Public support for Vigilantism Haas, N.E.

Citation

Haas, N. E. (2010, November 23). Public support for Vigilantism.

Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), Leiden. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/1887/16171

Version: Not Applicable (or Unknown)

License: Licence agreement concerning inclusion of doctoral thesis in the Institutional Repository of the University of Leiden

Downloaded from: https://hdl.handle.net/1887/16171

Note: To cite this publication please use the final published version (if applicable).

6WXG\GHVLJQDQGSLORW



 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KLVFKDSWHUSUHSDUHVXVIRUDVHFRQGHPSLULFDOVWXG\LQZKLFKMXVWZRUOGWKHRU\ZLOO

EHXVHGDVDWKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNIRUVWXG\LQJSXEOLFVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP(DUOLHU

RQ ZH SUHVHQWHG D YLJLODQWLVP HYHQW VHTXHQFH WKDW FRQVLVWV RI  WKUHH PDLQ HYHQWV D

SUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHDIRUPDOUHVSRQVHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQGYLJLODQWLVP,QWKH

SUHYLRXVFKDSWHUZHH[SDQGHGWKHWKHRUHWLFDOPRGHOZLWKEHOLHI LQDMXVWZRUOG%-: UHDFWLRQVE\DGGLQJDQXPEHURI DYHUVLYHVWDWHVDQGXVHVRI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV7KH

QH[WVWHSLVWRHPSLULFDOO\GHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKLVPRGHOFDQKHOSXVWRSUHGLFWPHDVXUH

DQGH[SODLQSXEOLFVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP:LWKWKLVJRDOLQPLQGZHZLOOSUHVHQWWKH

GHVLJQ RI  DQ HPSLULFDO VWXG\ LQ WKH FXUUHQW FKDSWHU 7KH ÀQGLQJV RI  WKH DFWXDO GDWD

FROOHFWLRQDUHGHVFULEHGLQ&KDSWHU

6RPHRI WKHPDLQFRPSRQHQWVRI WKHGHVLJQZHUHSUHWHVWHGLQDSLORWVWXG\:HZLOO

EULHÁ\UHSRUWWKHUHVXOWVDQGLPSOLFDWLRQVRI WKLVVWXG\DWWKHHQGRI WKHFKDSWHU,Q

UHVSRQVHWRWKHSLORWVWXG\VHYHUDODGMXVWPHQWVZHUHPDGHWRWKHRULJLQDOVWXG\GHVLJQ

EHIRUHFDUU\LQJRXWWKHÀQDOGDWDFROOHFWLRQ7KHGHVLJQDVSUHVHQWHGEHORZLVWKHÀQDO

DGMXVWHGRQH

 %-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH²$VLPSOLÀHGYHUVLRQ

,QDQHODERUDWHWHVWRI WKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFHPRGHOSDUWLFLSDQWVZRXOG

EH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK WKUHH PDLQ HYHQWV DQG DOO LQEHWZHHQ DYHUVLYH VWDWH OHYHOV DQG

XVHV RI  FRJQLWLYH VWUDWHJLHV ZRXOG EH DVVHVVHG ,Q SUDFWLFH KRZHYHU LW LV GLIÀFXOW WR

PHDVXUHDOORI WKHVHUHVSRQVHVZLWKRXWLQWHUIHULQJZLWKQDWXUDOO\RFFXUULQJSURFHVVHV,I  SDUWLFLSDQWVDUHIRULQVWDQFHDVNHGDERXWWKHOHYHORI WKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWHDWÀYHGLIIHUHQW

