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The Implications of Simple Estimates of the 2D Outerscale Based on Measurements

of Magnetic Islands for the Modulation of Galactic Cosmic-Ray Electrons

N. E. Engelbrecht1,2 1

Center for Space Research, North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2522, South Africa;n.eugene.engelbrecht@gmail.com

2

National Institute for Theoretical Physics(NITheP), Gauteng, South Africa

Received 2018 October 22; revised 2019 January 7; accepted 2019 January 13; published 2019 February 19 Abstract

The behavior of the 2D turbulence power spectrum at the lowest wavenumbers has a significant effect on the perpendicular diffusion coefficients of charged particles in the heliosphere derived from various scattering theories, and subsequently used to model the transport of cosmic rays(CRs) and solar energetic particles. In this regard, the lengthscale at which the energy-containing range begins, as opposed to that at which the inertial range commences, is of particular interest. This 2D outerscale has, however, never before been directly observed. Recently, direct measurements of magnetic islands in the solar wind have been reported by various authors. Assuming that these may provide an estimate of the 2D ultrascale, the direct calculation of the 2D outerscale becomes possible, should an observationally motivated form for the 2D turbulence power spectrum be employed. This study presents the results of such a calculation and provides comparisons of these with previous estimates of the 2D outerscale. Furthermore, the sensitivity of galactic CR electron intensities, calculated using a 3D ab initio CR modulation model, is demonstrated, and conclusions are drawn therefrom.

Key words: solar wind– Sun: heliosphere – turbulence

1. Introduction

The 2D turbulence fluctuation spectrum (where turbulent fluctuations are assumed to be perpendicular to the uniform component of the background field, with wavenumbers also perpendicular to that field; see, e.g., Bieber et al. 1994; Matthaeus et al. 1995; Oughton et al.2006) is a key input for current scattering theories to derive diffusion coefficients perpendicular to some background magnetic field (see, e.g., Shalchi 2009, 2010; Ruffolo et al. 2012), which, in turn, are vital inputs for galactic cosmic-ray (CR) modulation models describing the transport of cosmic rays (CRs) from first principles (see, e.g., Engelbrecht & Burger 2013a, 2013b, 2015b; Chhiber et al. 2017; Qin & Shen 2017; Zhao et al. 2018). This is due to the fact that, beyond the very inner heliosphere, the Parker (1958) heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) is essentially azimuthal, thereby rendering perpend-icular diffusion one of the primary mechanisms whereby galactic CRs can reach Earth. The perpendicular diffusion coefficient may also effect CR drift (Engelbrecht et al.2017), which is reduced in the presence of turbulence (see, e.g., Minnie et al. 2007; Burger & Visser 2010; Tautz & Shalchi2012). As such, perpendicular mean free paths (MFPs) derived from the nonlinear guiding center (NLGC; Matthaeus et al.2003) or related scattering theories are extremely sensitive to the assumed form of the 2D turbulence power spectrum at low wavenumbers and to choices made as to lengthscales characteristic of this range(Shalchi et al.2010; Engelbrecht & Burger2015b), should a spectrum with a well-defined energy-containing range be employed. Matthaeus et al. (2007b), in a seminal paper on the spectral properties of 2D turbulence, argue fromfirst principles in favor of a three-range spectrum, with an inertial range at the largest wavenumbers, an energy-containing range as observed, and an “inner” range at the smallest wavenumbers. This last range is argued to have a positive spectral index, thereby ensuring a zero energy density at zero wavenumber, and a finite 2D ultrascale. Perpendicular

MFPs derived for such a spectral form are, however, highly sensitive to the behavior of the lengthscaleλout corresponding

to the wavenumber at which this range ends, and the energy-containing range commences (Engelbrecht & Burger 2015b). Spacecraft observations of turbulence quantities at the lowest frequencies corresponding to this range, however, are ham-pered by interference by coherent structures at larger timescales of a month or more (see, e.g., Goldstein & Roberts1999), so that, to date, no observations of this lengthscale exist. The 2D ultrascale, however, has been associated with the typical size of magnetic islands orflux ropes (Matthaeus et al.1999,2007b). Therefore, if the assumption is made that these magnetic island sizes correspond to the 2D ultrascale, observations of the characteristic lengthscale of these structures such as those reported by Cartwright & Moldwin(2010) and Khabarova et al. (2015) can in theory give an estimate as to this quantity. In turn, this estimate can be used to glean information as to the low-wavenumber behavior of the 2D turbulence power spectrum. This is the subject of the second section of this paper, where, using an observationally and theoretically motivated form proposed by Matthaeus et al. (2007b) for a three-range 2Dfluctuation modal spectrum and the expression for the 2D ultrascale derived therefrom, estimates for the 2D outerscaleλoutare calculated. These results are then compared

