• No results found

%HODQJULMN *HELHG

6WDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJYDQGH9ODDPVHSRSXODWLH

9HUPHHUVFK HW DO   'RRU KHW YHUVFKLO LQ JHEUXLNWH KRNNHQVFKDDO WXVVHQ EHLGH DWODVVHQ [NPYHUVXVUHFHQW[NP ZDVKHWYRRUHQNHOHVRRUWHQPHWHHQEHSHUNWH YHUVSUHLGLQJ VWUDQGSOHYLHUSRUVHOHLQKRHQ QLHWPRJHOLMNRPYRRURIDFKWHUXLWJDQJYDQ KHWDUHDDORSHHQFRUUHFWHPDQLHUWHLQWHUSUHWHUHQ'HVWDDWYDQKHWDUHDDOLVGXVYRRU GLH VRRUWHQ ¶RQEHNHQGµ 'LW ZHUG VWHHGV GXLGHOLMN LQ GH VRRUWWHNVWHQ YHUPHOG 2RN ELM QLHXZH VRRUWHQ ZDV HU XLWHUDDUG JHHQ YHUJHOLMNLQJ PHW HHQ YURHJHU DUHDDO PRJHOLMN PDDUFRQIRUPGHPHWKRGHYDOWHHQWRHQDPHYDQDUHDDORQGHUGHFDWHJRULHµJXQVWLJ¶   1LHWEURHGYRJHOV +HWLVPRHLOLMNRPKHWYHUVSUHLGLQJVDUHDDOYDQQLHWEURHGHQGHZDWHUYRJHOVLQ9ODDQGHUHQ NZDQWLWDWLHIWHEHSDOHQ'HPHHVWHVRRUWHQNRPHQYHUVSUHLGRYHUKHHO9ODDQGHUHQYRRU PDDUPHWVWHUNYDULsUHQGHDDQWDOOHQWXVVHQUHJLR¶VHQJHELHGHQ%LMHONHVRRUWZRUGWHHQ NRUWH EHVFKULMYLQJ JHJHYHQ YDQ KHW KXLGLJ YHUVSUHLGLQJVDUHDDO HQ HYHQWXHOH RSYDOOHQGH WHQGHQVHQWLMGHQVGHODDWVWHGHFHQQLD



6WDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJYDQGH9ODDPVHSRSXODWLH



 %URHGYRJHOV

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



6WDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJYDQGHKDELWDW

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± KRHZHO GH EURHGYRJHOVRRUWHQ ZpO ZDW VWHUNHU JHERQGHQ ]LMQ DDQ KXQ SULPDLUH KDELWDWV RP ]LFK YRRUW WH SODQWHQ 'HUJHOLMNH DVSHFWHQ ZRUGHQ ]RYHHO PRJHOLMN LQ GH VRRUWWHNVWHQWRHJHOLFKW+HWPDDNWZHOGDWKHWJHYHQYDQppQJOREDOHEHRRUGHOLQJYRRU GHKDELWDWVRPVQLHWHHQYRXGLJLV  7RHNRPVWSHUVSHFWLHYHQ   %URHGYRJHOV



'H WRHNRPVWSHUVSHFWLHYHQ YRRU GH EURHGYRJHOV ZHUGHQ LQJHVFKDW RS EDVLV YDQ GH KXLGLJH VWDDW YDQ LQVWDQGKRXGLQJ YDQ DUHDDO SRSXODWLH HQ KDELWDW HQ GH YHUZDFKWH HYROXWLHV LQ 9ODDQGHUHQ (U ZHUG RRN UHNHQLQJ JHKRXGHQ PHW GH WUHQG YDQ GH VRRUW LQ :DOORQLsRQ]HEXXUODQGHQHQHOGHUVLQ(XURSD



