34 Appendices
A. Listed soccer clubs
Table 10. Descriptive details of listed football clubs included in the sample.
Club Full name Datastream code Country List date Wins Draws Losses
Aalborg Aalborg Boldspilklub DK:AAB Denmark 11-9-1998 46 24 40
Aarhus Aarhus Gymnastikforening (AGF) DK:ELB Denmark 20-5-1988* 23 22 33
AIK Allmänna Idrottsklubben W:AIK Sweden 30-10-2000 66 32 22
Ajax Ajax FC H:AJAX Netherlands 11-5-1998 91 32 13
AS Roma Associazione Sportiva Roma I:ASR Italy 22-5-2000 92 31 17
Benfica Sport Lisboa e Benfica P:SLB Portugal 21-5-2007 102 13 9
Besiktas Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü TK:BJK Turkey 19-2-2002 83 27 18
Brondby Brøndbyernes Idrætsforening (IF) DK:BIF Denmark 5-4-1988* 52 24 29
Celtic Celtic FC CCP Scotland 1-9-1995 120 23 9
Dortmund Borussia Dortmund D:BVB Germany 30-10-2000 77 28 31
FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen (owner: Parken Sport & Entertainment) DK:PSE Denmark 30-11-1997* 68 28 15
FC Porto FC Porto P:FCP Portugal 1-6-1998 87 24 14
Fenerbahce Fenerbahçe Spor Kulübü (SK) TK:FNR Turkey 17-9-2004 79 28 18
Galatasaray Galatasaray Spor Kulübü (SK) TK:GSR Turkey 19-2-2002 72 30 29
Juventus Juventus FC I:JUVE Italy 19-12-2001 114 20 15
Lazio Società Sportiva (SS) Lazio I:SSL Italy 6-5-1998 72 32 39
Lyon Olympique Lyonnais F:OLG France 8-2-2007 78 29 40
Ruch Ruch Chorzów PO:RCW Poland 31-12-2009* 49 37 62
Silkeborg Silkeborg Idrætsforening (SIF) DK:SIF Denmark 1-4-1989 10 16 25
Sporting Sporting Clube de Portugal P:SCP Portugal 2-6-1998 88 26 9
* The IPO date of these soccer clubs is not available on the internet. The mentioned dates are the dates when stock price details became available on Datastream.
The number of wins, draws and losses are the observations included in this study’s sample and is generated from the games played during the football seasons from 2013-14 to 2016-17. FC = Football club.
35 Table 11. Descriptive club summary and outcomes per country
Teams
Average club size
Average
Club standing Total Wins Draws Losses
Total 20 2482 1469 526 487
100% 59% 21% 20%
Denmark 5 29.11 6.65 455 199 114 142
France 1 85.50 3.25 147 78 29 40
Germany 1 368.57 3.50 136 77 28 31
Italy 3 178.37 3.17 432 278 83 71
Netherlands 1 161.87 1.75 136 91 32 13
Poland 1 1.41 9.75 148 49 37 62
Portugal 3 19.35 2.00 372 277 63 32
Scotland 1 88.91 1.00 152 120 23 9
Sweden 1 3.57 2.50 120 66 32 22
Turkey 3 227.08 2.42 384 234 85 65
This table shows the number of football teams per country that are included in the sample of this study.
Moreover, the table presents the number of wins, draws and losses per country during the seasons 2013- 14 till 2016-17.
Table 12. List of indices used in the event study
Country Stock market
Denmark OMX Copenhagen - Total Return Index
European football index France
STOXX Europe Football Index France CAC 40 - Total Return Index
Germany DAX 30 Performance - Total Return Index
Italy FTSE MIB Index - Total Return Index
Netherlands AEX - Total Return Index
Poland MSCI Poland - Total Return Index
Portugal Portugal PSI 20 - Total Return Index
Scotland FTSE 100 - Total Return Index
Sweden OMX Stockholm 30 - Total Return Index
Turkey BIST National 100 - Total Return Index
36 C. Alternative approach to forecast football game outcomes
Table 13. The number and distribution of expected and real football game outcomes, alternative [a] over [b].
