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François  Hollande,  chef  de  guerre?    

A  neoclassical  realist  approach  to  France’s  military  intervention  in  Mali    

 

 

Graduate  School  of  Social  Sciences  

Our  Changing  Global  Economic  and  Security  Order  after  the  Crisis     Supervisor:  G.  Underhill     31  March  2016       Hanna  Smit     6050700  /  hannasmit90@gmail.com                

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LIST  OF  CONTENTS  

                                   

1.        Introduction   ...0  

2.   Literature  Review   ...6  

3.   Theoretical  Framework   ...16  

4.   A  Historical  Background  of  France's  Africa  Policy...Fout!Bladwijzer  niet  gedefinieerd.   5.          Case  Study:  France's  response  to  the  Northern  Mali  Crisis  . ...45  

6.   Conclusion...54   Bibliography...55   Appendix  ...65                                    

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Acronyms  and  Abbreviations  

 

AU       African  Union  

CAE       Central  African  Empire   CAR       Central  African  Republic    

CSDP       Common  Security  and  Defence  Policy     DRC       Democratic  Republic  of  Congo    

DOM-­‐TOM     Départements  d’Oûtre-­‐Mêr  –  Territoires  d’Oûtre-­‐Mêr   DV       dependent  variable    

ECOWAS     Economic  Community  of  West  African  States   EU       European  Union    

ESDP       European  Security  and  Defence  Policy     FPE       Foreign  Policy  Executive  (Kitchen  NCR)     IDV       independent  variable    

IV         intervening  variable    

MNLA         Mouvement  National  de  Liberation  de  l’Azawad     NATO         North  Atlantic  Treaty  Organisation    

RECAMP     Renforcement  des  Capacités  Africaines  de  Maintien  de  la  Paix           [Reinforcement  of  African  peacekeepers  capacities]  

UN         United  Nations    

UNAMIR     United  Nations  Assistance  Mission  for  Rwanda     UNSC       United  Nations  Security  Council    

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1. INTRODUCTION    

 

Over   the   past   decades   international   peacekeeping   has   experienced   some   major   transformations.  The  changing  international  environment  after  the  end  of  the  Cold  War   and   thereafter   in   a   post-­‐9/11   world   has   led   to   an   increasingly   complex   security   environment,  which  has  forced  states  to  adapt  to  a  new  approach  to  international  crisis   management  that  takes  into  account  non-­‐traditional  and  transnational  security  threats.   The  aftermath  of  the  Arab  spring  resulted  in  a  significant  increase  of  security  threats  on   Europe’s  southern  borders,  the  so-­‐called  ‘arc  of  instability’,  which  stretches  from  North   Africa  and  the  Sahel  region  to  the  Levant,  the  Horn  of  Africa  and  the  Persian  Gulf.2  Even   though  these  security  threats  affect  the  entire  European  community,  there  is  a  strong   imbalance   when   it   comes   to   external   crisis   management   (CSS,   2013).   While   the   fight   against  the  Islamic  State  (IS)  in  Syria  and  Iraq  currently  attracts  a  lot  of  attention,  it  is   important   to   bear   in   mind   that   the   African   continent   hosts   the   greatest   number   of   multinational  peace  operations  and  twice  as  many  uniformed  peacekeepers  as  a  decade   before.  The  crises  in  the  Central  African  Republic  (CAR),  the  Democratic  Republic  of  the   Congo  (DRC),  Mali,  Somalia  and  South  Sudan  led  to  the  deployment  of  eight  new  peace   operations  in  2013  and  four  peace  operations  in  2014  (SIPRI,  2014b:  99).3      

Despite  the  notion  of  African  solutions  for  African  problems,  which  emerged  after   a   number   of   disastrous   events   in   the   1990s   as   a   result   of   failed   Western   crisis   management,   in   particular   the   Rwandan   genocide   in   1994,   there   is   one   state   in   particular   that   has   placed   itself   at   the   center   stage   of   crisis   management   in   Africa:   France.   The   diverging   strategic   outlooks   of   EU   member   states   regarding   their   willingness  to  participate  in  international  military  interventions  is  a  great  obstacle  for   an   efficient   security   cooperation   between   the   member   states   of   the   European   Union   (EU).  Efforts  to  build  an  efficient  Common  Security  and  Defence  Policy  (CSDP)  to  share   the  military  burden  have  not  led  to  the  desired  outcome  due  to,  among  other  things,  the  

                                                                                                                         

2  Zie  figuur  X    

3  In  2013  four  new  peace  operations  took  place  in  Mali:  AFISMA  (Jointly  led  by  AU  &  ECOWAS);  MINUSMA;  EUTM  Mali  and  

Operation   Serval   (French-­‐led).   Three   peace   operations   were   deployed   to   the   CAR:   MISCA   (AU-­‐led),   Operation   Sangaris   (French-­‐led)  and  BINUCA  (UN-­‐led).  The  eighth  operation  took  place  in  Somalia:  UNSOM.  In  2014  the  EU  deployed  a  mission   in   CAR   (EUFOR   RCA)   and   Mali   (EUCAP   Mali   Sahel).   France   deployed   a   military   operation   spread   over   the   Sahel   region   (Operation  Barkhane).    In  2015  the  EU  launched  a  CSDP  mission  in  CAR  (EUMAM  RCA).  (SIPRI,  2014:  101;  2015)      

