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The influence of terrorist attacks on political orientation of European
citizens
A study into the relation between terrorist attacks and political orientation of populations in European countries and the role of the media in this relation.
Thesis
Student: Glenn Damen (s1540467) Supervisor: Dr. P.G.M. Aarten
Leiden University - Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs MSc Crisis and Security Management
2 Index Abstract 1. Introduction 1.2 Research question 1.3 Relevance 1.4 Reading guide 2. Theoretical framework
2.1 Political orientation and introduction Colombia model 2.2 External influences
2.3 The unifying function of "fear"
2.4 Media influences on the growth of extreme-right 2.5 The media effects theory
2.6 Feeling safe and the role of terrorism 2.7 Conceptual model
2.7.2 Control variables 2.8 Hypotheses
3. Methodology 3.1 Methods
3.1.2 European social survey 3.1.3 Global terrorism database 3.2 Case selection 3.3 Data analyses 3.4 Dependent variable 3.5 Independent variables 3.6 Control variables 3.7 Procedure 4. Analyse
4.1 Insight into the used dataset 4.2 The trend in Europe
4.2.2 Comparison trends in geographical regions 4.3 Variance of political orientation based on region
4.4 The relationship between political orientation and terrorism 4.5 Coherence of the research factors
3 5. Conclusion and discussion
5.1.2 Hypothesis 1 5.1.3 Hypothesis 2 5.1.4 Hypothesis 3 5.1.5 Research question 5.2 Limitations 5.3 Recommendations
4 This thesis deals with the relationship between political orientation and terrorism within Europe. With this thesis I have combined two topics that interest me very much. This year in which I followed the master Crisis and Security Management has flown by. The same applies to the period in which I was allowed to work on my thesis. It must be a good sign and a confirmation that I did choose the right master.
For writing my thesis, I particularly want to express my gratitude to my supervisor Dr. P.G.M. Aarten. Thanks for the personal support and the positivity at all times, this helped me a lot.
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Abstract
This thesis looked into the relationship between terrorism and political orientation. Within this research, the role of the media concerning this relation is also taken into account. The independent variables of terrorism and media are used to investigate whether these variables contribute to explaining the political views of populations. European country populations are the case of this study. This led to the following research question: To what extent do terrorist attacks affect the political orientation of the citizens of Europe and how can this be explained by the TV news media influences? On the basis of this research question, the amount of terrorist attacks and the attention to media among the populations are discussed in greater depth as possible explanatory factors for political orientation of the European citizens. Concerning political orientation, the Columbia School model has been used to further analyse the explanatory factors regarding political orientation. The theories and strategies of terrorism and media have been further specified with the help of several theories. According to conducted research, there is a relationship between the presence of terrorist attacks and the voting behaviour of citizens in Israel (Berrebi & Klor, 2006). This research conducted in Israel shows that at a higher intensity of terrorism, more people support right-wing political parties during the elections. The media also seems to have a mediating role in choosing political preference according to the theory (Xu & Peterson, 2017). This role and influences are further explained with the help of media effects theories. Based on the literature, three hypotheses have been drawn up that will be analysed using a trend analysis, correlation analysis and multiple regression analyses. The data for analysing these hypotheses comes from the datasets of the European social survey (ESS) and the Global terrorism database (GTD). The results show an existing coherence between terrorist attacks and political orientation. The fear of terrorism appears to have a better explanation factor than the actual amount of victims to terrorism. Nevertheless, it cannot be confirmed that terrorist attacks have a direct relationship with the growth of extreme right-wing political parties. On the other hand, there is a positive coherence between the media and political orientation. This implies that when a population spend more time watching the news and political affairs (the measured unit which representing the media in this study), the support for right-wing political parties will increase.
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1. Introduction
The new millennium has brought many changes in the area of security. The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center on 11 September 2001 are seen by many researchers as a turning point in which counter-terrorism came first on the political agenda in many countries (De Graaf, 2010). National governments pump billions in defence, police or other national organizations that aim to protect the national security and thereby their citizens (De Graaf, 2010). With this policy, national governments try to regain the trust of citizens (Franko Aas, 2007). However, this process of gaining confidence among citizens seems to be difficult. This is reflected in shift of the political orientation within populations. In the EU there has been a development in the political field in recent years, namely the strong rise of right-wing nationalist parties also known as a form of protest parties (Brug & Fennema, 2003). In many countries within the EU there is a huge increase in support for these political parties. From this it can be deduced that a political shift is taking place, in which the traditional middle is exchanged for right (nationalist) oriented parties. The Front National in France, for example, has won much popularity in the recent years under the leadership of Marine Le Pen. Geert Wilders' PVV is a serious party in the Netherlands for a longer period of time and in Belgium the right nationalists of the NV-A party are already the largest in the country. A newspaper article mentioned that even where far-right in Germany was unthinkable in years, new right-wing protest movements have emerged that are against Angela Merkel's immigration policy (Raalte, 2016). Because of the great interests and attention that is being paid to this subject, there is also a growing interest in social sciences about the influences on the political attitude of citizens, for example in the form of voting behaviour. A research into the political opinions of the people (in the way of voting behaviour) was conducted in Israel and Palestine on the basis of terrorist attacks. This is an empirical study carried out by Berrebi and Klor (2006) which shows that there is a significant correlation between the amount of terrorist attacks within the specific time period and the voting behaviour of the citizens. In periods of increasing terrorist threats, support for right-wing political parties also increased. In relatively quiet periods, the opposite was visible which meant that the support for left-wing orientated political parties rises on the basis of the data used (Berrebi & Klor, 2006). An important discovery that exposes the political influences that terrorism brings. To this must be added, that this study was conducted among citizens of countries who live under imminent circumstances of danger for a longer period of time. However, terrorists globally have the same method whereby the research does not lose its value outside of Israel. The strategy of terrorists is not to make as many victims as possible, the approach is to intimidate as many people as possible often with the overarching goal of concessions on political or territory issues (Kydd &