Expected outcome Real outcome Total
Wins Draws Losses games
Strongly expected to win 1201 309 216 1726
70% 18% 13% 100%
Weakly expected to win 154 86 96 336
46% 26% 29% 100%
Weakly expected to lose 79 90 99 268
29% 34% 37% 100%
Strongly expected to lose 30 40 80 150
20% 27% 53% 100%
Table 13 shows the distribution of expected and real outcomes of football games. The percentages show the outcome’s share of the specific expectation group. The expectations are based on bookmarkers’
betting odds (see Chapter 3, Methodology).
37 D. Aggregate details of club’s stocks
Table 14. Aggregate details of club’s stocks
Club Alpha P-value Beta P-value Average return Standard deviation
Aalborg 3.177*** 0.000 -0.005*** 0.000 0.002 0.084
Aarhus 241.229*** 0.000 -0.514*** 0.000 0.000 0.035
AIK 0.117*** 0.000 0.001 0.049
Ajax 45.518*** 0.000 0.016*** 0.000 0.000 0.019
AS Roma 12.465*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.001 0.035
Benfica 0.002*** 0.000 0.001 0.045
Besiktas -267.990*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.001 0.030 Brondby 100.398*** 0.000 -0.279*** 0.000 -0.001 0.026
Celtic 8.713** 0.014 0.023*** 0.000 0.001 0.007
Dortmund -6.793*** 0.001 0.005*** 0.000 0.001 0.017
FC Copenhagen 121.751*** 0.000 -0.082*** 0.000 0.000 0.016
FC Porto 11.323*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.002 0.050
Fenerbahce 310.544*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.000 0.023 Galatasaray 174.240*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.000 0.031
Juventus -12.730*** 0.000 0.001*** 0.000 0.001 0.024
Lazio -0.393*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.001 0.030
Lyon -28.485*** 0.000 0.004*** 0.000 0.001 0.025
Ruch 26.245*** 0.000 -0.003*** 0.000 0.001 0.054
Silkeborg 0.042*** 0.000 0.002 0.048
Sporting 7.316*** 0.000 0.000*** 0.000 0.003 0.063
Table 4 reports the alpha and beta of listed soccer clubs that are estimated using the market model, serving the country’s market index as a benchmark. The parameters are estimated using Eviews. Empty cells indicate that the calculated alpha (constant) from the market model was not significant and therefore excluded from the model for these variables.
***, **, and * show a significant value based on the student t-statistic on the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.
38 E. The univariate analysis: a complete overview
Table 15. The impact of goal difference on abnormal returns the day(s) after a won or lost football game.
Win Loss
AAR(0) AAR(1) AAR(2) CAAR(0,1) CAAR(0,2) AAR(0) AAR(1) AAR(2) CAAR(0,1) CAAR(0,2)
1 0.14 -0.01 0.05 0.13 0.19 -1.65 -0.25 0.15 -1.90 -1.75
0.35 0.94 0.73 0.52 0.46 0.00 0.18 0.47 0.00 0.00
2 0.90 0.11 0.38 1.01 1.39 -0.95 -0.03 -0.19 -0.98 -1.18
0.00 0.60 0.53 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.94 0.68 0.05 0.04
3 0.87 -0.29 0.05 0.58 0.63 -2.16 0.15 0.26 -2.01 -1.75
0.00 0.18 0.85 0.09 0.13 0.01 0.80 0.64 0.02 0.04
2-3 0.89 -0.03 0.26 0.86 1.12 -1.29 0.02 -0.07 -1.27 -1.34
0.00 0.84 0.51 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.96 0.86 0.00 0.00
3+ 1.00 -0.17 0.09 0.82 0.91 -1.90 0.27 -0.27 -1.63 -1.90
0.00 0.36 0.63 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.57 0.61 0.01 0.01
4+ 1.16 -0.03 0.14 1.12 1.26 -1.28 0.55 -1.52 -0.72 -2.24
0.00 0.93 0.61 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.43 0.21 0.35 0.15
5+ 1.23 -0.11 -0.27 1.12 0.85 -1.38 -0.31 -6.23 -1.70 -7.93
0.02 0.77 0.45 0.10 0.22 0.38 0.82 0.37 0.19 0.26
Source: Datastream. The first column shows the goal difference in a football game. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
Table 16. Stock price reactions for home and away football games, in %.
