CONTENTS
*Tropics
-ENSO [Neutral]
-MJO
*Extra-tropics
*Verification of ASO & October 2014 Outlooks
*Drought
*Selected Weather/Climate Events
*Outlooks (November & NDJ 2014-15 & MDO)
I. The Tropics
NiNiño Region SST ño Region SST Departures (
Departures (ooC) Recent C) Recent Evolution
Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC
Global SST Departures (
Global SST Departures (ooC) During the Last Four WeeksC) During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and western Indian Ocean and below-average north of Australia (the Maritime Continent).
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four Weeks Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, positive changes in equatorial SST anomalies are evident in small regions of the central and eastern Pacific.
Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies strongly increased during January - March 2014.
During April-July 2014, the positive anomalies decreased to near zero. Temperature anomalies increased between late July and late August, before leveling off.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific Pacific
Most recent pentad analysis
Recently, positive subsurface anomalies in the central Pacific appear to be expanding eastward.
Since early September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have stretched across most of the equatorial Pacific.
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 9 October 2014 Updated: 9 October 2014
The chance of El Niño is near 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook 3.4 SST Model Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 October 2014).
Most models favor El Niño
(greater than or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop during October-
December 2014 and persist through Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
* Note: These statements are updated once a month in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Summary Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*
The mythology of MJO
The mythology of MJO
Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean
The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no robust MJO activity during the upcoming week, with a potential emerging signal over the Western Hemisphere and Africa during Week-2.
II. The Extra-Tropics
III. Verification of ASO & October 2014
Outlooks
Temperature Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 25.61 All forecasts: 13.58
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 53.02
Precipitation Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 33.77 All forecasts: 11.21
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 33.19
Temperature Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 39.75 All forecasts: 20.91
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 52.59
Temperature Revised Forecast Heidke Skill Scores :
Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 51.09 All forecasts: 30.39
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 59.48
Precipitation Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: -23.75 All forecasts: -8.19
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 34.48 Precipitation Revised Forecast Heidke Skill
Scores :
Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 7.83 All forecasts: 2.80
% coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 35.78
Streamflow/Soil Moisture
USGS Streamflow
IV. Drought
DROUGHT MONITOR
V. Selected Weather/Climate Events
Oct 2014 Severe weather reports
Climate Change
Ten Hottest Years on Record, 1880-2013
Year Average Global Temperature (Degrees F) ________________________________________
2010 58.41 2011 58.39 2007 58.33 2008 58.32 2002 58.32 2003 58.30 2013 58.30 2014 58.28 2009 58.28 2012 58.24
Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute from National Aeronautics and Space Admin.Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Climate Change (more fun facts)
Oct 2014 tied with Oct 2012 as Warmest Oct on Satellite Record
38th consecutive Oct above normal 355st consecutive months with global
temperatures above 20th Century Average Last Below Average Oct occurred in 1976 Last Below Average month: Feb 1985
Last Below Average Year: 1976 Jan-Oct 2014 warmest on record
VI. Outlooks for Nov & NDJ 2014-15 &
MDO
D’OH! DD’OH!!!!
