Climate Prediction Center Monitoring Products
Dr. Gerald Bell
Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs, MD
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Outline
1. Climate monitoring versus assessment
2. Overview of CPC climate monitoring products 3. Main monitoring products
1. Global Temperature and Precipitation 2. Drought and Soil Moisture
3. ENSO
4. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) 5. Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricanes 6. Teleconnections
4. Summary
Climate Monitoring versus Assessment Climate Monitoring versus Assessment
• MonitoringMonitoring
• Examination of daily, monthly, Examination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc. analyses of
seasonal, etc. analyses of atmospheric and oceanic atmospheric and oceanic
variability variability
• Helps to identify and understand Helps to identify and understand current and past short-term
current and past short-term climate anomalies
climate anomalies
• Critical for understanding and Critical for understanding and predictions
predictions
• AssessmentAssessment
• Analysis of the current or past Analysis of the current or past conditions designed to aid our conditions designed to aid our understanding of a particular understanding of a particular climate phenomenon or event.
climate phenomenon or event.
• Examples: ENSO Assessments, Examples: ENSO Assessments, special climate assessments, special climate assessments,
seasonal climate asssessments.
seasonal climate asssessments.
• Critical for understanding and Critical for understanding and predictions
predictions
CPC home Page: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Index Expert Assessments
Expert Assessments
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Weather and Climate Hazards ENSO, Drought
Special Climate Summaries Annual Climate Assessments Seasonal Climate Monitoring
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Seasonal Climate Monitoring Seasonal Climate Monitoring
Seasonal Climate Summaries Index Expert Assessments
Seasonal Assessment, SST, Seasonal Assessment, SST,
Circulation in Tropics and Extratropics, Circulation in Tropics and Extratropics, Precipitation, Temperature, Animations Precipitation, Temperature, Animations
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Monitoring and Data Index
Other items on page:
Drought
Soil Moisture Snow Cover Degree Days
Africa Maps and Data Pacific Islands data Forecast Performance
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Daily Temperature Analysis Click
•Analyses in (F) and (C)
•Analyses include
Mean Temps, Max and Min Temps Daily, 5-day, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day
•Data Stations:
River Forecast Centers ~ 2500/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day
•Grid resolution: 0.5 X 0.5 degree
Surface Temperature Monitoring
Surface Temperature Monitoring
30-day Means and Anomalies
Monitoring and Data Temperature Time Series
Click 365-day Temperature Time Series
Surface Temperature Monitoring
Daily Precipitation Analysis Click
Precipitation Monitoring
Daily Precipitation Analysis
Click United States
•Gridded Precipitation Analyses include Daily, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day, 180 day, 365-day averages, month-to-date totals.
•Download gridded data
•Data Stations:
River Forecast Centers ~ 5000/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day Minimum of 500 stations required
•Grid resolution: 0.25 X 0.25 degree
•Quality Control:
Duplicate Station Check
Data check (buddy check, outliers NEXRAD check for spurious zeros
Precipitation Monitoring
Daily Precipitation Analysis
Example of 180-day Precipitation Analysis
Daily Precipitation Analysis
Precipitation Station Coverage
Click on station to get Precipitation time series Monitoring and Data Precipitation Time
Series Click
Global Precipitation Time Series’
Precipitation Monitoring
Example of 90-day Precipitation Time Series
Precipitation Monitoring
Products U.S. Climate
& Data Maps Monitoring
& Data Drought
Drought monitoring
Drought Monitoring Palmer Drought Index
Index Soil Moisture Monitoring
& Data
•Soil Moisture Analysis
•Outlook Maps
•Evaporation
•Runoff
•Recent Anomalies
•Recent Changes
•Climatology
•Drought Indicators
Soil Moisture
Soil Moisture
Example of Soil Moisture Anomalies
Climate Highlights Drought Assessment Home
U.S. Drought Assessment
Information Used to Make Drought Outlook
•Seasonal Outlooks
•Drought data
•Drought Indicator Blends
•Soil Moisture Data
•Precip. and Temp.
Climate & Weather El Niño /La Nina
Home
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
MJO
•Current Conditions—Weekly Update (.ppt)
•Animations
•Weekly and Monthly Analyses
•Diagnostics Discussion
•Tutorial
Powerpoint Presentations of latest ENSO and MJO conditions
ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation
MJO MJO Weekly Update
El Niño /La Nina
Weekly ENSO Update
Weekly MJO Update
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Weekly SST Anomalies Time Series of Weekly SST
Anomalies for the 4 Niño Regions
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Measures Anomalous Tropical Convection Measures Anomalous Tropical Convection
Wetter-than-average conditions (blue shading) Drier-than-average
conditions (orange/red shading)
Longitude Time
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation.
Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation.
Longitude
Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO)
200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies
show MJO the best
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Subsurface Temperature Departures Subsurface Temperature Departures
in Equatorial Pacific in Equatorial Pacific
Ocean model creates gridded sub-surface temperature using buoy data, sounding data from TOGA TAO array, etc.
EL Niño Warming along
Thermocline, Combined with down-welling phase
of Kelvin Wave triggered by MJO
Anomalous warmth in East due to Kelvin Wave.
180 120W
Mid-Feb
Early Mar
Mid-Mar
Early Apr
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Monitoring North Atlantic and Monitoring North Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Potential East Pacific Hurricane Potential
Monitoring and Data Index Monitoring Atlantic Hurricane Potential Monitoring East. Pac.
Hurricane Potential
Enhanced Tropical Easterly Jet (200-mb)
Favorable African Easterly Jet
Higher Pressure in Upper Atmosphere
Weaker Easterly Trade Winds (Dark Blue arrow)
Weaker Easterly Trade Winds (Dark Blue arrow)
Warmer SSTs
Lower Vertical Wind Shear and Surface Pressure
(Red Area)
Upper-level Easterlies Expand Westward
(Green arrows)
Analyses are related to Monitoring key Circulation features Analyses are related to Monitoring key Circulation features associated with Hurricane formation
associated with Hurricane formation
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Weekly SST Departures Weekly SST Departures
Very warm SSTs persist in Very warm SSTs persist in Tropical Atlantic
Tropical Atlantic
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
700-hPa: African Easterly Jet (AEJ) 700-hPa: African Easterly Jet (AEJ)
AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and
weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for active Hurricane season weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for active Hurricane season
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies Show strength of subtropical ridge across the North Show strength of subtropical ridge across the North
Atlantic Atlantic
Orange shows enhanced Orange shows enhanced subtropical ridge.
subtropical ridge.
Strong intra-seasonal Strong intra-seasonal variability due to MJO is variability due to MJO is seen.
seen.
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Monitoring and Data Index
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Climate and Weather Teleconnections
Monthly and Daily analyses Monthly and Daily analyses
Monthly:
Monthly:
Daily:
Daily:
Monthly: Patterns, Calculation procedure, Monthly: Patterns, Calculation procedure,
Description of 10 leading teleconnection patternsDescription of 10 leading teleconnection patterns
Time SeriesTime Series
Associated temp and precipitation departuresAssociated temp and precipitation departures Daily: Observed time series of PNA, NAO, AO.
Daily: Observed time series of PNA, NAO, AO.
MRF and ensemble forecastsMRF and ensemble forecasts
Daily
Daily MonthlyMonthly
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Time Series Based on standardized 500-hPa height anomalies
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
MRF Model Forecasts of NAO
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Ensemble Model Forecasts of NAO
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Summary Summary
Atlantic SST Anomalies 200-hPa Velocity
Potential Anomalies