7 Walter, 2006). Terrorism has an important role in this study where the effect of terrorist attacks within European countries is researched. Where the literature discusses the assumptions concerning the concept of terrorism, the definition of Kydd & Walter (2006) for terrorism is adopted within this study. It describes terrorism as violence and intimidation by non-state actors aimed at civilians. These terrorist attacks are often carried out for political purposes and, according to Kydd & Walter (2006), terrorism often brings the desired effect for the executors. This political impact of security related items such as the fear of a terrorist attack on the public is great, something what is generally known by politicians (Pedahzur, 2009). And according to Pedahzur (2009), the sensitivity on this subject is welcomed with open arms by politicians to win the trust of and ultimately votes of the people.According to a newspaper article of Dutch journalist Joris Luyendijk (2017), media play an essential role in these goals of the terrorist, since they contribute to the spread of fear with the news of the attacks. Evan Williams (2017), one of the founders of Twitter, stated in the same article that social media platforms are nowadays used as instruments by enemies of democracy. A phenomenon that is confirmed in the literature. Rosling (2018) states that the media responds to the fears of their readers. In addition, various media platforms can also simply earn good money with news about terrorist attacks because it attracts the attention of the citizen (Rosling, 2018). As a result, The media like to write / make news about terrorism and so terrorism gets more attention than the average news item. Not only the media but also some politicians make use of terrorist attacks by addressing sensitive issues with the aim of gathering the attention of the citizen (Pedahzur, 2009). Possibly terrorism and the media are an important factor in explaining the shifts in political orientation within European countries. The study by Berrebi and Klor (2006) in Israel was conducted through interviews with residents entitled to vote. This research will be carried out on a larger scale than the research carried out in Israel, namely: Europe. For this reason, existing datasets of European Social Survey are used based on tens of thousands of people per survey period. This allows a data set to be drawn up that represents Europe in the period from 2002 to 2016. This means that the values which are analysed, represent an average over the population within a country and specific year. Ultimately, this study attempts to create more insight into the potential effects of terrorist attacks on the political orientation of the populations of Europeans countries. The political orientation is further analysed in this study according to the Columbia School based on the works of The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) and Voting (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954). However, the emphasis on the work of the Columbia School's approach has changed within this study. For example, the opinion and perception of populations will play a more important role in an attempt to explain
8 the political orientation and thus potential voting behaviour. On the basis of a created dataset and existing literature, the relationships between political orientation, terrorism and the media will be further analysed. For the results there is made use of trend analyses, ANOVA tests, univariate - and multiple regressions. The analysis also examines whether there are differences within Europe with regard to a geographical subdivision. This study attempts to clarify the relationships between terrorism and news media and tries to create a better understanding of the possible impacts on political orientation of European citizens.
1.2 Research question
In brief, it can be said that there is a shift in the increasing political support for extreme right politicians among citizens within several countries in Europe (Brug & Fennema, 2003). Due to the growth of the supporters of these political parties, these parties are able to grow considerably during elections. Especially in the western part of Europe there is an increase of support for certain protest parties. This research should answer the question of whether terrorism and media can offer the same explanation level regarding the political orientation of the citizens as from the research conducted in Israel. This leads to the following research question: To what extent do terrorist attacks affect the political orientation of the citizens of Europe and how can this be explained by the TV news media influences?
1.3 Relevance
Security related items such as terrorism are currently much discussed subjects within the literature (De Graaf, 2010). With this research there is contributed to the discussion within this topic by combining multiple theories and variables in the analyses. Because of this the potential relationship between political orientation and terrorism will be analysed from new perspectives. In this research the important role of TV news media in contemporary politics is recognized and explicitly included in the analysis. In addition, explanatory factors from various studies are combined in this study in the form of control variables. The doctrine of the Columbia School from Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) and Berelson et al. (1954) is used for selecting the variables in the dataset. This traditional theory for explaining voting behaviour has never before been used for analysing the relation between political orientation and terrorism. This research makes it possible to examine on a national scale whether terrorism is related to the political orientation of populations of countries within Europe. The presence of the media in this process will be included in the analysis. New results are sought with the use of existing theories and data, which will be described in the theoretical framework and methodology. The results of this research
9 can create new insights which possibly evoke a new debate in the literature about dealing with terrorism both within politics and the media (reporting of the terrorist attacks) which makes this research scientifically relevant. Where scientific research within this relationship is primarily conducted by interviews and so relatively small scaled, this research looks at developments of a continent (Europe) by using existing data sets. As a result, the coherence between the variables is looked at from a new point of view, which makes the research scientifically relevant. The fact that governments respond in many cases to terrorism such as terrorist organizations would like to, emphasizes the importance for contemporary research into and around this type of violence. The attack on the United States 9/11 is often shown as an example (Kydd & Walter, 2006). The importance of information about this subject makes this research scientifically relevant.
The social relevance relates to the effectiveness of policy and investments regarding security. This information can offer new insights that can support the wishes of citizens and political leaders. The primary social relevance of this research is to provide the necessary insights into the relationships between terrorism and political orientation and the media. This information may in the future provide support in dealing with terrorism. By pointing to existing possible correlations, both politicians and the media can in the future respond better to a terrorist attack in order to prevent possible negative consequences for the party in question. Media may use this information to prepare new guidelines for dealing with news about terrorism in a new way. The new information from this study will raise awareness of the influence that media have been able to increase. The media can use this background information to make more considered choices on the subject of terrorism. In addition, the awareness of the presence of the relations for the electorate can also increase, so that this target group can also make a more considered choice about their political orientation. In addition, the importance of studying terrorism has already been emphasized with regard to the scientific relevance. The same argument can be placed with the social relevance of this research. Information regarding terrorism and the associated consequences may, among other things, make government agencies and other organizations more aware of the outcomes of potential actions within this subject in the future. This research will in particular provide insights into the reactions towards terrorism from the people within a country.
10 1.4 Reading guide
Chapter 1 will be followed by the theoretical framework, in which the most important concepts (political orientation, terrorism and media) will form the guideline for this chapter. Theories about political orientation and voting behaviour will be described in this chapter, the Columbia school is used as a basic model for explaining political orientation. In addition, several theories are described that deal with the impact of terrorism and the influences of the media (media effects theory). The relationship and influences of terrorism on political orientation of citizens was introduced in this study by Berrebi and Klor (2006). The theoretical framework is followed up by the methodology. The used variables for the data for this thesis will be further explained in this chapter. In addition, this chapter also discusses the methods and procedure of the research. Subsequently, the analysis of the results of the datasets used will be dealt with in detail in Chapter 4. Various tables and graphs will be shown in the analysis, with striking results being explained in more detail. The thesis will end with a discussion in chapter 5. A conclusion will be drawn to give an answer to the research question, which will be followed up with any potential recommendations.
