Climate Prediction Center

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O P E R A T I O N S B R A N C H D E V E L O P M E N T B R A N C H

D I R E C T O R

A n t s L e e t m a a D e p u t y D i r e c t o r

J a m e s D . L a v e r

Climate Prediction

Center

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 O p e r a t i o n a l p r e d i c t i o n o f c l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y

M o n i t o r i n g a n d d i a g n o s t i c s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y D e v e l o p m e n t o f m o n i t o r i n g a n d d i a g n o s t i c s d a t a b a s e s

W o r k i n g w i t h u s e r s f o r d i s a s t e r m i t i g a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c a d v a n t a g e s



C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r

N a t i o n a l C e n t e r s f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r e d i c t i o n s N a t i o n a l W e a t h e r S e r v i c e

h t t p : //w w w . c p c . n c e p . n o a a . g o v

M i s s i o n

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C L

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A

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0

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1 0 1 0

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A

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C l im a t e O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r - J a n u a r y 2 0 0 1 T e m p e r a t u r e

C l im a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

S e p t e m b e r - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 1 O c t o b e r - D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 0T e m p e r a t u r e T e m p e r a t u r e

T e m p e r a t u r e C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

A p r il - J u n e 2 0 0 1

T e m p e r a t u r e C l i m a t e O u t l o o k M a r c h - M a y 2 0 0 1 C l im a t e O u t l o o kT e m p e r a t u r e

F e b r u a r y - A p r i l 2 0 0 1

T e m p e r a t u r e C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

J a n u a r y - M a r c h 2 0 0 1 D e c e m b e r - F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 1

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k T e m p e r a t u r e

T e m p e r a t u r e

M a y - J u ly 2 0 0 1

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

T e m p e r a t u r e T e m p e r a t u r e

J u ly - S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 1 C l i m a t e O u t l o o kT e m p e r a t u r e

J u n e - A u g u s t 2 0 0 1 A u g u s t - O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1

R e le a s e D a t e : A u g u s t 1 7 , 2 0 0 0

C L C L

A

C L

A

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A A

2 0

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0

C L

A C L A

A 0

0

5

1 0

1 0 1 0

2 0 1 0

1 0

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C L

C L A

0

B

0 C L

5 5

C L

C L C L C L

A

5 5

0 0

A C L

C L

5 5

A A

0 0

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0 5

5

B 5

C L A

5 B

0 0 0

A A

C L

5 0

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A

C L

5

0

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5

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5 5 A

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C L C L

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C l i m a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

P r e c i p i t a t i o n P r e c i p i t a t i o n

P r e c i p i t a t i o n

O c t o b e r - D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 0 N o v e m b e r - J a n u a r y 2 0 0 1 D e c e m b e r - F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 1 P r e c i p i t a t i o n

P r e c i p i t a t i o n P r e c i p i t a t i o n P r e c i p i t a t i o n P r e c i p i t a t i o n

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

A p r il - J u n e 2 0 0 1 M a r c h - M a y 2 0 0 1

J a n u a r y - M a r c h 2 0 0 1

F e b r u a r y - A p r i l 2 0 0 1

P r e c i p i t a t i o n P r e c i p i t a t i o n

J u ly - S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 1

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k M a y - J u ly 2 0 0 1

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

A u g u s t - O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 J u n e - A u g u s t 2 0 0 1

R e l e a s e D a t e : A u g u s t 1 7 , 2 0 0 0

S e p t e m b e r - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 1

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B

A C L

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0

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C l i m a t e O u t l o o k S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 0

P r e c i p i t a t i o n C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 0 T e m p e r a t u r e

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

S e p t e m b e r - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 0 T e m p e r a t u r e

C l i m a t e O u t l o o k

S e p t e m b e r - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 0 P r e c i p i t a t i o n

R e l e a s e D a t e : A u g u s t 1 7 , 2 0 0 0

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D r o u g h t t y p e : u s e d o n l y w h e n i m p a c t s d i f f e r A = A g r i c u l t u r e W = W a t e r

F = W i l d f i r e d a n g e r

U . S . D r o u g h t M o n i t o r

A u g u s t 8 , 2 0 0 0

V a l i d 8 a . m . E D T

R e l e a s e d T h u r s d a y , A u g u s t 1 0 , 2 0 0 0

M a p f o c u s e s o n w i d e s p r e a d d r o u g h t.

L o c a l c o n d i ti o n s m a y v a r y.

