Humanitarian Organizations and the adoption of Conflict Prevention

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Humanitarian Organizations and the adoption

of Conflict Prevention

A special focus on Venezuela

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This thesis is submitted for obtaining the Joint Master’s Degree in International Humanitarian Action. By submitting the thesis, the author certifies that the text is from his own hand, does not include the work of someone else unless clearly indicated, and that the

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ABSTRACT

The beginning of the 1990s was characterized by the end of the Cold War, a conflict that brought conscience into wanting a better world. A world where peace could be tangible, bringing the materialization of the field of conflict prevention. The prevention of violent or armed conflicts has remained today in theory and practice similar as it was more than two decades ago. Nevertheless, the suggestion of a possible relationship between this element and humanitarianism has guided this research to analyze this possible jointure. A research that is characterized by a methodology that has been planned through the application of a qualitative research, along an inductive research approach that eventually led to fruitful findings. Humanitarian organizations are able to contribute through their activities to de-escalation of violent or armed conflicts because of their mandates and their relationship to the United Nations (UN)-carried peace operations. Furthermore, in order to

comprehend in depth conflict prevention, a geographical region was chosen with a special focus: Venezuela. The current one-sided violence, humanitarian crisis, economic failure, and authoritarianism that Venezuela is experiencing has aided this research to find that in the case of a conflict with such complex factors there is a potentiality for it to escalate and become a violent conflict. Therefore, preventive steps must be taken. Currently, the approval by the Organization of American States (OAS) to resolution 1080 or carta

democrática1_{serves as a feasible example of the application of a conflict prevention} mechanism: sanctions. Such sanctions would aid to restore the economy and democracy in this country. However, as of today this resolution has yet to be executed. Considering all the aforesaid, a signal to the international arena can be made. If our world is eager for

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. The logic of inductive approach………13

Figure 2. Number of conflicts around the world………25

Figure 3. Galtung’s Violence triangle……….62

Figure 4. Galtung’s violence triangle………..64

Figure 5. Galtung’s violence triangle………..64

Figure 6. Galtung’s list of basic human needs……….67

Figure 7. Venezuela’s map……….69

Figure 8. Galtung’s violence and peace triangles………..99

Figure 9. Galtung’s conflict triangle……….108

Figure 10. Galtung’s conflict triangle………110

Figure 12. Galtung’s conflict triangle ……….115

Figure 14. Galtung’s conflict triangle………..116

Figure 15. Venezuelan lack of basic needs – inspired in Galtung basic needs approach…119 Figure 16. Galtung’s violence triangle………120

Figure 17. Venezuela’s violence triangle – based on Galtung theory………121

Figure 18. Galtung’s conflict and violence triangle………123

Figure 19. Galtung’s conflict, violence, and peace triangles………125

Figure 20. Galtung’s peace triangle………126

Figure 21. Galtung’s violence triangle………127

Figure 21. Galtung’s violence triangle………130

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1. INTRODUCTION

The challenge to prevent the existence of violent conflicts is one that remains today in the 21st_century.2 _{The history of our world has proved that societies can change. From violence}

to peace, and from warlike to peaceful societies as in the dramatically change of Japan. A country whose soil witnessed the birth of one of the world’s great warrior traditions: the code of Bushido and the Samurai, and who now devotes itself to economic growth while keeping a small military force since the end of World War II (WWII).3_{History shows that}

examples like this are short on the list. For this reason the promotion of peace through the study of conflict, and more specifically conflict prevention has been included in the

agendas of diverse actors.4

As a concept, the study of conflict has led to the development of signs that aim to de-escalate conflicts. Meaning that, through the analysis of the actors involved in a given conflict, their socialization, perceptions, and behavior a violent conflict can de-escalate in intensity. Thus, leading to the cease of arms usage, the halt of violent behavior, or even the resolution of a violent conflict. Furthermore, the previous is followed by the aim to prevent a violent conflict from developing. Such action can be possible through conflict prevention, considered a tool that aims to thwart violence before it emerges. However, such concept becomes a tangible one when it applies its varied mechanisms, namely: early action, sanctions, preventive deployment, or preventive diplomacy. The aforesaid

2_{Ramsbotham, O., Miall, H. and Woodhouse, T. (2011). Contemporary conflict resolution. Cambridge, UK:}

Polity, pp.36.

3_{Barash, D. and Webel, C. (2009). Peace and conflict studies. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications,}

pp.39.

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10 concepts have been developed especially after the end of the Cold War, a time in history that preceded the rise in intra-state conflicts within highly unstable states. This mentioned increment regarding such particular type of conflicts has made humanitarianism be more tangible than before. Their work helping those more in need within natural and man-made emergency situations has increased their exposure and presence within these complex situations. This in turn has led them to have more responsibilities outside the umbrella of the humanitarian mandates – principles that regulate all the activities that humanitarians exercise within emergency situations.

As such, considering the importance of conflict prevention and the de-escalation of violent conflicts to a current world that is aiming for peace, then the doubt arises whether the humanitarian mandates can coincide with these factors. Thus, forming a strong network that includes the analysis, mechanisms, activities, and mandates that relate to the already mentioned concepts for the prevention of conflict through humanitarianism. Such

prevention can be applicable to situations like the one Venezuela is experiencing at the moment. The fact that this highly fragile and unstable state is suffering an acute

humanitarian and economic crisis cannot be hidden; such volatile elements are

considered signs that can make a conflict become a violent one. Hence, the integration of the humanitarian mandates with conflict prevention activities can possibly aid countries as this one, immersed in a complex situation that if not tackled on time can develop to be one more on the long list of intra-state conflicts.

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11 mechanisms; and if so can this jointure aid countries like Venezuela, suffering a multilevel crisis worsen by an authoritarian government that has vetoed foreign aid. Such relation between humanitarianism and conflict prevention is controversial. If not done correctly, taking into account both concepts and their limitations, humanitarianism and their mandates can be negatively affected. The consequences can entail for them to be considered a political or biased party within a conflict, or their core mandates could be dismembered along their credibility to enter highly complex situations. Such

consequences can occur if what is considered truly humanitarian and their mandates is forgotten while adopting conflict prevention mechanisms. The aim is to prevent the emergence of violent conflicts through the aid of humanitarian action and their mandates as neutral and impartial actors that are capable of entering emergency situations without being dependent of any government. Such action can signify the entering of

humanitarianism and their mandates in political and unstable situations that do not present tangible violence. However, humanitarianism has been developing the last hundred years, and perhaps now it is the time to stop staring back and look forward towards a better and reinforced humanitarianism that can prevent death and devastation instead of being shaped by them.