with prior estimates for this quantity proposed by Engelbrecht & Burger(2013a) and Adhikari et al. (2017a). The third section of this study considers the effects the different choices of 2D outerscale discussed above would have on galactic CR electron modulation, using a 3D stochastic CR modulation code based on that introduced by Engelbrecht & Burger(2015b). As it is by no means clear that magnetic island sizes correspond to the 2D ultrascale, the possibility that they may more closely correspond to the 2D outerscale itself is also considered in this section. Note that no attempt is made to reproduce CR electron observations, as the aim here is solely to demonstrate the sensitivity of galactic CR electron intensities computed using an ab initio modulation model on the 2D outerscale. The study The Astrophysical Journal, 872:124 (10pp), 2019 February 20 https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aafe7f

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closes with a section devoted to conclusions drawn from the abovementioned results.

2. Calculating the Outerscale of the 2D Turbulence Power Spectrum from Magnetic Island Sizes

Assuming axisymmetric 2D fluctuations, the 2D ultrascale can be calculated using (Matthaeus et al.2007b)

d kS k k B 1 2 2 2 2D2

ò

l d = -˜ ( ) ( )

with S(k) the 2D modal spectrum, and with Bd 2D2 denoting the

2D magnetic variance. Assuming some prespecified form for the modal spectrum would then allow one to explicitly calculate this quantity. In this study, a three-range form for the 2Dfluctuation spectrum is used, with an energy-containing range, an inertial range, and an inner range at the lowest wavenumbers, given by(Matthaeus et al. 2007b)

S k g k k k k k k , ; , ; , 2 o p

out out out

1

out out 1 out1 2D1

2D 2D 2D 1   l l l l l l l l l l = < < n ^ -^- - -- -⎧ ⎨ ⎪ ⎩ ⎪ ( ) ( ) ∣ ∣ ( ) ∣ ∣ ( ) ∣ ∣ ( ) where go C0 2D B2D 2 l d

= ,−ν is the inertial range spectral index, and λ2D and λout denote the 2D turnover and outer scales,

respectively. The quantity p denotes the spectral index of the inner range, here chosen to be equal to 2 to so that S(k) satisfies the solenoidal condition(Matthaeus et al.2007b). Taking into account the normalization condition where 2 dkS k k

0

ò

p ¥ ( ) =

B2D2

d , Matthaeus et al. (2007b) show that C p 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 . 3 0 2D out 1 p n p l l = + - - - + -⎜ ⎟ ⎡ ⎣ ⎢ ⎛ ⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞ ⎠ ⎟⎤ ⎦ ⎥ ( )

This spectral form yields afinite value for the ultrascale, as it does not assume finite values at zero wavenumber, for all p…1. The wavenumber-dependence of this spectrum in the energy-containing range, as noted by Matthaeus et al.(2007b), reflects spacecraft observations of this quantity (as reported by, e.g., Bieber et al. 1993; Horbury et al. 1996; Goldstein & Roberts1999; Matthaeus et al. 2007a). The square of the 2D ultrascale for such a spectral form will then be(Matthaeus et al. 2007b) C p 2 1 1 1 1 1 , 4 2 0 out 2D 2D2 l p l l l n = + - -+ ⎡ ⎣ ⎢ ⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞ ⎠ ⎟ ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟⎤ ⎦ ⎥ ˜ ( )

where the difficulty now arises that C0is a function ofλout, and

that λ2D is not known. The first difficulty is overcome by

assuming thatλoutis considerably larger than the 2D turnover

scale, so that from Equation(3), C0≈(ν−1)/2πν. In theory,

the 2D correlation scaleλc,2Dcan also be calculated from the

chosen spectral form(Batchelor1970; Matthaeus et al.2007b; Zank 2014), but for 2D turbulence this leads to a nonlinear equation in terms of both the outer and turnover scales. For the purposes of simplicity, then, it is assumed that the 2D correlation scale is equal to a constant factor multiplied by the 2D turnover scaleλ2D, to provide a range of values for this

quantity. Then Equation (4) can be solved relatively simply, yielding p p 1 1 1 1 . 5 out 2 2D 2D l n n l l n n l » + - + -+ ⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞ ⎠ ⎟ ˜ ( ) This expression can then be evaluated using as inputs for the 2D ultrascale the magnetic island sizes reported from various low heliolatitude spacecraft observations by Cartwright & Moldwin(2010) and Khabarova et al. (2015; shown in the left Figure 1.Left panel: outer scales as employed in previous studies, the lengthscale corresponding to one solar rotation assumed by Adhikari et al.(2017a; solid black line), and the scaling employed by Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a) in their modulation studies (dashed light green line), along with 2D island sizes as reported by

Cartwright & Moldwin(2010) and Khabarova et al. (2015; circles). Also shown is the scaling employed here for the 2D correlation scale (dotted line), normalized to the Weygand et al.(2011) observation of this quantity at Earth, and a fit to the island sizes employed as a possible scaling for λoutin Section3(solid blue line). Right panel: outer scalesλoutcalculated in Section2as a function of heliocentric radial distance when the 2D correlation scaleλc,2Dis assumed to be equal to the 2D turnover scaleλ2Dand whenλ2Dis assumed to be one-tenth ofλc,2D, along with afit to the latter results for λoutemployed in Section3(solid dark green line).

