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Preliminary Validation of the SVD-based MAM 2019 Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook

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Preliminary Validation of the SVD-based MAM 2019 Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook

Hui Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

September 4, 2019

1

(2)

Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook For MAM 2019

2

(3)

SVD-based Forecast

3

(4)

75th PCTL 50th PCTL MAM 2019

Active Season

Tornado

4

(5)

OBS OBS

OBS FCST

Anomaly Correlation (AC) Skill = –0.20 (Pattern correlation)

Tornado

5

(6)

OBS OBS

OBS FCST

Hail Day

Anomaly Correlation (AC) Skill = 0.48

(Pattern correlation) 6

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