To achieve the previous, the overall aim will be to research the following main question.

What is the nature of conflict prevention in the Venezuelan violence triangle; and to what extent are humanitarian organizations and its mandates able to contribute to the

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12 In this way then, humanitarian organizations and their mandates are the central focus, conflict prevention as a dependent variable will be investigated, and the Venezuelan violence triangle will be presented as a current conflict that because of its multilevel crisis can escalate into a violent one. All of this will be presented by explaining by analyzing the literature research along the chosen theoretical framework – under chapter 2 – for this research, the conflict, violence, and peace triangles developed by Galtung. The first triangle - the conflict one - will be used along all the main concepts: conflict prevention, humanitarianism, and Venezuela. The second triangle - the violence one - aims to understand further humanitarianism, its mandates and their relation to conflict prevention; as well as the violent situation Venezuela is suffering along the use of the basic needs approach – a theory developed by Galtung that can aid to determine whether a community lacks basic human needs or not. Last, the third triangle - the peace one - has been chosen to further understand the peace operations developed by the UN in which humanitarianism is involved. Additionally, the mentioned analysis related to humanitarian action, conflict prevention, and Venezuela has lead this research to implement a

methodology that would aid to find conclusive answers. Within the methodology chapter of this paper – chapter 3 – steps were taken, which guided these pages from beginning to end. Such methodology, included a qualitative research design – characterized by an inductive research approach – that aided in the analysis of the data collected. This data was formed by a theoretical research that discloses the work of scholars and practitioners related to conflict and peace studies, humanitarian action, intergovernmental

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13 As a consequence, to find an answer for the mentioned main objective three

sub-questions have been developed.

1. What is conflict prevention and how has it been successful when applied as a tool

in conflict situations?

2. Can humanitarian organizations because of their mandates play a role in conflict

prevention?

3. What is the violence triangle and how can it be understood in the context of

Venezuela?

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14 In continuation with the previous, chapter 4 is dedicated to introduce conflict prevention, its background, mechanisms, and scope; plus, its current and future accounts. Afterwards, chapter 5 is presented, where a closer look at humanitarianism is done. Followed in subsequent sections by its principles and activities, to its relation with the UN peace operations, and why it should keep evolving. Aside from the aforesaid in chapter 6 emerges the Venezuelan violence triangle. In here the current situation of Venezuela is presented; along democracy as an element that can generate conflict, and the presence of humanitarianism in this country. Additionally, the previous will be analyzed with the aid of two theories – the violence triangle and the basic needs approach. Such analysis is

presented in chapter 7. In here, each section is dedicated at answering sub-question 1, 2, and 3, ending with an answer for the main research question. On an ending manner, chapter 8 is dedicated to the conclusion of this research; which shows an overview of the entire paper, with its results, as well as reflections for the future. Withal, in the

development of this paper limitations were found. These relate to the lack of theory and praxis in the field of conflict prevention, as well as its relationship with humanitarian organizations and their mandates.

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2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The analysis of conflict prevention and the possible undertake of humanitarian action of this activity requires a dissection of its component parts, in order to understand its key elements and feasible factual or lack thereof connection. Such analysis requires a theory, which will aid to “make sense of evidence”5_{and whose results will not aim to produce}

something unique, but something that “has been shaped and reshaped by ideas”.6_Hence,

this constant development of concepts can lead to the improvement of a world that is in need of peace.

As a result, the chosen theoretical framework for this research is one developed by the renowned peace and conflict researcher Johan Galtung. His work, tangible in praxis especially since the 1980s, has been a guide for worldwide peace and conflict studies and one that has been of great influence within this research. The chosen theoretical

framework, is composed by three theories: the conflict, violence, and peace triangles all relevant for the conflict resolution field. They were not chosen per chance. As a result, an explanation for their choosing ensues these lines.

2.1. THE CONFLICT TRIANGLE

In the case of the conflict triangle, its eligibility was based on its relevance regarding the conflict analysis area; as well as its undeniable connection with culture – which Galtung

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16 regards as a permanent variable.7_{Taking a closer look at the conflict triangle theory, one}

can find through literature that without the input of Galtung conflict resolution and peace research would not be the same – according to Lawler. He was present at the “beginning of institutionalized peace research and remains a major contributor today”.8_{Withal, to}

achieve peace there needs to be an understanding of conflict; and conflict, as Kriesberg and Dayton mention, are natural, dynamic, and move through stages.9_{Nonetheless, to}

grasp them signifies the use of a well thought framework of analysis, and that framework within this research if the one developed by Galtung as already mentioned. Its conflict triangle can analyze escalatory and de-escalatory dynamics, as Demmers states.10_{As well}

as, giving “some cues as to how conflicts can be managed”,11_{taking into account that}

conflict can start and be stopped at any corner of the triangle – illustrated in the following figure.

Figure 9. Galtung’s conflict triangle12

Polity, pp.338.

8_{Lawler, P. (1995). A question of values. Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, pp.vii.}

9_{Kriesberg, L. and Dayton, B. (2012). Constructive conflicts. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, pp.6.} 10_{Demmers, J. (2012). Theories of violent conflict. London: Routledge, pp.58.}

11_{Galtung, J. (1978). Essays in peace research. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.489.}

Polity, pp.10.

Contradiction

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17 In this triangle Contradiction = C are the incompatibilities that lies in the social structure of the system,13_{while Attitude= A are the perceptions of the actors involved, such feelings in}

a racial conflict can signify prejudice.14_{In addition, one can also find Behavior = B which is}

the manifestation of the already mentioned attitude and contradiction;15_{if one is an actor}

involved in a violent conflict which has prejudice against a certain race (A) then one can develop discrimination (B) as a manifested behavior that can characterize such conflict. Therefore, the ABC triangle can be described as the ensuing.

o Attitude = A = perceptions.

o Behavior = B = manifestation of attitudes through negative or positive activities.

o Contradiction = C = structure.