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2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 Political orientation and introduction Colombia model
In a growing part of Europe, the concerns of security policies in relation to terrorism are increasing (Broeders & Hampshire, 2013). Meanwhile the increasing concerns for these security policies, people put question marks more often on much debated topics as the power of the EU and immigration policy. In the meantime election support for extreme right-wing political parties fluctuates sharply over the years (Boomgaarden & Vliegenthart, 2007). This research examines possible fluctuations within the political orientation of populations within Europe. In the discussion about political orientation, the terms liberal versus conservative or left-wing versus right-wing are often used to distinguish political movements (Cavazza & Mucchi-Faina, 2008). Research into the political orientations of populations within countries can therefore be seen as research into the left - versus right - wing attitude of the people within the studied period. Within the dichotomy of left and right politics, left-wing voters (liberals) are typically described as people striving for social change and equality. In contrast, right-wing supporters (conservatives) are described as groups that are less open for changes (Carney, Jost, Gosling & Potter, 2008). According to Carney et al. (2008), people differ in their political attitudes, a fact that applies globally. Research into political orientation can therefore be understood as one's left versus right-wing attitude. Previously conducted studies within this domain have confirmed the existence of some important studying explanatory factors to better understand the political attitude (Zetter & Hilbig, 2009). Explaining this political choice behaviour and the political shifts among voters is a complex matter. In this research into the possible explanations for this political shift, a strong model is therefore needed that provides support for explaining political orientation. For this, a classic model of voting and political behaviour from the Columbia school from Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) and Berelson et al. (1954) is chosen. The theory from the Columbia school has a psychological origin and offers explanations from the point of view of the voter. By choosing for the the Columbia school as a basic model for explaining political orientation, two sources are used in this thesis, The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) and Voting (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954). The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) is a study into supporters of the two main political parties in the US. Within this group of participants, changes or shifts in support for a particular political party were further examined. With this research, Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) are the founders of the theoretical model that is now known as the Columbia school.
12 2.2 External influences
Within the theory of the Columbia school, there are four predetermined variables used in explaining the voting behaviour of the people. All of thesevariables do have influences on the political orientation of a person.The first variable is perception, which in the study of Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) refers to the interpretation and assessment of all forms of information. The second variable is opinion. Respondents' opinions on, for example, current policy and other cases presented were also used as a variable to explain electoral vote choices. Attitude and identification are the third and fourth (and therefore last) explanatory variables from the Columbia school. These variables relate in particular to external political and social events. Think of issues related to economics, education and health, etc. Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) hypothesized that voting behaviour is an individual act that can be explained by character traits and the possible opening of information from the media. The results of the first study by Lazarsfeld et al. (1944), however, contradict this predetermined hypothesis. The results show that political orientation can in particular be explained by the social status of a person and so identification is an important concept for this school. So according to the Columbia school model, opinion and perception are two of the four fundamental variables for research into political orientation, who have influence on the political preferences of the voter. The focus while analysing the relation between terrorism and political orientation will be on these two categories. For this research predetermined satisfaction variables (focused on political topics) are used to make the opinion and perception of the people quantifiable for the analysis.
Figure 1: The focus point within this research shifts in proportion to the Columbia school to more attention for the variables concerning opinion and perception.
In addition, the theory of the Columbia school suggests minimal influence from the media regarding the act of voting. According to Lazarsfeld et al. (1944), the majority of voters fall back to their original political support during elections. The fall back to the original party preferences is largely explained by the social background of the voter. When people have questions about political topics, they use their social relationships to seek advice. In this way
13 the voter receives largely information within his / her own social group. This psychological phenomenon is known as reactivation (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954). From this it can be stated that the number of voters that can be influenced in the short term around an election for a change in political support is limited. In addition, the Columbia School experienced a certain group identification. If one feels strongly associated with a particular group in their social environment, they will in many cases be inclined to offer their political support to a party that represents this social group. In this way the voter tries to be part of the group with which he / she feels most connected, whereby this influences the political orientation of the individual. The same process is visible in the opposite direction. Respondents who are hostile towards certain religious or ethnic minority groups, for example, were more likely to regard them as "those" who belong to the other party (Berelson, et al. 1954). So it can be stated that group identification has a reinforcing effect on political orientation. This means that the closer a voter feels to a certain group, the more likely they are to vote for the political party that represents this group (Berelson, et al. 1954). The results of the research show that of the pre-established variables from the Columbia School theory, in particular attitude and identification play a major role in explaining voting behaviour. A possible reason for this result is the lack of influence of media campaigns on the average voter. Due to the lack of significant changes, the Columbia School found no clear distinction in the analysis of media influences (Berelson, et al. 1954). According to Berelson, et al. (1954) the mass media in particular strengthened the already existing biases among voters and not change their political ideas. This can be explained by selective media consumption, one sees or reads what one wants to see or read.
2.3 The unifying function of "fear"
The Columbia school is a classical and valued theory of explaining voting and political behaviour of the people. In spite of the existing appreciation for the model, there are nowadays more researchers who believe that the contemporary media have a major role in the political preference of the population (Xu & Peterson, 2017). This has led to new debates in the literature about the actual role and influences of the media regarding voting behavior (Pinkleton, Austin & Fortman, 1998). According to Pinkleton et al. (1998), media variables have a positive influence on the participation of voting for the political elections. It must be acknowledged that the contemporary media has a completely different approach and practice than 65-75 years ago, but it can be stated that there is a relation between media and political behaviour of people. And despite an appropriate relationship between the two variables, this study does not address the
14 possibility of predicting between left and right. The rise of globalization and the role of (social) media in this, causes questions about the results of the Columbia School. In this study the basic model of the Columbia school is used, but more attention is given to the categories perception and opinion. Where the current of the Columbia school are more or less dominated by the social identification and attitude of the voters (variables such as religion, residence and socio economic status).