LQVWDQFHVWKLVFDQLQÁXHQFHWKHLUDFWXDODYHUVLYHVWDWHGXHWRWKHLULQFUHDVHGDZDUHQHVV

RI LW7KHVDPHLVWUXHIRUWKHFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWKDWDUHXVHGWRUHGXFHDYHUVLYHVWDWHV

DVNLQJSHRSOHWRXVHWKHVHVWUDWHJLHVRYHUWO\RQWKUHHGLIIHUHQWRFFDVLRQVPD\DIIHFWWKH

XVHRI VWUDWHJLHVLWVHOI$QRWKHUFRQFHUQLVWKDWDVNLQJSHRSOHDERXWWKHVHWHFKQLTXHV

HVSHFLDOO\ DERXW EODPLQJ RU GHURJDWLQJ D YLFWLP ZLOO PDNH UHVSRQVHV YXOQHUDEOH WR

VRFLDOGHVLUDELOLW\ELDV7RGHDOZLWKDOORI WKHVHLVVXHVZHVLPSOLÀHGWKHPRGHOIRURXU

HPSLULFDOVWXG\E\FRPELQLQJVRPHRI WKHLQWHUPHGLDWHVWHSV7KHRULJLQDOPRGHOLV

SUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHDQGFDQEHFRPSDUHGWRLWVVLPSOLÀHGYHUVLRQLQ)LJXUH7KH

FRPSRQHQWVIURPWKHRULJLQDOPRGHOWKDWDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHVLPSOLÀHGYHUVLRQKDYH

EHHQVKDGHGLQERWKÀJXUHV

7KH ÀUVW SDUW RI  WKH RULJLQDO PRGHO UHPDLQV LQWDFW LQ WKH DGDSWHG YHUVLRQ

5HVSRQGHQWV DUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D SUHFLSLWDWLQJ HYHQW WKDW LV H[SHFWHG WR LQGXFH DQ

DYHUVLYHVWDWHOHYHOZKLFKLVVXEVHTXHQWO\DVVHVVHG:HZLOODOVRPHDVXUHWKHH[WHQW

WRZKLFKUHVSRQGHQWVXVHFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWRUHGXFHWKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWH7KHSKDVH

RI PHDVXULQJWKHVXFFHVVRI WKHVHVWUDWHJLHVDYHUVLYHVWDWHOHYHOLQRULJLQDOPRGHO LV VNLSSHG 1H[W VXEMHFWV DUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D YLJQHWWH LQ ZKLFK LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW

WKHIRUPDOUHVSRQVHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQGWKHVXEVHTXHQWDFWRI YLJLODQWLVPLV

FRPELQHG3HRSOH·VDYHUVLYHVWDWHDIWHUÀQGLQJRXWDERXWWKHIRUPDOUHVSRQVHOHYHO



3UHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

)RUPDOUHVSRQVHWR

SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

9LJLODQWLVP

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

6XSSRUWIRU YLJLODQWLVP

3UHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

)RUPDOUHVSRQVHWR

SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

 9LJLODQWLVP

6XSSRUWIRU YLJLODQWLVP

)LJXUH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH 

 RULJLQDO

)LJXUH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH

 VLPSOLÀHG



LQRULJLQDOPRGHOLVQRWPHDVXUHGQRUWKHVXEVHTXHQWXVHRI VWUDWHJLHVDQGLWVHIIHFW

RQ WKHLU DYHUVLYH VWDWH OHYHO  LQ RULJLQDO PRGHO 7KH QH[W PHDVXUHPHQW WKDW WDNHV

SODFHLVSHRSOH·VDYHUVLYHVWDWHDWOHYHODIWHUWKHYLJLODQWLVPDFW/DVWO\ZHDJDLQDVVHVV

WKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKUHVSRQGHQWVXVHFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWRUHGXFHWKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWH

WKLVWLPHLQUHVSRQVHWRYLJLODQWLVP7KHVHODVWWZRPHDVXUHVWRJHWKHUFRQVWLWXWHRXU

DVVHVVPHQWRI VXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP

7KH ÀUVW PHDVXUHV LH DYHUVLYH VWDWH OHYHO  DQG WKH XVH RI  FRJQLWLYH VWUDWHJLHV

DIWHUWKHÀUVWYLJQHWWHIXQFWLRQDVDPDQLSXODWLRQFKHFN$VVHVVLQJSHRSOH·VUHVSRQVHWR

WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWJLYHVDQLQGLFDWLRQRI WKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLWHYRNHVDQDYHUVLYH

VWDWH,I RXUPHWKRGRORJ\LVVXFFHVVIXOSHRSOHVKRXOGH[SHULHQFHDQDYHUVLYHVWDWHDIWHU

UHDGLQJDERXWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQGZLOOEHPRWLYDWHGWRUHGXFHLWE\DSSO\LQJ

FRJQLWLYH VWUDWHJLHV :H FKRVH WR LQFOXGH WKLV LQEHWZHHQ PHDVXUH DV LW DOORZV XV WR

VHSDUDWHWKHDYHUVLYHVWDWHDIWHUYLJLODQWLVPIURPWKHRQHLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQW7KLVGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQPDNHVLWSRVVLEOHWRWHVWZKHWKHUUHDFWLRQVWRWKHÀUVWFULPH

