Climate Prediction Center
O P E R A T I O N S B R A N C H D E V E L O P M E N T B R A N C H
D I R E C T O R
J a m e s D . L a v e r D e p u t y D i r e c t o r
J o h n E . J a n o w a k ( A c t i n g )
Operational prediction of climate variability
Monitoring and diagnostics of global climate variability
Development of monitoring and diagnostics data bases
Working with users for disaster mitigation and economic advantages
Mission
Climate Prediction Center
S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l W e s t e r l y
U p p e r W i n d s
A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d
P r e s s u r e
E l N i ñ o R e l a t e d A b o v e A v e r a g e O c e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d R a i n f a l l E l N i ñ o
W a r m , W e t
F e w H u r r i c a n e s
D r i e r M o r e
R a i n f a l l
L a N i ñ a R e l a t e d B e l o w A v e r a g e O c e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e s a n d S u p p r e s s e d R a i n f a l l
M o r e H u r r i c a n e s
E a s t e r l y U p p e r W i n d s
A n o m a l o u s U p p e r L e v e l W i n d s a n d
P r e s s u r e
A b o v e N o r m a l R a i n f a l l a n d T e m p e r a t u r e s
A c t i v e ( A b o v e A v e r a g e ) S e a s o n
Climate Patterns Affecting
Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
6 0 N 5 0 N 4 0 N 3 0 N 2 0 N 1 0 N E Q 1 0 S 2 0 S 3 0 S 4 0 S 5 0 S 6 0 S
0 6 0 E 1 2 0 E 1 8 0 1 2 0 W 6 0 W 0
M a j o r W e a t h e r - R e l a t e d N a t u r a l D i s a s t e r s ( 1 9 9 9 L a N i n a )
S S
S S S
S S
F F F F F F
F
F F F
F F F F
F F
F F F F F F
F
F F
F F
F
H H
H H
D D
S
S t o r m s , H a i l , T o r n a d o e s
F
F l o o d s , L a n d s l i d e s
H
H u r r i c a n e s , T y p h o o n s
D
D r o u g h t
F l o o d 5 5 , 3 6 0 $ 1 . 3 B S t o r m s 1 6 , 8 6 3 $ 1 7 . 0 B D r o u g h t s 4 0 4 - C o l d W a v e s 4 0 9 $ 1 . 3 B
V i c t i m s I n s u r e d L o s s e s
Climate Prediction Center
1 . C r o p /S t o c k D a m a g e 2 . E n e r g y S a v i n g s 3 . F a m i n e
4 . F i r e s
5 . F i s h e r i e s D i s r u p t i o n
8 . P e s t s I n c r e a s e d 9 . P r o p e r t y D a m a g e 1 0 . T o u r i s m D e c r e a s e d 1 1 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P r o b l e m s 1 2 . S o c i a l D i s r u p t i o n s
S o c i e t a l I m p a c t s f r o m 1 9 9 7 /9 8 E l N i n o
1
1
81 0 1 1 1 3 6
4
1
6 4 1 01 1
1 4 3
4 7
1 1 1 2
1
5 1 4 1 4
1 1 1
1 4 4 3 6 8 9
9 9
1 0 1 3 1 2
5 1
1 4
6 9
9
1 1 78 9 1 9
4 7
8 9 1 3 1 1
5 2