CONTENTS
*Tropics
-ENSO [Neutral]
-MJO
*Extra-tropics
*Verification of AMJ & June 2014 Outlooks
*Drought
*Selected Weather/Climate Events
*Outlooks (June & JJA 2014 & MDO)
I. The Tropics
Ni Ni ño Region SST ño Region SST Departures (
Departures (
ooC) Recent C) Recent Evolution
Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC
Global SST Departures (
Global SST Departures (
ooC) During the Last Four Weeks C) During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, above-average equatorial SSTs were observed across the Pacific and near Indonesia.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks Weeks
During the last four weeks, changes in equatorial SST anomalies were negative near the International Date Line and positive in small areas of the eastern Pacific.
Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Average Temperature Anomalies Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies increased during June, August, and in October 2013. From January - March 2014, temperature anomalies strongly increased. Since April 2014, the positive anomalies have weakened and are now near zero.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific Pacific
Most recent pentad analysis
Positive subsurface anomalies are evident near the surface (<100m) across most of the Pacific basin, while negative anomalies have strengthened in the central and east-central Pacific at depth.
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: July 10 2014 Updated: July 10 2014
The chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer
and reaches near 80% during the fall and winter.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model 3.4 SST Model
Outlook Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 June 2014).
Most models favor El Niño
(greater or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop in the next several months and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2014-15.
* Note: These statements are updated once a month in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Summary Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Tropical rainfall is slightly enhanced over Indonesia and near the International Date Line.
Chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and
reaches 80% during the fall and winter.*
The mythology of MJO
The mythology of MJO
Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean
The ensemble GFS forecast indicates a strengthening signal with eastward
propagation of the MJO RMM Index over the Maritime Continent during the next week. Most ensemble members weaken the signal considerably during Week-2.
II. The Extra-Tropics
III. Verification of AMJ & June 2014
Outlooks
Streamflow/Soil Moisture
USGS Streamflow
IV. Drought
DROUGHT MONITOR
June 3
V. Selected Weather/Climate Events
June 18 Twin EF-4 tornadoes destroyed ¾ of Pilger NE.
(2 fatalities)
Historic flooding in Mid-West
Sioux City IA. Had its wettest month ever in its 1613 months of record keeping
June 2014 16.65 inches
Previous record: 11.78 inches May 1903
May 2014 Severe weather reports
June 2014 Severe Weather Reports
Indian Monsoon
by Rich Tinker
Climate Change
Ten Hottest Years on Record, 1880-2013
Year Average Global Temperature (Degrees F) ________________________________________
2010 58.41 2011 58.39 2007 58.33 2008 58.32 2002 58.32 2003 58.30 2013 58.30
• 58.28 2010 58.28 2011 58.24
Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute from National Aeronautics and Space Admin.Goddard Institute for Space Studies