Win Draw Loss
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) Home 0.40 -0.41 0.19 -0.01 0.18 -0.82 -0.28 0.31 -1.10 -0.79 -1.51 0.11 0.26 -1.39 -1.13
0.00 0.00 0.56 0.97 0.62 0.00 0.29 0.24 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.72 0.44 0.00 0.02
Away 0.90 0.50 0.12 1.39 1.51 -0.68 -0.03 0.06 -0.71 -0.65 -1.48 -0.27 -0.15 -1.74 -1.90
0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.79 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.20 0.49 0.00 0.00
Source: Datastream. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
39 Table 17. Abnormal return reactions after a win/draw/loss in different moments in the season.
Month Win Draw Loss
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) 1 2 0.82 0.02 0.09 0.84 0.93 -0.66 0.35 0.14 -0.32 -0.18 -1.99 0.57 0.26 -1.42 -1.16
0.00 0.93 0.76 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.30 0.70 0.51 0.79 0.00 0.26 0.53 0.03 0.05
3 4 0.33 -0.06 0.06 0.27 0.33 -0.51 -0.22 -0.10 -0.73 -0.84 -1.56 -0.07 -0.21 -1.63 -1.84
0.18 0.80 0.80 0.38 0.41 0.07 0.49 0.76 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.80 0.68 0.00 0.00
5 6 0.28 0.35 -0.32 0.63 0.30 -1.15 -1.22 0.47 -2.37 -1.90 -1.78 -0.20 0.58 -1.98 -1.40
0.45 0.34 0.39 0.28 0.68 0.02 0.05 0.38 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.74 0.34 0.01 0.05
7 8 1.57 -0.17 1.68 1.40 3.08 -0.11 -0.21 0.16 -0.32 -0.16 -1.43 -0.55 -0.01 -1.99 -2.00
0.00 0.66 0.44 0.01 0.17 0.88 0.78 0.84 0.77 0.92 0.02 0.36 0.98 0.00 0.00
9 10 0.62 0.05 0.07 0.67 0.74 -1.22 0.46 0.31 -0.76 -0.45 -1.77 -0.22 -0.14 -1.99 -2.14
0.01 0.83 0.67 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.24 0.36 0.19 0.47 0.00 0.48 0.69 0.00 0.00
11 12 0.67 -0.13 -0.08 0.54 0.46 -0.90 -0.41 0.46 -1.32 -0.85 -0.89 -0.22 -0.33 -1.11 -1.44
0.00 0.62 0.67 0.10 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.25 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.58 0.28 0.03 0.02
7-10 0.90 -0.02 0.55 0.89 1.44 -0.85 0.24 0.26 -0.62 -0.36 -1.64 -0.35 -0.09 -1.99 -2.08
0.00 0.92 0.40 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.51 0.45 0.24 0.59 0.00 0.24 0.75 0.00 0.00
11-2 0.74 -0.06 0.01 0.68 0.69 -0.79 -0.05 0.31 -0.84 -0.53 -1.33 0.10 -0.10 -1.23 -1.33
0.00 0.72 0.97 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.83 0.25 0.01 0.23 0.00 0.76 0.69 0.00 0.00
3-6 0.31 0.07 -0.06 0.38 0.32 -0.69 -0.50 0.06 -1.20 -1.14 -1.65 -0.12 0.11 -1.77 -1.66
0.12 0.71 0.76 0.17 0.37 0.00 0.08 0.83 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.68 0.77 0.00 0.00
Source: Datastream. The first column presents the analyzed months of a year. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