Both A and C are embedded in the subconscious of the actors involved in a violent conflict: “there is a contradiction but no awareness of it”.16

13_{Demmers, J. (2012). Theories of violent conflict. London: Routledge, pp.60.} 14_{Galtung, J. (1978). Essays in peace research. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.489.} 15_Ibid.

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18 Manifested contradictions

Latent contradictions

Figure 10. Galtung’s conflict triangle.17

Since conflict can start at any corner, there is also the assumption that it can also be stopped at any corner – according to Galtung.18_{Thus, conflict can be stopped at A or B}

through conflict control, meaning the efforts made to regulate attitude and behavior; while conflict resolution tackling on C signifies “resolving the incompatibility underlying the conflict”.19_{Therefore, according to this and what we already have seen conflict}

resolution aims at resolving the conflict from its roots; while conflict control would mean tackling the conflict when it is already manifested – this can be better described in the following figure.

Polity, pp.10.

18_{Galtung, J. (1978). Essays in peace research. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.489.} 19_Ibid.

Behavior

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19 Conflict resolution

Conflict control

Figure 11. Galtung’s conflict triangle.20

Despite the previous hypothesis, Galtung also mentions that constraining only attitude and behavior can lead to a “freezing of the conflict”,21_{in which there would not be any}

kind of real solution of it. Thus, ideally the solution to the conflict would need an emphasis on contradiction = the structure of the conflict; in this way the core incompatibilities of the conflict would be tackled, while at the same time affecting positively the rest of the corners of the triangle.22_{The previous written, as well as, the lack of a conflict prevention}

theory has made the conflict triangle selected to analyze all the sub-questions, as well as

Polity, pp.10.

21_{Galtung, J. (1978). Essays in peace research. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.489.} 22_{Galtung, J. (1978). Essays in peace research. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.490.}

E.g.: UN or states sanctions, democratization, NGOs post-conflict programs.

Contradiction

Attitude Behavior

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20 the main research question. In continuation with the triangle theories developed by Galtung, the ensuing one focus on describing what is the violence triangle and its function regarding the understanding of violence and its origins.

2.2. THE VIOLENCE TRIANGLE

To study conflicts and the escalation of them possibly becoming a violent threat it is of paramount importance to understand violence per se, and all the structure beneath it. As mentioned before under the peace, violence and culture segment, to understand violence can signify being a step closer to achieve peace. Hence, to better grasp the elements involved with violence or lack thereof a specific case was chosen in order to be analyzed further within this research. Such case relates to Venezuela and the plausible fact that this country might be experiencing a humanitarian crisis. However, in order to achieve this, along the understanding of violence or absence of it within a given society, the violence triangle – illustrated at the bottom – was chosen in this research as an important step-stone in the conflict resolution studies and its jointure with the conflict and peace triangle developed by Galtung, as well. 23

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21 Figure 3. Galtung’s Violence triangle.24

This triangle aims to explain violence as an unavoidable result when certain needs are under threat; 25 _{namely, basic needs who will materialize within this section soon.}

Consequently, threats are also violence. Thus, to investigate the threats to these basic human needs might be being able to discern violence along with its insult to life.26

At the same time, this theory touches cultural violence as an aspect of culture that can be used to legitimize violence.27_{As seen before, culture is a paramount element that can}

influence each one of us, as well as the entire world. Thus, the study of the aspects of a culture that are violent – religion, ideology, language, art or sciences – is ideal to figure out a country’s situation.28_{Within the triangle – shown on the next page – appears three}

types of violence; namely, cultural, structural, and direct. Cultural violence makes direct and structural violence perceived as right, legitimized, or at least not taken amiss. In

Polity, pp.10.

25_Ibid.

26_{Galtung, J. (1996). Peace by peaceful means. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute, pp.197.} 27_{Galtung, J. (1990). Cultural Violence. Journal of Peace Research, 27(3), pp.1.}

28_{Galtung, J. (1996). Peace by peaceful means. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute, pp.196.}

Cultural violence

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22 addition, to achieve peace is necessary to reduce and avoid violence. Violence means hurting. Then it is assumed that the existence of something that can experience being harmed and being hurt, following the idea that something has life. Consequently, life is capable of suffering both psychological and physical violence.29

If there is a receiver of violence, as just mentioned, then there is a sender of it. A sender, is an actor who intends to apply violence, this is known as direct violence. On the one hand, direct violence comes from the social structure itself. On the other hand, structural violence is represented mainly by politics and economics, these two factors cause

repression and exploitation. Hence, structural violence = indirect violence.30

As a triangle, this previously mentioned violence framework can stand in any of its three corners. When the triangle is stands as in figure 3, the image shows cultural violence as the legitimizer of both direct and structural violence.31

Figure 4. Galtung’s violence triangle.32

29_{Galtung, J. (1996). Peace by peaceful means. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute, pp.2.} 30_Ibid.

31_{Ibid, pp.199.}

Polity, pp.10.

Cultural violence

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23 Standing the triangle as in figure 4, the image invoked is that of structural and cultural violence as sources of direct violence.

Figure 5. Galtung’s violence triangle.33

The triangle always remains one, but the image produced can vary if it is moved around, with all different images telling different stories.34_{Nonetheless, it is important to}

remember the following.

o Direct violence is an event.

o Structural violent is a process with ups and downs.

o Cultural violence is an invariant, a permanent remaining essentially the same for long periods.

33_Ibid.

34_{Galtung, J. (1996). Peace by peaceful means. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute, pp.199.}

Direct violence

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24 The three have symmetries. But, at the same they are all different in the time relation.35_In

addition to this, it is of relevance to mention that the violence triangle will be

implemented to aim to answer sub-questions number two and three, including the main research one. In view of the previous said, an introduction to the basic human needs is of necessity to further determine violence in a certain situation, due to its connection with the violence triangle

2.2.1. BASIC HUMAN NEEDS APPROACH

Abovementioned is stated that violence is a trespass of needs; specifically, basic human needs. This affirmation lies on the ensuing sentence.