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fact   that   states   continue   to   pursue   their   own   national   interests.   Cooperation   among   states  is  therefore  vulnerable  to  a  collective  action  problem.  The  willingness  of  states  to   intervene  in  conflict  areas  depends  on  a  broad  range  of  factors,  including  the  military   capabilities,   strategic   cultures,   the   availability   of   alternative   responses,   the   degree   of   domestic  constraints  and,  last  but  not  least,  the  perception  of  the  level-­‐of-­‐threat  to  the   national  interests.  Even  though  the  normative  rationales  are  widespread  in  the  political   discourse,  economic  and  strategic  rationales  mostly  take  the  upper  hand  (Tardy,  2012).   France  and  the  UK  are  known  for  their  positive  attitude  towards  international  military   interventions  while  Germany,  a  global  economic  power,  is  more  sceptical  towards  the   use  of  force.  This  phenomenon  is  also  illustrated  by  the  national  defence  budgets,  which   are   significantly   larger   in   France   and   the   UK   than   in   other   European   member   states   (SIPRI,  2015:  2).5                  

  France  has  a  long-­‐established  tradition  of  military  intervention,  especially  on  the   African  continent.  Since  the  fall  of  its  colonial  empire,  France  has  been  the  most  active   external   military   power.   The   accusations   for   neo-­‐colonial   practices   and   the   changing   international  environment  in  the  1990s  led  to  a  number  of  major  reforms  in  France’s   Africa   policy,   including   the   promise   of   a   definitive   break   with   la   Françafrique   (the   network   of   formal   and   informal   interests   that   was   left   behind   after   the   fall   of   the   colonial  empire),  of  which  the  military  presence  in  the  former  pré  carré    (the  exclusive   sphere  of  influence  in  West  and  Central  Africa),  was  the  most  important  pillar.    When   François  Hollande  became  president  of  France  in  2012  he  too  promised  a  definite  break   with  the  traditional  Franco-­‐African  relations  and  signalled  a  hands-­‐off  policy  on  former   colonies   (Hollande,   2013).   The   renewed   Africa   policies   and   Hollande’s   focus   on   new   partnership   with   Anglophone   and   Lusophone   states   outside   of   the   former   pré   carré   appeared   to   be   an   actual   (attempt   to)   break   with   the   traditional   Franco-­‐African   relations.   Along   with   the   cuts   in   the   defence   budget   (as   a   response   to   the   Eurozone’s   economic   crisis),   the   promotion   of   multilateralism   and   Hollande’s   reputation   of   being   indecisive   and   timid   on   domestic   affairs,   he   surprised   the   French   public   and   the   international  community  when  he  turned  out  to  be,  or  at  least  acted  like,  a  true  chef  de   guerre.8  In   January   2013   he   sent   3,500   troops   to   Mali   (Operation   Serval)   and   in  

                                                                                                                         

5  France  and  the  UK  rank  #5  and  #6  respectively  when  it  comes  to  the  world’s  military  expenditure.    

8  Under  the  presidency  of  Nicolas  Sarkozy,  France’s  military  footprint  on  the  African  continent  had  slightly  been  reduced.  

Sarkozy  appointed  more  strategic  importance  to  the  Gulf  region,  which  is  illustrated  by  the  opening  of  the  first  permanent   military  basis  in  Abu  Dhabi  in  2009.    

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December  later  that  year  he  deployed  900  troops  to  the  Central  African  Republic  (CAR)   (Operation  Sangaris).  In  August  2014  Operation  Serval  came  to  an  end  to  be  replaced   with  Operation  Barkhane,  a  large-­‐scale  French-­‐led  counter-­‐terrorism  operation  spread   over   Mauritania,   Mali,   Niger,   Chad,   Burkina   Faso   (also   known   as   the   G5)   to   offer   an   efficient  and  durable  solution  for  the  transnational  aspect  of  the  non-­‐traditional  security   threats,   for   which   a   regional   response   is   required.   This   paper   seeks   to   analyse   the   remarkable  military  comeback  of  the  French  army  on  the  African  continent  shortly  after   Hollande   pledged   that   France   would   cease   to   meddle   in   Africa’s   affairs   and   that   the   continent   should   start   to   take   charge   of   its   own   security.   To   this   end,   the   following   research  question  has  been  formulated:    

 

What  explains  France’s  expanding  military  presence  on  the  African  continent  under   the  presidency  of  François  Hollande?  

           

The   conventional   wisdom   in   the   literature   suggests   that   the   influence   of   the   French   identity   and   the   colonial   legacy   are   determinant   for   the   decisions   made   by   governing   elites  on  military  policy  in  Africa.  This  paper  acknowledges  that  French  foreign  policy  in   particular  is  hard  to  explain  without  including  its  foreign  policy  of  grandeur,  based  on   ideational  factors  such  as  exceptionalism,  nationalism  and  Republican  values.  However,   it   does   argue   that   explanations   for   French   interventionism   in   Africa   under   President   Hollande  cannot  solely  rely  on  constructivist  ideational  explanations.  Structural  realist   explanations  that  suggest  that  military  involvement  is  a  means  to  advance  or  defend  the   national  interests  and  thus  ultimately  a  means  for  a  state  to  advance  its  relative  power   in  the  international  system,  needs  to  be  taken  into  account.    