40 Table 18. Stock price reactions in abnormal returns from football games, categorized in final standing of the club.
Win Draw Loss
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) 1 2 3 0.53 0.02 -0.01 0.55 0.54 -1.05 0.03 0.11 -1.03 -0.92 -1.32 -0.20 -0.36 -1.53 -1.89
0.00 0.87 0.91 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.89 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.18 0.00 0.00
1 2 0.49 0.11 -0.03 0.60 0.57 -1.04 0.01 0.13 -1.03 -0.90 -1.28 -0.33 -0.40 -1.61 -2.02
0.00 0.40 0.81 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.97 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.11 0.00 0.00
4 5 6 1.06 -0.21 1.73 0.85 2.58 -0.21 -0.43 -0.10 -0.64 -0.73 -1.24 -0.16 0.40 -1.39 -0.99
0.00 0.41 0.33 0.03 0.17 0.69 0.48 0.85 0.48 0.54 0.01 0.67 0.17 0.03 0.10
7 8 9 0.71 -0.35 -0.16 0.37 0.21 -0.41 -0.31 0.67 -0.72 -0.05 -1.73 0.26 0.93 -1.47 -0.53
0.11 0.34 0.63 0.48 0.68 0.38 0.27 0.29 0.13 0.96 0.00 0.42 0.07 0.01 0.42
10 + 1.15 -0.02 0.37 1.13 1.50 0.63 -0.83 0.47 -0.20 0.28 -2.00 -0.19 -0.14 -2.19 -2.32
0.08 0.97 0.46 0.20 0.10 0.45 0.22 0.63 0.83 0.84 0.00 0.75 0.81 0.00 0.00
7 + 0.89 -0.21 0.06 0.68 0.74 0.12 -0.58 0.57 -0.45 0.12 -1.88 0.01 0.34 -1.87 -1.53
0.02 0.53 0.83 0.15 0.12 0.80 0.12 0.34 0.38 0.89 0.00 0.97 0.38 0.00 0.00
Source: Datastream. The first column presents the standing at the end of a season. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
Table 19. Football clubs’ abnormal returns after a game with respect to the club size.
Win Draw Loss
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) Small 0.78 0.08 0.55 0.86 1.42 -0.04 -0.72 0.85 -0.76 0.09 -1.80 -0.02 -0.03 -1.83 -1.86
0.02 0.82 0.55 0.04 0.17 0.92 0.09 0.06 0.20 0.90 0.00 0.95 0.93 0.00 0.00
Medium 0.62 -0.03 0.01 0.59 0.61 -0.84 0.17 -0.14 -0.66 -0.80 -1.19 -0.14 0.06 -1.33 -1.27
0.00 0.88 0.94 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.48 0.55 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.58 0.83 0.00 0.00
Large 0.52 -0.06 0.12 0.46 0.58 -1.21 0.05 -0.12 -1.16 -1.27 -1.37 -0.25 -0.02 -1.62 -1.64
0.00 0.58 0.31 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.92 0.00 0.00
Source: Datastream. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
41 F. The multivariate analysis: a complete overview
Table 20a. Club’s stock price effects from expected and real football game outcomes, with respect to club size.
Win Draw Loss
Exp. Size
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) SEW Small -0.05 -0.03 -0.59 -0.08 -0.67 -1.31 -1.27 1.42 -2.58 -1.15 -1.84 -0.01 -0.21 -1.85 -2.06 0.91 0.95 0.18 0.88 0.31 0.20 0.15 0.09 0.05 0.45 0.07 0.99 0.80 0.05 0.13 SEW Medium 0.30 -0.18 0.07 0.11 0.19 -1.19 0.14 0.24 -1.05 -0.81 -1.18 0.48 0.04 -0.71 -0.66
0.11 0.36 0.71 0.68 0.60 0.00 0.69 0.39 0.03 0.12 0.02 0.29 0.94 0.26 0.41 SEW Large 0.37 -0.17 0.13 0.21 0.34 -1.60 0.03 -0.36 -1.57 -1.92 -1.57 -0.27 -0.15 -1.84 -1.99
0.01 0.16 0.34 0.25 0.16 0.00 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.59 0.00 0.00 WEW Small 2.60 -0.24 0.11 2.35 2.46 -0.18 0.02 0.94 -0.16 0.78 -1.50 -0.28 -0.56 -1.78 -2.34
