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 Gridding of the data from SPC 1ox1

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 Gridding of the data from SPC 1

o

x1

o

box vs. 5

o

x5

o

box

 Year-to-year (Y2Y) difference

(2)

1ox1o box vs.

5ox5o box

Data with 5x5 box are smoother.

2

(3)

1ox1o box vs.

5ox5o box

(4)

CONUS Total

x

4

(5)

x CONUS Total

(6)

CONUS Year-to-year Change

6

(7)

CONUS Year-to-year Change

The data seem to have some problem.

(8)

8

(9)
(10)

11-year correlation

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(11)
(12)

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(13)

11-year correlation

(14)

 For both tornado and hail, the first and second SST modes are La Nina-like pattern. The second SST mode is slightly shifted towards the eastern Pacific.

 The first and second SST modes are associated with opposite tornado/hail anomaly patterns.

 The first mode shows a close relationship between SST and tornado/hail during 2005 – 2014, whereas the second mode shows a close relationship during 1995 – 2004.

 Statistical forecast models can be developed based on these lagged SVD relationships.

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