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Weekly Meeting 03Oct2017 Examined hybrid model forecasts for three major severe weather events

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Weekly Meeting 03Oct2017

Examined hybrid model forecasts for three major severe weather events

 Joplin Missouri tornado, May 22, 2011

 Oklahoma/Kansas tornado outbreak, May 3, 1999

 Central Alabama tornado outbreak, April 27, 2011

Adjustment for forecasted LSR3 anomalies

 FCST LSR3 = FCST LSR3 Anomaly + OBS LSR3 Clim

 SD(OBS) >> SD(FCST)

 FCST LSR3 = FCST LSR3 Anomaly x SD(OBS)/SD(FCST) + OBS LSR3 Clim

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The standard deviation of the forecasted LSR3 anomalies is much smaller than the observed for both weeks 1 and 2.

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The forecasted LSR3 anomalies can be

adjusted by the ratio of the observed SD of LSR3 to that of the predicted.

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Joplin Missouri Tornado, May 22, 2011

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Joplin Missouri Tornado, May 22, 2011

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Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast 5o x 5o

x SD(obs)/SD(fcst)

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OK/KS Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999

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Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast 5o x 5o

x SD(obs)/SD(fcst)

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Central Alabama Tornado, April 27, 2011

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Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast 5o x 5o

x SD(obs)/SD(fcst)

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