DIIHFWUHDFWLRQVIXUWKHUGRZQWKHVHTXHQFH

 7KHVLWXDWLRQK\SRWKHVLVDQGFRQÀGHQFHK\SRWKHVLV

5HVSRQVHSDWWHUQVZLWKLQWKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFHDUHH[SHFWHGWREHVLPLODU

IRUDOOUHVSRQGHQWVEXWWKHOHYHORI UHVSRQVHVLVOLNHO\WRYDU\EHWZHHQUHVSRQGHQWV

)RULQVWDQFHWKHGHVFULSWLRQRI DSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHZLOOSUREDEO\LQGXFHDQDYHUVLYH

VWDWHLQPRVWLI QRWDOOSHRSOHEXWWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLWGRHVLVH[SHFWHGWRGLIIHU

EHWZHHQLQGLYLGXDOV7KHFHQWUDOTXHVWLRQLVKRZWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVFDQEHSUHGLFWHG:H

SURSRVHWKDWUHVSRQVHVZLOOEHDIIHFWHGE\IDFWRUVUHODWHGWRWKHYLJLODQWLVPVLWXDWLRQDV

ZHOODVE\DWWLWXGHVLQFOXGLQJFRQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHPRI UHVSRQGHQWV

WKHPVHOYHV

,Q FRUUHVSRQGHQFH ZLWK WKH VLWXDWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV SUHGLFWLRQV FDQ EH PDGH XVLQJ WKH

YLJLODQWLVP W\SRORJ\ WKDW ZDV SUHVHQWHG LQ &KDSWHU  7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKDW DUH

LGHQWLÀHG LQ WKH W\SRORJ\ DUH H[SHFWHG WR DIIHFW DYHUVLYH VWDWHV DV ZHOO DV SHRSOH·V

UHVXOWLQJ XVH RI  FRJQLWLYH VWUDWHJLHV 5HVHDUFK IRU LQVWDQFH UHYHDOV WKH UROH RI  YLFWLP

LQQRFHQFHWKHOHVVLQQRFHQWDYLFWLPLVSHUFHLYHGWREHWKHHDVLHULWLVWREODPHDQG

GHURJDWHKLP&RUUHLD9DOD $JXLDU+DIHU %qJXH,QWKHÀUVWSDUW

RI  WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ 3DUW , WZR RI  WKH VLWXDWLRQDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZLOO EH YDULHG WR

H[DPLQHWKHLULPSDFWRQUHDFWLRQVLQWKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH7KHUHDVRQV

IRUFKRRVLQJWKHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZLOOEHSUHVHQWHGEHORZ

,QOLQHZLWKWKHFRQÀGHQFHK\SRWKHVLVSHRSOH·VFRQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHP

LVDOVRH[SHFWHGWRLQÁXHQFHUHDFWLRQVWRWKHYLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH,QWKHVHFRQG

SDUWRI WKHVWXG\3DUW,,ZHZLOOWKHUHIRUHDVVHVVSHRSOH·VFRQÀGHQFHLQDGGLWLRQWR

VHYHUDORWKHUDWWLWXGHV

$VZLOOEHGHVFULEHGLQPRUHGHWDLOLQWKHQH[WFKDSWHUDOOPDWHULDOZDVSUHVHQWHGWR

UHVSRQGHQWVRQOLQH,QRUGHUWRUHGXFHSRVVLEOHHIIHFWVRI WKHYLJQHWWHVRQWKHDWWLWXGH

PHDVXUHV D WLPH ODSVH RI  RQH PRQWK ZDV PDLQWDLQHG EHWZHHQ WKH WZR SDUWV RI  WKH



VWXG\7KXVLQ3DUW,UHVSRQGHQWVZHUHDVNHGWRUHDGDQXPEHURI YLJQHWWHVDQGDQVZHU

WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJTXHVWLRQV2QHPRQWKODWHUWKHVDPHUHVSRQGHQWVZHUHSUHVHQWHG

ZLWKDQXPEHURI DWWLWXGHPHDVXUHVLQ3DUW,,3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHQRWWROGWKDW3DUWV,DQG

,,EHORQJHGWRWKHVDPHVWXG\%RWKSDUWVDUHGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOEHORZ

 0HWKRG²3DUW,

 'HVLJQ

,Q 3DUW , RI  WKH VWXG\ YLJQHWWHV DUH XVHG WR LQGXFH DYHUVLYH VWDWHV DQG VXEVHTXHQW

DSSOLFDWLRQVRI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV7KHGHVLJQLVEHWZHHQVXEMHFWV(DFKUHVSRQGHQWLV

SUHVHQWHGZLWKWZRYLJQHWWHVWKDWWRJHWKHUSUHVHQWLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWDOOWKUHHHYHQWV

IURPWKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH9LJQHWWHGHVFULEHVWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

ZKLFKLVIROORZHGE\DÀUVWVHWRI TXHVWLRQV3DUWLFLSDQWVDUHVXEVHTXHQWO\SUHVHQWHG

ZLWK9LJQHWWHZKLFKGHVFULEHVWKHIRUPDOUHVSRQVHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHDQGDQ

DFWRI YLJLODQWLVP9LJQHWWHLVIROORZHGE\DVHFRQGVHWRI TXHVWLRQV

7KHFRQWHQWVRI WKHYLJQHWWHVYDU\LQFRUUHVSRQGHQFHZLWKWKHH[SHULPHQWDOYDULDWLRQ

RI WZRVLWXDWLRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV([SHULPHQWDOIDFWRULVWKHW\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

