Update
03Oct2017 Alima:
Examined hybrid model forecasts for three major severe weather events
Joplin Missouri tornado, May 22, 2011
Oklahoma/Kansas tornado outbreak, May 3, 1999
Central Alabama tornado outbreak, April 27, 2011
Compared CFSR SCP vs. CFSv2 SCP for April 1 and May 1, 1999
Re-downloading CFSv2 from 2001, stored in /cpc/cfsr/alima
To do: Calculating weekly mean
Compare CFSR SCP CFSR and CFSv2 SCP for 04/01 and 05/01/1999
May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Week 2 Week 2
Week 1 Week 1
Related GEFS 16-day hindcasts: May 9, 13, 17, 21 for 5/22/2011
Longer lead Shorter lead
Hybrid Model Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast
The forecasted intensity decreases with lead time. 7
GEFS 16-day hindcasts: April 23, 27, May 1 for 5/3/1999 April/May 1999
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
April/May 1999
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
April/May 1999
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
April/May 1999
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Week 2
Week 1 Week 1
Beyond Week 2
Hybrid Model Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast
GEFS 16-day hindcasts: April 15, 19, 23, 27 for 4/27/2011 April/May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
April/May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
April/May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
April/May 2011
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
Week 2
Week 1 Week 2
Week 1
Hybrid Model Week 1 and 2 LSR3 Forecast
For both Weeks 1 and 2, longer-lead forecasts are better than the shorter-lead.
The standard deviation of the forecasted LSR3 anomalies is much smaller than the observed for both weeks 1 and 2.
The forecasted LSR3 anomalies can be adjusted by the ratio of the observed SD of LSR3 to that of the predicted..
