CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

February, 2011

Background

– CPC Within NCEP

– Ongoing CPC Activities

– Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances – CPC Forecast Operations

– NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

Outline

CPC within NCEP

CPC Mission CPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings

rankings

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e.

(i.e. short term climate short term climate ) )

• Forecasts in collaboration with other Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs

agencies and labs

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products

Products

We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and

the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

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Climate/Weather Linkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty

Minutes Minutes

Hours Hours

DaysDays 1 Week 1 Week

2 Week 2 Week

Months Months

Seasons Seasons

Years Years

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert Coordination Coordination Watches Watches Forecasts Forecasts Threats Assessments

Guidance Guidance Outlook Outlook

Benefits

TPC OPC

HPC

SWPC AWC

SPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8

:

NDFD, Days 4 -7 6-10 Day Forecast

MaritimeMaritimeMaritimeMaritime

Life & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & Property Space OperationsSpace OperationsSpace OperationsSpace Operations RecreationRecreationRecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystemEcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment

Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture

Reservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir Control Energy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy Planning

CommerceCommerceCommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropowerHydropowerHydropower

Fire WeatherFire WeatherFire WeatherFire Weather HealthHealthHealthHealth

AviationAviationAviationAviation

Seasonal Predictions

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond &

Feedback Respond &

Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer

Gaithersburg, MD

Distribute Distribute

Observe Observe

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource

Planning, Transportation, Health organizations

(CDC…)

NCEP

Feedback

- Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

Central Guidance

Central

Guidance Local

Offices Local Offices

Ongoing CPC Activities

Climate Prediction Products

• Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual

 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

 Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

 Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

 Seasonal Drought Outlook

 Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern

Pacific)

 Monthly ENSO Prediction

* Dynamical Models

• Climate Forecast System

• Global Forecast System

• ECMWF

Tools used to develop prediction products

• Dynamical Models

• Statistical Models

• Historical Analogs

• Historical Composites

Outlook Verification

• CPC provides real-time gridded verification of its official

outlooks

- downloadable archive - observations

- performance metrics

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php

NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Climate Monitoring Products

• Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and

current atmospheric and oceanic conditions

– Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)

– Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Storm Tracks and Blocking – Monsoons

– Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)

– Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US)

– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Monitor:

Atmospheric, oceanic & land surface conditions across time scales

Assess :

Hazards (droughts and floods) Seasonal Intensity

Variability (linkages to ENSO, MJO, etc)

Predict :

Week-1, week-2, monthly and seasonal rainfall Lifecycle: onset, maintenance and demise Monsoon indices

Monitoring & Prediction of Monsoon

Systems Worldwide

Climate Assessment Products

• Synthesis of current weather and climate

information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis

– Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)

– ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)

– Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)

– Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)

– Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) – Annual Climate Assessment

(multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)

– Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics)

Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

Selected Other Climate Services at CPC

• Joint Agriculture Weather Facility

• USDA – DOC partnership

– Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

– Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions

• CPC International Desks

• Professional development training to African Meteorologists

• WMO partnership for regional and global activities

• Lead Famine Early Warning System

Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan

• Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring

• International Monsoon Forecaster Training

Training Coverage in Africa

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Applied Climate Research

(Science and Service Integration)

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Linking Weather and Climate Linking Weather and Climate

Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods

Change in weather event amplitude and

frequency

Global change Trends

Change in climate event amplitude and

frequency

Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet Patterns Blocking

Teleconnections

Climate Change Climate

Change

Weather

Weather Climate

Variability Climate Variability

Motivation:

Climate Change is manifested as changes in the number and intensity of weather extremes that have significant human impacts, thus posing a serious challenge to society.

How do climate variations and climate change affect weather events and vice-versa?