"Needs= basic human needs, for needs are human and basic”.36

Consequently, Galtung developed four types of basic human needs – illustrated in the following figure. However, it is necessary to note that this list, as Galtung mentions in his article in The Basic Human Needs Approach, is by no means universal.37_{Thus, this}

interpretation might vary from one scholar to another one. Nonetheless, for Galtung the following list constituted what he called basic human needs.

35_{Galtung, J. (1996). Peace by peaceful means. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute, pp.199.} 36_{Galtung, J. (1979). The Basic Needs Approach. University of Oslo.}

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26 Figure 6. Galtung’s list of basic human needs.38

Consequently, for Galtung if there is a trespass of these basic human needs, then it signifies that violence is present. As a result, such needs will therefore aid in the

understanding of the current situation Venezuela is experiencing; as well as in the analysis of this country’s violence triangle. After glancing at what basic human needs signify for Galtung, emerges the last triangle: the peace one. A necessary theory that can aid to further understand the activities involved with humanitarianism and peace operations.

2.3. THE PEACE TRIANGLE

Three approaches to peace – written in 1976 – is the first article written by Galtung on

three types of peace: peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. This theory relates to the violence triangle, and to the approaching theoretical framework section. According

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27 to Ramsbotham, Miall, and Woodhouse, the “violence triangle relates to broader

strategies of the peace triangle”,39_{as illustrated in the following figure.}

Figure 8. Galtung’s violence and peace triangles.40

Peacemaking, within the previously displayed triangle, is depicted as equal to the cultural violence side in the violence triangle – as illustrated in figure 8. Withal, targeting violent or armed conflict through this corner of the triangle – the peacemaking one – would signify to “get rid of the source of tension, and the underlying conflict”,41_{which would lead to the}

thwarting of violence. Besides peacemaking, there is also the peacekeeping corner within the peace triangle. Known as the dissociative approach, peacekeeping calls in third parties

Polity, pp.10.

40_Ibid. 41_Ibid.

Structural violence Peacebuilding

Peacemaking

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28 to target the use of arms.42_{Hence, it is equivalent to direct violence within the violence}

triangle – presented in figure 8. The last, but not least, of the peace corners among the peace triangle is peacebuilding. Peacebuilding is illustrated as the peace structure where mechanisms encompassing peace actions should be implemented. If the structure is tackled, then they can “remove causes of wars and offer alternatives… in situations where wars might occur”.43_{Along these lines, this last mentioned peace operation would be}

comparable to structural violence – depicted in figure 8, and mentioned in detail under chapter 2.2. Withal, these three peace operations can be resumed, according to

Ramsbotham, Miall, and Woodhouse, as the ensuing sentences.44

o Peacemaking = aims to change the attitudes of the actors involved in a violent or armed conflict.

o Peacekeeping = aims to lower the levels of destructive behavior.

o Peacebuilding = aims to overcome the contradictions that lie at the root of the conflict.

The emergence of the peace triangle, as referred to previously, serves as a support for the understanding of the peace operations carried by the UN and non-UN organizations – especially humanitarian ones. Through the grasping of these concepts, interventionism emerges as a compelling humanitarian activity; whose aim is to aid to those most in need

42_{I Ramsbotham, O., Miall, H. and Woodhouse, T. (2011). Contemporary conflict resolution. Cambridge, UK:}

Polity, pp.282.

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29 – even if according to Anderson some these organizations can do more harm than

good.45_{Interventionism is not the only activity under the humanitarian umbrella; in fact,}

varied actions related to the distribution of materials and food, as well as to the delivery of financial and personnel support are also part of what humanitarians do during extreme man-made or natural emergency situations.

The abovementioned theories form a bigger framework, whose aim is to understand conflict, violence, and peace taking into account culture and the infrastructure that supports negatively and positively our societies. Withal, the election of Galtung’s conflict resolution theories is ultimately found to be of great aid due to the lack of conflict prevention theories. Hence, through the application of this framework the possible connection between humanitarianism, conflict prevention, and Venezuela can be further analyzed.

The upcoming analysis of this research, as already mentioned, will use Galtung’s conflict theory along the peace and violence triangles, in order to find a definite feasible answer to the probable link between humanitarianism and conflict prevention, plus the especial focus in Venezuela. In essence, such analysis will be based on the jointure between the literature found and the chosen theoretical framework. Withal, the aim is to understand conflict prevention and humanitarian action and its mandates to such an extent as to find a possible case of adoption or not, taking into consideration the Venezuelan violence triangle. As a result, the ensuing section will be based on the methodology that will be used to achieve the previous.

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3. METHODOLOGY

A methodology can aid a research to find conclusive results. Thus, in order to find these results a qualitative research design was chosen to develop this paper. Such type of research, as Creswell explains, is “exploratory, and it is used when the variables or theory are unknown”.46_{In this case, the relationship between the researched variables, namely}

humanitarian organizations, conflict prevention, and the Venezuelan violence triangle have little to none research found.

Currently, there is no evidence of a conflict prevention theory. Because of this fact, a theoretical lens was used – the conflict triangle, as well as related theories such as the violence and peace triangles, and the basic needs approach. Such lens has shaped since the beginning this research paper.

The aforesaid, is often linked with an inductive research approach. An approach that aids to build on existing theories. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to research the relationship between the mentioned variables by building on existing theories, instead of testing a theory per se – as in the case of the deductive research approach. This approach is better illustrated in the following figure.

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-Figure 1. The logic of inductive approach.47

Furthermore, a thorough literature review was done as a data collection procedure. This, was done by taking as a guide the conflict field of studies – from which derives the chosen theoretical framework of this thesis. However, it does not limit itself to the field of conflict studies; since, conflict prevention is taken as a broad term, in order to understand its development and current status. Nonetheless, within this research the conflict field of studies is a tangible guide. Additionally, there is a specific time horizon that aids in the analysis of the relationship of the variables. This encompasses the 1990’s and the present. Considering the previous, the fact that conflict prevention was taken as a broad

perspective relates to the finding of counted scholars and practitioners that relate to this

47_{Creswell, J. (2009). Research design. 3rd ed. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage Publications, pp.63.}

Researcher gathers information

Researcher asks open-ended questions of participants or records

Researcher analyzes data to form themes or categories

themes or categories Researcher looks for broad patterns, generalizations, or theories from

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4. FACT-FINDING: PREVENTION OF VIOLENT CONFLICTS

In the early 1990s, after the end of the Cold War, declarations filled with hope favoring the creation of a new world order started to float around the international arena.48_{To the}

disappointment of the global community the persisting patterns of international conflict kept existing; but, this time with an emphasis on intrastate violent conflicts.49_Rwanda50

and Yugoslavia51_{happened, accompanying more violent conflicts with similar significance.}

International stability has continued non-stop eroding while around the world people kept “tending to study how wars are caused and fought rather than how they are prevented”.52

Despite the varied views by some scholars and practitioners regarding peace and conflict, the development of concepts aiming to define conflict prevention emerged. Such concept has materialized to become one of the most significant challenges in the past two decades within the field of conflict and peace. Whether its applicability is only theoretical or

48_{Lund, M. (1996). Preventing violent conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, pp.}

ix.