0.00 0.73 0.86 0.03 0.05 0.83 0.98 0.23 0.92 0.67 0.01 0.63 0.49 0.01 0.01 WEW Medium 1.80 0.67 -0.32 2.47 2.16 -0.73 0.26 -0.44 -0.47 -0.91 -1.48 -0.50 -0.16 -1.98 -2.14
0.00 0.10 0.51 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.54 0.36 0.30 0.19 0.00 0.18 0.71 0.00 0.00 WEW Large 0.87 0.09 0.14 0.96 1.11 -1.00 -0.02 0.30 -1.02 -0.72 -1.76 -0.32 0.63 -2.08 -1.45
0.02 0.74 0.51 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.95 0.42 0.03 0.25 0.00 0.24 0.10 0.00 0.04 WEL Small 0.38 0.59 3.99 0.97 4.96 0.30 -0.63 0.81 -0.34 0.47 -2.46 0.06 -0.10 -2.39 -2.50
0.56 0.22 0.33 0.11 0.24 0.63 0.27 0.31 0.66 0.67 0.00 0.91 0.86 0.00 0.00 WEL Medium 1.64 -0.22 0.64 1.42 2.06 0.16 -0.06 -0.58 0.10 -0.47 -1.03 -1.01 0.76 -2.04 -1.28
0.01 0.71 0.53 0.12 0.12 0.78 0.92 0.29 0.89 0.48 0.11 0.10 0.31 0.02 0.09 WEL Large 2.23 1.38 -0.24 3.61 3.37 0.68 0.37 0.30 1.05 1.35 -0.41 -0.14 -0.01 -0.55 -0.55
0.11 0.12 0.73 0.03 0.11 0.51 0.57 0.64 0.29 0.31 0.56 0.69 0.99 0.50 0.65 SEL Small 0.95 0.92 -1.22 1.87 0.66 1.67 -1.44 -0.32 0.23 -0.09 -1.12 0.20 0.95 -0.92 0.03 0.26 0.71 0.29 0.51 0.82 0.23 0.27 0.84 0.87 0.97 0.24 0.84 0.26 0.41 0.97 SEL Medium -0.79 0.39 -2.19 -0.40 -2.59 -0.16 1.68 -2.98 1.52 -1.46 -0.26 0.41 -0.41 0.14 -0.27
0.18 0.91 0.55 0.92 0.11 0.91 0.35 0.23 0.60 0.47 0.71 0.71 0.62 0.89 0.83 SEL Large -0.88 1.75 -1.35 0.87 -0.49 -0.76 -0.20 0.39 -0.96 -0.56 -0.16 -0.12 -1.85 -0.28 -2.13
0.64 0.27 0.06 0.76 0.85 0.60 0.83 0.67 0.69 0.86 0.92 0.92 0.04 0.83 0.22
42 Table 20b. Club’s stock price effects from expected and real football game outcomes, with respect to the period within a season.
Win Draw Loss
Exp. Month
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) SEW 7-10 0.47 -0.22 -0.03 0.24 0.21 -1.83 0.21 0.43 -1.62 -1.19 -0.20 -0.62 -0.12 -0.83 -0.95 0.03 0.33 0.88 0.41 0.53 0.00 0.59 0.14 0.01 0.06 0.74 0.32 0.81 0.39 0.37 WEW 7-10 1.55 0.00 0.21 1.56 1.77 -0.59 0.18 0.56 -0.41 0.15 -1.79 -0.16 0.31 -1.95 -1.65
0.00 0.99 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.82 0.33 0.72 0.91 0.00 0.77 0.57 0.01 0.02 WEL 7-10 2.45 1.19 6.36 3.64 10.00 0.68 -0.37 -0.14 0.30 0.16 -2.16 -0.50 -0.68 -2.66 -3.34
0.01 0.08 0.34 0.00 0.15 0.49 0.67 0.88 0.79 0.91 0.00 0.36 0.34 0.00 0.00 SEL 7-10 0.16 -3.02 -3.30 -2.85 -6.15 0.17 0.65 -1.07 0.82 -0.24 -1.86 0.75 -0.42 -1.11 -1.53
0.47 0.68 0.40 0.69 0.41 0.91 0.58 0.68 0.64 0.95 0.13 0.40 0.65 0.18 0.19 SEW 11-2 0.46 -0.11 0.01 0.35 0.37 -1.19 -0.25 -0.06 -1.44 -1.50 -2.15 0.35 -0.40 -1.80 -2.20
0.01 0.58 0.94 0.15 0.26 0.00 0.39 0.86 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 0.27 0.00 0.00 WEW 11-2 1.75 0.48 -0.21 2.23 2.02 -1.20 0.56 0.20 -0.64 -0.44 -0.84 -0.36 0.19 -1.20 -1.01
0.00 0.22 0.68 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.22 0.62 0.24 0.50 0.12 0.39 0.67 0.08 0.11 WEL 11-2 1.37 -1.05 0.36 0.32 0.68 1.06 -0.32 1.51 0.74 2.25 -1.77 -0.29 -0.30 -2.06 -2.36
0.07 0.06 0.60 0.69 0.36 0.11 0.61 0.08 0.37 0.09 0.01 0.78 0.68 0.11 0.06 SEL 11-2 -0.43 0.10 -0.22 -0.33 -0.55 -1.41 -0.10 0.57 -1.51 -0.94 0.95 0.79 0.57 1.74 2.31 0.78 0.93 0.59 0.82 0.69 0.41 0.92 0.55 0.55 0.77 0.37 0.58 0.34 0.08 0.06 SEW 3-6 -0.07 -0.16 0.05 -0.23 -0.18 -1.25 -0.27 0.03 -1.52 -1.49 -1.79 0.29 0.29 -1.50 -1.21
