Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook
Telecon – 25 November, 2015
• Goal – Provide a seasonal severe weather outlook for
– Tornado (F1 – F5) – Large hail
• Target period - Outlook of activity over MMAJ
issued at the end of February
• Scientific basis - Connections with
– ENSO
– Atlantic SSTs
• Forecast method – Similar to Seasonal surface temperature and precipitation and HSS
outlook, some objective tool that provides the
starting point
• Task: Either develop an objective tool or transition it from the partners (IRI & AOML)
• Nonetheless, still need to do following
– Do a literature survey
– Assemble required data sets (Tornado & hail)
– Develop climatological information (mean; distribution) – Explore connections and predictors Objective tool – Skill assessment
– Develop a process for final outlook
• Questions
– Anomalous probabilities for various categories – Forecast format
• A map like CPC’s seasonal forecast for temp. and precip.
• HSS
– Tools beyond this year (e.g., hybrid empirical-
dynamical prediction based on CFSv2 and NMME)
• Lead
• Timeline
• Milestones
• Tasks
– Do a literature survey
– Assemble required data sets (Tornado & hail) – Develop climatological information (mean;
distribution)
– Explore connections and predictors Objective tool
– Skill assessment
– Develop a process for final outlook