 1LHWEURHGYRJHOV

%LM KHWLQVFKDWWHQ YDQ GH WRHNRPVWSHUVSHFWLHYHQ YRRU GH QLHWEURHGYRJHOV ZHUG WHYHQV GH WUHQG YDQ GH WRWDOH ELRJHRJUDILVFKH SRSXODWLH LQ UHNHQLQJ JHEUDFKW %LM HHQ DDQKRXGHQGHHQVLJQLILFDQWHDIQDPHYDQGHWRWDOHSRSXODWLHLVGHNDQVJURRWGDWRRNGH DDQWDOOHQ LQ 9ODDQGHUHQ HHQ DIQDPH ]XOOHQ RQGHUJDDQ 'H IDFWRUHQ GLH WHQ JURQGVODJ OLJJHQ DDQ GH WRWDOH SRSXODWLHWUHQG VSHOHQ ]LFK VRPV LQ EHODQJULMNH PDWH DI EXLWHQ KHW 9ODDPVHJURQGJHELHG EYLQQRRUGHOLMNHWRHQGUDJHELHGHQ 



'H WRHNRPVWLJH HYROXWLH YDQ YRJHOSRSXODWLHV ]RZHO EURHGYRJHOV DOV QLHWEURHGYRJHOV  ]DO PRJHOLMN RRN LQ EHODQJULMNH PDWH EHSDDOG ZRUGHQ GRRU GH YHUZDFKWH NOLPDDWVYHUDQGHULQJ1XDOZRUGHQLQEHSDDOGHODQGHQYHUVFKXLYLQJHQLQKHWZLQWHUDUHDDO YDQ EHSDDOGH VRRUWHQ WRHJHVFKUHYHQ DDQ NOLPDDWVYHUDQGHULQJ 7RFK LV KHW ELM]RQGHU PRHLOLMNRPLQWHVFKDWWHQLQZHONHPDWH HQ RSZHONHWHUPLMQGHUJHOLMNHYHUDQGHULQJHQ ]LFK ]XOOHQ YRRUGRHQ LQ 9ODDQGHUHQ 'LW DVSHFW LV GDQ RRN JHHQ GRRUVODJJHYHQGH URO WRHEHGHHOGELMKHWYDVWVWHOOHQYDQGHWRHNRPVWLJHVWDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJ

 

 %HRRJGHGRHOHQ

'H JHZHVWHOLMNH LQVWDQGKRXGLQJVGRHOVWHOOLQJHQ YDQ GH YRJHOVRRUWHQ YORHLHQ JURWHQGHHOV YRRUWXLWGHEHRRUGHOLQJYDQGHVWDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJ ]LH 



$UHDDO

• LQGLHQJXQVWLJEHKRXGKXLGLJDUHDDO

• LQGLHQ PDWLJ RQJXQVWLJ ]HHU RQJXQVWLJ RI ELM PDDWVFKDSSHOLMN RQJHZHQVWH HYROXWLHV EYWRHQDPHYDQIRHUDJHUHQGHJDQ]HQRSDNNHUVLSYJUDVODQGHQ XLWEUHLGLQJWRW ]HHUVWHUNHXLWEUHLGLQJDFWXHHODUHDDO GRRULQULFKWLQJYDQQLHXZHJHVFKLNWHJHELHGHQ RIKHUVWHOYDQJHGHJUDGHHUGHHQRIRRUVSURQNHOLMNHKDELWDWV   3RSXODWLHJURRWWH   EURHGYRJHOV