O

E

D 2 ( A , F )

S e e a c c o m p a n y i n g t e x t s u m m a r y f o r f o r e c a s t s t a t e m e n t s

D 3 ( A , F )

F , A

W

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S e a s o n a l U . S . D r o u g h t O u t l o o k

T h r o u g h N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 0

S l o w I m p r o v e m e n t b y E n d o f P e r i o d

R e l e a s e d A u g u s t 1 8 , 2 0 0 0

S l o w I m p r o v e m e n t L i k e l y

L i k e l y t o P e r s i s t T h r e a t s N o

I m p r o v e m e n t L i k e l y

I m p r o v e m e n t L i k e l y b y E n d o f P e r i o d

P o s s i b l e

D e v e l o p m e n t

p r o b a b il i ti e s g u i d e d b y n u m e r o u s i n d i c a to r s , in c lu d i n g s h o r t a n d

lo n g - r a n g e s ta t is ti c a l a n d d y n a m i c a l f o r e c a s ts . S h o r t- te r m e v e n ts - - s u c h a s i n d i v id u a l s to r m s - - c a n n o t b e a c c u r a te ly f o r e c a s t m o r e th a n a f e w d a y s i n a d v a n c e , s o u s e c a u ti o n i f u s i n g th i s o u tlo o k f o r a p p li c a t i o n s – s u c h a s c r o p s – th a t c a n b e a f f e c te d b y s u c h e v e n ts . I n i ti a l d r o u g h t a r e a s - - s h o w n

s c h e m a ti c a l ly – a r e a p p r o x i m a te d f r o m th e D r o u g h t M o n ito r . F o r w e e k ly u p d a te s

o n d r o u g h t, s e e th e la t e s t D r o u g h t M o n i to r m a p a n d te x t.

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NOAA LABS UNIVERSITIES

(NCAR/IRI) OAR/OGP

NASA NESDIS DOE (ACPI)

INTEGRATED SUITE OF CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND

THREATS ASSESSMENTS

NWS FIELD OFFICES FEMA

OTHER U.S. AGENCIES

PRIVATE SECTOR:

ENRON, GOLDMAN/SACHS, KOCH, MARS, PIONEER,

TASC, VA POWER, ETC.

OTHER AGENCIES:

CALIF. DEPT. OF WATER RESOURCES, RED

CROSS, DOD, TVA, ETC.

REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS

(OGP)

Service Partners

DEVELOPMENT OF END-TO-END U.S. CLIMATE PREDICTION SERVICES

Research Partners NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Customer Outreach

NATIONA LC EN T ER S F OR E N V I R O N M E N TA LP R E DICT

ION

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T hr ea ts O utl oo k S um m er 2 00 0

Enhanced Riskfor Drought

Reduced HurricaneActivity

EnhancedHurricaneActivity

L in kin g W ea th er an d C lim ate F or ec as ts fo r Im pr ov ed B en efi ts

W or kin g W ith th e P riv ate Se cto r to U se N O A A F or ec as ts an d D ata F or E co no m ic B en efi ts.

E xte nd in g t he L ea d T im e F or M itig ati on of N atu ra l D isa sto rs N O A A C lim a te S e rv ic e s W ill Im p le m e n t N e w P ro d u c ts F o r S o c ia l G o o d

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P ro b a b ili ty F o re c a s ts fo r A n o m a lo u s T e m p e ra tu re s

December 1997 - February1998Forecast

Observed Observed

Observed +10% +10%

+20% +20% -5%-5% Forecast December 1998 - February 1999

Forecast December 1999- February 2000

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P ro b a b ili ty F o re c a s ts fo r A n o m a lo u s P re c ip it a tio n

December 1999 - February 2000 December 1998 - February 1999Observed

Observed December 1997 - February 1998

F o re c a st

Observed

F o re c a s t

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1 0 %

1 5 % 7 %

1 2 % 1 1 % 9 % 8 %

1 2 % 8 % 9 %

E c o n o m ic B e n e f i t s

E n h a n c e d R i s k f o r D r o u g h t R e d u c e d H u r r i c a n e

A c t i v i t y

D is a s t e r M it i g a t io n S a t e ll it e s

E N S O O b s e r v in g S y s t e m

A R G O

N W S I n t e g r a t e d S u i t e o f F o r e c a s t s

E n e r g y S a v i n g s ( % ) B a s e d o n H e a t i n g D e g r e e D a y s

W in t e r D e c 1 9 9 9 - F e b 2 0 0 0

T h r e a t s O u t lo o k S u m m e r 2 0 0 0

E n h a n c e d H u r r ic a n e A c t i v i t y

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1 . C r o p / S t o c k D a m a g e 2 . E n e r g y S a v i n g s 3 . F a m i n e