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panel of Figure 1 as a function of radial distance), assuming some radial scaling for the 2D correlation scale normalized at an appropriate observational value at Earth. For this, a value of 0.0073au at Earth, as reported by Weygand et al. (2011), is used, and an r0.5radial dependence for this quantity in the solar ecliptic plane is assumed, motivated by the radial dependence of the single-spacecraft observations reported by Smith et al. (2001) as well as results yielded by various turbulence transport models(TTMs; e.g., Breech et al. 2008; Oughton et al.2011; Adhikari et al.2015; Wiengarten et al.2016; Zank et al.2017). This scaling is also shown in the left panel of Figure 1, along with two estimates forλoutfrom previous studies, namely that

of Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a), where λout=12.5λc,2D

(dashed green line) found by those authors to yield computed galactic CR proton and antiproton intensities in reasonable agreement with spacecraft observations at Earth and elsewhere, albeit using diffusion coefficients derived for a different spectral form than that used in this study and a 2D correlation scale calculated using the Oughton et al.(2011) TTM; and also the lengthscale of ∼6.2au, an estimate for the outerscale proposed by Adhikari et al.(2017a), who argue that the largest turbulence injection scale should correspond to the solar rotation rate of∼27 days−1(indicated by the solid black line in thefigure). Note that both these scales remain above the island size observations as well as the assumed correlation scale, and that the effect of both outerscale estimates, as well as one based on the assumption that the magnetic island sizes themselves provide an estimate for λout, on the modulation of galactic

electrons will be considered in Section3. To provide a further possible range of values for the 2D outerscale, the case where λ2D=0.1λc,2D is considered alongside that where λc,2D is

assumed to be equal to the 2D turnover scale. Note that the case whereλ2D=10λc,2Dis not considered, as it leads to values for

λout that are smaller than the corresponding λ2D. In the

calculation of the corresponding 2D outer scales, a Kolmo-gorov inertial range spectral index(ν=5/3) is assumed (see, e.g., Smith et al. 2006a; Li et al.2011).

The results of the calculation of λoutare shown in the right

panel of Figure 1 as a function of radial distance for both assumed scalings of λc,2D, alongside the Khabarova et al.

(2015) and Cartwright & Moldwin (2010) observations and the extrapolated Weygand et al.(2011) 2D correlation scales. The 2D outer scales calculated for the case where λc,2D=λ2D

remain roughly one order of magnitude larger than the corresponding 2D correlation scales, and show a similarly

weak radial dependence. When it is assumed that

λ2D=0.1λc,2D, the corresponding outer scales are

consider-ably larger than those calculated assuming that λc,2D=λ2D,

being roughly two orders of magnitude greater than the correlation scale. Both sets of values for λoutremain between

the estimates of Adhikari et al. (2017a) and Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a), with the values calculated assuming that λc,2D=λ2D being close to the latter estimate. Note that

Figure1also shows simplefits to both the island size and the

outer scales calculated under the assumption that

λ2D=0.1λc,2D. These fits will be employed when the effects

of these various estimates for λout on galactic CR electron

intensities calculated using an ab initio CR modulation model are considered.

3. The Effects of the 2D Outerscale on Galactic CR Electron Modulation

Although it is not the intention of this study to minutely reproduce observations, the present section considers the implications of the various results for λout for galactic CR