Climate Modeling and

Prediction Advances

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP

Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model

 Version 1 operational since Aug 2004

 Version 2 operational in Mar 2011

 CFSv2 Reanalysis & Reforecasts (1979-present)

Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O)

 CFSv3 improvements

 Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems

 Linking SI & Decadal Modeling & Prediction

 CPC-CTB-RISA Program;

Regional Climate Information

Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R)

CFS (v1) Implemented

Climate Test Bed spin up

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Attribute CFSv1 (Operational ) CFSv2 (Upgrade)

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model

(LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995

analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Upgrade (Mar 11)

CFSv2 Reanalysis

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CFSv2 Capability to Recreate Decadal Temperature Trend

OBS

Observed

temperature trend CTRL

Coupled

atmosphere-ocean 50 year run with constant CO2 CO2

Observed CO2 and

aerosols in both

troposphere and

stratosphere

Comparison of Predictive Skill for CFSv2 vs CFSv1 For MJO Principle Components 1 and 2

CFSv1 & CFSv2 PC1 & PC2

Impending Domination of

Ensemble Based Model Systems

• Climate: Climate Multi-Model Ensemble – NCEP Climate Forecast System +

GFDL Climate Model

• Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts – WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM

• Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

– GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS

Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS

Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period

(7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)

Summary Summary

CPC

• Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products

• Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products

• Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success

• Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

CSPM F2F Meeting

February 11, 2010

NCEP Contributions to Implement The Climate Service

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• FY11 Priority Areas

– Science

– Predictions and Projections – Observations

– Data

– Monitoring

– Science and Services – Partnerships

– Regional

– Communication – Assessments – Attribution

• Focus on Execution

– NCEP FY11 AOP activities – Integration/ Redirection

• NCEP FY11 Headlines

– Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR) – Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP)

– Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal

• Predictions and Projections

– Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations

• Monitoring

– NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit

• Science and Services

– “Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate” needs assessment

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Actions Planned

• Improve statistical and dynamical forecast models, tools and techniques

• Issue operational climate outlooks Milestones

• FY11Q4: Develop & test a seasonal MME forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP

• FY11Q3: Evaluate prediction of sea-ice in CFSv2

• FY11Q3: Assess prediction skill for week2 to week4 in the CFSv2

• FY11Q3: Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks

• FY11Q4: Develop new metric based on extended range and seasonal forecasts

• FY11Q3: Establish International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk

Predictions and Projections

Task: Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations Objective: Improve scientific understanding

Performance Measures: US Seasonal Temperature Forecasts Core Capability : Understanding and Modeling

Societal Challenge: Climate Impacts on Water Resources; Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate

Target: 21.0 Actual: 21.4 Target: 21.0 Actual: 21.4

Risk:

• Implement MOA, CONOPS and AOP milestones between NWS and CS for CFS development, execution, archive and (real-time) delivery

Mitigating Risk:

• MOA, CONOPS currently under development

Actions Planned

• Enhance coordination of climate monitoring activities across NOAA, including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach

Milestones

• FY11Q1: Lead Climate Monitoring Summit

• FY11Q2: Complete CMS Report, including inventory, and monitoring definition

• FY11Q1-Q4:Provide support for the expansion of the NOAA Climate Portal

• FY11Q3: Complete satellite-gauge merged precipitation analysis

• FY11Q4: Update A-O-L climatologies from 1971- 2000 to 1981-2010 base period

Monitoring

Objective: Improve scientific understanding

Performance Measures: Number of monitoring products incorporated into the ECV-based analysis tool Task: NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit Report, including inventory, definition and recommendations Core Capability : Observing Systems, Data Stewardship and Climate Monitoring

Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate; Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Target: X products Actual: Y products Target: X products Actual: Y products

Risk

• Stand up Climate Monitoring Working Group to implement CMS recommendations

Mitigating Risk

• Briefs to CS Corporate Board, NOSC and NEP/NEC to request help in standing up CMWG

Name of Product US Precipitation Anomalies & Accumulation

Deliverer ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Assessment / Presentation method Online Maps

Data sets drawn upon GTS, SHEF, HADS, SNOTEL User access to deeper archive Not apparent (real-time only) Observing systems utilized