0.74 0.44 0.85 0.43 0.64 0.00 0.54 0.92 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.57 0.61 0.03 0.12 WEW 3-6 1.61 0.16 -0.09 1.77 1.68 -0.25 -0.47 -0.23 -0.71 -0.95 -1.79 -0.60 -0.84 -2.39 -3.24
0.01 0.76 0.83 0.03 0.09 0.40 0.21 0.69 0.07 0.22 0.00 0.13 0.29 0.00 0.00 WEL 3-6 -0.61 0.99 0.11 0.37 0.48 -0.43 -0.25 0.00 -0.68 -0.68 -1.52 0.01 0.81 -1.52 -0.71
0.35 0.06 0.86 0.53 0.55 0.41 0.58 1.00 0.32 0.40 0.05 0.99 0.20 0.02 0.41 SEL 3-6 1.06 3.16 -1.21 4.22 3.01 3.28 -3.22 -0.27 0.06 -0.22 -1.30 -0.71 0.77 -2.01 -1.24
0.32 0.22 0.29 0.18 0.34 0.11 0.13 0.08 0.97 0.90 0.28 0.59 0.56 0.26 0.40
43 Table 20c. Club’s stock price effects from expected and real football game outcomes, with respect to the standing at the end of the season.
Win Draw Loss
Exp.
Final Standing
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) SEW 1 2 3 0.23 -0.12 0.03 0.11 0.14 -1.35 -0.12 0.15 -1.47 -1.32 -1.52 -0.21 -0.42 -1.73 -2.15
0.05 0.33 0.79 0.53 0.52 0.00 0.63 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.11 0.00 0.00 WEW 1 2 3 1.75 0.44 -0.05 2.19 2.14 -0.85 0.14 0.46 -0.71 -0.25 -1.18 -0.23 -0.47 -1.41 -1.88
0.00 0.19 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.16 0.07 0.55 0.01 0.62 0.49 0.02 0.02 WEL 1 2 3 1.37 1.11 -0.65 2.48 1.83 -0.41 0.74 -0.50 0.33 -0.17 -1.40 -0.36 0.00 -1.77 -1.76
0.09 0.04 0.13 0.01 0.07 0.45 0.26 0.27 0.68 0.83 0.01 0.41 1.00 0.01 0.03 SEL 1 2 3 0.54 0.22 -1.52 0.76 -0.75 2.11 -1.29 -1.82 0.81 -1.00 -0.07 0.45 -0.10 0.38 0.28 0.68 0.80 0.54 0.63 0.81 0.35 0.43 0.21 0.75 0.76 0.94 0.77 0.90 0.81 0.88 SEW 4 5 6 0.72 -0.58 -0.39 0.14 -0.25 -1.50 -0.29 -0.11 -1.79 -1.90 0.32 1.35 0.51 1.67 2.18 0.06 0.06 0.28 0.77 0.70 0.00 0.63 0.81 0.01 0.02 0.77 0.15 0.40 0.37 0.18 WEW 4 5 6 1.71 0.04 0.10 1.75 1.85 -0.62 0.34 -0.47 -0.28 -0.75 -3.07 -0.09 0.58 -3.16 -2.58
0.01 0.94 0.81 0.02 0.05 0.48 0.79 0.65 0.88 0.77 0.00 0.83 0.17 0.00 0.00 WEL 4 5 6 0.34 0.25 16.87 0.59 17.46 1.71 -1.78 0.46 -0.07 0.39 -0.97 -1.59 0.70 -2.57 -1.86
0.49 0.79 0.29 0.53 0.28 0.14 0.00 0.57 0.94 0.79 0.22 0.02 0.23 0.02 0.09 SEL 4 5 6 -0.57 3.17 -4.73 2.60 -2.14 -2.61 0.28 0.54 -2.33 -1.79 0.75 -0.08 -1.18 0.67 -0.51
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.46 0.95 0.23 0.57 0.73
SEW 7 + 0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.02 -0.03 -0.02 12.07 65.17 36.39 34.02 25.66 0.07 81.96 88.48 0.75 3.16 0.01 53.60 31.24 0.01 39.07 WEW 7 + 0.01 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.02 -0.02 12.73 15.03 88.60 78.18 86.08 99.22 38.36 89.41 69.00 74.21 2.38 4.25 88.62 0.06 0.09 WEL 7 + 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.00 0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 -0.02 -0.02
31.57 96.58 63.65 24.55 16.31 46.22 16.21 24.25 77.63 47.60 0.33 48.57 91.81 2.77 4.55 SEL 7 + 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.00
56.38 71.86 4.46 64.54 81.22 46.50 55.94 96.05 90.53 97.82 13.96 84.23 34.47 26.00 67.50
44 Table 20d. Club’s stock price effects from expected and real football game outcomes, with respect to the goal difference in a game.