This   paper   argues   that   a   broad   range   of   factors,   including   national   interests,   universal  values,  strategic  culture  and  responsibilities  play  an  important  role  in  French   external   action,   which   implies   that   both   realist   explanations   as   well   as   constructivist   ideational   explanations   have   to   be   taken   into   account   to   provide   a   comprehensive   explanation   for   France’s   military   presence   in   Africa.   The   neoclassical   realist   approach   proves   that   realist   explanations   on   the   one   hand   and   constructivist   ideational   explanations  on  the  other  hand  can  be  compatible,  despite  the  fundamentally  different   views  on  international  behavior  and  foreign  policy.  Since  the  predominant  paradigm  in   this   paper   is   realism,   ideational   factors   are   treated   as   intervening   domestic   variables  

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between  systemic  pressures  and  the  foreign  policy  outcome  instead  of  appointing  them   direct   causal   property.   The   neoclassical   realist   framework   provides   an   integrative   model  of  both  systemic  and  domestic  factors,  including  constructivist  ideational  factors   at  the  domestic  level,  which  makes  it  a  useful  tool  of  analysis  for  foreign  policies  with  a   broad  explanatory  reach.  Especially  for  France  this  methodology  is  useful  considering   its   unique   foreign   policies   towards   the   African   continent.   Since   the   already   abundant   existing   literature   on   the   subject   lacks   a   systematic   analysis   of   France’s   Africa   policy   within  a  neoclassical  realist  framework,  it  is  here  this  study  seeks  to  provide  a  (modest)   contribution.      

1.1  Case  selection  and  methodology    

France  has  a  long-­‐established  tradition  of  military  involvement  on  the  African  continent.   Although  it  has  decreased  significantly  since  the  changing  international  environment  in   the   1990s,   its   military   presence   has   never   really   vanished.   The   current   3,100   prepositioned  troops  spread  over  four  permanent  military  bases  in  Gabon,  Côte  d’Ivoire,   Djibouti  and  Senegal  demonstrate  that  France  is  still  the  major  external  military  power   on  the  continent.9  What  indicates  France’s  expanding  military  presence  under  president   Hollande  were  the  state’s  responses  to  the  Northern  Mali  crisis  and  later  that  year  to  the   humanitarian  crisis  in  CAR  in  2013.    

This   paper   uses   the   neoclassical   realist   approach   to   provide   a   comprehensive   explanation   for   France’s   expanding   military   presence   in   Africa   since   2013,   by   conducting  a  qualitative  case  study  of  France’s  response  to  the  crisis  in  Mali  that  broke   out   in   2012.   The   case   study   consists   of   an   analysis   of   the   decision-­‐making   process   leading   to   France’s   responses   to   the   Northern   Mali   conflict.   More   specifically,   it   will   analyse  why  France  intervened  in  January  2013  and  not  earlier.  The  French  response  to   the   crisis   in   Northern   Mali   is   a   good   case   because   it   was   the   first   French   military   intervention  in  Africa  after  President  Hollande  had  said  that  African  countries  should  be   more  responsible  for  their  own  security.  It  is  beyond  the  scope  of  this  study  to  analyse   both   military   interventions.   However,   if   it   turns   out   that   the   neoclassical   realist   approach   offers   a   good   explanation   for   this   case   study,   it   could   also   be   relevant   and   useful  as  a  tool  of  analysis  for  the  intervention  in  CAR.      

                                                                                                                         

9  For  an  up-­‐to-­‐date  map  of  all  the  prepositioned  French  forces  and  permanent  military  bases  on  the  African  

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In  order  to  identify  the  origins  and  the  impact  of  systemic  and  domestic  factors   on   the   decision-­‐making   process   leading   to   the   deployment   of   troops   in   Mali,   it   is   important   to   employ   an   in-­‐depth   historical   analysis   of   France’s   Africa   policy,   which   ought   to   explain   why   France’s   current   relation   with   the   continent   is   unique   and   different   than   that   of   other   former   European   colonial   powers.11  A   contextual   background   of   François   Hollande’s   Africa   policy   and   the   domestic   incentives   and   constraints  he  experienced  in  general  should  also  provide  a  better  understanding  of  the   decision-­‐making   processes.   Once   the   historical   and   contextual   backgrounds   are   established,   the   applicability   of   the   neoclassical   realist   framework   will   be   tested   through   a   comparative   case   study   design   with   two   distinct   but   complementary   methods:   Structured   Focused   Comparison   (SFC)   and   Process   Tracing   (PT).   These   two   methods   ought   to   explore   the   commonalities   across   cases   and   capture   the   individual   uniqueness   within   the   cases.   SFC   is   useful   for   observing   differences   between   the   different  cases  while  the  purpose  of  PT  is  to  identify  causal  processes  within  the  cases   and  between  the  variables  (George  &  Bennett,  2005).      

 

1.2  Motivations  and  outline      

The   fact   that   France   has   remained   to   be   an   important   external   power   on   the   African   continent,  and  that  it  has  kept  punching  above  its  weight  in  the  international  system  by   maintaining   its   central   role   in   international   organisations,   such   as   the   UN   Security   Council  (UNSC),  is  a  remarkable  phenomenon.  The  political  discourse,  in  which  a  break   with   the   past   and   the   preference   for   multilateralism   is   regularly   mentioned,   offers   a   mixed   picture   of   the   reality,   in   which   the   opposite   often   appears   to   be   the   case.   A   situation   of   that   kind   occurred   when   President   Hollande   pledged   not   to   meddle   in   Africa’s   affairs,   shortly   before   he   launched   two   large-­‐scale   military   operations   in   Mali   and  in  CAR.    