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



'H EHRRJGH SRSXODWLHGRHOHQ YRRU GH EURHGYRJHOVRRUWHQ ZHUGHQ RSJHVWHOG DDQ GH KDQG YDQ HHQ YDVWH PHWKRGH +LHUYDQ ZHUG HQNHO DIJHZHNHQ YRRU VRRUWHQ ZDDUYDQ LQ KHW NDGHUYDQKHW6LJPDSODQUHHGVEHRRJGHSRSXODWLHGRHOHQYRRUGH:DDVODQGKDYHQHQKHW 6FKHOGHHVWXDULXP GH ,+'=  GRRU GH 9ODDPVH 5HJHULQJ ZHUGHQ JRHGJHNHXUG EHVOLVVLQJGG]LHRRN:DWHUZHJHQHQ=HHNDQDDO19 'H]HVRRUWHQ ZRUGHQLQRQGHUVWDDQGHRSGHOLQJDDQJHGXLGPHWHHQEROOHWMH ƒ HQGLWZRUGWRRNVWHHGV GXLGHOLMNLQKXQVRRUWWHNVWYHUPHOG'HSXUSHUUHLJHUHHQRQUHJHOPDWLJEURHGHQGHVRRUW ZHUG GRRU GH JRHGJHNHXUGH VLJPDGRHOHQ RRN PHH RSJHQRPHQ LQ GH *,+' 'LW SODQ YRRU]LHWRRNGDWYRRUVRRUWHQDOVYLVDUHQG]ZDUWHZRXZHQ]HHDUHQGDDQGDFKWVRRUWHQ

 PHWJURWHDUHDDOEHKRHIWHQHQHHQNOHLQHSRWHQWLsOHSRSXODWLHGHSRWHQWLsOHDDQZH]LJKHLG YRRUppQRIPHHUGHUHEURHGSDUHQPRHWYRRU]LHQZRUGHQ9RRUGH]HVRRUWHQZHUGHQJHHQ JHZHVWHOLMNHLQVWDQGKRXGLQJVGRHOVWHOOLQJHQYRRU]LHQ  ¾ 6RRUWHQPHWHHQJXQVWLJHVWDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJYDQGHSRSXODWLH

D 'H KXLGLJH SRSXODWLH LV WHQ RS]LFKWH YDQ GH KLVWRULVFKH UHIHUHQWLHSRSXODWLH  VWHUNWRHJHQRPHQRIKHHIWPLQVWHQVKHW]HOIGHSHLOEHUHLNWEHKRXGHQ  D VRRUWHQ ZDDUYDQ JHHQ YROOHGLJH ODQJH WLMGVUHHNVHQ YRRUKDQGHQ ]LMQ

EHKRXG YDQ JHPLGGHOGH YDQ GH SRSXODWLHVFKDWWLQJ YRRU GH 9ODDPVH EURHGYRJHODWODV  EODXZERUVW ]ZDUWH VSHFKW QDFKW]ZDOXZ ZHVSHQGLHILMVYRJHO 

 DVRRUWHQZDDUYDQYROOHGLJHODQJHWLMGVUHHNVHQYRRUKDQGHQ]LMQHQZDDUYDQ GH 9ODDPVH SRSXODWLHV QLHW ELQQHQ HHQ PHWDSRSXODWLHYHUEDQG PRHWHQ EHVFKRXZG ZRUGHQ EHKRXG YDQ JHPLGGHOGH SRSXODWLH  RYHU HHQ SHULRGH PHW HHQ VWDELHOH WUHQG EUXLQH NLHNHQGLHI NOXXWƒ GZHUJVWHUQ YLVGLHI  H[FOXVLHI SLHNHQ 

DVRRUWHQZDDUYDQYROOHGLJHODQJHWLMGVUHHNVHQYRRUKDQGHQ]LMQHQZDDUYDQ GH 9ODDPVH SRSXODWLHV ZHO ELQQHQ HHQ PHWDSRSXODWLHYHUEDQG PRHWHQ EHVFKRXZG ZRUGHQ EHKRXG YDQ HHQ PLQLPDDO JHVFKLNWH KDELWDWRSSHUYODNWH YRRU GH PD[LPDDO RRLW JHKDDOGH SRSXODWLH WRW  ]ZDUWNRSPHHXZ JURWH VWHUQ 

