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Observation vs. Week-2 LSR3 Forecast

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Observation vs. Week-2 LSR3 Forecast

Daily LSR3 OBS Weekly LSR3

For March, April, May 2019

Selected OBS: Most of daily OBS with LSR3 > 100

: OBS LSR3 within the shapes of the week-2 forecast (72%) Right column: Daily OBS is in the middle of week 2.

Middle column: Daily OBS is the first day of week 2.

Probability forecast: 35%, 50%, and 75% change above normal

(2)

03/09 LSR3=

116

03/12 LSR3=

92

03/14 LSR3=

314

(3)

04/07 LSR3=

156

04/13 LSR3=

302

04/14 LSR3=

653

04/17

(4)

04/19 LSR3=

674

04/26 LSR3=

194

04/28 LSR3=

94

(5)

05/03 LSR3=

106

05/04 LSR3=

129

05/05 LSR3=

260

05/06

(6)

05/09 LSR3=

174

05/16 LSR3=

190

05/17 LSR3=

183

(7)

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