According to Rosling (2018) the media in general like to respond to a person's fear instinct. News that generates fear is a very easy way to attract attention (Rosling, 2018). Rosling (2018) also states that if journalists do not want to lose their jobs, they must fight for the reader's attention. Partly due to the aforementioned development of globalization and the rise of social media, there is currently a very negative worldview among populations. According to Rosling (2018), the idea among citizens is that dangers are everywhere in the world. However, the opposite is true, since the world has never been as safe and not as violent as it is today (Rosling, 2018). It is clear in this that it is precisely the perception of the world and the opinion concerning sensitive subjects of people that seem to be strongly influenced by the media. The link between these explanatory factors of political orientaion and the media seems to be the emotion of fear in this context. According to Pinkleton et al. (1998), the relationship between voting behaviour, political discontent (possibly fuelled by fear) and the use of media is based on complex relationships between the variables. Xu and Peterson (2017) have studied the mediating role of the media in the emergence of differences in political orientation. People are often inclined to select media based on their own attitudes and beliefs. According to Xu and Peterson (2017), media contributes therefore to creating differences in political orientation among people. This research further examines the complex relationships between these variables at national level.
When one acts out of fear, a person often does not act rationally. Which directly affect the political preference of a population. The concern and fear of a possible terrorist attack varies significantly among populations around the world (Council on Foreign Relations, 2009). According to a 2009 study (CFR), this fear is the greatest in regions where people have significantly suffered the most from terrorist attacks. The highest levels of concerns are measured in the Middle East, South Asia and Western Europe. In the area of terror, Western Europe has a different history in recent years than the rest of the European countries. As a result, the highest demonstrable amount of fear about a potential terrorist attack can be measured in the Western part of Europe (Council on Foreign Relations, 2009). In this research, the variable terrorism is expressed in the number of terrorist attacks. It can therefore be assumed that this is inherently correlated with the fear of terrorism among the population of a country. An earlier
15 research in the middle east made it clear that there is a connection between terror and voting behaviour. Berrebi and Klor carried out an empirical study (2006) into the situation in Israel and Palestine. The study showed a significant correlation between the amount of attacks and the voting behaviour of the people (Berrebi & Klor, 2006). It became clear that in periods when the threat of terrorism was higher, for example by a higher number or terrorism attacks, the support for right-wing politicians is clearly higher. On the other hand the support, during a relatively quiet period with regard to terror, for left-wing politicians was higher (Berrebi & Klor, 2006). However, it is difficult to take this movement from this empirical analysis when the EU Member States form the case for this research. The population of Israel and Palestine have for years been plagued by terror with a likely higher frequency compared to European territory. In addition, policies in the area of security often have a strong national approach (Pedahzur, 2009). Countries have a strong independent attitude within the area of security (Graeger, 1996) which means that political preferences can vary considerably from country to country. In a study conducted by Jacobson and Bar-Tal (1995), the direct different forms of impact of personal and national threat levels on political beliefs were further researched. Like the research of Berrebi & Klor (2006), this research was also conducted in Israel and is therefore linked to other circumstances than countries within the European Union. However, it is possible to learn of the reaction and human behaviour of the respondents within this research. For example, it is stated in this study that uncertainty about the economic level or health cannot induce the same level of emotion of concern as becoming a victim of terrorism (Jacobson & Bar-Tal, 1995). They conclude from this that the presence of a link between terrorism and political preference cannot be excluded. This research should provide more insight into a possible correlation between political orientation and terrorism in Europe.
2.4 Media influences on the growth of extreme-right
Originally, economic and migration-related factors are used in the literature to explain the growing support for the relevant extreme right-wing political parties. The research frequently refers to extreme right-wing political parties, or populist right-wing political parties. In this context, these parties can differ greatly from each other. However, according to Fennema (1997), the parties are similar in their attack on the government's migration policy. Besides this they often act in the form of a protest party. For this reason, migration-related factors are inextricably linked in this research into the rise of these political parties. Because of the existing link between immigration and political orientation for extreme right-wing political parties (Boomgaarden & Vliegenthart, 2007) and this research into the influence of terrorism in this relation, a deliberate
16 choice has been made for these overarching terms about these political parties. However, in addition to economic and migration, the role of the media in this political shift is increasingly mentioned as a potentially influential factor, a possible link that has created much debate today (Pinkleton, Austin & Fortman, 1998). Where previously hardly any attention was paid to this relationship in the literature (Boomgaarden, & Vliegenthart, 2007). The focus on this unknown degree of influence of media has been strengthened over the years. A study by Stewart, Mazzoleni & Horsfield (2003) shows that some media factors play an essential role in the rise and development of extreme right-wing political parties. The proven relationship of this study could possibly be further explained by a report by Lubbers et al. (1998) in which it is concluded that news reports about ethnic minorities are often linked to concepts of a negative charge. Executed research shows significant results which demonstrated that the emphasis on immigration issues from national newspapers has an increasing impact on support for anti-immigrant parties. So with an increase in news reports on immigration related topics, political support for extreme right-wing political parti es (anti-immigrant oriented) will also increase (Boomgaarden, & Vliegenthart, 2007). Because the reporting of immigration is mainly carried out in a negative way, it can logically be assumed that the subject of immigration creates unrest and concern among the population (Lubbers, Scheepers & Wester, 1998). Whit this statement it cannot be concluded, when spoken with a positive tone in the media around immigrants, the opposite will be achieved. This outlined problem is reflected in the continuous criticism of scholars who blame the use of the media for being too short on argumentations and of the making of sketchy news (Pinkleton, Austin & Fortman, 1998). According to Boomgaarden & Vliegenthart (2007), the various news platforms intentionally or unintentionally create an information environment that increases support for relevant political parties. High-profile topics such as the immigration problem are used by populist parties for a certain form of attention. The concentration of the media on this kind of topics has roughly the same reason.
2.5 The media effects theory
The media effects theories examine the additional effects and behavioural changes of media on users. Valkenburg, Peter & Walther (2016) describe media effects as the intentional and non-intentional changes within the person as a result of media use. With changes is meant the short or long term change of reasoning, beliefs, emotions, attitudes and behaviour of the media user. The effects of media can therefore be present in various ways. The search for sensation or aggression in individuals have been linked to watching violent and frightening media, this is an
17 effect that applies particularly to the television and internet sources including video material (Valkenburg, Peter & Walther, 2016). Research also shows that within the news media people pay more attention to negative media content than to the positive news reports (Zillman et al. 2004).
