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– August 29, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET August 23

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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7566. Questions about the USAID FEWSNET activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for FEWSNET, 1-202- 219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

August 23 – August 29, 2012

Heavy amounts of precipitation and high winds from the passage of Hurricane Isaac are expected over Hispaniola during the next week.

During the last seven days, moderate to heavy amounts of rainfall were received throughout Hispaniola. In Haiti, the highest weekly accumulations (>75mm) were observed in the Gulf region, with more moderate totals in the central and northern departments of the country. This increase in rainfall and moisture during the middle of August is expected to help mitigate local moisture deficits and benefit the development of local crops; however 30-day moisture deficits still range between 75 to 90 percent of normal for the Artibonite, Nord and Nord-Est departments of Haiti since the middle of July. Model forecasts show the development of Tropical Storm Issac in the Caribbean which is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane prior to making landfall over southern Hispaniola during the earlier portion of the outlook period. The passage of Hurricane Issac is expected to produce heavy amounts of precipitation and high sustained winds over many local areas along the coasts and further inland of Hispaniola. Some of these heavy rainfall amounts may trigger flooding, costal storm surges, damages to infrastructure, and possibly landslides in the higher elevations of the island.

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During the past seven days, the northern two-thirds of Hispaniola received heavy (> 50mm) rains as Hurricane IRENE moved to the north of the island during the past few days..

As for the next seven days, moderate to locally heavy (30 – 75 mm) rains are expected to continue over Hispaniola, with the heaviest (> 75 mm) rains forecasted

For the upcoming outlook period, moderate to locally heavy (30 – 50 mm) rains are expected across the island; with the potential for the heaviest (> 50 mm) rainfall amounts

For the upcoming outlook period, light to moderate precipitation accumulations (20 – 50 mm) are expected across the island; with the potential for the heaviest (> 50 mm)

Model forecasts show a more seasonable distribution of rainfall for the upcoming outlook period; however the potential for above-average rainfall remains for many local areas

During the past week, a reduction in rainfall was observed over Hispaniola, with little to light rain received across most parts of the Island except central Haiti and portions

During the last seven days, a slight increase in precipitation was observed across central and northern Haiti, with average to below average rainfall observed

While some local areas have received favorable rainfall amounts in the last week, the suppression of seasonal rainfall has resulted in strengthening moisture