Climate Prediction Center

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Climate Prediction Center

O P E R A T I O N S B R A N C H D E V E L O P M E N T B R A N C H

D I R E C T O R

J a m e s D . L a v e r D e p u t y D i r e c t o r

J o h n E . J a n o w a k ( A c t i n g )

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 Operational prediction of climate variability

 Monitoring and diagnostics of global climate variability

 Development of monitoring and diagnostics data bases

 Working with users for disaster mitigation and economic advantages

Mission

Climate Prediction Center

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S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l W e s t e r l y

U p p e r W i n d s

A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d

P r e s s u r e

E l N i ñ o R e l a t e d A b o v e A v e r a g e O c e a n

T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d R a i n f a l l E l N i ñ o

W a r m , W e t

F e w H u r r i c a n e s

D r i e r M o r e

R a i n f a l l

L a N i ñ a R e l a t e d B e l o w A v e r a g e O c e a n

T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l

M o r e H u r r i c a n e s

E a s t e r l y U p p e r W i n d s

A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d

P r e s s u r e

A b o v e N o r m a l R a i n f a l l a n d T e m p e r a t u r e s

A c t i v e ( A b o v e A v e r a g e ) S e a s o n

Climate Patterns Affecting

Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

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6 0 N 5 0 N 4 0 N 3 0 N 2 0 N 1 0 N E Q 1 0 S 2 0 S 3 0 S 4 0 S 5 0 S 6 0 S

0 6 0 E 1 2 0 E 1 8 0 1 2 0 W 6 0 W 0

M a j o r W e a t h e r - R e l a t e d N a t u r a l D i s a s t e r s ( 1 9 9 9 L a N i n a )

S S

S S S

S S

F F F F F F

F

F F F

F F F F

F F

F F F F F F

F

F F

F

H H

D D

S

S t o r m s , H a i l , T o r n a d o e s

F

F l o o d s , L a n d s l i d e s

H

H u r r i c a n e s , T y p h o o n s

D

D r o u g h t

F l o o d 5 5 , 3 6 0 $ 1 . 3 B S t o r m s 1 6 , 8 6 3 $ 1 7 . 0 B D r o u g h t s 4 0 4 - C o l d W a v e s 4 0 9 $ 1 . 3 B

V i c t i m s I n s u r e d L o s s e s

Climate Prediction Center

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1 . C r o p /S t o c k D a m a g e 2 . E n e r g y S a v i n g s 3 . F a m i n e

4 . F i r e s

5 . F i s h e r i e s D i s r u p t i o n

8 . P e s t s I n c r e a s e d 9 . P r o p e r t y D a m a g e 1 0 . T o u r i s m D e c r e a s e d 1 1 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P r o b l e m s 1 2 . S o c i a l D i s r u p t i o n s

S o c i e t a l I m p a c t s f r o m 1 9 9 7 /9 8 E l N i n o

1

⁸

1 0 1 1 1 3 ⁶

4

1

6 4 1 0

1 1

1 4 3

4 7

1 1 1 2

1

5 1 4 1 4

1 1 1

1 4 4 3 6 8 9

9 9

1 0 1 3 1 2

5 1

1 4

6 9

9

1 1 78 9 1 9

4 7

8 9 1 3 1 1

5 2

~

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Operationally predict, monitor, and assess short-term climate variability, from below the sea surface to the land, lower atmosphere, and stratosphere

Work with users to mitigate losses and realize gains through increased understanding and prediction of the global climate system, emphasizing enhanced risks of extreme events

Employ and/or advance research to improve the

understanding and predictability of short-term climate variations

Mission:

Climate Prediction Center

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 Weather

 Short-term events such as snowstorms, tornadoes, etc.

 Forecasts have skill days in advance.

 Forecasts typically are deterministic.

 Climate

 Climatology: Average weather and range of possibilities over the course of many (often 30) years.

 Climate Events: Average of weather events over a

season or multiple seasons, in the context of climatology.

Most commonly, a persistent series or prolonged episode of anomalous weather, often driven or influenced by one or more identifiable global-scale climate phenomena.

 Forecasts typically are probabilistic, in terms of

monthly/seasonal averages and enhanced/reduced risks

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Climate Prediction Center

Breakthroughs Made in Climate Forecasts Since 1997

We have developed skill in forecasting certain aspects of climate (climate events)

major events such as El Niño / La Niña and their implications

smaller events with some variability (e.g., hurricanes,

drought, heat waves, threats to life and property)

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- 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Heidke

Skill

0 . 5 1 . 5 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 . 5 5 . 5 6 . 5 7 . 5 8 . 5 9 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 1 . 5 1 2 . 5 L e a d

1 9 9 5 - 9 7

1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 0

P r e c i p i t a t i o n

O u t l o o k

A b o v e N o r m a l B e l o w N o r m a l

H O W F A R I N A D V A N C E F O R E C A S T I S M A D E ( M O N T H S ) D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 7 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 8

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Climate Prediction Center

C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r ’s R e c e n t W i n t e r F o r e c a s t s

- 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Skill

0 . 5 1 . 5 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 . 5 5 . 5 6 . 5 7 . 5 8 . 5 9 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 1 . 5 1 2 . 5 1 9 9 5 - 9 7 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 0

H O W F A R I N A D V A N C E F O R E C A S T I S M A D E ( M O N T H S )

F o r e c a s t O b s e r v e d

D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 7 - F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 8

T e m p e r a t u r e