This  study  distinguishes  itself  from  the  existing  literature  on  France’s  Africa  policy   by  applying  a  neoclassical  realist  framework,  which  will  be  outlined  in  the  next  chapter   that  also  provides  a  review  of  the  existing  literature  on  France’s  Africa  policy.  The  third   chapter  will  elaborate  on  the  variables  and  causal  mechanisms  and  hypotheses  within  

                                                                                                                         

11  Historical  analysis  is  a  common  method  for  neoclassical  realists,  who  work  with  complex  causal  processes  

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this   neoclassical   realist   framework.   Thereafter,   before   conducting   the   case   study,   a   historical  and  contextual  background  will  be  provided  in  order  to  fully  understand  the   role   of   systemic   and   domestic   pressures   and   in   what   way   and   to   what   extent   these   factors   influenced   the   decision-­‐making   processes   that   led   to   the   launch   of   Operation   Serval  in  January  2013  

                                                       

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2. LITERATURE  REVIEW    

 

As   was   indicated   in   the   previous   section,   neither   solely   systemic   factors   nor   solely   constructivist   ideational   factors   are   able   to   provide   a   comprehensive   theoretical   explanation   for   France’s   military   policy   on   the   African   continent.   The   theory   of   this   paper  is  constructed  on  the  idea  that  the  level  of  France’s  military  involvement  depends   on   the   level-­‐of-­‐threat   posed   by   a   crisis   (in   this   case   the   crisis   in   Mali   that   started   in   2012)  on  its  national  interests.  However,  domestic  and  constructivist  ideational  factors   do  play  an  intervening  role  in  the  causal  link  between  the  perceived  level  of  threat  and   the   level   of   military   involvement.   These   complex   and   indirect   causal   links   between   systemic  pressures  and  foreign  policy  outcomes  are  outlined  in  the  neoclassical  realist   framework,  which  incorporates  unit-­‐level  variables  into  a  structural  realist  framework.    

The  next  section  provides  a  description  of  the  origins  of  neoclassical  realism  and   the  reasons  why  it  is  a  logical  extension  of  structural  realism.  Thereafter  an  overview   will   be   provided   of   the   systemic   and   ideational   explanations   that   are   provided   by   the   existing  literature  on  France’s  Africa  policy  since  the  1960s.    

2.1  Realist  theories    

The  predominant  paradigm  in  this  paper  –  Realism  –  is  a  collection  of  assumptions  that   “suggest   the   main   determinants   of   international   conditions,   and   suggest   a   research   agenda   for   further   inquiry   about   International   Relations.   Thus   realism   provides   guidance  for  where  the  truth  can  be  found,  but  not  the  truth  itself.”  (Frankel,  1996:  xiv-­‐ xviii;   Legro   &   Moravcsik,   199:   9;  Van   Evera,   1992:4).12  Robert   Gilpin   maintains   that   “Realism   (…)   is   essentially   a   philosophical   position;   it   is   not   a   scientific   theory   that   is   subject   to   the   test   of   falsifiability   and,   therefore,   cannot   be   proved   or   disproved.” (Gilpin,   1996:   6).13  However,   a   number   of   testable   theories   have   emerged   from   this  

collection  of  assumptions,  of  which  the  most  important  are:  classical  realism,  structural   realism14  and  neoclassical  realism.15  The  common  ground  of  these  theories  can  be  found  

                                                                                                                         

12  The   statement   of   Stephen   van   Evera   about   Realism   as   a   paradigm   is   cited   in   Frankel,   B.(1996),   Realism:  

Restatements  and  Renewal,    xiii.  The  statement  is  also  cited  in  Legro  &  Moravcsik  (1999).   Is  Anybody  still  a   realist?,  9.    

13  The   statement   of   Robert   Gilpin   about   Realism   as   a   paradigm   is   cited   in   Frankel,   B.   (1996),   Realism:  

Restatements  and  Renewal,    xiii.    

14  Structural   realism   is   also   known   as   neo-­‐realism,   based   on   the   work   of   Kenneth   Waltz.   (1979).   Another  

important   contributor   to   the   structural   realist   school   is   John   Mearsheimer   who   is   known   for   his   offensive   realist  views.    

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in  their  emphasis  on  states  as  power-­‐  and  security  maximisers  and  on  their  self-­‐reliance   in  the  anarchic  international  system  (Frankel,  1996:  xiv-­‐xviii;  Gilpin,  1996:  6-­‐8).16    

     

The   theories   differ   in   their   level-­‐of-­‐analysis17,   their   unit-­‐of-­‐analysis   and   their  

method   for   explaining   causality.   Kenneth   Waltz   in   Theory   of   International   Politics   elaborates   on   the   different   levels-­‐of-­‐analysis:     “System   theories   explain   why   different   units  behave  similarly  and,  despite  their  variations,  produce  outcomes  that  fall  within   expected  ranges.  Conversely,  theories  at  the  unit  level  tell  us  why  different  units  behave   differently  despite  their  similar  placement  in  a  system.”  (Waltz,  1979:  72).  This  implies   that  structural  realist  theories  treat  states  as  “black  boxes”  and  that  a  system-­‐level-­‐of-­‐ analysis  cannot  explain  variances  in  foreign  policies  of  states  that  experience  the  same   systemic   imperatives.18  For   this   reason   Waltz   would   deny   that   a   structural   realist   approach  is  able  to  explain  the  motives  behind  a  particular  military  intervention,  which   belongs  to  foreign  policy,  and  not  international  politics.  A  number  of  scholars,  including   Randall  Schweller,  disagree  on  this  point:    

 

“(…)  all  self-­described  realists  share  the  conviction  that  anarchy  is  a  persistent  condition   that  cannot  be  transcended,  and  that  states  will  continue  to  struggle,  as  they  have  always   done,   for   material   capabilities,   political   influence,   security,   prestige,   and   other   scarce   material  and  social  resources.  Seen  in  this  light,  political  realism  is  not  only  a  predictive   and   explanatory   theory   about   international   politics   but   also   a   prescriptive   theory   of  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

15  The   realist   paradigm   is   influenced   by   the   political   thoughts   of   Thucidydes,   Thomas   Hobbes   and   Niccolò  

Macchiavelli.    

