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LSR3 LSR3: tornadoes, hail and damaging wind eventsEF1–EF5 ≥ 1’ LSR3 (weekly total storm reports) Week-2 Severe Weather ForecastForecast product:

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Week-2 Severe Weather Forecast

Forecast product: LSR3 (weekly total storm reports) LSR3: tornadoes, hail and damaging wind events

EF1–EF5 ≥ 1’

LSR3

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Methodology

Model: Hybrid dynamical–statistical model

 Using GEFS predicted environmental variables as a predictor

 Based on statistical relationship between predictor and LSR3

GEFS Hindcast Historical OBS

Predictor: SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter)

SCP = (CAPE/1000 J kg1)×(SRH/50 m2 s2)×(BWD/20 m s1)

CAPE: Convective available potential energy

SRH: Storm-relative helicity

BWD: Bulk wind difference

When SCP > 1, the chance for severe weather to occur is high.

Forecast Skill: Week-2 LSR3 (Cross-validated over MAM 1996–2012)

Linear regression model

SVD-based model Linear

regression model

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Extreme Severe Weather Event: 04/19/2019

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