E 'H VRRUW KHHIW ]LFK UHFHQW  MDDU  JHYHVWLJG HQRI QDP VWHUN WRH PLQLPDDO EHKRXG YDQ GH KXLGLJH SRSXODWLH PLGGHOVWH ERQWH VSHFKW NOHLQH ]LOYHUUHLJHU VOHFKWYDON 

F 'H VRRUW YHUWRRQW QX HHQ VWDELHOHU NDUDNWHU GDQ LQ  HQ QHHPW WRH PLQLPDDOEHKRXGYDQGHKXLGLJHJHPLGGHOGHSRSXODWLH VWHOWNOXXW 



¾ 6RRUWHQPHWHHQ]HHURQJXQVWLJHVWDDWYDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJYDQGHSRSXODWLH D 'H KLVWRULVFKH UHIHUHQWLHSRSXODWLH  ZRUGW EHVFKRXZG DOV YROGRHQGH

GXXU]DDP HQ GH KXLGLJH SRSXODWLH LV WHQ RS]LFKWH KLHUYDQ VWHUN DIJHQRPHQ PLQLPDDO EHKRXG YDQ SRSXODWLH URQG  SRUVHOHLQKRHQƒ VWUDQGSOHYLHU JUDXZHNODXZLHU 

E'HKLVWRULVFKHUHIHUHQWLHSRSXODWLHZRUGWQLHWEHVFKRXZGDOVGXXU]DDP HQGHKXLGLJHSRSXODWLHLVWHQRS]LFKWHKLHUYDQVWHUNDIJHQRPHQHQKHHIWHHQWH ODDJ SHLO EHUHLNW PLQLPDDO EHKRXG YDQ HHQ GXXU]DPH SRSXODWLH GLH RYHUHHQNRPW PHW GH DDQZH]LJH SRSXODWLH YRRUGDW HHQ GXLGHOLMNH GDOLQJ RSWUDG PHHVWDO MDUHQ   URHUGRPSƒ ZRXGDDSMH NZDUWHONRQLQJƒ JUDXZH NLHNHQGLHI 

F'HSRSXODWLHEHVWDDWJURWHQGHHOVXLWYHUZLOGHUGHYRJHOVKHWDDQGHHOZLOGHYRJHOV LV]HHUODDJGRHO NHUQSRSXODWLHVYDQZLOGHYRJHOV RRLHYDDUNZDNƒ  G 'H VRRUW KHHIW ]LFK UHFHQW JHYHVWLJG HQ QHHPW MDDUOLMNV WRH PDDU KHHIW HHQ ]HHU

RQJXQVWLJH VWDDW JHNUHJHQ GRRUGDW GH NHUQSRSXODWLH PRPHQWHHO EHGUHLJG LV PLQLPDDOEHKRXGYDQGHKXLGLJHSRSXODWLH OHSHODDUƒ 

H'HVRRUWLVXLWJHVWRUYHQQDHUZRUGHQJHHQSRSXODWLHGRHOVWHOOLQJHQJHJHYHQ ZHO GRHOVWHOOLQJHQ YRRU GH YHUEHWHULQJ YDQ GH NZDOLWHLW YDQ KHW OHHIJHELHG GXLQSLHSHU]ZDUWHVWHUQRUWRODDQNRUKRHQ 



 1LHWEURHGYRJHOV

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

 JHYRHUGH1DWXUDEHOHLG+HWIHLWGDWGH]HDDQWDOOHQLQVWDELHOHWRHVWDQGYRRUNRPHQ WRRQWDDQZDWGHGUDDJNUDFKWYDQKHWV\VWHHPLVHQNDQGXVDOVHHQGXXU]DPHVLWXDWLH EHVFKRXZGZRUGHQ2PWHYRRUNRPHQGDWXLW]RQGHUOLMNHZLQWHUVPHW]HHUKRJHRIODJH DDQWDOOHQWHVWHUNJDDQGRRUZHJHQZHUGKHWEHRRJGHSRSXODWLHQLYHDXVWHHGVEHUHNHQG RYHUPLQVWHQVYLMIVHL]RHQHQ'HH[DFWHSHULRGHZRUGWYHUPHOGLQGHVRRUWWHNVWHQ

