CPC Monthly Climate Review

(1)

CPC Monthly Climate Review

August 2014

Yan Xue Outline:

1. Global Patterns

2. Tropical Climate Variability

ENSO, MJO, IOD, TAV, Hurricane Season 3. Extra-Tropical Climate Variability

PDO, NAO, Ozone Hole, Monsoon

1. U.S. Climate, Outlooks and Verifications

Thanks to Anthony Artusa, Mingyue Chen/Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Pingping Xie, Muthu Chelliah,

Caihong Wen, Matthew Rosencrans, Michelle L’Heureux, Jon Gottschalck, Wei Shi, Scott Weaver

(2)

1. Global Patterns

(3)

SST Anomaly ( ⁰ C) and Anomaly Tendency

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml DMI= -0.7

PDO= +0.3

ENSO-neutral

MDR below-normal

(4)

Upper 300m Heat Content Anomaly (

⁰

C) and Anomaly Tendency

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html -DMI

PDO?

Favourable for El Nino

(5)

N. Atlantic below-normal Unfavourable for hurricane

E. Pac. above-normal

favourable for hurricane

(6)

Longitude-Depth Temperature Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency in 1 ^O S-1 ^O N

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html

(7)

OLR and 850mb Wind Anomalies

(8)

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) and E-P Anomaly

From Pingping Xie suppressed

precipitation

enhanced

precipitation

(9)

ENSO

2. Tropical Climate Variability

(10)

SST Indices

(11)

SOI < 0: El Nino-Like SOI > 0: La Nina-Like

OLR < 0: El Nino-Like OLR > 0: La Nina-Like u850 < 0: El Nino favorable

u850 > 0: La Nina favorable

SOI, Winds and OLR Indices

(12)

Weekly ENSO Update

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr

ecip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

(13)

Depth of 20C Isotherm Anomaly (2S-2N, GODAS)

850mb Zonal Wind Anomaly

(5S-5N, NCEP R1)

(14)

Tropical Pacific Observing System

(15)

Real-Time Multiple Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html)

(16)

Upper 300m Heat Content Anomaly (1981-2010 Clim.)

(17)

Warm Water Volume Index Derived

From Ensemble Mean of Ocean Reanalyses

- Warm Water Volume averaged in Jul-Aug 2014 is similar to that in Jul-Aug of 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012.

JA 82 JA 97

JA 14 JA 02

JA 91 JA 06 JA 09

JA 86

JA 04 JA 12

(18)

Aug 2004

(DJF NINO3.4=+0.6)

Aug 2014 Aug 2006

(DJF NINO3.4=+0.7) Aug 2009

(DJF NINO3.4=+1.6)

Aug 2012

(DJF NINO3.4=-0.6)

(19)

86/87 02/03 04/05

06/07 09/10

Upper 300m Heat Content Anomaly Averaged in 5S-5N

12/13 14/15

14/15

(20)

20

(21)

21

too warm forecast Good forecast

(22)

22

(23)

NINO3.4 Forecast Plums

(24)

MJO

2. Tropical Climate Variability

(25)

850-hPa Vector Wind Anomalies (m s ^-1 )

Note that shading denotes the zonal wind anomaly

Blue shades: Easterly anomalies

Red shades: Westerly anomalies

Westerly anomalies increased over Africa and persisted over the tropical Atlantic.

Westerly anomalies increased north of the equator over the eastern Pacific, with weak anomalies on the equator.

Monsoon flow increased over South Asia.

Weak easterly anomalies

spread across the west-

central Pacific.

(26)

200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (5°S-5°N)

Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation

Time

Longitude

A slow eastward progression of negative anomalies was observed from January to present across the Indo-Pacific warm pool and central Pacific (red box).

During February through April, anomalies

propagated eastward with time associated with the MJO before weakening for much of May.

The pattern became more organized during June with a more coherent wave-1 MJO-like structure with eastward propagation.

The pattern became less coherent during July and August as other modes of subseasonal tropical variability, e.g., equatorial Rossby and Kelvin wave activity, became the more dominant signals.

More recently, the signal strengthened with some

eastward propagation.

(27)

CFSv2 Precipitation Forecast

(28)

CFSv2 850mb Wind Forecast

(29)

IOD, TAV, Hurricane

2. Tropical Climate Variability

(30)

Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices

Fig. I1a. Indian Ocean Dipole region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies (

^O

C) for the SETIO [90ºE-110ºE, 10ºS-0] and WTIO [50ºE-70ºE, 10ºS-10ºN]

regions, and Dipole Mode Index, defined as differences between WTIO and SETIO. Data are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 base period means.

- Negative DMI enhanced in August.

(31)

Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices

Fig. A1a. Tropical Atlantic Variability region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies (ºC) for the TNA [60ºW-30ºW, 5ºN-20ºN], TSA [30ºW-10ºE, 20ºS-0] and ATL3 [20ºW-0, 2.5ºS-2.5ºN] regions, and Meridional Gradient Index, defined as differences between TNA and TSA. Data are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 base period means.

- Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index was negative since Jan 2014.

- Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) index continued to be near-normal .

- Meridional Gradient Mode (TNA-TSA) remained negative.

- Negative ATL3 SSTA strengthened in Aug. 2014.

