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Hindcast of weekly TC activity for ATL, ENP, and WNP One predictor

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Hindcast of weekly TC activity for ATL, ENP, and WNP One predictor

 Vertical wind shear (VWS)

 SLP1 (local slp, negatively correlated with TC)

 SLP2 (remote slp, positively correlated with TC) Two predictors

 VWS + SLP1

 VWS + SLP2

 SLP1 + SLP2 Three predictors

 VWS + SLP1 +SLP2

Regions to constructed predictors

 Week 1 and week2: same areas

 Week 3 and week 4: same areas

(2)

Regions for averaging vertical wind shear

(3)

Regions for averaging SLP1 and SLP2

SLP1 SLP2

(4)

One Predictor

 Wind shear

 SLP1

 SLP2

(5)

Two Predictors

 Wind shear + SLP1

 Wind shear + SLP2

 SLP1 + SLP2

(6)

Three Predictors

 Wind shear + SLP1 + SLP2

(7)

Forecast Skill: Anomaly Correlation 1999 – 2014: 31 weeks x 16 years

99% significance level

Predictors

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