%LM WZHH VRRUWHQ ZHUGHQ JHHQ NZDQWLWDWLHYH SRSXODWLHGRHOHQ JHNZDQWLILFHHUG GH UHJHQZXOS HQ ZDWHUULHW]DQJHU %LM VRRUWHQ GLH DOOHHQ PDDU GRRUWUHNNHQ LV GLW ELM]RQGHU PRHLOLMN JHWHOGHDDQWDOOHQ]LMQYDDNPDDUHHQNRUWHPRPHQWRSQDPHLQKHWWRWDDODDQWDO GRRUWUHNNHQGH YRJHOV  (U ]LMQ RRN JHHQ FLMIHUJHJHYHQV RS JHZHVWHOLMN QLYHDX EHVFKLNEDDU

+HHOZDWZDWHUYRJHOVRRUWHQSURILWHUHQYDQHHQ]HNHUHYRHGVHODDQULMNLQJYDQVWLOVWDDQGH HQVWURPHQGHZDWHUHQRIYDQSHUPDQHQWHJUDVODQGHQ(HQODJHUHHXWURILsULQJVJUDDGRI YRHGVHOULMNGRPDOVJHYROJYDQZDWHU]XLYHULQJPHVWEHSHUNLQJHQHGNDQGXVLQEHSDDOGH JHYDOOHQ OHLGHQ WRW HHQ DIQDPH YDQ ZDWHUYRJHODDQWDOOHQ 'LW JHOGW RRN YRRU HHQ H[WHQVLYHULQJYDQJURQGJHEUXLN EYELMRYHUVFKDNHOHQYDQYULMLQWHQVLHIODQGERXZJHEUXLN QDDU H[WHQVLHYH EHJUD]LQJ LQ YDOOHLJHELHGHQ  (HQ DIQDPH RP GLH UHGHQHQ NDQ LQ EHSHUNWHPDWHDDQYDDUGEDDUJHDFKWZRUGHQPDDUGLHQW]RYHHOPRJHOLMNJHFRPSHQVHHUG WHZRUGHQGRRUJHVFKLNWHZDWHUYRJHOKDELWDWVWHFUHsUHQRSDQGHUHSODDWVHQ

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

:DW EHWUHIW DIVWHPPLQJ RS GH SRSXODWLHGRHOHQ YRRU =HHVFKHOGH HQ :DDVODQGKDYHQ GLH ]LMQ RSJHPDDNW LQ KHW NDGHU YDQ KHW 6LJPDSODQ HQ GRRU GH 9ODDPVH UHJHULQJ ]LMQ JRHGJHNHXUG EHVOLVVLQJ GG   VWHOOHQ ]LFK ELM GH *,+'¶V YRRU QLHW EURHGHQGH ZDWHUYRJHOV JHHQ JURWH SUREOHPHQ 'H SRSXODWLHGRHOHQ ]LMQ HU LPPHUV JHIRUPXOHHUGDOVHHQSHUFHQWDJHYDQGH9ODDPVH HQ1RRUGZHVW(XURSHVH SRSXODWLHHQ QLHWDOVHHQYDVWDDQWDO