-3 to -7 -2 -1
Goal difference
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) SEW -0.91 -0.46 -0.94 -1.37 -2.31 -1.48 0.15 -0.19 -1.33 -1.52 -1.51 0.07 0.03 -1.44 -1.41 0.47 0.60 0.19 0.35 0.21 0.00 0.80 0.68 0.07 0.15 0.00 0.84 0.93 0.00 0.01 WEW -1.66 -0.59 -1.38 -2.25 -3.62 -0.79 0.12 -0.27 -0.67 -0.95 -1.94 -0.49 0.12 -2.43 -2.31
0.16 0.54 0.11 0.08 0.01 0.25 0.87 0.81 0.37 0.41 0.00 0.08 0.70 0.00 0.00 WEL -3.24 0.80 0.70 -2.44 -1.74 -0.58 -0.48 -0.49 -1.06 -1.55 -1.90 -0.49 0.24 -2.39 -2.16
0.02 0.42 0.58 0.02 0.24 0.41 0.55 0.46 0.31 0.10 0.00 0.18 0.63 0.00 0.01 SEL -0.95 0.65 -0.27 -0.30 -0.57 -1.10 0.20 0.61 -0.90 -0.29 -0.53 -0.18 0.61 -0.71 -0.09
0.41 0.42 0.72 0.84 0.69 0.36 0.92 0.68 0.19 0.85 0.78 0.85 0.53 0.50 0.93
1 2 3 to 6
Goal difference
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2)
AAR (0)
AAR (1)
AAR (2)
CAAR (0,1)
CAAR (0,2) SEW 0.59 -0.40 0.13 0.19 0.32 0.35 -0.04 -0.22 0.30 0.09 -0.05 -0.03 0.10 -0.08 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.52 0.50 0.36 0.05 0.84 0.33 0.25 0.82 0.79 0.89 0.61 0.77 0.95
WEW 2.62 0.43 -0.17 3.05 2.88 2.97 0.34 -0.10 3.31 3.21 0.64 0.04 0.06 0.69 0.75
0.00 0.25 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.86 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.86 0.85 0.09 0.13
WEL 4.59 1.81 0.39 6.41 6.80 1.51 1.11 8.39 2.62 11.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.07 0.07
0.10 0.23 0.73 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.33 0.00 0.21 0.99 0.89 0.99 0.90 0.89 SEL 2.64 6.05 -1.33 8.70 7.37 -2.69 1.22 -0.58 -1.48 -2.06 0.40 -0.79 -1.56 -0.39 -1.95
0.13 0.37 0.21 0.27 0.29 0.39 0.14 0.53 0.07 0.14 0.47 0.70 0.25 0.40 0.43 Table 20a-d show the effect of football game outcomes on a club’s stock price. Each table presents the response for different prediction groups (SEW, WEW, WEL, and SEL) in combination with another variable, where SEW = strongly expected to win, WEW = weakly expected to win, WEL = weakly expected to lose, and SEL = strongly expected to lose. AAR = Average abnormal percentage return and CAAR = the average cumulative abnormal percentage return. Each value in the below the AAR or CAAR represents the probability value based on the student’s t-statistic.