electron intensities calculated using a 3D, stochastic ab initio modulation code introduced by Engelbrecht & Burger(2015b) to solve the Parker(1965) CR transport equation, so as to gain further insights into the transport processes that affect the modulation of these CRs. This is done using results yielded by a two-component TTM proposed by Oughton et al.(2011) as basic turbulence inputs for diffusion and drift coefficients calculated from first principles. Although more advanced TTMs have been proposed recently (see, e.g., Wiengarten et al.2016; Adhikari et al.2017a; Zank et al.2017,2018), this TTM is employed due to its relative ease of application to CR modulation studies(Engelbrecht & Burger 2013b), due to the fact that it yields results in agreement with spacecraft observations of various turbulence quantities Engelbrecht & Burger(2013a), and that it provides results in agreement with the more advanced model of Wiengarten et al.(2016) within the termination shock. Some care needs to be taken in the use of the Oughton et al.(2011) TTM outputs in CR modulation studies pertaining to the transport of electrons. This relates to the role that pickup ion-driven turbulence(see, e.g., Williams & Zank1994; Zank1999; Isenberg2005; Cannon et al.2017) plays in the scattering of these particles. Engelbrecht (2017) finds, however, that turbulence so generated will only scatter electrons at very low(below ∼10 MeV) energies due to the fact that thefluctuations generated by their formation only occur at larger wavenumbers on the slab turbulence spectrum (e.g., Williams & Zank 1994), and also find that, when such a contribution is taken into account in the calculation of electron MFPs, the resulting transport coefficients are unrealistically small. Furthermore, from spacecraft observations, Cannon et al. (2017) report that only a relatively limited amount of the intervals they studied show evidence of a spectral enhancement due to the presence of pickup ion-generated waves, arguing that such signatures are only discernable when the local background turbulence is weak. Therefore, the pickup ion contribution is here neglected when fluctuation energies, and thus magnetic variances, are calculated using the Oughton et al.(2011) model. The slab correlation scale, however, is still assumed to be affected by the behavior of the entire slab turbulence spectrum, (see, e.g., Zank2014), so that here the pickup ion contribution in the Oughton et al. (2011) TTM is still taken into account. This assumption was also made by Moloto et al. (2018) who consider the modulation of high energy galactic CR protons, and find good agreement of computed intensities with space-craft observations at Earth.

Although a fuller description of the solutions of this TTM can be found in Engelbrecht & Burger(2013a) and Engelbrecht & Burger (2015b), a brief description is here given for the purpose of clarity. The model is solved for steady-state generic solar minimum conditions, assuming a large-scale Parker (1958) HMF, and a latitude-dependent solar wind speed profile set so as to agree with Ulysses observations reported by

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McComas et al. (2000). Boundary values are chosen so as to yield results in reasonable agreement with existing spacecraft observations in various regions of the heliosphere, as discussed by Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a). Figure 2 shows the radial dependences of the magnetic variances and correlation scales yielded by the TTM in the ecliptic plane, along with selected spacecraft observations. The magnetic variances decrease monotonically with increasing radial distance due to the omission of pickup ion effects, remaining within the lower bounds of the Zank et al.(1996) Voyager observations shown. As the purpose of this section of the study is to consider electron modulation during solar minimum conditions, this would be consistent with the lower values of the magnetic variance reported by Burger et al.(2014) and Zhao et al. (2018) during this part of the solar cycle. The correlation scales yielded by this model are shown as a function of radial distance in the right panel of Figure 2. The 2D correlation scale increases monotonically with radial distance, following the trend of the Smith et al. (2001) observations, while the slab correlation scale decreases beyond∼5au due to the effects of pickup ions, increasing again past ∼40au. Note that this behavior is a subject of considerable debate (see, e.g., Zank et al.2017), with other TTMs (e.g., that employed by Adhikari et al.2017a,2017b) yielding results for this quantity that do not display this behavior. These differences are expected to affect computed CR intensities, and will be the subject of future study. The turbulence quantities acquired from the Oughton et al.(2011) TTM then serve as inputs to the coefficients of the CR diffusion tensor entering into the Parker transport equation. Due to the assumptions made as to the nature of the turbulence modeled, use of the Oughton et al.(2011) TTM imposes certain constraints as to the region of applicability of the CR modulation model discussed above. Due to the nature of the turbulence observed in the heliosheath(see, e.g., Burlaga et al. 2015, 2018) and the behavior of the large-scale background

plasma quantities in this region (see, e.g., Wiengarten et al. 2016), the above model cannot be used to self-consistently study the modulation of galactic CRs beyond the termination shock. As this modulation has been observed to be consider-able(e.g., Stone et al.2013), use of a local interstellar electron intensity spectrum as a boundary condition would not be realistic. This study follows the approach of Engelbrecht & Burger (2015b), who attempt to minimize such difficulties by employing a boundary spectrum constructed to fit observations of already-modulated galactic CRs at or near the termination shock. As such, the galactic electron input spectrum used in this study has been constructed to agree at the lowest energies with interpolated Voyager observations reported by Webber et al.(2017) at ∼95au, and at the highest energies with Pamela observations beyond 10GeV reported by Adriani et al. (2011), on the basis that galactic electrons at such high energies would not experience much modulation in the heliosphere, and is given by

j P P P 95 au 0.225 1.0 0.95 1.75 10 , 6 B 2.75 2.52 6 3.0 = + + ´ -- - -( ) ( )

where P is the particle rigidity in GV, and the boundary spectrum in units of particles m2s−1sr−1MeV−1. As a first approach, the effects of charge-sign modulation on the boundary spectrum are neglected. This is a simplifying assumption, as evinced by the galactic proton observations reported by Webber et al.(2008), and as such will be addressed in a future study. The boundary of the TTM as well as the modulation model, then, is set at 95au, a distance only moderately greater than the location of the termination shock observed by Voyager1 (see, e.g., Stone et al.2005).