4 . F i r e s

5 . F i s h e r i e s D i s r u p t i o n 6 . H e a l t h R i s k s

7 . H u m a n F a t a l i t i e s

8 . P e s t s I n c r e a s e d 9 . P r o p e r t y D a m a g e 1 0 . T o u r i s m D e c r e a s e d 1 1 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P r o b l e m s 1 2 . S o c i a l D i s r u p t i o n s

1 3 . W i l d l i f e F a t a l i t i e s 1 4 . W a t e r R a t i o n i n g

S o c i e t a l I m p a c t s f r o m 1 9 9 7 /9 8 E l N i n o

C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r

1

1 ⁸

1 0 1 1 1 3 6

4

1 6 4 1 0

1 1

1 4 3

4 7

1 1 1 2

1

5 1 ⁴ ^{1 4}

1 1 1

1 4 4 3 6 8 9

9 9

1 0 1 3 1 2

5 1

1 4

6 9

9

1 1

7 8 9 1 9

4 7

8 9 1 3 1 1

5 2

~

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6 0 N 5 0 N 4 0 N 3 0 N 2 0 N 1 0 N E Q 1 0 S 2 0 S 3 0 S 4 0 S 5 0 S 6 0 S

0 6 0 E 1 2 0 E 1 8 0 1 2 0 W 6 0 W 0

M a j o r W e a t h e r - R e l a t e d N a t u r a l D i s a s t e r s ( 1 9 9 9 L a N i n a )

C l i m a t e P r e d i c t i o n C e n t e r

S _S

S S S

S S

F F F F F F

F

F F F

F F F F

F F

F F F F F F

F

F F

F

H H

D D

S

S t o r m s , H a i l , T o r n a d o e s

F

F l o o d s , L a n d s l i d e s

H

H u r r i c a n e s , T y p h o o n s

D

D r o u g h t

F l o o d 5 5 , 3 6 0 $ 1 . 3 B S t o r m s 1 6 , 8 6 3 $ 1 7 . 0 B D r o u g h t s 4 0 4 - C o l d W a v e s 4 0 9 $ 1 . 3 B

V i c t i m s I n s u r e d

L o s s e s

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Extended Pacific Jet Stream& Amplified Storm Track

L

H

Variable Pacific Jet Stream Low Pressure

BlockingHighPressure PolarJetStream

PolarJetStream Warm

Cold

Dry Dry

Dry

Dry Wet

Wet

Warm Wet Persistent

Variable

E l N in o ~

L a N in

a ~

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Locations For Major Storms (Days Per Winter Season) Extensive StormsDec 97-Mar 98 MassiveIce StormJan 98

Strong“Northeaster”StormsJan-Feb 98Tornado OutbreakFeb 98

Frequent StormsNov 97-Mar 98

E xa m p le s o f C lim a te C o n tro l O v er W ea th e r P at te rn s . T h e B a si s o f L in ki n g C lim at e a n d W ea th e r

L A N in a 1 9 98 -1 9 9 9 ~

Above AverageStorms, HurricaneForce WindsNov 98 - Feb 99

Active HurricaneSeasonAug-Nov 98 TornadoesJan 1999 No Major “Northeasters”

Below NormalStorminessDec 98-Feb 99 Major Ice StormJan 99 MajorSnow StormJan 99

Extensive IceStormDec 98DroughtSpring 1999 DiminishedHurricaneThreat

J et S tr e am S h ift s A ss o c ia te d w ith C lim at e V a ria b ilit y P ro d u c e R e g io n al C h an g e s In E xt re m e W ea th e r E ve n ts

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C l i m a t e P a t t e r n s A ffe c t i n g A t l a n t i c H u r r i c a n e S e a s o n s

M o r e R a i n f a l l

L a N i ñ a R e l a t e d B e l o w A v e r a g e O c e a n

T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l

M o r e H u r r i c a n e s

E a s t e r l y U p p e r W i n d s

A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d

P r e s s u r e

A b o v e N o r m a l R a i n f a l l a n d T e m p e r a t u r e s

A c t i v e ( A b o v e A v e r a g e ) S e a s o n

S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l W e s t e r l y

U p p e r W i n d s

A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d

P r e s s u r e

E l N i ñ o R e l a t e d A b o v e A v e r a g e O c e a n

T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d R a i n f a l l E l N i ñ o

W a r m , W e t

F e w H u r r i c a n e s

D r i e r