In the classic study of Lazarsfeld et al. (1948), part of the Colombia School, it is suggested that people often look for political news content which confirms their own ideas and try to evade the content which is meant to change their mind. According to Lazarsfeld et al. (1948), this insight leads to the fact that the influence of news media on behavioural changes and political orientation is limited. Media use has been highly individualized in subsequent years. The rise of the internet in particular has played a major role in this development (Valkenburg, Peter & Walther, 2016). The content of news media is selected by users based on their own needs, regardless of the intention of the author or generator of the news content (McQuail, 2010). The selected media use of the user is therefore important to be able to determine the media effect. Both the selection of media types (for example TV, newspaper or internet) and the content of the media (for example news, entertainment) can play a role in this (Valkenburg, Peter & Walther, 2016). Because individuals shape their own selective sources or media input, they automatically form their own media effects. Media effects and the associated impact and influence therefore come from two sides, both the generators and the users. These influences of news media can, according to the various effects of media, contribute in several ways to the realization of the political orientation of an individual (Valkenburg, Peter & Walther, 2016).
2.6 Feeling safe and the role of terrorism
Political satisfaction can be measured with regard to for example the economic situation or health care. The word satisfaction is a fairly broad concept, so it is important to explain the concept as it is used in this study. Political satisfaction can depend on multiple variables (Cornelisse-Vermaat, Antonides, van Ophem & Maasen van den Brink, 2006). Health care within a country can therefore also have a major impact on political satisfaction. Satisfaction can be approached as an emotion (Fredrickson, 1998). The satisfaction and therefore emotions of the people have a certain influence on politics (Pedahzur, 2009) and thereby their political orientation. Political satisfaction is of great importance for current politicians, who want to continue to carry out their function for a longer period.
18 In addition to satisfaction with economic and health care issues, the feeling of safety among the population is an important factor in political satisfaction in a general sense. The feeling of security is determined on the basis of multiple factors. Terrorism has the greatest role, especially because of the many media attention it receives it plays a major role in our lives (Pedahzur, 2009). The problem is however, that terrorism has a psychological character aimed at citizens. The goal of terror is to scare people and make them not feeling safe anymore, it is a way of warfare that influences the emotions of the population (Pedahzur, 2009). Terrorism is a form of violence and intimidation by non-state actors aimed at civilians and so indirectly at national governments (Kydd & Walter, 2006). Through violence, terrorist organizations hope to enforce concessions with their enemy and at the same time gain support from their followers. According to Kydd & Walter (2006), a terrorist attack is a way to show the strength of their beliefs and the organization. A terrorist attack works in two ways. First of all, a terrorist attack creates fear within a population. But a terrorist organization is also helped by the responses of governments and individuals who in many cases contribute to achieving the goal of the attack (Kydd & Walter, 2006). Research conducted by Pape (2005) shows that terrorism has even been so successful that between 1980 and 2003 about half of suicide attacks created substantial concessions from governments in a very short period of time. And according to Kydd & Walter (2006), these "possibly partly emotional" concessions often contribute to the goal of the terrorist. It is therefore important that there is research into the political reaction of both citizens (political orientation) and politicians (attitude towards the people) regarding terrorist attacks. According to Pedahzur (2009), a terrorized population that is not satisfied with the response to terror from the government can lead to a lot of critics on current political leaders. Policymakers are very aware of the fact that they have to respond to the psychological impact that terrorism has on the population (Pedahzur, 2009) and are therefore very committed to fight everything what has to do with terrorism. In addition, policy makers are also aware of the fact that they can use the psychological effects of terrorism to win political support, for example during the elections. Research shows that terrorist attacks can lead to behavioural changes among the population, such as changes in mobility and voting behaviour (Liem, Kuipers & Sciarone, 2018). The practice clearly shows that every form of terrorism has a much greater impact on the population in comparison with other national security threats (Pedahzur, 2009). It is therefore one of the focus points for every national government to constantly improve safety requirements. The 9/11 terrorist attack and the war on terror may have strengthened the focus on improving security measures. For example, after these events, some national governments have invested a lot of money to improve the security of air, water and land (Amoore, L. 2006). A terrorist attack
19 attracts a lot of attention from the citizens and of course the media and therefore necessarily also from politicians. The same situation applies to immigration, where many national governments are under pressure regarding their immigration policy (Broeders, D. & J. Hampshire. 2013). In the post-9/11 world, the influences and role of the media seem to have a reinforcing effect. The media is also increasingly using terms and images of immigrants who evoke fear among citizens (Franko Aas, K. 2007). Again, the media plays a role in which a link is created between terrorism (or fear of) and immigrants. Immigration opponents (both opposition and civilians) express criticism of governments in which they argue that control over their own borders will be lost. For various groups in the populations of Europe, globalization, especially in the form of migration, means a threat to their cultural heritage and traditions (Franko Aas, K. 2007). Due to the pressure and attention given to these subjects (read security and migration), politicians have increased the budgets for border control (Broeders, D. & J. Hampshire. 2013). It can be said that border surveillance is undergoing changes currently, according to Broeders & Hampshire (2013), this policy of politicians stems either from fear of losing voters or to (re)gain trust of the population.
2.7 Conceptual model
Political support during election periods for populist right-wing political parties fluctuate strongly within the Netherlands and other countries within the EU (Boomgaarden & Vliegenthart, 2007). The aim of this study is to determine to what extent terrorist attacks and the influences of the media contribute to the fluctuating support for extreme-right-wing political parties.
