Application of the NMME for the Development of Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic and North Pacific Basins
Jae-kyung Schemm and Hui Wang, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Summary of Planned Work
To develop the dynamical–statistical intraseasonal forecast model by including the NMME-Phase 2 products for predicting 30-day mean Atlantic and North Pacific basin tropical cyclones, the proposed project will consist of following methodologies and procedures.
(1) To explore and establish the simultaneous relationships between basin-wide tropical cyclone activity and ocean/atmosphere conditions on a monthly timescale for moving windows of 30-day means, using observational data. The data include the NOAA Hurricane Best Track Dataset and the daily CFSv2 Reanalysis data. In addition to the tropical SSTs and vertical wind shear in the tropical basins used for the seasonal forecast, other variables, such as sea level pressure and an index representing monthly mean activity of the MJO, will also be employed.
(2) To validate the NMME retrospective forecasts. Similar analysis will be performed with the CFSv2 and NMME- Phase 2 hindcasts and the observed tropical cyclones and compared with the analysis in (1). The model-predicted variables having high correlations with the observed tropical cyclones will be selected as predictors.
(3) To develop a hybrid model for intraseasonal forecast of basin-wide tropical cyclone activities. Similar to Wang et al. (2009), a statistical forecast model will be developed based on the result from (2) and multiple linear regressions.
The 6 hourly or daily NMME-Phase 2 forecasts for a common target 30-day period compose multiple ensemble members for both mean and probabilistic forecasts.
Experimental real-time predictiion planned for the 2016 hurricane season.