49_{Uppsala Conflict Data Program. (2016). UCDP - Uppsala Conflict Data Program. [online] Available at:}

http://ucdp.uu.se/#/exploratory [Accessed 7 Jul. 2016].

50_{United Nations, (2008). Statute of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. Washington, DC: United}

Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law. This document makes a reference to the genocide, massive trespass of human rights, and consequently creation of the first international court of law established to prosecute high-ranking individuals responsible for these events in Rwanda, in 1994.

51_{United Nations, (2008). Statute for the International Criminal Court Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.}

United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law. This document makes a reference to the violations of international humanitarian law and human rights in the conflicts concerning the former Yugoslavia, and consequently establishment of an international tribunal to bring to justice the perpetrators of these trespasses in 1993.

52_{Lund, M. (1996). Preventing violent conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, pp.}

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34 practical, the fact is that there is still much to be understood in relation to this field.53_In

order to clarify further into what is understood by conflict prevention, it is necessary to take a glimpse at several definitions, in conjunction with its background, variations, linked elements, and current and future trends.

As such, the first sub-question ensues these lines, in order to take into account what is under analysis.

1. What is conflict prevention and has it been successful when applied as a tool to conflicts in escalation?

4.1. CONFLICT PREVENTION

One of the earlier and notable interpretations of what conflict prevention is, was made a couple of years after the Cold War by Max van der Stoel in 1994, the then Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) High Commissioner on National Minorities. He claimed that conflict prevention as a strategy must have a comprehensive approach that combines the various factors that engender tension.54_{In this way both superficial and root}

causes of conflict are tackled in an inclusive method that must have the support of the international community. For van der Stoel, “capital invested in conflict prevention is

53_{Ackermann, A. (2003). The Idea and Practice of Conflict Prevention. Journal of Peace Research, 40(3),}

pp.339.

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35 capital well spent”55_{due to the fact that “conflict prevention is much cheaper than}

peacekeeping or rebuilding societies after a violent conflict”.56

Another preceding attempt to define conflict prevention was made by prof. Stedman. In his article in foreign affairs, he claimed that conflict prevention encompasses “the

supposed roots of such conflicts: poverty, environmental degradation, overpopulation, resource competition, and lack of legitimate institutions”.57_{However, he does not shed}

light onto the formal study of this element aiming at preventing the eruption of violent conflicts. In fact, he argues that social sciences lack the ability to estimate the outbreak of a potential violent conflict.58_{Therefore there is little optimism to be expected out of these}

studies as well as on the appropriate responses to current violent conflicts, due to “the inability to predict the most important political changes”59_{in the past ten years by foreign}

policy experts.

Within the attempt at a chronological order – from the end of the Cold War to recent years – to present the development of conflict prevention as a definition by scholars and practitioners, the one made by the ex-Secretary General Boutros-Ghali is found. His report to the UN on the importance of conflict prevention and the solution to interstate and intrastate conflicts is one that throughout research materializes often. His solution to these types of conflict is an instrument called preventive diplomacy, one that “can only be

55_{The challenge of preventive diplomacy. (1994). Stockholm [Sweden]: Ministry for Foreign Affairs, pp.33.} 56_Ibid.

57_{Stedman, S. (1995). Alchemy for a New World Order: Overselling 'Preventive Diplomacy'. Foreign Affairs,}

74(3), pp.18.

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36 executed with the consent of the actors involved in the conflict”.60_{For Boutros-Ghali,}

preventive diplomacy as an element aiming at preventing the escalation of violent conflict must be applicable along other relevant instruments; namely, early warning, fact-finding, preventive deployment and when the situation requires a stronger measure, demilitarized zones.61_{Yet, another relevant actor that defines one concept as a form of conflict}

prevention is the Clingendael Institute – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. This institution’s concept does not touches superficial or root causes of conflicts; but, mentions conflicting goals between actors as an element that should be controlled in order “to avoid the development of hostilities”.62_{The concept conflict}

management is also mentioned by the Clingendael Institute, as a form of conflict

prevention. In their definition, conflict management contains or transforms disputes “in less conflictual forms of interaction or reduction”63_{and restricts “the means with which}

conflicts are pursued”.6465

In addition to the above mentioned concepts, Mitchell also attempts to demarcate conflict prevention as a definition. He introduces it as a call for conflict resolution scholars to aim

60_{Boutros-Ghali, B. (1995). An Agenda for Peace. 2nd ed. New York: United Nations, pp.12.} 61_{Ibid, pp.7.}

62_{Conflict prevention and early warning in the political practice of international organizations. (1996). The}

Hague: Netherlands Institute of International Relations "Clingendael", pp.3.

63_{Ibid, pp.4.} 64_Ibid.