With a study by Walgrave and de Swert (2004) as the starting point, Boomgaarden and Vliegenthart (2007) have conducted further research into the role of the media in the successes of the extreme right. According to Walgrave and de Swert (2004), news media have a certain influence in the attention and therefore turnout for anti-immigrant parties. Research by Boomgaarden and Vliegenthart (2007) confirms the findings of this study out of 2004 and claims to have found a significant positive influence of news on the final vote for an anti-immigrant party. The question is whether these positive influences are also present in the possible relationship between terrorism and political orientation. The media therefore plays an important role as a mediator in research. The mediator explains how or why such effects occur between variables (Baron & Kenny, 1986). In general, according to the opinion of Baron & Kennny (1986), it can be said that a given variable acts as a mediator if it explains the
20 relationship between the predictor and dependent variable. In the conceptual model (see Figure 1) the functioning of media in this mediator role is represented in lines b and c. Adding media to the model eliminates the direct relationship between terrorism and political orientation. The variable media is influenced by terrorism and has an impact on people's political orientation with the subsequent reporting. Terrorists respond to people's fears, according to Rosling (2018), the media works in the same way. Due to the amount of media attention paid to terrorism, the actual reach of terrorists is much greater and therefore also the impact on fear. With this process, the media mediate the relationship between terrorism and political orientation. According to Boomgaarden and Vliegenthart (2007), hardly any studies takes the impact of the media into an attempt to explain voting behaviour, until the writing of their research. It should be mentioned here that this statement comes well before 2019 and meanwhile the attention of the media has increased in the past period. However, the studies that take the influence of the media into account rarely make use of a complete set of variables or potential influential or explanatory factors. Causing the studies provide potentially incomplete evidence. This research should make a positive contribution to this so-called "gap" in the literature.
A conceptual model was created on the basis of the literature. With the help of this model, the findings and expectations from the theory can be clearly displayed.
Figure 2. Conceptual model Terrorist attacks and Political orientation
Figure 2 shows the relationships in the form of three lines between the variables terrorist attacks, political orientation and media. Line a’ shows the correlation between terrorist attacks and political orientation. According to Huddy et all (2002) there is a plausible connection between the sense of personal threat and the political support for policies to suppress the sense of threat. In general, current (national) events affect many individuals in their choice between political candidates and parties (Huddy et al., 2002). From this it is assumed that terrorism responds to this personal sense of threat and thus influences the political orientation of an individual. With
21 the help of the research question, the focus is on this coherence (so represented in line a) and an attempt will be made to explain this further. The literature shows a significant correlation between terror and voting behaviour in Israel (Berrebi & Klor, 2006), due to the great diversity of environment it cannot be said that the same situation applies to the European Union. However, it is an underlying motivation to dive deeper in this potential correlation within the EU where there are more and more signs of a political shift to extreme right-wing parties among various populations. It is unclear whether and to what extent the attacks in a country in question also influence the perception of the risk of populations in nearby countries (Liem, Kuipers & Sciarone, 2018). The European countries which are used within this study therefore treated individually in the analysis. These possible present influences are not taken into account. More information about the countries will be given in the next chapter.
In addition, the role of media is reflected in the conceptual model. According to Xu & Peterson (2017), media can play a mediating role in the relationship between political orientation and terrorist attacks. This role as a mediator is shown in the figure. The mediator (in this case the news media) takes of the direct relationship (a ’in the figure). Furthermore, the control variables have been added in the figure. According to the Colombia School (Lazarsfeld et al., 1948 & Berelson et al., 1954), all of these variables have influence on the political orientation of an individual. These variables control the potential influences of terrorist attacks on the political orientation of a population.
2.7.2 Control variables
In addition to the variables shown in the figure, a number of control variables are also used in this study. According to the Columbia School, the social background of a voter has a major influence on party preference and eventual political choice. With this, the voter identifies with his / her environment. Family, (ethnic) background and religion are important factors that determine the social background of a person (Berelson, et al., 1954). Religion is included as an “identification” control variable and represent the social background of populations in the analysis of the study. In addition to identification, the overarching attitude of the voter had a determining role in explaining voting behaviour according to the Columbia School (Berelson, et al. 1954). This category is presented by the data of ESS of the attitude of the European populations towards immigration and the European unification. The trust of the respondents of the ESS survey in the sitting parliament is included and added to this. With regard to immigration, EU and political trust, control variables will therefore be formed that will be included in the analysis, there is some overlap with opinion in this category. According to Betz
22 (1994) it can be assumed from the perspective of the individual that income and occupation influence the attitude of the individual towards the subject of immigration. A study by van der Burg and Fennema (2003) adds that the rating or satisfaction with their personal and national economic situation can also influence support for anti-immigrant parties. In an uncertain or unfavourable economic situation, people are more likely to turn against immigrants. This behaviour arises in particular from the belief that a higher number of immigrants can threaten the economic security of the individual or the country (Boomgaarden & Vliegenthart, 2007). Satisfaction with the economic situation will therefore also be included as a control variable This variable form the opinion value of the populations.
2.8 Hypotheses
On the basis of this theoretical framework, the following assumptions has been drawn up: Assumption 1: The fluctuations of political orientation (support for left or right) on a national scale differs per geographical region within Europe.
This assumption is based on the idea that the explanatory factors of political orientation differ between regions. The countries can differ in economic situation, immigration and the amount of terrorist attacks that the countries are confronted with. According to the theory, these are important factors that help to explain the political orientation of a population. The hypothesis is therefore that the development of political orientation will also differ per region.
Assumption 2: Terrorist attacks affect the political shift of support for right-wing political parties in Europe.
A study by Berrebi and Klor (2006) showed that there is case of a relationship between terrorism and political behaviour of people. This case study took place in Israel, however, it is expected that these results will broadly correspond to the situation in Europe. Therefore, according to the hypothesis, a relationship between political orientation and terrorist attacks exists. Theories of Brug & Fennema (2003) and Broeders & Hampshire (2013) show an increase in the sense of nationalism and the importance of protecting borders when one is confronted with terror more often. In addition, the agreement between extreme right-wing parties is the position on immigration. Countries that are more often confronted with a terrorist attack will more quickly be confronted with demands from the population for political changes. Right-wing political parties respond to this demand from the people and therefore terrorism is expected to be an explanation factor for this growth in support for these parties.
23 Assumption 3: News media mediates the relation between terrorist attacks and political orientation.
More recent theories go against the Columbia school concerning the impact of media. The media effects are present with several factors (Valkenburg, Peter & Walther, 2016). According to Xu and Peterson (2017), news media have a mediating role in explaining political orientation. For this reason, news media is expected to have a mediating role on the relation between political orientation of a population within a country and terrorist attacks.
