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 Potential predictability of weekly TC activity assessed by using predictors derived from observations  Forecast skills for weekly TC activity using MJO as an additional predictor

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 Potential predictability of weekly TC activity assessed by using predictors derived from observations

 Forecast skills for weekly TC activity using MJO as an additional predictor

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(2)

99% significance level

Forecast skill of CFSv2 for

predictors VWS and SLP 2

(3)

99% significance level

Skill using predictors derived from OBS (Potential predictability)

Compare forecast skills with potential predictability 3

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99% significance level

MJO: Weekly Indices (PC1, PC2)

4

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99% significance level

The forecast skills of CFSv2 for VWS and SLP are better than for MJO. 5

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A high correlation implies a good predictor.

99% significance level

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99% significance level

Using predictors derived from OBS

Correlation between OBS TC activity

and predictor derived from OBS 7

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99% significance level

Compare the skills using MJO indices with other individual predictors

The forecast skill of weekly TC activity using MJO as a predictor is lower than using vertical or SLP as a predictor, consistent with the lower forecast skill for weekly MJO indices and weaker correlation between the MJO indices and weekly TC activity.

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 Skill with MJO PC1 as an additional predictor D Skill with MJO PC2 as an additional predictor Color bar: Without using MJO as a predictor

Compare the skills by including MJO indices as additional predictors 9

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