MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW MARCH 2014
Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)
500-hPa
CONTENTS
*Tropics
-ENSO [Neutral]
-MJO
*Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice)
*Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks
*Drought
*Selected Weather Events
*Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO)
I. The Tropics
LATEST MONTHLY INDICES
LATEST MONTHLY INDICES
850-hPa Wind
H
Recent
Westerlies, esp.
mid-month
850-hPa Wind
200-hPa Wind
H
H H
SST & Anomalies Subsurface
(6th)
SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region
NMME & inputs
CPC Consolidation CFSv2
CPC/IRI
OLR & Anomalies
MJO (March 17, 31 Overviews)
- MJO remains active with E.P.* entering Indian Ocean; though indicators are increasingly incoherent due to destructive interference with slowly evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions in western Pacific.
- Dynamical model MJO index forecasts diverge considerably for next 2 weeks.
Some models weaken MJO as it interacts with the low frequency base state, while others indicate a more robust Indian Ocean MJO event.
- Statistical models generally favor continued MJO activity.
- MJO favors enhanced (suppressed) convection over western & central Indian Ocean (Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during period; also tending to oppose ongoing convection across the west-central Pacific associated with increasing ocean temperatures.
*E.P. = Enhanced Phase
Longitude
200-hPa Velocity Potential
Anomalies (5°S-5°N)
Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitationMJO strengthens
Faster propagation speeds – atmo Kelvin waves?
Slower propagation
speeds
Little propagation?
Indo- Pacific
warm pool region
Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean
The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no additional eastward propagation of the MJO
signal.
II. The Extra-Tropics (and Sea Ice)
Northern Hemisphere
500-hPa SLP
Southern Hemisphere
500-hPa SLP
Global Temperatures
King Salmon (52F) March 1
(record high)*
*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)
Global Precipitation
ITCZ
E.P.
MJO
S.P.
MJO
E.P. = Enhanced
Phase
S.P. = Suppressed
Phase
Seattle record:
9.44” (254%);
previous: 8.40” (1950)*
*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)
Precipitation
Departures clearly related to orography (much moreso than PNP)
Featureless
Hawaiian Rainfall (March 2014)
Dry start followed by trade wind strengthening
Total PNP (% of normal)
Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)
1.9”
4.0” 3.4”
3.8”
18.7”
54
~135 92 M 160
+
+: 6.46” (March 8-9)
Oahu Forest Nat’l Wildlife Refuge
Sea Ice
Arctic Antarctic
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
*Annual maximum extent on March 21
2014 Arctic max is 5th lowest in record (1978-2014)
*Annual minimum extent on February 23
2014 Antarctic min is 4th highest in record (1978-2014)
-2 -1
L
http://projects.kmi.open.ac.uk/role/moodle/pluginfile.php/712/
mod_page/content/1/u116_2_f004i.jpg
Significant increase in coverage of multi-year ice
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
III. Verification of JFM & March 2014
Outlooks
IV. Drought
March 4 April 1*
* Okay, so data cutoff extends 8 hours into April (12z April 1st) !
DROUGHT MONITOR
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif
Monthly-Average Stream flow
for the month of year Soil Moisture Anomaly
CPC
NLDAS
V. Selected Weather Events
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Gillian_2014_track.png
Track of Cyclone Gillian
March 6-26, 2014 10-min winds: 125 mph
1-min winds: 160 mph Highest Gusts: 180 mph
Minimum SLP: 937 hPa
Java
BaliE. Timor
PNG
Gillian also affected search for missing
Malaysian Airlines Flight 370
X
Christmas Island
Borneo
Sumatra
Java
Gillian
“X”
Approximate location of Christmas Island
(10.5S, 105.6E)
X
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg/459px-Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg
Track of Cyclone Hellen
March 27-April 1, 2014 10-min winds: 145 mph
1-min winds: 155 mph Minimum SLP: 925-hPa
Madagascar Mozambique
Tanzania
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hellen_2014_track.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg/515px-Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg
Explosive Deepening of Cyclone Hellen over the Mozambique Channel
Symmetrical &
Intense CDO (150 miles) Eye: 12 mi
Hazel Landslide/Oso Mudslide in Washington state March 22, 2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oso_landslide_%28WSP%29.png Washington State Patrol
{1500 feet long, 4400 feet wide and 30-40 feet deep}
ACIS
VI. Outlooks for April & AMJ 2014 & MDO
APRIL TEMP APRIL PRCP
AMJ TEMP AMJ PRCP
THE END
??!
http://roflmouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/funny-animal-pictures-cute-duckling-scam.jpg