24
3. Methodology
3.1 Methods
In this study the relationship between political orientation of EU citizens and terrorism is analysed in more detail. It is researched whether terrorism is a good explanation factor for the choice of political views of a population. The role of the media has also been studies within this relationship. In this research a dataset has been formed, based on the research done in the European Social Survey and the Global Terrorism Database. European Social Survey (ESS) includes of all the variables used in this study except for the independent variable: terrorism, which is provided by Gobal Terrorism Database (GTD).
3.1.2 European social survey
The data from ESS has been collected with the help of a repeated cross-sectional study, this method will also be used within this study. This research method means that several cases are included in the study, but measured in the same time (Bryman, 2015). At ESS, this means that every year new samples are taken with the same questions every two years. From 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 there is available data on 31 countries within Europe and all measured within the last months of the relevant year. Within al the samples of a country there are different participants who present the data of a country every two years. ESS uses a survey with a minimum target response of 70%. Finally, the unit of analysis of the survey of ESS in individuals is at least 15 years old1.For this study, this unit has been converted to the average of the countries across all measured individuals. The available data of the dependent, independent and control variables from countries within Europe and within the time period 2002-2016 are included in the data set. It is important to note that all data has already complied with the weighting rules of ESS before it has been used for analysis. For this a new value has been created within SPSS in which all values are multiplied. With this, overrepresentation of certain response groups within the population is brought into line.
1 European Social Survey (2016). Politics.
http://nesstar.ess.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?v=2&submode=variable&study=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.8
3%3A-1%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2FESS8e02.1&gs=undefined&variable=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.83%3A80%2Fobj %2FfVariable%2FESS8e02.1_V85&mode=documentation&top=yes (consulted on 15-5-19)
25 3.1.3 Global terrorism database
The collected data of the variable terrorism comes from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Global Terrorism Database originated from an initiative of a group of researchers at the University of Maryland (United States). From 1970 to 2017 all terrorist incidents that have been reported in reliable media have been collected. With the help of this database, a new dataset has been created that can be used for this research and thus makes the research feasible. Of the countries that serve as the case for the research, the incidents and associated victims will be expressed in figures within a year. In this way a dataset is created, in which the variable terrorism is expressed separately over the countries and various years. As indicated, 2017 is the last measurement moment of Global Terrorism Database, by checking all incidents the database is slightly behind in terms of topicality. However, the ESS dataset extends to the year 2016, so 2016 is therefore used as the last research year. The existing data of the two sources have been combined in this study into a joint dataset.
3.2 Case selection
In recent years, the fear of terrorism has increased in many countries within the EU, which made the counter-terrorism policy one of the most important items on the political agenda (Roy van Zuijdewijn, 2016). In addition, a political landslide can be seen within the EU, in which the support among citizens for right-wing nationalist parties has increased enormously2. Besides these developments in the EU, the excellent transparency and availability of data from the EU have also been an important factor for the choice of the EU as the case of this research. Because of the current political shift and grow of support for extreme right-wing political parties among populations in several EU countries (according to (Brug van der & Fennema, 2003) and the other mentioned considerations, it was decided to carry out the research into the nations of the European Union. The following countries making part of this study: Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Cyprus, Czechia, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia and Slovakia. The cases (the European countries used in this research) are all subdivided into four regions North,
2Raalte van, J. (2016, 23 May). In deze landen maakt rechts-populisme zijn opmars.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/in-deze-landen-maakt-rechts-populisme-zijn-opmars~bf0524e4/ (consulted on 26-2-19)
26 East, South and West based on the geographical subdivision of the UN 3. The variables expressed in the created dataset are formed by surveys among the populations of the EU member states, from which a result per member state can be formed.
3.3 Data analyses
Within this research, there is chosen for executing a deductive quantitative research. The basis of this cross-sectional design research will be formed by descriptive statistics. The statistical programme SPSS was used for the introduction, processing and analysis of the data. In addition to descriptive statistics, an attempt for multiple regressions will be made. Besides this, there is also made an attempt to carry out a trend analysis. With this is tried to create an insight into the political orientation within the differences between the regions of Europe and their possible trends or changes for the future. This trend analysis will be carried out when the theoretical framework and the first analyses combining a clear idea about political orientation with regard to terrorism. Subsequently, the most important trends can be described in more detail, from which a cautious prediction can perhaps be made. The trend analyses are divided into two figures. The first figure shows the general trend of Europe and the second makes a geographical distinction between the regions North, West, East and South. However, the relative values are most relevant in order of getting for information about the relationship between the political orientation of people and the number of victims due to terrorist attacks. For example, due to the relative ratio, 20 victims can have a greater impact on people in eastern Europe than in southern Europe. The same applies to the political orientation. Not the absolute values are interesting in the trend analysis, but the fluctuations within this variable. The emphasis is therefore also placed on the fluctuations of the trend analyses.
The possible limitations are taken into account during the data analyses. There is a strive for a transparent and honest investigation, which means that there is a clear and reproducible for everyone where the data and statistics come from. The reproducibility and transparency of the research are important factors for reliability. This can demonstrate that the re-execution of the research leads to the same results. Additional control variables will be added to the analyses, variables that according to the theory can have an explanatory factor in the political orientation of populations. This will provide a more complete view of the actual impact on the sense of
3 UN (2006). Standard country or area codes for statistical use (M49).
27 security, which will enhance the validity of the research. There is a certain awareness of possible limitations, so that transparency and honesty are very important in this research.
3.4 Dependent variable
The research question is: To what extent do terrorist attacks affect the political orientation of the citizens of Europe and how can this be explained by the TV news media influences? With this problem, an attempt is made to explain and possibly predict the political orientation of European citizens. Political orientation is the dependent variable of the research. The political orientation of people is mostly largely decided by the opinion and current feelings among the citizens. To gain an insight into the political orientation of the population in a country, European Social Survey asked the participant their opinion about certain statement. The statement about political orientation is as follows: In politics people sometimes talk of 'left' and 'right'. Using this card, where would you place yourself on this scale, where 0 means the left and 10 means the right?.4 It can thus be derived from what the respondents are about in terms of their political position. With a higher average, for example, it can be inferred that a country is more right-wing oriented and so also the other way around, that with a lower average there is more support for the left-wing political parties. Using this data, the dependent variable political orientation can be further analysed.