65_{A clarification must be made in between the revelation of these concepts; one that deals with the concept}

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37 to prevent the occurrence of violence, a call that shows through evidence that conflict prevention must develop through an early intervention as opposed to a late

intervention.66_{The latter one rejected in favor of an early intervention in order to achieve}

a positive peace process.67_{Along these lines the Carnegie Commission on Preventing}

Deadly Conflict is also found, their idea of an early intervention is supported by incentives along sanctions, which are “a powerful means of influencing political behavior”.68_Such

elements illustrated as carrots and sticks, can be highly effective in preventing violent conflicts and defending human rights.69_{Besides these concepts, two more will be added.}

On one hand, in the book edited by Bonvicini on Preventing Violent Conflict,70_{Norkus aims}

to define conflict prevention as two separate terms that eventually join forces. For her, “the term prevention refers to an advance action against something possible”.71_Such

term tied to conflict enlightens further into describing the concept of conflict prevention. When joining the words prevention and conflict the outcome refers to “competitive or opposing action of incompatibles resulting in destructive behavior, which is perceived by other actors… as an undesirable situation, and therefore has to be prevented”.72

Furthermore, a relevant scholar emerges often among the researched literature,

Wallensteen, advisor to the renowned Uppsala Conflict Data program. For Wallensteen,

66_{Mitchell, C. (1995). Cutting Losses: Reflections on Appropriate Timing. Institute for Conflict Analysis and}

Resolution George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, (9), pp.i.

67_Ibid.

68_{Cortright, D. (1997). The price of peace. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, pp.267} 69_Ibid.

70_{Bonvicini, G. (1998). Preventing violent conflict. Baden-Baden: Nomos-Verl.-Ges, pp.19.} 71_Ibid.

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38 conflict prevention is a set of actions taken by third parties “to avoid the likely threat, use, or diffusion of armed force by primary parties in a political dispute”.73_{In comparison to}

Stedman, and his view of little optimism for the study of conflict prevention, Wallensteen confirms the difficulty of studying this field. Mainly, due to the challenge of identifying the cases for empirical analysis and the evaluation of the effects of preventive actions.74

However, not all is lost for the study of conflict prevention, through the location of disputes it is possible to predict those who have the potentiality for escalating into violence.75_{Further detail regarding escalation and de-escalation of conflicts will be}

portrayed later on.

Along with the previously mentioned Mitchell, appears Gurr with a similar thought on conflict prevention. He does not define conflict prevention per se; instead, he refers to the most effective prevention strategies of engagement by political and diplomatic means, which “are usually those that are applied early, before the onset of armed conflict”.76

Separately from Gurr’s line of thought Dress and Rosenblum-Kumar attempt to confirm that indeed conflict prevention as a set of “structures and framework of analysis,

cooperation, and implementation”77_{have extensively improved since the end of the Cold}

War. However, in their view the international community lacks the visualization of an

73_{Hampson, F. and Malone, D. (2002). From reaction to conflict prevention. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, pp.214.} 74_{Ibid, pp.215}

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39 entire system of conflict prevention, which very much needs the integration of several of its elements to create a coherent strategy against the flourishing of violent conflicts.78

Almost a decade later after the disclosure of van der Stoel’s conflict prevention definition, Gareis and Varwick concur with him that conflict prevention is a concept that involves various factors – as foreign, development, financial, environment, and security policies – that can induce to the development of disputes. For them, the prevention of a violent conflict not only must be a “cross-cutting task”79_{, it also must call upon the cooperation of}

various actors including IGOs, NGOs, social groups and, naturally, states.80

On a different manner to aim to define conflict prevention Lund is found. His research on conflict prevention, and more especially preventive diplomacy, is one that just as Boutros-Ghali and Wallensteen is frequently found in the literature related to this field. For him, conflict prevention should be applicable during peaceful times when violence can become a reality.81_{In this way, the prevention of conflict has an entrance and a stage, with the}

logical aid of “typical indicators of rising hostilities”.82

In light of the recognition of the cooperation among various and relevant actors that can either ‘do no harm’ or exacerbate a conflict, it is important to mention both the ex-Secretary General Kofi Annan and the current one, Ban Ki-moon. A decade in between their reports has passed; yet, the UN still maintains the firm position on keeping conflict

78_Ibid.

79_{Gareis, S. and Varwick, J. (2005). The United Nations. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave}

Macmillan, pp.118

80_Ibid.

81_{Bercovitch, J., Kremeniuk, V. and Zartman, I. (2009). The SAGE handbook of conflict resolution. Los}

Angeles: SAGE, pp.288.

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40 prevention part of their agenda. For Annan, “conflict prevention is one of the chief

obligations set forth in the Charter… to prevent armed conflicts we must then understand their origins and seek to make violence a less reasonable option”.83_{In a similar manner,}

Ki-moon, affirms this view, however, he also confirmed this year during the World

Humanitarian Summit (WHS) that “preventing and ending conflict… is not an effort where the UN’s political leadership or resources are presently focused”.84

Regardless of the proposals or lack thereof to improve conflict prevention, the fact remains as Wallensteen and Möller describe in their article, the definition of conflict prevention “suggests different things to different people and there is no agreed-upon meaning”.85_{Notwithstanding, the understanding of conflict prevention despite its diverse}

interpretations requires further research on how it became a tangible concept; hence, the background of it follows on the ensuing section.

4.2. BACKGROUND: FROM CONFLICT PREVENTION TO CONFLICT

RESOLUTION

On a similar condition as social sciences, conflict prevention has a background. As a straightforward concept, conflict prevention focuses on the thwarting of violent and armed conflict.86_{By these means, a glance to the background of conflict prevention is of}

83_{United Nations General Assembly, (2006). Progress report on the prevention of armed conflict, pp. 4-5.} 84_{United Nations, (2016). One humanity: shared responsibility. Report of the Secretary-General for the}

World Humanitarian Summit, pp.6

85_{Wallensteen, P. and Möller, F. (2003). Conflict Prevention: Methodology for Knowing the Unknown.}

Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University, Sweden, (7), pp.5.

86_{Term conflict prevention has been used and will continue to be in use during the rest of this research. In}

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41 paramount importance if one desires to understand how this field came to exist. Conflict prevention emerged as an outstanding sub-element branching from conflict resolution; a relevant field “associated with the promotion of peace”87_{that aims to solve conflicts. To}

grasp conflict resolution could mean being able to discern what conflict prevention is or is not. As a result, a closer look at conflict resolution is necessary.

A compelling field of studies emerged in the 1950s and 1960s with the work of significant scholars as Galtung, Burton, Deutsch, and Boulding in North America and Europe when the conflict during the Cold War “threatened human survival”.88_{At first, these researchers}

were not recognized seriously because of the difference this new field had with

international relations and the disparity of its analysis and practice with the traditional scholarly institutions and its practitioners. However, this new field attracted more intrigue and interest and around the 1980s several institutions aiming to study it were established. By then, conflict resolution was already being positively applicable in the resolution of conflicts, 89_{as in South Africa}90_{and in the Middle East.}91

interchangeably; however, if a preference has been made for violent conflict over armed one, it is due to the popularity in use of this term among the conflict prevention literature.

