Climate Test Bed (CTB) and CPC/CTB-RISA Program
Briefing to Dan Walker Chief, CASD
CPO
November 12, 2009 Fiona Horsfall
Director, Climate Test Bed
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Advancing Climate Prediction:
The Climate Test Bed
• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office
• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities
Mission
• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Mission
• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas
– CFS Improvements
– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems – Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program
• CTB Seminar Series
• CPC/CTB - RISA Program
• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY10)
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas
– CFS Improvements
– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems – Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program
• CTB Seminar Series
• CPC/CTB - RISA Program
• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY10)
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CTB Basic Structure
• Announcement of Opportunity (AO)
• NCEP collaborators for projects
• LOI / Proposals
• Links to NIDIS CRM
• Proposal / grants process managed by CPO (Jin Huang)
• 1/3 NCEP research computer
– Projects
– Balance available for internal experiments
• Announcement of Opportunity (AO)
• NCEP collaborators for projects
• LOI / Proposals
• Links to NIDIS CRM
• Proposal / grants process managed by CPO (Jin Huang)
• 1/3 NCEP research computer
– Projects
– Balance available for internal experiments
• Oversight Board
• Science Advisory Board
• Oversight Board
• Science Advisory Board
• Steering Committee
– To provide guidance and knowledge on CTB
issues
– Contribute to setting priorities
• Steering Committee
– To provide guidance and knowledge on CTB
issues
– Contribute to setting priorities
New Terms of Reference
(under development)
Moving 2012?
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Climate Test Bed
Currently Funded Projects
• 10 ongoing projects
– 1 transitioned in FY08/9
– 1 approaching transition (not funded for FY09) – 1 identified as unsuitable for transition FY08 – 3 for transition in FY09
– 4 for transition in FY10
• FY09
– 3 new starts
– Support for NIDIS pilot project CPC/OHD/CBRFC – Support for post doc at COLA to evaluate GFDL
model for MME
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Focus Area:
CFS Improvements
Focus areas
• Dynamics
• Physics
• Coupled Ocean
Atmosphere Land
Cryosphere Focus areas
• Dynamics
• Physics
• Coupled Ocean
Atmosphere Land
Cryosphere
• CFS V1 (Aug 2004)
– Atmosphere & ocean DA – Real time 9-month forecasts – 25 years of hindcasts
• CFS V2 (Jan 2010)
– CFS Reanalysis & Reforecast (CFSRR) project (ongoing) – Coupled O-A-L-Sea Ice DA
1979-2009
– Coupled reforecasts initialized from coupled reanalysis, 1981-2009
• CFS V1 (Aug 2004)
– Atmosphere & ocean DA – Real time 9-month forecasts – 25 years of hindcasts
• CFS V2 (Jan 2010)
– CFS Reanalysis & Reforecast (CFSRR) project (ongoing) – Coupled O-A-L-Sea Ice DA
1979-2009
– Coupled reforecasts initialized from coupled reanalysis, 1981-2009
Goal
To accelerate improvements of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate predictions for decision making.
Goal
To accelerate improvements of the Climate Forecast System
(CFS) for use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate
predictions for decision making.
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Focus Area:
Multi-Model Ensembles
Goal
A multi model ensemble prediction system that leverages the best national and international models for improved predictions on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales
Goal
A multi model ensemble prediction system that leverages the best national and international models for improved predictions on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales
Activities
• Consolidation techniques
• Verification
• MME Prediction System
– International MME (NCEP, EUROSIP Models) – National MME (NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR)
• Developing strategy / white paper
• Post-doc at COLA to evaluate MME with GFDL and NCEP
Activities
• Consolidation techniques
• Verification
• MME Prediction System
– International MME (NCEP, EUROSIP Models) – National MME (NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR)
• Developing strategy / white paper
• Post-doc at COLA to evaluate MME with GFDL and NCEP
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Climate Forecast Products
Goal
To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state-of-the-art science and research.
– Relationships with partners – Delivery of useful products
– Continuous flow of user requirements – Strong research component
Goal
To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state-of-the-art science and research.
– Relationships with partners – Delivery of useful products
– Continuous flow of user requirements – Strong research component
Activities
• Forecast Evaluation Tool
– Forecast evaluation; data access and display capability
• GIS in GRADS
• Drought (NIDIS) products
• Through CPC/CTB-RISA collaboration
• Extreme events products
• Regional applications
• User identification / needs / feedback
Activities
• Forecast Evaluation Tool
– Forecast evaluation; data access and display capability
• GIS in GRADS
• Drought (NIDIS) products
• Through CPC/CTB-RISA collaboration
• Extreme events products
• Regional applications
• User identification / needs / feedback
CTB Seminar Series For 2008-2009
Schedule of Speakers
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Looking Ahead: Proposed Activities
• Expand CPC/CTB-RISA Program
– POCs to new RISAS
– Targeted products/regional applications
• Visiting Scientist Program (VSP)
• Model Test Facility (MTF)
• Climate and Health: links to Oceans and Human Health Initiative (OHHI)
• Coasts, Marine Spatial Planning, Ecosystems, Air Quality, Water, Arctic, etc.
– What are climate information needs for delivery
systems?
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CPC/CTB-RISA Program
• “White Paper” outlined strategy for working with partners FY08
• Workplans developed for Points of Contact (POC) at CPC to work with RISA counterparts
• Accomplishments (selected)
– Several NIDIS activities, including engaging the NIDIS community to share objective drought monitoring products
– Developed the Multimodal Surface Water Monitor to improve drought monitoring (U. Washington)
– Post-doc at CPC for 4 weeks to use CFS datasets for research on cotton yield forecasts over the southeastern US (SECC)
– Updated the Pacific Rainfall Atlas, “A Precipitation Climatology for Stations in the Tropical Basin; Effects of ENSO” for publication (Pacific RISA)
– Identified western region users for feedback on ENSO products (WWA)
– Collaboration on storm track monitoring and outreach (ACCAP)
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CPC/CTB-RISA Program
• Seed funding from CPO RISA Program
– $25K – FY07 – $35K – FY08
• FY09 – expanded program to incorporate CTB
– CPO funding increased ($60K) to support CTB and CPC/CTB-RISA Program activities
– Focus: Improving CPC (NWS) Products and
Services in Partnership with the External
Community
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CPC/CTB-RISA Program
• Activities supported FY09
– Engaging the external community in collaboration with RISAs in the development of CPC products and services
• CPASW (~$10K)
• AASC
• Climate Working Group (program discussion)
• CR Regional Climate Services Development meeting
• Hydrometeorological Test Bed meeting in SE US
• Sponsorship to support outreach
– Hawaii Conservation Conference
– AMS Applied Climatology Committee Short Course Datasets
for Use in Climate Applications: Access, Use and Tools• Mini-Proposals (~$30K)
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