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Weekly Meeting 02Jun2017
Correlation between GEFS forecasted daily SCP and CFSR SCP, 1996–2012, lead time: day 1 – day 14
o Anomaly correlation o Rank correlation
PDF of daily mean SCP over the U.S. from the CFSR data
1
SCP Values
PDF (Percentage)
PDF: CFSR SCP over the U.S. Daily data 1996 – 2012
Total
Anomaly
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Correlation between weekly mean CFSR SCP and LSR o Total field. o
Percentage Percentage PercentagePercentage
o LSR: Local Storm Report (hail, tornado, damaging wind) o Anomaly correlation (AC) for 7-day mean.. o 3-month shift windows o Conditional AC (SCP
Weekly Meeting 07Jul2017.. Co-variability between SCP
The correlation (GEFS SCP, OBS LSR) can be increased by averaging both SCP and LSR anomalies in a larger domain prior to calculating the correlation. The skill for forecasting
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The standard deviation of the forecasted LSR3 anomalies is much smaller than the observed for both weeks 1 and 2.2. The forecasted LSR3 anomalies