Polity, pp.37.

88_{Ibid, pp.4.} 89_Ibid.

90_{United Nations, (1989). Declaration on Apartheid and its Destructive Consequences in Southern Africa}

A/RES/S-16/1 -. United Nations General Assembly. This document refers to apartheid as a destructive situation affecting South Africa, followed by precise actions for negotiation and mediation between affected parties as resolutions for this conflict in 1989.

91_{United Nations, (1978). Report on the Secretary-General on the implementation of Security Council}

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42 Evidence regarding the importance of the resolution of conflicts, as in the already

mentioned case of conflict prevention, is found among UN documents. One of the most important documents is the one found in the UN Charter, in which can be found in Chapter VII Art.39 that “… all breach to peace, or act of aggression”92_{are to be}

determined by the Security Council in order to restore international peace. As a result, along the UN Charter there can also be found several scholars and practitioners whose research has been aimed at understanding conflict and conflict resolution. To start with, Galtung as one of the founding ‘fathers’ of the field of conflict resolution defined it on his Essays in Peace as a “process that leads the system to a state where… conflict is no longer present: the system must no longer have two or more incompatible goals”.93_{Furthermore, almost two decades later Norkus also aims to define}

conflict resolution as a set of activated actions at a stage when conflict occurs.94_These

actions could aim at stopping coercive and violent behavior, enhancing and enforcing cease-fires, or bringing actors involved to an agreement “through peaceful or forceful means”.95

On a different tone, Wallensteen aims to frame conflict resolution as a more peaceful rather than violent related activity. He claims that conflict resolution is applicable in those

92_{United Nations, (1945). United Nations Charter, chapter VII. art.39. Refers to the act of intervention by}

relevant actors as an act to find a resolution for a given violent conflict.

93_{Galtung, J. (1978). Peace and social structure. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.438. According to this mentioned}

definition conflict resolution is applicable during or after violent conflict has erupted, when the actors involved either seek a solution or are persuaded to do so. Galtung also offers ways in which conflict resolution could be applicable; namely, complete agreement among the parties regarding one conflicting goal or compromise, to “total annihilation or suppression of one of the parties”.

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43 situations “where the conflicting parties enter into an agreement”,96_{thus solving their}

conflicting goals and constraining all violent actions.

Along these lines, Mitchell also mentions the sans complication phrase “ripe for what?”97

Superficially this can be seen as already mentioned, a simple phrase; however,

underneath can be found that the ripeness for resolution is a complex action to achieve, one that “involves many tasks and functions carried out by a variety of third parties over a long period of time”.98_{Hence, the appropriate ripe time for a resolution, as Galtung}

mentions, is when a solution is found by accident or intent,99_{whether through means of}

violence or peace. In spite of the previous mentioned, conflict resolution will also be researched along two paramount concepts found in the literature; due to the fact that conflict resolution as a concept causes a link to understanding the nature of conflict, and by reason also to intervention. Two concepts that are necessary not only to grasp conflict resolution, but more importantly, conflict prevention. As a consequence, conflict ensues this paragraph.

96_{Wallensteen, P. (2012). Understanding conflict resolution. 3rd ed. London [u.a.]: Sage, pp.8 -10. In here,}

Wallensteen also makes a necessary clarification, “conflict resolution is not necessarily identical to peace”; but, at the same time it is “more than the limited definition of peace… and the absence of war”. In that event, it is a state were the actors involved in the conflict are ready to live and get along each other.

97_{Mitchell, C. (1995). Cutting Losses: Reflections on Appropriate Timing. Institute for Conflict Analysis and}

Resolution George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, (9), pp. 13.

98_Ibid.

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44

4.3. CONFLICT: A SOCIAL PROCESS OR A STATE OF WAR

The outstanding Uppsala Conflict DATA Program (UCDP) has mapped conflicts around the world, categorizing them under state-based, non-state, or armed ones – all being types of violent conflicts.100_{According to this, and figure 2, non-state conflicts have increased}

dramatically since 1990. It is important to mention that the following paragraphs will display concepts regarding conflict and its linked factors with origins more than a decade earlier to the end of the Cold War; due, to the contemporary emergence of conflict resolution as a field, thus, the commencement of conflict as a term defined under a more recent perspective.

Figure 2. Number of conflicts around the world.101

Above mentioned are the current patterns of conflict. Illustrating that violence has been on the rise the past decades. Withal, is it correct to assume that all conflicts are violent? Literature by scholars and practitioners confirm otherwise. In fact, one of the founding ‘fathers’ of conflict resolution as a field of studies – as Galtung, Boulding, or Burton – is

http://ucdp.uu.se/#/exploratory [Accessed 7 Jul. 2016].

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45 Deutsch. He claims that a conflict “exists whenever incompatible activities occur”.102_Yet,

another scholar that emerges often in relation to the conflict literature is Kriesberg. Among his contributions to the field of conflict studies is the firm assurance that conflict is a social relationship.103_{One that, as Deutsch mentions, arises when incompatible goals}

exist. In addition to this, Kriesberg also adds that this social relationship called conflict occurs between two or more parties who believe in their incompatible goals.104_In

conjunction with this term, the one made by Galtung is also encountered. Galtung on his

Essays in Peace confirms what Deutsch and Kriesberg already wrote a couple of years

before. “A system is said to be in conflict if the system has two or more incompatible goals”.105_{In this way, the elements two or more are found again; as well as, incompatible}

goals.106_{Besides the already mentioned, Elise Boulding – a prominent scholar as her}

husband Kenneth Boulding is – has defined conflict as a term that will never become obsolete. Considering that as she mentions “arises as it does form the basic individuality of human beings, and the uniqueness of individual perceptions, wants and needs that stem from the fact that no two human beings are alike”.107_{By reason of this, conflict is}

102_{Deutsch, M. (1973). The resolution of conflict. New Haven: Yale University Press, pp.10. According to this}

explanation conflicts can be either violent or peaceful, between two different religious groups, or even between sister and brother, or husband and wife.