16  The  similarities  between  realist  theories  can  be  found  in  the  following  key  realist  assumptions.  First  of  all,  

the  state  –  rather  than  individuals  or  international  organisations  -­‐  is  the  most  important  and  central  actor  in   the  anarchic  international  system:  there  is  no  supranational  authority  and  states  can  only  rely  on  themselves   to   safeguard   their   survival   (self-­‐help).   In   order   to   survive   states   seek   to   maximise   their   security   and   power,   which  can  be  a  means  for  security  or  an  end  in  itself.  States  strive  to  advance  their  national  interests  and  are   not  reluctant  to  the  use  force  if  this  leads  them  to  more  relative  power.  The  distribution  of  power  and  security   in   the   international   system   is   a   so-­‐called   “zero-­‐sum”   game,   which   means   that   an   increase   in   power   and/or   security  is  always  at  the  expense  of  others  states;  states  seek  relative  power  and  not  absolute  power  (Frankel,   1996:  xiv-­‐xviii;  Gilpin,  1996:  6-­‐8).      

17  Kenneth  Waltz  distinguishes  the  level-­‐of-­‐analysis  between  three  levels:  1.  The  individual  –  the  behavior  of  

individuals  is  intertwined  with  the  actions  of  states;  2.  The  state  –  state  behaviour  is  influenced  by  its  domestic   structure;  3.  The  international  system  –  state  behaviour  conforms  to  the  power  position  in  the  anarchic  system   (Dyson,   2010:   97).   This   study   distinguishes   two   levels-­‐of-­‐analysis:   the   unit-­‐level,   which   comprises   both   the   individual  and  the  state,  and  the  system-­‐level  for  the  international  system.    

18  Realist  theories  differ  in  their  unit-­‐of-­‐analysis:  whether  they  want  to  explain  international  politics  or  foreign  

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‘pragmatic’   foreign   or   external   policy.”   (Schweller   &   Wohlworth,   2000:   72;   Schweller,  

2003:  329).      

Furthermore,   Colin   Dueck’s   analysis   on   US   interventions   demonstrates   that   “because   the  international  system  is  anarchic,  states  are  forced  to  rely  upon  their  own  devices  in   order  to  survive.  One  of  these  devices  is  military  intervention.”  (Dueck,  2009:  140-­‐141).   Therefore,   this   study   claims   that   the   decisions   to   launch   military   interventions   are   influenced   primarily   by   systemic   pressures,   despite   the   fact   that   structural   realists   argue   that   a   system-­‐level-­‐analysis   cannot   explain   foreign   policies,   including   military   interventions.  Domestic  politics  have  an  influence  on  the  exact  form  of  the  intervention,   but   cannot   be   seen   as   its   primary   cause.     At   the   same   time   a   system-­‐level-­‐of-­‐analysis   cannot  explain  foreign  policies,  including  military  interventions.  A  dichotomy  between   system-­‐   and   unit-­‐level   factors   would   provide   a   solution   to   offer   a   comprehensive   explanation  for  France’s  military  involvement  on  the  African  continent.  It  is  here  where   neoclassical   realism,   a   term   coined   by   Gideon   Rose   in   1998,   serves   as   a   logical   extension,  and  not  a  replacement19,  of  the  structural  realist  approach:    

 

“It  [neoclassical  realism]  explicitly  incorporates  both  internal  and  external  variables,  updating  and  

systematising   certain   insights   drawn   from   classical   realist   thought.   Its   adherents   argue   that   the   scope   and   ambition   of   a   country’s   foreign   policy   is   driven   first   and   foremost   by   its   place   in   the   international  system  and  specifically  by  its  relative  material  power  capabilities.  This  is  why  they   are   realist.   They   argue   further,   however,   that   the   impact   of   such   power   capabilities   on   foreign   policy  is  indirect  and  complex,  because  systemic  pressures  must  be  translated  through  intervening   variables  at  the  unit  level.  This  is  why  they  are  neoclassical.”  (Rose,  1998:  146).      

 

Thus,  “the  system  is  not  determinative  in  the  sense  that  it  does  not  do  state’s  work  for   them.”  (Rathbun,  2008:  305).  Neo-­‐‘classical’  realism  embraces  the  role  of  human  agency   of  chief  policy-­‐makers  and  replaces  the  Waltzian  realist  focus  on  international  politics   with  a  focus  on  foreign  policy  or  specific  historical  events.  By  “bringing  the  state  back   in”   it   finds   common   ground   with   the   classical   realist   approach.20  Brian   Rathbun  

                                                                                                                         

19  Their  work  has  also  been  called  the  “next  generation  of  structural  realism”.  (Rathbun,  2008:  296).  

20  Hans  J.  Morgenthau,  Politics  among  Nations:  The  Struggle  for  Power  and  Peace  (New  York:  Alfred  A.  Knopf,  

1948  and  later  editions).  Other  traditional  (classical)  realist  works  are  E.H.  Carr,  The  Twenty  Years’  Crisis,  1919– 1939  (London:  Macmillan,  1946)  and  Reinuld  Niehbur  and  Carl  von  Clausewitz.    

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elaborates  on  the  similarities  with  the  structural  realist  approach  and  argues,  “At  their   core,   all   neoclassical   realists   are   structural   realists   as   well.   It   is   not   what   neoclassical   realism  is  called  but  what  it  does.  A  rose  by  any  other  name  is  still  a  rose.”  (Rathbun,   2008:   297).   The   emergence   of   the   new   realist   approach   is   primarily   based   on   the   inability   of   structural   realism   to   explain   foreign   policy.   The   purpose   of   neoclassical   realists   is   to   “explain   variation   in   the   foreign   policies   of   the   same   state   over   time   or   across  different  states  facing  similar  external  constraints”  (Taliaferro,  2009:  21).  

