Statistical Forecast of Seasonal Severe Weather for MAM 2017

• Probability forecast is based on 60 members of CFSv2 forecasts and NOAA’s definitions of below-, near- and above-normal criteria... Pacific Seasonal Hurricane Activity

– Develop climatological information (mean; distribution) – Explore connections and predictors  Objective tool – Skill assessment. – Develop a process for

At T+48 hrs, the shallow trough which was over Mozambican Channel stretching into the eastern parts of the coast of Kenya has shifted northeastward, causing convergence over

At T+24 hrs, the general flow pattern over Southern Africa (South of the Equator) shown by the GFS, ECMWF and UK-MET models indicates a shallow trough lying above the

At T+48 hrs, the trough which was lying above the southern parts of the sub continent has slightly shifted eastward, causing convergence over northeastern South Africa, central

At T+48 hrs, the shallow trough which was lying over southern coast of South Africa has weakened in amplitude rapidly shifting further east to the southern coast of Madagascar, as

At T+24 hrs, the general flow pattern over Southern Africa (South of the Equator) shown by the GFS, ECMWF and UK-MET models indicates a trough to the southeastern coast of the

At T+24 hrs, the general flow pattern over Southern Africa (South of the Equator) shown by the GFS, ECMWF and UK-MET models indicates a well pronounced trough above the