103_{Kriesberg, L. (1973). The Sociology of Social conflicts. Englewoord Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, pp.17.} 104_{Kriesberg, L. (1973). The Sociology of Social conflicts. Englewoord Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, pp.17.} 105_{Galtung, J. (1978). Peace and social structure. Copenhagen: Ejlers, pp.438.}

106_{Along these lines the clarification on the use of the term conflict is necessary to be made. Throughout}

this research the term conflict will have a preference over the term social conflict or any other equivalent; on the ground that, among the literature conflict is used more, as opposed to social conflict. As a result, when you – the reader – encounter the term conflict, it will logically signify that it is the analogue to social conflict and not a reference to violence. Whenever the term conflict by itself is used in relation to violence it will be done in an explicit manner.

107_{Boulding, E., Brigagão, C. and Clements, K. (1991). Peace, culture, and society. Boulder: Westview Press,}

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46 also related to culture as a factor influencing our individuality. According to E. Boulding, culture is about patterns. Patterns that are behavioral, imagined and perceived, or structural and institutional.108_{As such, once they are discovered they can “liberate us}

from entrapment in them”.109_{Consequently, along this discovery injustice and oppression}

as factors, that influence peace and that can be rooted in culture, could be patterned under a new light in order to achieve peace. Additionally, Lederach also relates conflict to culture. In his view conflicts are “socially constructed cultural events”,110_{present in all}

relationships as well as in cultures. It emerges, according to him, through an interactive process based “on the search for and creation of a shared meaning”.111_{This last}

mentioned phrase can be linked to what Wallensteen proposed a conflict is. The search for a shared meaning connects itself to a search of common goals, which become

incompatible since two actors with different goals cannot attain the same resources. Thus, confirming Lederach’s view on conflict, Wallensteen defines this concept as a social event in which “a minimum of two actors strive to acquire at the same moment in time available set of scarce resources”.112_{In here, he does not only supports Lederach’s view, but also}

Galtung and Kriesberg’s, with the materialization of an element: a minimum of two actors. In spite of this, Wallensteen also mentions that solving conflicts is indeed a realistic fact.113

Hence, if anything might lead to war, and nothing will also certainly lead to war,114_as

108_{Ibid, pp.3} 109_Ibid.

110_{Lederach, J. (1995). Preparing for peace. Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, pp.9.} 111_Ibid.

112_{Wallensteen, P. (2012). Understanding conflict resolution. 3rd ed. London [u.a.]: Sage, pp.16.} 113_{Ibid, pp.13.}

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47 Holsti says, then finding a solution to violent conflicts can become less a chimera and more a possible fact if the study and praxis of how conflicts and its types escalate and become to exist improves. For this reason, the following sections include the types of conflicts that are currently found, continuing with the escalation and de-escalation of these social relationships.

4.4. EMERGENCE OF CONFLICTS: TYPES AND FACTORS

As seen before, conflicts are universal. They can also be, according to Kriesberg and Dayton, social relationships that are natural, inevitable, and essential aspects of life that alert societies about “underlying and latent tensions that exist”.115_{As such, these two}

scholars, go as far as to mention that conflicts are beneficial.116_{Whether conflicts are}

beneficial or not, they indeed have variations and types that can determine their emergence. Among the literature research, often the fact that conflicts are destructive and constructive materializes. Hence, these two concepts associated with conflict will be revised due to their importance to further understanding conflicts, its variations, and conflict prevention.

4.4.1. CONSTRUCTIVE

Deutsch acknowledges the fact that constructive conflicts should not be prevented. He reaffirms that they exist when the actors “involved are satisfied with the outcomes and

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48 feel that they gained”;117_{thus, conflicts should be made constructive, being the “overall}

aim to prevent this relationship from being destructive”.118_{Even more, almost forty years}

after Deutsch’s definition, Kriesberg and Dayton reaffirm that constructive forms of conflicts “maximize mutually satisfactory outcomes, hence, minimizing violence”. Consequently, constructive conflicts make the actors involved to have a level of

satisfaction that results from the emergence of this type of conflict. However, conflicts are never stagnant,119_{to such a degree that they can become destructive.}

4.4.2. DESTRUCTIVE

As in the case of constructive conflicts, destructive conflicts occur when there are actors involved. On one hand, Deutsch adds that these latter mentioned conflicts happen when the parties involved “are dissatisfied with the outcomes and feel they have lost”.120_{In this}

case these are the conflicts that, according to Deutsch, tend to escalate and enlarge.121_On

the other hand, Kriesberg and Dayton, define destructive conflicts in a similar matter as Deutsch does, however, they add that these type of social relationships induce the actors involved to “rely on the use of extreme violence to achieve goals”,122_{since one or both}

parties can see the conflict as a zero-sum term. In this way, destructive conflicts do not only lack positive benefits for the actors involved; but also, tend to be related to violence.

117_{Deutsch, M. (1973). The resolution of conflict. New Haven: Yale University Press, pp.17.} 118_Ibid.

119_{Kriesberg, L. and Dayton, B. (2012). Constructive conflicts. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, pp.7.} 120_{Deutsch, M. (1973). The resolution of conflict. New Haven: Yale University Press, pp.17.}

121_{Ibid, pp.351}

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49 Regardless of the destructive or constructive nature of conflicts the fact regarding their different types still stand. As such, they and some of their developers follow in the next paragraphs.

4.5. TYPES OF CONFLICT: DIVERSE VIEWS

In light of the already brought concepts of conflict along its destructiveness and

constructiveness, it is also found that there are a “great variety of social conflicts”.123_In

spite of this, they have similarities and differences, as well as various scholars attempting with precision to name its diverse types. Hence, the following lines will be based on the different types of conflicts believed to be found by relevant scholars; by no means the acknowledgement of these concepts, as the before described, along their authors do not signify that these concepts and scholars are the only ones to be found in the whole field of conflict as a study. However, due to time limits the priority has been made over some already known authors rather than others.

On one hand in the renowned book on Contemporary Conflict Resolution by Ramsbotham, Miall and Woodhouse there is a difference between types of conflict. These conflicts can

Humanitarian Organizations and the adoption of Conflict Prevention