƌĂŶŐĞĨƌŽŵ ƚƌĂŝƚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐŵ;ŝ͘Ğ͘ƐƵďĐůŝŶŝĐĂůͿƚŽEW;ĂƌƌLJĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϳ͖ŵŵŽŶƐ͕ϭϵϴϰͿ͘ŵŽŶŐ ĂĚƵůƚƐ͕EWŝƐĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝnjĞĚďLJĨĞĞůŝŶŐƐŽĨĞŶƟƚůĞŵĞŶƚ͕ǁŝůůŝŶŐŶĞƐƐƚŽĞdžƉůŽŝƚŽƚŚĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚƚŚĞĚĞƐŝƌĞƚŽďĞƚŚĞĐĞŶƚĞƌŽĨĂƩĞŶƟŽŶ͘dŚĞƐĞĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƟĐƐŵĂLJƚƌĂŶƐůĂƚĞŝŶƚŽ ŝŵƉƵůƐŝǀĞ͕ƐĞŶƐĂƟŽŶƐĞĞŬŝŶŐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƐŽĐŝĂůůLJĚLJƐĨƵŶĐƟŽŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐ͕ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ;ŵŵŽŶƐ͕ϭϵϴϰ͖ZĂƐŬŝŶΘdĞƌƌLJ͕ϭϵϴϴͿ͘&ĞĞůŝŶŐƐŽĨĞŶƟƚůĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ ǁŝůůŝŶŐŶĞƐƐƚŽĞdžƉůŽŝƚŽƚŚĞƌƐĂƌĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƐŽĐŝĂůůLJŵĂůĂĚĂƉƟǀĞĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƟĐƐ ŽĨEW;ĂŵƉďĞůůΘ&ŽƐƚĞƌ͕ϮϬϬϳͿĂŶĚŵĂLJƌĞůĂƚĞƚŽĐŽŵŵŝƫŶŐĐƌŝŵĞƐ͕ŶĂŵĞůLJƚŚĞŌ ĂŶĚĨƌĂƵĚ͘ ,ĞƉƉĞƌĞƚĂů͘;ϮϬϭϰͿĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚƚŚĞƉŽƐƐŝďůĞŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐŝŶǁŚŝĐŚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐŵĐŽƵůĚůĞĂĚ ƚŽĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĂŶĚĨŽƵŶĚĞǀŝĚĞŶĐĞƚŚĂƚŶĂƌĐŝƐƐŝƐƟĐĞŶƟƚůĞŵĞŶƚĂĐĐŽƵŶƚĞĚĨŽƌĂ ŚŝŐŚĞƌƉƌŽďĂďŝůŝƚLJŽĨĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƚŚƌŽƵŐŚůĂĐŬŽĨĞŵƉĂƚŚLJ͘ŐĂŝŶ͕ƚŚŝƐƌĞƐŽŶĂƚĞƐ ǁŝƚŚĐŽŵŵŝƫŶŐ;ǀŝŽůĞŶƚͿĐƌŝŵĞƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚĂůƚŽŵŽŶĞƚĂƌLJŐĂŝŶƐ͕ƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŚĞŌ ĂŶĚĨƌĂƵĚ͕ďƵƚůĞƐƐƐŽǁŝƚŚǀŝŽůĞŶƚĐƌŝŵĞƐĂŐĂŝŶƐƚƉĞŽƉůĞ;Ğ͘Ő͕͘ďĂƩĞƌLJ͕ĂƐƐĂƵůƚͿĂŶĚ ŵŝƐĚĞŵĞĂŶŽƌƐ͕ĂƐƐŚŽǁŶŝŶŽƵƌƐƚƵĚLJ͘ŶĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵĐŽƵůĚďĞƚŚĂƚĂŵŽŶŐ ŽīĞŶĚĞƌƐ͕EWĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞƐĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĨƌŽŵĂĚĞƐŝƌĞƚŽďĞĂĚŵŝƌĞĚ;ZĂƐŬŝŶΘ dĞƌƌLJ͕ϭϵϴϴͿĂŶĚͬŽƌƚŽĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĂŶĚŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶƐŽĐŝĂůƐƚĂƚƵƐĂŵŽŶŐĐƌŝŵŝŶĂůƉĞĞƌƐ;ĂƌƌLJ ĞƚĂů͕͘ϮϬϬϵͿ͘ ŽŶƚƌĂƌLJƚŽǁŚĂƚǁĂƐĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ͕ŶŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞƐŽĐŝĂůƉƌŽďůĞŵƐŚŽŵĞůĞƐƐŶĞƐƐ͕ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂŶĚůĂĐŬŽĨǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶǁĞƌĞĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌůŽŶŐŝƚƵĚŝŶĂůƐƚƵĚLJ͕ĐŽŶĚƵĐƚĞĚŝŶĂƐĂŵƉůĞŽĨ&ƌĞŶĐŚĞdžͲƉƌŝƐŽŶĞƌƐ͕ĂůƐŽĚŝƐƉƵƚĞĚ ƚŚĞĞīĞĐƚŽĨŚŽŵĞůĞƐƐŶĞƐƐŽŶƌĞĐŝĚŝǀŝƐŵ;DŽŶŶĞƌLJ͕ϮϬϭϱͿ͘ůƚŚŽƵŐŚŶŽĞīĞĐƚďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ůĂĐŬŽĨǁŽƌŬͬĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐǁĂƐŽďƐĞƌǀĞĚ͕ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶƐƚĂƚƵƐĂŶĚŝƚƐĐůŽƐĞůLJ ĚĞƌŝǀĞĚƌŝƐŬͲĨĂĐƚŽƌ͕͚ƋƵĂůŝĮĞĚĨŽƌůĂďŽƌ͕͛ǁĞƌĞĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚƌĞŽīĞŶĚŝŶŐ͘ĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ƐƚĂƚƵƐĂŶĚĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶĂƌĞĞǀŝĚĞŶƚůLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ƚŚĞƌĞŝƐĂŶŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ͗ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶƐƚĂƚƵƐŝƐŵŽƌĞůŝŬĞůLJĂƉƌŽdžLJŵĞĂƐƵƌĞŽĨŽŶĞ͛Ɛ ĐŽŐŶŝƟǀĞͬŝŶƚĞůůĞĐƚƵĂůĐĂƉĂĐŝƟĞƐ͕ŽƌƉĞƌŚĂƉƐĞǀĞŶĞdžƉŽƐƵƌĞƚŽĐŚŝůĚŚŽŽĚĂĚǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐ͕

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