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– December 28, 2011 Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET December 22

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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7566. Questions about the USAID FEWSNET activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for FEWSNET, 1-202- 219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

December 22 – December 28, 2011

Moisture deficits in northern Hispaniola may negatively affect winter cropping activities.

During the last observation period, little to no precipitation was observed throughout Hispaniola. The highest seven day rainfall amounts (5-10 mm) were received throughout some local areas in the southern peninsula with lesser amounts received across the central and northern parts of the island. In the last 30 days, much of Hispaniola has received less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation, with many local areas in central and northern Hispaniola observing less than a quarter of their normal rainfall amounts since mid-November. This winter dryness has followed a poor end to summer rainfall season across much of Haiti. Long-term moisture deficits have lead to degraded pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and will likely impede winter crop development across parts of northern Hispaniola. Precipitation forecasts suggest another week of suppressed rainfall (<5mm) across the western portion of Hispaniola with light rainfall amounts (5-20mm) expected over eastern Dominican Republic.

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However, the little amounts of rainfall during the past thirty days have been insufficient to compensate the persistent weak to moderate (20 – 50 mm) moisture deficits

Widespread rainfall amounts ranging between 5-20mm were received in many departments, with the heaviest rainfall (&gt;30mm) centered across the central Haiti

For the next seven days, light to moderate rains are forecast across Hispaniola (5-20mm) with locally higher amounts of rain (&gt;20mm) possible across central/eastern Dominican

For the upcoming outlook period, light to moderate precipitation accumulations (20 – 50 mm) are expected across the island; with the potential for the heaviest (&gt; 50 mm)

Model forecasts show a more seasonable distribution of rainfall for the upcoming outlook period; however the potential for above-average rainfall remains for many local areas

While the Dec-Mar rains are climatologically low over Hispaniola, many local areas in the central, north, northeast, and northwest departments have experienced prolonged dry

The highest seven day rainfall accumulations (&gt;75mm) were observed across eastern Haiti and central Dominican Republic, with favorable amounts of rainfall

As Hispaniola rainfall in December is climatologically lighter than November, a significant increase in moisture to help alleviate ground conditions is not likely across parts