(32)

(33)

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Counts

(http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane)

- Atlantic Outlook (Aug update):

7-12 Named Storms (12 average) 3-6 Hurricanes (6 average)

0-2 Major Hurricanes (3 average)

(34)

- E. Pacific Counts by Sep 6:

15 Named Storms 3 Hurricanes

7 Major Hurricanes

2014 E. Pacific Hurricane Counts

(http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane)

- E. Pacific Outlook (50% above-normal):

14-20 Named Storms (15 average)

7-11 Hurricanes (8 average)

3-6 Major Hurricanes (4 average)

(35)

# Name Date Win

d Pres Cat 1 Hurricane-4 AMANDA 22-29 MAY 135 4 2 Tropical Storm BORIS 02-04 JUN 35 - 3 Hurricane-4 CRISTINA 09-15 JUN 130 4 4 Tropical Storm DOUGLAS 28 JUN-05 JUL 40 - 5 Tropical Storm ELIDA 30 JUN-02 JUL 45 - 6 Tropical Storm FAUSTO 07-09 JUL 40 - 7 Tropical Storm WALI 17-19 JUL 40 - 8 Hurricane-5 GENEVIEVE 25 JUL-11 AUG 140 5 9 Hurricane-1 HERNAN 26-29 JUL 65 1 10 Hurricane-4 ISELLE 31 JUL-09 AUG 120 4 11 Hurricane-3 JULIO 04-15 AUG 105 3 12 Hurricane-1 KARINA 13-27 AUG 70 1 13 Hurricane-1 LOWELL 18-24 AUG 65 1 14 Hurricane-5 MARIE 22-29 AUG 140 5

15 Hurricane-3 NORBERT 02-07 SEP 105 3 Active

The strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in May

the strongest tropical cyclone on record to strike the Big Island of Hawaii

(36)

3. Extra-Tropical Climate Variability

PDO, NAO, Ozone Hole, Monsoon

(37)

PDO index

- Pacific Decadal Oscillation is defined as the 1^st EOF of monthly ERSST v3b in the North Pacific for the period 1900- 1993. PDO index is the standardized projection of the monthly SST anomalies onto the 1st EOF pattern.

- The PDO index differs slightly from that of JISAO, which uses a blend of UKMET and OIv1 and OIv2 SST.

- PDO has been in positive

phase since Mar 2014, and PDO

index = +0.3 in August 2014.

(38)

NAO and SST Anomaly in North Atlantic

Fig. NA2. Monthly standardized NAO index (top) derived from monthly standardized 500-mb height anomalies obtained from the NCEP CDAS in 20ºN-90ºN (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Time-Latitude section of SST anomalies averaged between 80ºW and 20ºW (bottom). SST are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 base period means.

- NAO was well below-normal , with NAO= -2.3 in August 2014.

- Large positive SST anomaly presented near the east coast of Canada and Norwegian Sea.

- High-latitude North Atlantic SSTA are reversely related to NAO index (negative NAO coincides with

to SST warming).

(39)

From Craig Long

(40)

The black line highlights the -78C isotherm.

Temps colder than -78C are required to form

polar stratospheric clouds upon which solar

driven ozone depletion occurs.

(41)

• India 2104 summer monsoon rainfall, so far this season (since 1

^st

June) is about 11% BELOW normal. This is much

improved compared to about 45% below normal earlier in the season.

Recent Heavy rains, Floods and mudslides in northern India in

Kashmir region. (1-7 Sep.

2014).

Forecast anom Observed anom

From Muthu Chelliah

(42)

4. U.S. Climate, Outlooks and Verifications

(43)

U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During

the Last 30 Days the Last 30 Days

End Date: 31 August 2014

Percent of Average Precipitation

Temperature Departures

(degree C)

1 of

2

(44)

DROUGHT MONITOR

S LS LS LS S S LLLS LS LS LS S S S LS S S S S S S S S S S LS LS LS LS S LLS LS LS LS S S S LS S S S S S S S S S S S S L

T heDroughtM onitorfocusesonbroad-scaleconditions.L ocalconditionsm ayvary.S eeaccom panyingtextsum m aryforforecaststatem ents.

L h ttp ://d rough tm on ito r.un l.edu/

U .S .D roughtM onitor

Ju ly29 ,2014 V alid8a.m .E D T (R eleasedT hursday, Jul.31,2014)Intensity:

D 0A bnorm allyD ryD 1M oderateD roughtD 2S evereD roughtD 3E xtrem eD roughtD 4E xceptionalD rought

A uthor:B radR ippey D roughtIm pactTy pes:

S

= S hort-T erm ,typicallylessthan6m onths(e.g.agriculture,grasslands)L

= L ong-T erm ,typicallygreaterthan6m onths(e.g.hydrology,ecology)D elineatesdom inantim pacts

U .S .D epartm entofA gricultur e

- Low water levels are visible

at the Almaden Reservoir on

January 28, 2014 in San

Jose, Calif.

(45)

AUG TEMP AUG PRCP

Sept 2014 Outlook

(46)

SON 2014 Outlook

(47)

(48)

(49)

(50)

(51)

Thanks!

(52)

Global Temperatures

(53)

Global Precipitation

(54)

CPC Monthly Climate Review