2.2  The  relevance  of  neoclassical  realism    

   

A  general  conception  of  unit-­‐level  variables  associated  with  neoclassical  realism  is  that   they  should  only  be  added  to  structural-­‐systemic  theories  when  state  behavior  deviates   from  the  expected  outcome  (Schweller,  2003:  346).21  This  condition  is  problematic  for   the   analysis   of   French   military   policy   in   Africa,   since   structural   realist   assumptions   alone  (without  adding  domestic  factors)  are  able  to  explain  France’s  need  to  protect  its   national   interests   on   the   continent,   which   means   that   France’s   behavior   is   not   necessarily  “dysfunctional”  with  regard  to  the  systemic  pressures.  However,  a  structural   realist   explanation   for   France’s   military   policy   would   undermine   its   highly   institutionalised  and  culturally  embedded  ideational  factors,  such  as  its  exceptional  role   as  the  promoter  of  universal  values  and  the  Gaullist  legacy  of  grandeur.  These  factors   cannot  be  ignored  in  the  case  of  French  interventionism  (Bourmaud,  2011:  44).    

  Jeffrey  Taliaferro  on  the  other  hand  claims  that  the  framework  is  also  applicable   in   case   there   is   “little   information   about   the   optimal   types   of   strategies   states   should   pursue   to   respond   to   these   constraints   and   incentives.”   (2009:   283-­‐284).     Since   for   France   the   level-­‐of-­‐threat   posed   by   the   African   crises   to   the   national   interests   are   unambiguous,  an  optimal  policy  response  is  less  clear,  and  therefore  it  is  problematic  to   determine  dysfunctional  behavior.22    For  structural  realists  it  is  obvious  that  states  react  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            However,  classical  realists  explain  international  politics  as  a  result  of  human  nature,  which  means  that  their   level-­‐of-­‐analysis   is   at   the   unit-­‐level,   whereas   neoclassical   realists   treat   systemic   imperatives   as   the   primary   causal  factor  for  state  behavior.  Thus,  classical  realism  -­‐  the  theory  of  which  it  derived  its  name  from  -­‐  is  less   relevant  for  this  study.  

21  “Rather   than   explaining   merely   surprising   deviations   from   structural   realist   expectations,   as   Schweller  

suggests,  we  contend  that  it  is  a  useful  approach  for  understanding  foreign  policy  more  generally.”  Taliaferro,   2009:  283-­‐284)  

22  The   continuation   of   major   military   involvement   could   annoy   African   partners   who   are   tired   of   France’s  

influence  on  the  continent  and  revitalise  neocolonial  accusations.  Also,  military  involvement  in  another  case  as   the   Rwandan   genocide   would   be   catastrophic   for   France’s   reputation,   which   means   that   the   launch   of  

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when   the   national   interests   are   at   stake.   However,   if   systemic   imperatives   provide   unclear   information   about   the   optimal   response,   it   is   up   to   foreign   policymakers  to   choose  the  patterns  and  shape  the  nature  of  the  response  (Kitchen,  2010:  133).        

It   is   here   that   the   neoclassical   realist   framework   offers   a   broad   theoretical   explanatory   range.   First,   it   explains   why   states   should   react   (systemic   pressures)   and   second,   it   incorporates   intervening   domestic   factors   to   explain   how   the   eventual   response   is   formed.     Accordingly,   anarchy   is   a   “permissive   condition,   rather   than   an   independent   causal   force”   and   domestic   factors   “serve   as   an   opaque   filter   through   which   systemic   imperatives   are   filtered.”   (Taliaferro,   2009:   7;   Kitchen,   2010:   133;   Callan,  2011:  17)      

 

Critics  and  responses    

Neoclassical   realism   is   often   criticised   by   non-­‐realist   scholars   who   charge   the   incorporation  of  domestic  and  ideational  variables  as  a  form  of  reductionism.  However,   as  is  stated  in  the  previous  section,  neoclassical  realists  do  not  simply  add  variables  at   the   unit-­‐level   to   fill   a   gap   in   the   anomalies   of   structural   realism.   The   ideational   and   domestic   factors   are   merely   a   guideline   to   understand   how   states   respond   to   international  constraints,  and  are  not  treated  as  having  direct  causal  property  (Rathbun,   2008;   Taliaferro,   2009).   A   second   charge   is   that   neoclassical   realists   undermine   the   theoretical  core  of  the  realist  approach,  which  is  that  states  act  rationally  in  pursuit  of   their   intended   goals   (Vasquez,   1997;   Legro   &   Moravcsik,   1999).   This   notion   of   state   rationality  as  a  key  realist  assumption  is  argued  ungrounded.  Not  all  realists  view  states   as   rational   actors,   including   Hans   Morgenthau   and   Kenneth   Waltz.   This   assumption   should  therefore  not  be  treated  as  an  essential  tenet  of  the  realist  paradigm  (Taliaferro,   2009:   22).   Brian   Rathbun   explains   that   “structural   realism   argues   that   the   system   constraints  but  does  not  determine  state  action  and  where  foreign  policy  departs  from   what  would  be  ideal  behavior  given  a  state’s  structural  position,  domestic  politics  and   ideas  are  generally  the  cause.”  (2008:  294).23  For  this  reason  neoclassical  realism,  that  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            unilateral   military   interventions   should   be   reconsidered   cautiously.   Thus,   a   more   multilateral   approach   and   less  the  attitude  of  chef  de  guerre,  could  have  been  an  alternative  response.  Why  François  Hollande  chose  for   the  role  of  chef  de  guerre  can  be  explained  by  incorporating  the  intervening  unit-­‐level  variables.    

