Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook Telecon – 25 November, 2015

Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook

Telecon – 25 November, 2015

• Goal – Provide a seasonal severe weather outlook for

– Tornado (F1 – F5) – Large hail

• Target period - Outlook of activity over MMAJ

issued at the end of February

• Scientific basis - Connections with

– ENSO

– Atlantic SSTs

• Forecast method – Similar to Seasonal surface temperature and precipitation and HSS

outlook, some objective tool that provides the

starting point

• Task: Either develop an objective tool or transition it from the partners (IRI & AOML)

• Nonetheless, still need to do following

– Do a literature survey

– Assemble required data sets (Tornado & hail)

– Develop climatological information (mean; distribution) – Explore connections and predictors  Objective tool – Skill assessment

– Develop a process for final outlook

• Questions

– Anomalous probabilities for various categories – Forecast format

• A map like CPC’s seasonal forecast for temp. and precip.

• HSS

– Tools beyond this year (e.g., hybrid empirical-

dynamical prediction based on CFSv2 and NMME)

• Lead

• Timeline

• Milestones

• Tasks

– Do a literature survey

– Assemble required data sets (Tornado & hail) – Develop climatological information (mean;

distribution)

– Explore connections and predictors  Objective tool

– Skill assessment

– Develop a process for final outlook