Update Frequency Daily

Latency 1 day

Geographic Scope CONUS

In Existence Since

Period of Record 1995-2009

Normal / Baseline average period Unknown Time resolution

Spatial resolution

Units Percent of Normal

Variance / Uncertainty Not apparent

Intended or Apparent user base Agriculture, Water Management Uniqueness within this ECV / Category

Scope of scientific vetting Internal assessment

NOAA Climate Services Portal

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• One-stop access for NOAA’s climate

information

• Multiple audiences so multiple avenues to access information

– ClimateWatch Magazine – Data and Services

– Understanding Climate – Education

– Climate Dashboard

www.climate.gov

Actions Planned

• Identify FY11 deliverables (for AOP)

• Coordinate the team of people & execution

• Needs Assessment process focused initially on CFSv2 user needs

• Develop storyline for needs assessment and societal challenge for the FY2011 initial focus within a broader perspective of information needs

Milestones

• FY11 Q2: Establish small team for WxCx Societal Challenge

• FY11Q2: Administer Changes in Extremes of Wx and Cx Needs Assessment data collection for users of CFS (Data Collection)

• FY11Q2: Hold CFSv2 Needs Assessment Workshop with focus group of representative internal and external users (Data Collection)

• FY11Q3: CFS “White Paper” with findings and interpretation, including defining needs and proposed means to fill gaps (Data Analysis)

• FY11Q4: Incorporate Requirements for CFSv2 into CS and NWS FY12 AOP

Science and Services

Objective: Science and Services

Task: Complete an initial Needs Assessment for Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate Core Capability : Integrated Service Development and Decision Support

Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate

Target: X Actual: Y Target: X Actual: Y

Risk

• How to tap NOAA's close partners such as the RISAs, RCCs and state climatologists?

Mitigating Risk

CPC Top Priorities

1. Climate Outlooks

Objectives: Provide extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks over the US; Provide seasonal outlooks for hurricane activity, droughts, & ENSO

2. Climate Monitoring

Objectives: Monitor atmospheric, oceanic and land surface climate variability 3. Climate Assessments

Objectives: Provide assessments & attribution of weather & climate anomalies on ISI timescales 4. Interagency and International Commitments

Objectives: Enhance partnership with USDA for Joint Agriculture Weather Facility; Sustain and enhance CPC International Desks (Africa Desk, Monsoon Desk)

5. Climate Test Bed

Objectives: Accelerate transition of climate research advances to operations (CFS improvements; MME prediction systems; climate products)

6. Data Base Management

Objectives: Maintain, develop, and backup, data bases critical to CPC prediction and monitoring activities 7. Computer Systems, Information Technology, and Operational Reliability

Objectives: Maintain CPC computing and IT infrastructure and provide support for CPC’s operational products

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National Weather Service:

Collaborating on Climate

Services

Goals/Objective

 Support CS vision/mission

 Key challenges:



Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions



Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs



User engagement



User requirements and service delivery



Preparedness vs Adaptation



Training/education of workforce

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Climate

Responsibilities of NWS and CS

Societal Action Dominates Personal Action Dominates

Low Freq of Information Long Lifetime of Product High Freq of Information

Short Lifetime of Product

NWS Climate Responsibilities

Deliver climate prediction, monitoring , and assessment products and services to support response and preparedness , including related applied research and modeling to improve capabilities

Understand and predict the influences of climate on weather events to deliver seamless prediction

Mission: More short-term response and preparedness (i.e. non permanent actions to respond to and prepare for infrequent threats such as, floods, hurricanes, El Niño).

Early warning; more accurate information;

less uncertainty

Shared Strategic Challenges

Improved understanding and ability to simulate and predict the relationship between climate variation and extreme events

NWS monitoring and assessment of variability will provide information to CS assessments of decadal climate change

CS assessments of climate change forcing of variability will provide information to NWS predictions

CS

Provide assessment services and projections, and research to improve predictions and projections

Mission: More long term adaptation and mitigation related (e.g. Are floods affecting a community more frequently? Are they more intense? What actions can be taken?)

CS also addresses mitigation of climate change, a distinct difference between NCS and NWS