We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to forecast El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to forecast

El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

Courtesy of: Rosanna M. Sumagaysay, NASA/JPL Physical Oceanography DAC

Sea Surface Height and Temperature Anomalies: Dec 96 - Feb 99

•We established an operational in situ ENSO Observing System in 1997

•We have an ongoing operational

satellite surface temperature capability

•We will have continuing observations of sea surface topography from the

Jason-1 altimeter mission in 2000

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Mid-Nov Forecast (top) Observations

(bottom)

Courtesy: NOAA’s Climate Forecast

Center

PRECIPITATION Dec98/Feb99

Examples of the Influence of Climate on Weather Patterns La Nina and Events in 1998/99

Courtesy of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Global

Precipitation Anomalies

Forecast (above) &

Observed (below) for the 1997/98

El Nino

Courtesy of David Anderson

ECMWF

But phenomena in addition to ENSO influence our climate:

-- Pacific Decadal Oscillation -- Arctic Oscillation

-- Indian Ocean Dipole

-- Antarctic Circumpolar Wave

which we need to observe,

understand and forecast

and the observations must

include the subsurface

The Arctic Oscillation

Wintertime Potential Predictability

ENSO, PDO &

Arctic Oscillation ENSO & Pacific

Decadal

Oscillation (PDO) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Precipitation Surface Air Temperature

Sea Surface Temperature and

Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Correlation of dominant modes of variability

of SST and Precipitation in & around Australia

(Based on the analysis of a 40-year record)

Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Courtesy of Toshio Yamagata, U of Tokyo

Correlation between Rainfall and

the Indian Ocean Dipole Index

We are at a point in time where

we can consider putting it all together for the global oceans:

-- satellite and in situ observations -- observations and models

-- research and operations

Courtesy of Lakshmi Kantha

Colorado U

Nowcasts (11/25 - 12/25, 1998) Forecasts (thru 1/24/99)

•We had a satellite capability to

determine surface vector winds for 10 months in 1996/97

•We have that capability again with

Quickscat (July 1999) and Sea Winds

on ADEOS-2 (late 2001)

Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storms Harvey & Hilary Threaten North America

Observations from NASA’s Quikscat on Sept 20, 1999

Courtesy of Liu, Xie & Tang, JPL

Courtesy of :

Dudley Chelton, OSU

Quikscat-derived surface vector winds

July 21 to Oct 21, 1999

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Courtesy of Frank Wentz and Chelle Gentemann, RSS

Sea Surface Temperature (deg C)

August 24 - 26, 1998

Courtesy of F.J. Wentz, C. Gentemann, D. Smith (Remote Sensing Systems) and

D. Chelton (Oregon State University)

For the global oceans, we have:

-- satellite coverage of the surface -- communications

-- computers and models

all capable of operating in near real time However, we lack a complementary

in-situ system to observe the subsurface

WOCE Stations and a typical monthly XBT coverage

Argo is the next step in

global ocean observations

It will complement our existing global satellite capability

-- surface temperature -- topography

-- vector winds

P rofiling Autonomous Floats

These are

oceanic analogues to radiosondes used in operational

meteorology

Indian Ocean

Float

Trajectories

@ 1000-m depth 25-day steps Jan 95 - Dec 98

Courtesy of Breck Owens,

WHOI &

Russ Davis, SIO

Labrador Sea

Float

Trajectories

600 & 1400 m 10-day steps

Jan 97 - Dec 98

Courtesy of Breck Owens,

WHOI &

Russ Davis, SIO

Mixed Layer Depth

Deepest Blue 1,000 m or

more

10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98

Courtesy of Breck Owens,

WHOI &

Russ Davis, SIO

Real Time, Open Access

to Argo Data

All 190 floats

in the North Atlantic during December, 1998

reported temperature profiles in real time

via the GTS

Typical global coverage with 3,000 Argo floats

Recent Chronology

1997 -- National Oceanographic Partnership Program established

1998 -- International Year of the Ocean 6/98 -- National Ocean Conference

8/98 -- Congressional Hearing on Ocean Observations 4/99 -- Initial NOPP Report on an Integrated,

Sustained Ocean Observing System 7/99 -- WMO/IOC endorsed Argo

10/99 -- ‘OceanObs99’ Conference in St Raphael 2/00 -- Second NOPP Report in press

U.S. Funding Status:

-- President Clinton committed $12M over 3 years for 1/3 of the global array -- $1M start-up proposal funded in FY-99 for ~50 floats/year

-- Funding via National Oceanographic Partnership Program

-- $3M of new funds are available in FY-00 for ~120 floats/year

U.S. Funding Status (continued):

-- The $3M is contingent on other countries sharing the funding for Argo floats

-- Expressions of interest from Australia, Canada, E.C., France, Germany, Japan, South Korea & U.K.

Argo is one element

of a comprehensive international system for observing the global oceans

-- Global Eulerian Observatories

-- GODAE (2003-2005)

-- CLIVAR: ACVE & PBECS

-- GOOS/GCOS

Proposed Global Eulerian Observations

Courtesy of Bob Weller, WHOI

Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ? Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ?

Opportunities:

Opportunities:

• maturity of satellite and in-situ observing systems make real-time global observations feasible

• advances in scientific knowledge (e.g. TOGA, WOCE) and our ability to model the global ocean and assimilate data

2003-2005 a good time to mount 2003-2005 a good time to mount

a demonstration of feasibility and practicality a demonstration of feasibility and practicality Needs:

Needs:

• user demand for global ocean products for a variety of applications--including scientific research

• building a permanent, well-supported ocean observing system requires convincing demonstrations

GODAE GODAE

Objective:Objective: Provide a practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operational oceanographyoperational

To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for:

-- short-range open-ocean forecasts

-- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts -- initial conditions for climate forecast models

To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our:

-- understanding of the oceans

-- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems

-- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system

GODAE Requirements - in-situ GODAE Requirements - in-situ

The existing global, in-situ observing system is clearly inadequate for GODAE. The development of an appropriate network must take into account the complementarity of satellites and in-situ systems:

-- vertical structure from in-situ data -- broad surface coverage from satellites

-- different sampling and measurement schemes

-- calibration/validation of satellites with in-situ data

Argo was designed to meet this need.

It will provide the primary global data for GODAE, complementing existing operational and experimental systems.

Argo: a GODAE/CLIVAR project

From

From Mark TrailMark Trail, , September 26, 1999 September 26, 1999

For further information, contact:

Dr. Stan Wilson, Deputy Chief Scientist U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

202-482-3385; stan.wilson@noaa.gov