3.5 Independent variables
This study examines whether terrorist attacks have any impact on the political orientation of the population of the EU member states. In this case the presence of terrorist attacks and victims is the most important independent variable. There are two different variables about terrorism added to the dataset. The first variable of terrorism is expressed in the fear for a terrorist attack within a country. However, this variable has a low amount of observations (N), because this variable is only included in the data set for two survey periods. The participants of the survey
4European Social Survey (2016). Politics.
http://nesstar.ess.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?v=2&submode=variable&study=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.8
3%3A-1%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2FESS8e02.1&gs=undefined&variable=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.83%3A80%2Fobj %2FfVariable%2FESS8e02.1_V85&mode=documentation&top=yes (consulted on 15-2-19)
28 were confronted with the next question: “Do you think that a terrorist attack somewhere in [country] during the next twelve months is?”5 The other variable concerning terrorist attacks consists the number of victims to a terrorist attack within the country in the specific time frame of two years. The total amount of victims to terrorist attacks according to GTD is added to the dataset. All data used regarding terrorism was made possible by GTD.
The "media" is another important independent variable within the research. With the help of the European Social Survey dataset, a variable is formed in the created dataset about the media. The watching behaviour of the respondents concerning the news and political affairs on TV is measured in the amount of time / hours. This data is added as a variable which is representing the media. As mentioned by Luyendijk (2017), the TV has the strongest impact. This variable arises from the following question to the respondents: In an average weekday, how much of your time watching television is spent watching news or programmes about politics and current affairs? Respondents could answer with seven options from none to more than three hours. The choice of a variable representing media in the analysis was somewhat limited. This variable was one of the few that satisfied the minimum amount of observations, while other variables had too many missing values.
3.6 Control variables
To guarantee the validity and representativeness of the analyses within this research, some control variables will also be added to the data set. The chosen control variables are based on the theoretical framework. Based on the Columbia school, the set of variables to explain political orientation must represent four categories. The described shift in focus in the theoretical framework means that the set of variables should primarily cover opinion and perception. This has led to the creation of a set of control variables that will be described in this paragraph.
Satisfaction of the participants with regard to the national government is an example of one of those control variables which are used in this research. In the European Social Survey dataset, the participants in the study were asked the following question to measure satisfaction with the current economic situation among the population: On the whole how satisfied are you with the
5 European Social Survey (2016). Subjective well-being.
http://nesstar.ess.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?v=2&submode=variable&study=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.8 3%3A1%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2FESS8e02.1&gs=undefined&variable=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.83%3A80% 2Fobj%2FfVariable%2FESS8e02.1_V85&mode=documentation&top=yes (consulted on 15-2-19)
29 present state of the economy in [country]?6. Participants were able to fill in 0 to 10, with 0 being extremely dissatisfied and 10 being extremely satisfied.
There are also control variables been used regarding the opinions and attitudes towards immigrants and the European unification. This variable was also made possible by the European Social Survey dataset. Regarding immigration, respondents were asked the following: Is [country] made a worse or a better place to live by people coming to live here from other countries?7. The participants had the choice from 0 to 10, were a low value means that immigrant make a country worse to live and a higher number the opposite.
Finally, confidence in the current government among the population within the requested country has been added as a control variable in this study. The respondents were presented with the following statement for this variable: please tell me on a score of 0-10 how much you personally trust each of the institutions I read out. 0 means you do not trust an institution at all, and 10 means you have complete trust.
3.7 Procedure
Every variable except the data concerning the victims of terrorist attacks comes from the European Social Survey dataset. This dataset consists the data of respondents from 31 European Countries within the time period from 2002 to 2016. However, this study looks at national level in an attempt to explain the political fluctuations (between left and right) within Europe. Using SPSS, the average for all countries has therefore been calculated for each period. The values of the variables thus represent an average of all respondents within a country.
The created variable of the data from the Global Terrorism Database form the sum of a two-year period. This means that for the variable "Terrorism victims 2016" all cases from 2015 and 2016 are added together and represent in this way the total value of the variable. This working method comes from the idea that a terrorist attack in 2015 can still influence respondents' attitudes and opinions towards political issues. All other by GTD declared terrorist attacks that were no victims are fallen were not included in this research. Mostly because it is
6 European Social Survey (2016). Politics.
http://nesstar.ess.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?v=2&submode=variable&study=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.8 3%3A1%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2FESS8e02.1&gs=undefined&variable=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.83%3A80% 2Fobj%2FfVariable%2FESS8e02.1_V85&mode=documentation&top=yes (consulted on 15-2-19)
7 European Social Survey (2016). Politics.
http://nesstar.ess.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?v=2&submode=variable&study=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.8 3%3A1%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2FESS8e02.1&gs=undefined&variable=http%3A%2F%2F129.177.90.83%3A80% 2Fobj%2FfVariable%2FESS8e02.1_V85&mode=documentation&top=yes (consulted on 15-2-19)
30 expected that hardly any attention was paid within a country to these cases so that voters were hardly aware of these events. The inclusion of these attacks without victims will only disturb the outcomes of the analysis. Partly because of this reason, an extra variable concerning terrorism has also been chosen that displays the number of victims within the given period. This comes from the idea that two terrorist attacks with 10 victims may have a potential greater impact on the opinion of individuals than ten attacks with 2 victims.
The dataset is struggling with some misses within some of the variables. Regarding the attitude towards immigrants and the European unification, the year 2002 lacks data, these statements have not yet been included in the survey conducted for that year. The other misses are within the media variables. The last measured year (2016) is missing from the variable that shows watching the news on TV, this year is also the only measured year of the other media variable. This means that they weigh against each other. In addition, no fixed set of countries has been maintained by ESS over the years. This means that in some countries, for example, measurements were only made from 2008, or were measured until the year 2008 and no further data was available. However, this has possible not any further impact on the analysis. It should only be taken into account when comparing regions within Europe with each other. The total amount of observations per variable can be seen in the table of the descriptive statistics (table 1) in the next chapter.