The electron MFP parallel to the background HMF used in this study is the quasilinear theory result employed by Engelbrecht & Burger (2010), who use an expression constructed from the results derived by Teufel & Schlickeiser Figure 2.Selected turbulence quantities yielded by the Oughton et al.(2011) TTM, shown as a function of heliocentric radial distance in the ecliptic plane. Left panel:

magnetic variances, with Voyager observations reported by Zank et al.(1996; black circles) and Smith et al. (2006b; open circles). Right panel: correlation scales, with observations at 1au reported by Weygand et al. (2011), as well as Voyager observations of the same reported by Smith et al. (2001), and calculated using the e-folding

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(2003), given by s s R k B B d d b Q R s s R 3 1 1 4 1 2 1 2 2 2 4 1 , 7 o d d s s s 2 min slab 2 2 l p d p p p = -+ G + -+ - - ⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞ ⎠ ⎟ ⎡ ⎣ ⎢ ⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞⎟ ⎤ ⎦⎥ ( ) · ( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( )

assuming the random sweeping model of dynamical turbulence (Bieber et al. 1994). Note that this expression is derived for a slab turbulence power spectrum with a wavenumber-indepen-dent energy-containing range, breaking at kmin to an inertial

range with spectral index −s, which in turn breaks at kdto a

dissipation range with spectral index−d. To model kd, the

best-fit proton gyrofrequency model from Leamon et al. (2000) is employed, following the approach of Engelbrecht & Burger (2010) and Engelbrecht & Burger (2013b). The effects of using the more self-consistent approach to modeling this quantity proposed by Engelbrecht & Strauss (2018) will be the subject of future study. Furthermore, note that R=RLkmin, the RLthe

maximal particle Larmor radius, and that Bo and Bslab 2

d ,

respectively, denote the HMF magnitude and slab variance. Note that b=v/2αdVA, where v and VAare the particle and

Alfvén speeds, andαda parameter adjusting dynamical effects

(see, e.g., Bieber et al. 1994), set here to a value of 1. Axisymmetric perpendicular diffusion is assumed in this study, with a perpendicular MFP derived by Engelbrecht & Burger (2015a) from the Extended NLGC theory of Shalchi (2006), assuming a three-stage 2D turbulence power spectrum with wavenumber dependences identical to Equation(2). This MFP is given by a B C B h h h 2 , 8 o 2 2 0 2D 2D2 ,1 ,2 ,3 l l d l = + + ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ [ ] ( ) where h p F p p x h x y h F y 1 1, 1 2 , 3 2 ; , 2 log 1 1 , 3 1 1, 1 2 , 3 2 ; , ,1 2 2 1 2 ,2 2D 2 2 ,3 2 2 1 2 l l l l l l l n n n = + + + -= + + = + + + -^ ^ -^ ^ ^   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎛ ⎝ ⎞ ⎠ ⎡ ⎣ ⎢ ⎤⎥ ⎛ ⎝ ⎞ ⎠ ( ) ( ) with x y 3 , 3 , out 2D l l l l l l = = ^ ^  

where F2 1denotes a hypergeometric function. Note that we use

a2=1/3 following Matthaeus et al. (2003), and the unap-proximated expression for C0 (Equation (3)). For the

turbulence-reduced drift coefficient, we employ the result of

Engelbrecht et al.(2017): R B B 1 , 9 A L T ws 2 2 2 0 2 1 k =k + l d^ -⎡ ⎣ ⎢ ⎤ ⎦ ⎥ ( )

where κws=vRL/3 is the so-called weak scattering drift

coefficient (see, e.g., Forman et al. 1974), v is the particle speed, and dBT2 denotes the total (slab and 2D) transverse variance. This drift coefficient yields results in good agreement with numerical test particle simulations for various turbulence scenarios done by Minnie et al. (2007) and Tautz & Shalchi(2012).