23  According   to   Rose,   world   leaders   have   to   deal   with   the   constraints   of   both   international   and   domestic  

politics,  “but  the  same  is  always  true  of  neorealism.  Therefore,  the  incorporation  of  domestic  politics  and  ideas   in  neorealism  is  not  automatically  theoretically  inappropriate.”  (Rose,  1998:  152).  Also  quoted  in:  (Rathbun,   2008:   306).   Several   neoclassical   realists   refer   on   this   point   to   Jennifer   Sterling-­‐Folker’s   felicitous   phrase:  

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systematically  incorporates  a  state’s  internal  characterics,  is  the  logical  and  necessary   extension  of  structural  realism.    

Furthermore,   Legro   and   Moravcsik   criticise   the   lack   of   predictive   power   and   theoretical  rigor  that  is  caused  by  the  inclusion  of  both  systemic  and  domestic  variables   (1999:   27-­‐34).   However,   parsimony   must   always   be   balanced   against   explanatory   power,   and   it   is   there   that   neoclassical   realism   performs   relatively   well   compared   to   other   international   relations   theories   (Taliaferro,   2001:   158).   After   all,   “theoretical   ‘degeneration’   [does   not   hinder]   (…)   our   understanding   of   real-­‐world   phenomena.”   (Taliaferro,  2001:  158).  Finally,  critics  might  argue  that  neoclassical  realism  violates  the   structural   logic   by   incorporating   unit-­‐level   variables,   which   makes   it   similar   to   a   constructivist  approach  (Legro  &  Moravcsik,  1999:  21-­‐25).  Neoclassical  realists  reply  to   this   argument   by   emphasising   the   major   disagreements   between   constructivism   and   realism   by  arguing   that   despite   embracing   the   influence   of   domestic   and   ideational   factors   on   the   foreign   policy   outcome,   they   maintain   the   causal   primacy   of   structural   variables  and  that  it  is  their  goal  to  demonstrate  that  “these  constraints  are  real,  even  if   they   are   not   determinate”,   which   is   the   greatest   challenge   for   neoclassical   realism   (Rathbun,  2008:  319).        

When  it  comes  to  existing  literature  on  France’s  Africa  policy  since  the  fall  of  the   colonial   empire   in   the   1960s,   and   in   particular   on   French   interventionism   on   the   continent,  there  is  a  lack  of  literature  that  embraces  a  neoclassical  realist  framework.24   It  is  there  this  study  seeks  to  provide  a  (modest)  contribution  to  the  already  abundant   existing  literature  on  the  subject.    

2.3  Academic  literature  on  France’s  Africa  policy  since  1960  

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            “Actors  are  free  to  act  as  they  wish,  pursue  any  goal  they  desire,  and  to  allow  their  interests  and  behaviors  to   be  determined  by  the  processes  in  which  they  are  engaged.  They  are  also  free  to  die  but  it  is  the  choices  they   have  made  vis-­‐à  vis  themselves  and  others  that  determine  that  outcome,  not  anarchy  itself”  (Sterling-­‐Folker:   1996:  19)  in  (Rathbun,  2008:  311;  Chafer  &  Cumming,  2011:  17).    

24  Apart  from  the  study  on  Anglo-­‐French  security  cooperation  in  Africa  by  Gordon  Cumming  and  Tony  Chafer,  

the  neoclassical  realist  approach  has  not  (yet)  been  used  to  provide  a  comprehensive  theoretical  explanation   for  France’s  Africa  policy  (Cumming  &  Chafer,  2011).  Tony  Chafer  contributed  a  useful  geopolitical  analysis  on   François  Hollande’s  Africa  policy,  which  is  explained  by  France’s  security,  strategic  and  economic  interests  and   the   role   of   national   imaginations   held   by   governing   elites   on   foreign   policy   outcomes   (Chafer,   2014:   520).   While  this  study  is  empirically  useful,  it  cannot  be  considered  as  a  blueprint  for  the  neoclassical  framework  in   this  paper,  since  Chafer  treated  the  domestic  and  systemic  factors  as  equally  important  instead  of  appointing   an  intervening  role  to  the  domestic  factors.      

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The   uniqueness   of   France’s   Africa   policy   and   the   remarkable   continuity   of   France’s   military   interventions   in   Africa   have   been   widely   studied   among   both   French   and   Anglophone   scholars.   For   the   sake   of   this   study   the   literature   will   be   divided   into   “systemic”   explanations   and   “ideational”   (domestic)   explanations   for   France’s   Africa   policy.  

 

Realist  explanations    

During  the  Cold  War  it  was  generally  adopted  among  scholars  that  the  continuity  of  the   French   military   activity   in   Africa   was   part   of   a   Gaullist   grand   strategy   of   global   defense.25  President  Charles  De  Gaulle,  whose  foreign  policies  were  strongly  influenced   by   humiliating   military   defeats   in   WW2,   Indochina   and   Algeria,   emphasised   the   necessity  of  France’s  national  independence  and  the  importance  of  sub-­‐Saharan  Africa   for   France’s   relative   power   in   the   international   system.26  Realist   explanations   for   France’s   Africa   policy   are   the   vital   strategic   importance   of   the   continent   for   France’s   relative  power  in  the  international  system  and  the  threat  of  other  external  powers  in  its   exclusive  sphere  of  influence,  either  the  communist  threat  during  the  Cold  War  or  the   increasing   interests   of   the   US,   China   and   other   emerging   powers   since   the   1990s   (Dabezies,  1979;  Chaigneau,  1984:  20  &  2005:  126-­‐7).  However,  ignoring  the  ideational   explanations   would   lead   to   an   incomprehensive   explanation   for   the   French   interventionism  on  the  African  continent:  “If  it  is  cut  off  from  its  cultural  and  ideological   pillars,  France’s  Africa  policy  simply  cannot  be  understood”.  (Bourmaud,  2011:  44).            

