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Correlation between
Weekly SST and Weekly TC Activity Weekly TC activity smoothed
Example of Atlantic weekly TC activity Smoothed vs. Unsmoothed
Color shadings (correlation > 0.1):
Above the 95% significance level
/cpc/namecpt/hui/2015_R2O/SST
Correlation between
Weekly SST and Weekly TC Activity Weekly TC activity unsmoothed
Example of Atlantic weekly TC activity Smoothed vs. Unsmoothed
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The forecast skill of weekly TC activity using MJO as a predictor is lower than using vertical or SLP as a predictor, consistent with the lower forecast skill for
Correlation between weekly mean CFSR SCP and LSR o Total field. o
from the CFSR
Percentage Percentage PercentagePercentage
o LSR: Local Storm Report (hail, tornado, damaging wind) o Anomaly correlation (AC) for 7-day mean.. o 3-month shift windows o Conditional AC (SCP
Weekly Meeting 07Jul2017.. Co-variability between SCP
The correlation (GEFS SCP, OBS LSR) can be increased by averaging both SCP and LSR anomalies in a larger domain prior to calculating the correlation. The skill for forecasting
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