Figure 3 shows the MFPs and drift scale as a function of rigidity at 1au and 95au in the solar ecliptic plane, along with the Palmer(1982) consensus range where applicable, using the different scalings for λout discussed in Section 2. Left panels

show perpendicular mean free paths, and right panels show the drift scales. Note that the scale of the top right panel is different from that of the top left panel. The parallel mean free paths are shown on all panels to guide the eye, and as expected remain unaffected by the choice ofλout, as this quantity pertains to the

2D turbulentfluctuation spectrum. At Earth, the parallel MFP is relatively large at the lowest rigidities shown, decreasing steadily toward∼0.2GV, and increases thereafter, remaining above the Palmer consensus range due to the fact that solar minimum conditions are assumed (see, e.g., Chen & Bie-ber 1993; Zhao et al. 2018). At 95au (bottom panels), λP displays a relativelyflat rigidity dependence below ∼0.1GV, thereafter displaying a P2 dependence. Turning to the perpendicular MFPs (left panels), at Earth and beyond the largest values forλoutcorrespond to the largest values for λ⊥.

At 1au, varying this quantity leads to large differences in the resulting perpendicular MFPS, with the solution corresponding to the Adhikari et al.(2017a) estimate for this quantity falling within the Palmer consensus range forλPat the upper part of the range, and with the perpendicular MFP corresponding to the 2D outerscalefitted to the actual observed magnetic island sizes having values approximately a factor of 2 smaller than the Palmer consensus values forλ. In terms of the scaling ofλ with λout, this behavior is broadly in agreement with what

Engelbrecht & Burger (2015b) report for their galactic proton perpendicular MFPs. As a function of rigidity, the perpend-icular MFPs calculated assuming smaller values forλoutremain

relatively constant in a manner reminiscent of the findings of Shalchi et al. (2010). These authors find this same behavior when the wavenumber-dependence of the energy-containing range of the 2D spectrum used to derive their perpendicular MFP expression becomes steeper. Perpendicular MFPs calcu-lated here for larger values ofλoutappear to follow the rigidity

dependence of the parallel mean free path in a manner reminiscent of the l1 3 dependence displayed by analytical approximations forλderived by Shalchi et al.(2004), albeit for a 2D turbulence spectrum with a wavenumber-independent energy-containing range with no low-wavenumber cutoff(and therefore implicitly assuming in infinitely large λout). At 95au,

all perpendicular MFPs display aflat rigidity dependence and remain well belowλP, due to the very low levels of turbulence at this radial distance(see Figure2). The λcorresponding to the Adhikari et al. (2017a) estimate for λout is here slightly

lower than that corresponding to the value forλout calculated

from the island sizes under the assumption thatλ2D=0.1λc,2D,

as the latter estimate forλout, increasing as it does with radial

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distance, is larger than the(constant) former estimate at 95au. Drift lengthscales corresponding to the various assumptions for λoutat Earth(top right panel of Figure3) remain, for most of

the rigidity range shown, considerably smaller than the various perpendicular MFPs, only in some cases displaying the P1 scaling expected of the weak scattering drift scale. This is a consequence of the larger levels of turbulence in the very inner heliosphere. Here the ordering of drift scales with outerscale size is the opposite of that seen forλ, with the largest estimate for λout now leading to the smallest drift scale. This is due to

theλdependence of Equation(9). Due to the extremely low levels of turbulence at 95au, all of the drift scales in the bottom right panel of Figure3assume the weak scattering value except at the very lowest rigidities shown, where again the largest valueλoutleads to the smallest drift scale.

Figure 4 shows MFPs and drift scales as a function of heliocentric radial distance in the ecliptic plane, in the same format as Figure 3, at 1MeV (top panels) and 1GeV (bottom panels). Overall, the parallel MFPs at both energies increase with radial distance, reflecting the radially decreasing values for Bd . The finer features of this radial increase, however,s2 differ as function of energy, as Equation(7) is at these different energies dominated by different terms, with different depen-dences onλs. As a function ofλout, all perpendicular MFPs and

drift scales follow the ordering seen in Figure3, for the reasons discussed above. At 1MeV and in the inner heliosphere, the perpendicular MFPs generally remain larger than the

corresponding drift scales. For the Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a) scaling for λoutand for the island size scaling forλout,

the perpendicular MFPs and drift scales are of comparable magnitudes, whereas λremains larger than λA for the other

choices for the outerscale. At 1GeV, the perpendicular MFPs behave in the same manner as at 1MeV. The drift scales, however, assume weak scattering values beyond ∼10au, assuming for all choices for λout values larger than the

correspondingλ.