2SSHUYODNWHHQNZDOLWHLWYDQGHKDELWDWV LQGLHQUHOHYDQW 

• YHUEHWHU RI EHKRXGVRSJDYHQ LQ IXQFWLH YDQ GH EHGUHLJLQJHQ RSJHVRPG LQ GH VWDDW YDQLQVWDQGKRXGLQJ

• VWUHYHQ QDDU RSWLPDOH DELRWLVFKH YRRUZDDUGHQ YHUPHOGHQ YDQ UHIHUHQWLHZDDUGHQ YRRUGHVOHXWHOYDULDEHOHQHQVOHXWHOSURFHVVHQ

• VWUHYHQ QDDU DDQJHSDVW RQWZLNNHOLQJV HQ RQGHUKRXGVEHKHHU ZHONH RSJDYHQ YRRU KHWKHUVWHORIGHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQGXXU]DPHSRSXODWLHV]LMQQRGLJ"  9RRUZDWHUYRJHOVLVVOHFKWVHHQ]HHUVXPPLHUHRSVRPPLQJPRJHOLMNLQGHVRRUWILFKHV'LW ]DOYHUGHUXLWJHZHUNWZRUGHQLQGHYROJHQGH,+'VWDSSHQ   ([WUDEHRRJGHGRHOHQYRRUQLHWVWDQGYRJHOV

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



YRRUWEHVWDDQ DIKDQNHOLMN YDQ RPVWDQGLJKHGHQ GLH QLHWV WH PDNHQ KHEEHQ PHW RQ]H UHJLRQDOHVLWXDWLH=HOIVDOVLQ9ODDQGHUHQ HQRPOLJJHQGHODQGHQ GHYHUEHWHULQJYDQGH RPJHYLQJVNZDOLWHLW RSWLPDDO ZRUGW YHU]HNHUG LV GH KDDOEDDUKHLG YDQ GH YRRUJHVWHOGH SRSXODWLHGRHOHQ JHGHHOWHOLMN DIKDQNHOLMN YDQ GH RPVWDQGLJKHGHQ LQ GH RYHUZLQWHULQJVJHELHGHQ HQ WLMGHQV GH WUHNSHULRGH 'LW ZHUG QLHW WHONHQV SHU VRRUW LQ GH WHNVW KHUKDDOG 2S (XURSHVH VFKDDO RQGHUYLQGHQ YRRUDO GH ODQJHDIVWDQGVWUHNNHUV GH ]JQ ³7UDQV6DKDULDQ PLJUDQWV´  GXLGHOLMN QHJDWLHYH LQYORHGHQ HQ QHPHQ ]H LQ YHUKRXGLQJVWHUNHUDIGDQVRRUWHQPHWHHQDQGHUPLJUDWLHSDWURRQ %LUG/LIH,QWHUQDWLRQDO  6DQGHUVRQ   'H XLWEUHLGLQJ YDQ GH 6DKHO]RQH ]RX HHQ EHODQJULMNH LQYORHG KHEEHQ RS GH RYHUOHYLQJVNDQVHQ WLMGHQV GH WUHN HQ LQ GH RYHUZLQWHULQJVJHELHGHQ LQ $IULND

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

0HQGLHQWHUQHWDOVELMGHWUHNNHQGHEURHGYRJHOVRRUWHQ ]LHKLHUERYHQ UHNHQLQJPHHWH KRXGHQ GDW GH VWDDW YDQ LQVWDQGKRXGLQJ YDQ QLHWEURHGYRJHOVRRUWHQ LQ 9ODDQGHUHQ LQ PHHURIPLQGHUHPDWHEHSDDOGNDQZRUGHQGRRURPVWDQGLJKHGHQLQDQGHUHIDVHQYDQGH OHYHQVF\FOXV EXLWHQ 9ODDQGHUHQ  0DDWUHJHOHQ GLH OHLGHQ WRW HHQ YHUEHWHULQJ YDQ GH RPJHYLQJVNZDOLWHLW LQ 9ODDQGHUHQ NXQQHQ RP GLH UHGHQ VRPV QLHW WRW KHW YHUKRRSWH UHVXOWDDW SRSXODWLHKHUVWHO  OHLGHQ 'LW EHWHNHQW HYHQZHO QLHW GDW 9ODDQGHUHQ JHHQ LQVSDQQLQJHQNDQOHYHUHQRPGHRPVWDQGLJKHGHQYRRUGLHVRRUWHQWHYHUEHWHUHQRDYLD LQWHUQDWLRQDOH DFWLHSODQQHQ HQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOH YHUGUDJHQ EY $IULFDQ(XUDVLDQ 0LJUDWRU\ :DWHUELUG$JUHHPHQW 'LWZRUGWHYHQZHOQLHWWHONHQVLQGHVRRUWILFKHVYHUPHOG