Ideational  explanations    

The  end  of  the  Cold  War  resulted  in  a  shift  away  from  the  realist  tradition  towards  more   liberal  and  ideational  explanations  for  state  behavior.  The  vital  strategic  importance  of   sub-­‐Saharan   Africa   decreased   significantly   with   the   collapse   of   the   Soviet   Union   and   therefore  the  end  of  the  “communist  threat”  in  Africa.  With  the  changing  international  

                                                                                                                         

25  De   Gaulle,   the   creator   of   the   Fifth   Republic,   emphasised   the   necessity   of   France’s   self-­‐reliance   when   it  

comes  to  its  own  security.  His  Africa  strategy  was  part  of  a  greater  defence  strategy  based  on  three  levels  of   priority:   national   defence,   European   defence   and   a   global   or   “geopolitical”   defence.   The   latter   includes   securitising  French  national  interests  in  the  overseas  territories,  also  known  as  les  Départements  d’Outre  Mêr  /   les  Territoires  d’Outre  Mêr  (DOM-­‐TOM).  

26  After  all,  France  obtained  a  permanent  seat  in  the  UNSC  in  1945  despite  its  significant  decline  of  relative  

power  because  of  the  strategic  importance  of  the  African  continent.  Furthermore,  France’s  nuclear  deterrent   is  dependent  on  African  resources.  Without  the  existence  of  the  deterrent  France’s  rank  in  the  world  would   significantly  drop.      

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security   environment   and   a   number   of   impactful   events   in   the   1990s,   including   the   Rwandan  genocide  in  1994,  the  conventional  wisdom  in  the  literature  moved  away  from   realist   explanations   towards   ideational   explanations.27  According   to   these   scholars,   explanations   for   the   continuity   in   France’s   military   policy   in   Africa   are   to   be   found   in   France’s  colonial  legacy  and  the  French  identity,  which  is  based  on  exceptionalism  and   republican   values   (Griffin,   2009:   56;   Dumoulin,   1997:   10-­‐19).28  The   role   of   being   responsible  for  global  security  and  human  rights,  also  known  as  the  mission  civilisatrice,   contributes  to  the  notion  of  grandeur  and  nourishes  the  French  obsession  for  its  rank  in   the   international   system   compared   to   other   states.29     This   foreign   policy   of   grandeur   was  implemented  and  actively  promoted  by  Charles  De  Gaulle:  “Toute  ma  vie,  je  me  suis   fait  une  certaine  idée  de  la  France.  Le  sentiment  me  l’inspire  aussi  bien  que  la  raison.   (…)   Bref,   à   mon   sens,   la   France   ne   peut   être   la   France   sans   la   grandeur.”   (De   Gaulle,   1954:  7)  30                 It   is   important   to   mention   that   the   public   debate   from   the   1990s   was   largely   dominated   the   activist   organisations   Agir   ici   and   Survie,   which   heavily   criticised   the   foundations   of   France’s   Africa   policy   and   accused   the   government   of   neocolonial   practices   (keeping   Francophone   Africa   economically   and   politically   dependent)   as   a   strategy   to   maintain   the  French  grandeur  and  rayonnement  (Griffin,  2009:  32).33    The  work  of  Glaser,  Smith   and  Verschave  and  their  critique  on  la  Françafrique,  the  formal  and  informal  networks   that  were  left  behind  after  decolonisation,  were  politically  biased  but  represented  the   general   opinion   of   the   controversial   character   of   France’s   African   policy   and   shared   common  ground  with  more  objective  analyses  regarding  the  influence  of  ideas  rooted  in  

                                                                                                                         

27  Most  scholars,  especially  among  French  scholars,  treat  ideational  factors  as  determinate  for  France’s  Africa  

Policy  and  refute  the  importance  of  systemic  pressures.  However,  a  number  of  scholars  (for  example  Chipman,   1989:   6-­‐30;   Domergue,   1998:   118-­‐119;   Pascallon:   2004;   Bourmaud:   2004.   Quoted   in   Griffin,   2009:   45)   do   include  both  realist  and  ideational  interests/  power  elements  (prestige;  the  exceptional  role  as  promotor  of   universal  values,  including  human  rights;  and  strong  personalities,  as  is  exemplified  by  De  Gaulle).  Although   providing   useful   empirical   work   and   analyses,   their   explanations   have   become   theoretically   reductionist   by   treating   domestic   and   systemic   factors   as   equally   important   (they   both   have   direct   causal   property).John   Chipman   for   example   argued   that   France’s   Africa   policy   was   based   on   both   geopolitical   /   material   power   elements  –  France’s  veto  on  the  UNSC  and  its  nuclear  deterrent  and  the  ideational  power  elements  mentioned   above  (Chipman,  1989:  6-­‐30).    

28  This   mind-­‐set   among   political   leaders   finds   its   origins   in   the   French   Revolution   and   is   still   existent   in   a  

modified  form,  200  years  later  (Chafer,  2014:  524)    

29  The  events  of  the  1990s  and  the  increasing  interest  in  humanitarianism  also  created  an  ambivalent  attitude  

of   France’s   mission   civilsatrice   in   Africa   (Omballa,   2004:   54-­‐55).   For   this   reason   this   study   will   not   use   the   concept  in  the  analysis  of  the  military  interventions  under  François  Hollande’s.    

30  Own  translation:  All  my  life  I  have  had  a  certain  idea  of  France.  Both  sentiments  and  reason  inspire  me  (…)  In  

sum,  France  cannot  be  France  without  greatness.    

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