Galactic CR differential intensities at Earth, calculated using the model discussed above for the various scalings for λout

discussed in Section 2, are shown as a function of kinetic energy in Figure5, along with the assumed boundary spectrum at 95au (Equation (6), dark green line). Also shown are various observations of the same at 1 and 95au, as reported by L’Heureux & Meyer (1976), Evenson et al. (1983), Moses (1987), Adriani et al. (2011), and Webber et al. (2017). Note that no attempt has been made to fit data, and that these observations serve only to guide the eye as to the range within which computed solutions should be in. A close comparison with spacecraft observations would require careful modeling of turbulence and large-scale heliospheric quantities such as the HMF magnitude at specific times corresponding to those during which the particular differential intensity data set with which a comparison is being made was taken, and remains beyond the scope of this study. Such comparisons are indeed possible, and have been done with some success by Moloto Figure 3.Perpendicular MFPS(left panels) and drift lengthscales (right panels) used in this study, shown as a function of rigidity at 1au (top panels) and 95au (bottom panels), for various assumptions as to λoutas discussed in Section2. The corresponding parallel MFPs are also shown(solid red lines) in each panel, to guide the eye. Palmer(1982) consensus values are indicated by solid green lines, where applicable. Legend acronyms and line types correspond to those used in Figure1.

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et al. (2018) for galactic proton intensities at Earth during the last three solar minima. Overall, however, the intensities calculated with the model presented in this study remain close to the Adriani et al. (2011) observations at high energies, follow the trend of observations at intermediate energies(albeit at different levels of modulation), and are only significantly below observations at the lowest energies. This last point, however, is simply due to the fact that observations below ∼100MeV are dominated by a Jovian electron component (see, e.g., Ferreira et al.2001a; Vogt et al.2018), which is not taken into account in this study. The top panel shows differential intensities calculated for periods of positive (qA<0, blue lines) and negative (qA>0, red lines) magnetic polarity assuming thatλoutcorresponds to the observed island

sizes(dashed lines) and the Adhikari et al. (2017a; dotted lines) and Engelbrecht & Burger(2013a; solid lines) assumptions for λout. At the highest energies, all solutions for qA<0 remain

larger than the corresponding solutions for qA>0, in line with standard CR drift theory(see, e.g., Reinecke & Potgieter1994), and reflecting the fact that drift lengthscales at these high energies are larger than the perpendicular MFPs(see Figure4). At the highest energies shown, the choice of λout does not

greatly affect the computed intensity spectra. At intermediate energies, the assumption of larger values for λout leads to a

smaller separation between solutions calculated assuming positive and negative magnetic polarities, and vice versa. This

is a consequence of the fact that larger values of the 2D outerscale lead to larger perpendicular MFPs, and correspond-ingly smaller drift scales. Solutions computed using outer scales calculated from observed island sizes under the assumption thatλ2D=0.1λc,2Dare similar to those calculated

assuming the Adhikari et al.(2017a) λout, but display even less

of a charge-sign dependence, due to the fact that such perpendicular MFPs calculated under the former assumption forλoutare the largest of those considered in this study in the

outer regions of the modulation volume considered here (Figure 4). At the smallest energies shown, all solutions converge to a no drift scenario as expected (see, e.g., Potgieter1996), as shown by the solid black line in Figure5, which shows intensities calculated using the Engelbrecht & Burger (2013a) λout with drift effects switched off. At the

lowest energies shown here, the choice ofλouthas a significant

effect on the levels of the computed differential intensities, which vary more than an order of magnitude.

4. Discussion and Conclusions

Observations of magnetic island sizes in the solar wind, such as those reported by Khabarova et al.(2015) and Cartwright & Moldwin (2010), can be used to gain some information as to the behavior of the 2D turbulence fluctuation spectrum at the lowest wavenumbers, which may not otherwise be discernible Figure 4.Perpendicular MFPS(left panels) and drift lengthscales (right panels) used in this study, shown as a function of heliocentric radial distance in the solar ecliptic plane at 1MeV (top panels) and 1GeV (bottom panels), for various assumptions as to λoutas discussed in Section2. The corresponding parallel MFPs are also shown(solid red lines) on each panel, to guide the eye. Note that the top right panel is not to the same scale as the top left panel. Legend acronyms and line types correspond to those used in Figure1.

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from direct observations of the fluctuation power spectrum. Estimates so acquired of the 2D outerscale, assuming an observationally and theoretically motivated form for the 2D

modal spectrum, remain larger than the assumed 2D correlation scale, and are in rough agreement with some estimates of this quantity made in previous studies.

Figure 5.Galactic CR electron differential intensities computed for the various outerscale models discussed in the text, shown as a function of kinetic energy at 1au for periods of positive(red lines) and negative (blue lines) magnetic polarity, along with various spacecraft observations, which are the same as those reported by L’Heureux & Meyer (1976), Evenson et al. (1983), Moses (1987), and Adriani et al. (2011). The model boundary spectrum (Equation (6), green line) is shown in both

panels to guide the eye, along with interpolated 95au observations reported by Webber et al. (2017). The top panel shows results calculated with the Engelbrecht &

Burger(2013a) estimate for λout(solid lines, EB2013), the Adhikari et al. (2017a) estimate (dotted lines, Aetal2017), and an estimate for this quantity based on a fit to the magnetic island sizes reported by Cartwright & Moldwin(2010) and Khabarova et al. (2015). The bottom panel again shows the EB2013 results, along with those

calculated with outer scales calculated from magnetic island sizes under the assumption thatλ2D=0.1λc,2D(dashed–dotted lines). Note that black lines indicate solutions calculated for particular assumptions as toλoutwhen drift effects are switched off.