 

 3ULRULWHLWVWHOOLQJ

+HW UHODWLHI EHODQJ YDQ HHQ 6%=9 YRRU KHW EHUHLNHQ YDQ HHQ UHJLRQDDO JXQVWLJH VWDDW YDQ LQVWDQGKRXGLQJ YDQ HHQ VRRUW ZRUGW LQJHVFKDW GRRU KHW DDQGHHO YDQ GH 9ODDPVH EURHGYRJHOV  RI ELRJHRJUDILVFKH SRSXODWLH QLHWEURHGYRJHOV  ELQQHQ KHW EHWUHIIHQGH 6%=9WHEHSDOHQWRYKHWJHKHOH6%=9QHWZHUN

%URHGYRJHOV

2QGHU SULRULWHLWVWHOOLQJ ZRUGW LQ GH ILFKH YDQ HONH EURHGYRJHO VWHHGV HHUVW KHW DDQGHHO YDQGH9ODDPVHSRSXODWLHYHUPHOGGDW]LFKLQ9ODDQGHUHQELQQHQKHWJHKHHOYDQ6%=9 EHYLQGW

9HUYROJHQVZRUGWKHWUHODWLHIEHODQJYDQHONH6%=9YRRUKHWEHUHLNHQYDQHHQUHJLRQDDO JXQVWLJH VWDDW YDQ LQVWDQGKRXGLQJ YDQ HHQ VRRUW LQJHVFKDW GRRU KHW DDQGHHO YDQ GH 9ODDPVHSRSXODWLHELQQHQKHWEHWUHIIHQGH6%=9WHEHSDOHQ'HGUHPSHOZDDUGHQ   GLHJHKDQWHHUGZRUGHQRPRQGHUVFKHLGWHPDNHQWXVVHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHNODVVHQ YDQ6%=9¶V HVVHQWLHHOJHELHG]HHUEHODQJULMNJHELHGEHODQJULMNJHELHG ]LMQJHEDVHHUG RS GH ULFKWOLMQHQ YRRU GH 6WDQGDDUG *HJHYHQVIRUPXOLHUHQ (XURSHVH &RPPLVVLH   $OV ELMNRPHQG FULWHULXP ZRUGW GH SRWHQWLH YDQ HHQ JHELHG RP ELM WH GUDJHQ WRW KHW EHUHLNHQ YDQ HHQ JXQVWLJH VWDDW YDQ LQVWDQGKRXGLQJ LQ UHNHQLQJ JHEUDFKW +HW VWURRPGLDJUDP LQ )LJXXU  YHUGXLGHOLMNW GH UDQJRUGH YDQ EHLGH FULWHULD ELM KHW EHSDOHQ YDQKHWEHODQJYDQHHQ6%=9'HEHSDOLQJYDQEHODQJULMNKHLGYDQ6%=9¶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



LQVWDQGKRXGLQJVGRHOVWHOOLQJHQ SHU 6%=9 %LM EURHGYRJHOVRRUWHQ PHW HHQ ]HHU NOHLQH SRSXODWLHZRUGWLQSULQFLSHJHVWHOGGDWDOOHJHELHGHQZDDU]HPRPHQWHHOQRJYRRUNRPHQ HVVHQWLHHO]LMQ]HOIVDOYDOOHQKLHUYDQVRPPLJHLQGHNODVVHµ]HHUEHODQJULMN¶,QGLWJHYDO ZRUGHQ GH SHUFHQWHQ ELM HON JHELHG YHUPHOG ]RGDW KHW RQGHUVFKHLG LQ NODVVH WRFK GXLGHOLMNDIOHLGEDDULV



(VVHQWLHHO