Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks
Dr. Gerald Bell Dr. Gerald Bell
Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster
Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center
Joint Collaboration With National Hurricane Center Hurricane Research Division
27 May 2008 27 May 2008
Archive of past outlooks and seasonal analyses Archive of past outlooks and seasonal analyses http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
Atlantic Hurricanes: Things to Know Atlantic Hurricanes: Things to Know
1. The hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. 2. Most hurricanes form during August, September, October.
3. We are in a high-activity era that began in 1995.
4. Scientists study climate patterns (weather patterns that last for months or longer) to make seasonal hurricane predictions.
5. Hurricane preparedness is very important for people in coastal and near-coastal regions, and should be done regardless of the seasonal hurricane forecast.
NOAA 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook NOAA 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
Near Near Normal Normal
50% 50%
Below Below Normal Normal
25% 25%
Above Above Normal Normal
25% 25%
70% probability for each range
Named Named Storms
Storms 9 - 14 9 - 14 Hurricanes
Hurricanes 4 - 7 4 - 7 Major
Major
Hurricanes
Hurricanes 1 - 3 1 - 3
An average season features 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
About NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks About NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
•
What the Seasonal Hurricane Outlook is
:A general guide to the expected overall strength of the upcoming hurricane season.
• What the Seasonal Hurricane Outlook is NOT:
It is not a prediction of how many hurricanes might affect the United States, or how many might affect any particular region.
How People Should Respond to the Seasonal Outlook:
People that could be affected by a hurricane should prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.
When Atlantic Hurricanes Form When Atlantic Hurricanes Form
Most hurricanes form during August, September, and October
Comparing the Strength of Hurricane Seasons Comparing the Strength of Hurricane Seasons
We see more hurricanes in some decades than others.
We have been seeing more hurricane activity since 1995. This is called a high-activity era.
Hurricane Tracks Show Where Hurricanes Form and Move Hurricane Tracks Show Where Hurricanes Form and Move
High Activity Era Low Activity Era
Many more hurricanes form in the green box during an active hurricane season.
Scientists watch these storms carefully, because they can sometimes affect the United States.
More People Now Live Near the Ocean More People Now Live Near the Ocean
It is good to have a plan. Know what to do if a hurricane threatens.
High activity era
Low
activity era
High- activity era
1900 1920 1950 1970 1994
F lo ri d a
Hurricanes Can Sometimes Produce Heavy Rainfall in Many States, even in the Midwest.
Colors show heavy rain
from a hurricane.
Inland flooding is now the leading cause of death from hurricanes
Summary Summary
1. Scientists study climate patterns (weather patterns that last for months or longer) to make seasonal hurricane predictions.
2. One of those climate patterns tends to last for decades (25-40 years).
3. We remain in an high-activity era that began in 1995.
4. We are not sure how long this increased activity will last, perhaps another decade or longer.
5. Hurricane preparedness is very important for people in coastal and near-coastal regions. This should be done regardless of the seasonal hurricane forecast.
6. Make a plan and be prepared. Do this before the season starts. It’s a very good thing to do.