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The various estimates forλoutfrom previous studies, as well

as those calculated here, have a considerable effect on the perpendicular MFPs and drift scales presented here, in agreement with the findings of Engelbrecht & Burger (2015b) for galactic proton perpendicular MFPs. This appears to be in contrast with thefindings of Chhiber et al. (2017), who report only a weak dependence of the MFPs they derive on the low-wavenumber behavior of the 2D turbulence power spectrum. It should be noted, however, that these authors derive their MFPs assuming a two-range form for this spectrum, different from that employed here, in that it does not display a k−1-dependent energy-containing range. The perpendicular MFP expressions derived by Shalchi et al.(2010) for a 2D spectral form similar to that employed here, however, also depend strongly on assumptions as to the low-wavenum-ber behavior of this spectrum. To summarize the effects of the choice ofλouton the perpendicular MFPs and drift scales used

in this study, larger estimates of λout lead to larger

perpend-icular mean free paths with rigidity dependences reminiscent of that displayed by the parallel MFP, while smaller estimates of λout lead to smaller, almost rigidity dependent perpendicular

MFPs close to Palmer (1982) consensus values for this quantity. The converse is true for the drift scale, due to the fact that larger perpendicular MFPs lead to a greater reduction of drift effects.

Like the galactic proton intensities considered by Engel-brecht & Burger (2015b), the computed galactic CR electron intensities naturally display a similar sensitivity to assumptions made as to the behavior ofλout, albeit in an energy-dependent

fashion. At intermediate energies, where drift effects are expected to play a significant role, larger values for λoutlead to

larger intensities overall, and to smaller differences in intensities computed for periods of positive and negative magnetic polarity, due to the greater reduction of the drift coefficient in the outer regions of the modulation volume modeled here. At the lowest energies considered in this study, the large differences in the perpendicular MFPs resulting from the various choices ofλoutplay the biggest role in the transport

of the electrons, resulting in large differences in computed intensities. These intensities are independent of magnetic polarity, as drift effects at these low energies are naturally reduced below any level of significance by Equation (9). This sensitivity to the behavior of turbulence quantities at small wavenumbers is remarkable in that it matches the sensitivity to small-scale dissipation range turbulence quantities shown by galactic electron intensity spectra at Earth computed by Engelbrecht & Burger(2013b).

Overall, even though no attempt at data-fitting has been made in this study, the use of diffusion and drift coefficients modeled from first principles and using turbulence quantities derived from a TTM in conjunction with an observationally motivated galactic electron boundary spectrum leads to computed intensities not too far off spacecraft observations at Earth at high and intermediate energies. Model results do not agree with observations at the lowest energies, but this is simply due to the fact that the contribution to electron intensities at Earth from the Jovian magnetosphere is not taken into account here. From previous modulation studies, the Jovian electron contribution at these low energies far outweighs that of galactic electrons(see, e.g., Ferreira et al.2001a,2001b; Strauss et al. 2011). The sensitivity of computed low-energy CR electron intensities to the choice ofλoutsuggests that such a

physics-first approach, should a Jovian source be considered, could provide more insight as to possible values for this quantity, as well as providing extra insight into the behavior of other turbulence and large-scale quantities affecting the transport of these particles such as the dissipation range onset wavenumber or the HMF geometry, which may not be readily discernible using currently existing spacecraft observations (see, e.g., Engelbrecht & Burger 2010; Sternal et al. 2011; Strauss et al.2011; Engelbrecht & Burger2013b; Vogt et al. 2018) by careful comparisons of model outputs with observa-tions, while also providing a more nuanced understanding of the transport of CRs in the heliosphere than is possible using ad hoc formulations for diffusion coefficients. This will be the subject of future studies.

N.E.E. would like to thank O. Khabarova for valuable discussions on the observations that she generously provided for use in this study, and would also like to thank R.A. Burger for valuable discussions about this study.

This work is partly supported by the International Space Science Institute(ISSI) in the framework of International Team 405 entitled “Current Sheets, Turbulence, Structures and Particle Acceleration in the Heliosphere”.

This work is based on the research supported in part by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (grant No. 111731). Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to the NRF.

ORCID iDs

N. E. Engelbrecht https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3659-7956 References

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