ZKLFK LV GHVFULEHGLQ 9LJQHWWH WKUHHYHUVLRQV)DFWRU  LV WKHIRUPDO UHVSRQVHWR WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQGLVSUHVHQWHGLQ9LJQHWWHIRXUYHUVLRQV)LJXUHVKRZVWKHWZR

FKDUDFWHULVWLFVZLWKLQWKHYLJLODQWLVPW\SRORJ\WKH\DUHERWKGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOEHORZ

 9LJQHWWHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

7KHÀUVWH[SHULPHQWDOIDFWRULVWKHW\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW%\YDU\LQJWKLVÀUVWHYHQW

LQ WKH %-: YLJLODQWLVP HYHQW VHTXHQFH DQG FRPSDULQJ VXEVHTXHQW UHVSRQVHV RI  SDUWLFLSDQWVXQGHUO\LQJWKHRUHWLFDODVVXPSWLRQVDERXW%-:SURFHVVHVFDQEHWHVWHG:H

FDQH[DPLQHZKHWKHUGLIIHUHQWSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHVOHDGWRGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRI DYHUVLYH

VWDWHDQGZKHWKHUWKLVDIIHFWVUHDFWLRQVWRYLJLODQWLVPGRZQWKHOLQH:HVSHFLÀFDOO\

GHFLGHGWRYDU\WKHW\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWEHFDXVHUHVHDUFKVKRZVWKDWFULPHW\SH

FDQKDYHDPDMRULPSDFWRQKRZDFULPHVLWXDWLRQDQGWKHSHRSOHLQYROYHGDUHMXGJHG

E\RXWVLGHUVHJ&DUOVPLWK'DUOH\ 5RELQVRQ5RVVLHWDO:DUU 7KHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQZDVRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGE\FRQVWUXFWLQJWKUHHYHUVLRQV

RI  9LJQHWWH  $ WUDIÀF DJJUHVVLRQ % D SHGHVWULDQ FUDVK DQG & D VH[ RIIHQVH

7KHVHWKUHHYHUVLRQVRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZDIWHUZKLFKZHZLOO

HOXFLGDWHWKHFKRLFHVWKDWZHPDGHLQWKLVUHJDUG7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJYLJQHWWHVFDQEH

IRXQGLQ$SSHQGL[$SSHQGL[SURYLGHVWKHLU(QJOLVKWUDQVODWLRQ

,QSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWH$D\HDUROGPDOHF\FOLVW$ODQLVFXWRII LQWUDIÀF

E\DFDUGULYHU'DYH^$ODQUHDFWVWRWKLVE\UDLVLQJKLVÀVWVWR'DYHDIWHUZKLFKWKH

GULYHUSXUSRVHO\IRUFHVWKHF\FOLVWRII WKHURDG7KLVFDXVHV$ODQWRIDOORII KLVELF\FOH

UHVXOWLQJLQDEURNHQDUPDEURNHQOHJEUXLVHGULEVDQGDFRQFXVVLRQ+HLVWDNHQWRD

 7KHYDULDWLRQLQQDPHVLVLQWURGXFHGKHUHWRPDNHWKHGLIIHUHQWYHUVLRQVPRUHHDVLO\GLVWLQJXLVKDEOH,QWKHRULJLQDO

YLJQHWWHVHDFKSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUDQGODWHUYLJLODQWLVPYLFWLPZDVQDPHG5XEHQDQGHDFKYLJLODQWHZDVQDPHG

)UDQN7KHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHYLFWLPLQYHUVLRQV%DQG&ZDVODEHOHG¶QLQH\HDUROGJLUO·



9,*,/$17,60

&217(;7

 9,&7,0

QXPEHU

FKDUDFWHULVWLFV

GHIHQVLELOLW\

 )250$/

5(63216(72

35(&,3,7$7,1*

(9(17

 9,*,/$17,60

W\SH

YLROHQFH

WHPSRUDOSDWWHUQ

FRQVHTXHQFHV

 9,*,/$17(

QXPEHU

FKDUDFWHULVWLFV

UHODWLRQWRWDUJHW

PRWLYDWLRQ



35(&,3,7$7,1*

(9(17

W\SH

YLROHQFH

WHPSRUDOSDWWHUQ

FRQVHTXHQFHV

KRVSLWDO'DYHLVDSSUHKHQGHGE\WKHSROLFHDQGIRXQGWRKDYHDEORRGDOFRKROOHYHORI  WZLFHWKHOHJDOOLPLW

9HUVLRQ%RI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWHGHVFULEHVD\HDUROGJLUO%HWW\ZKR

LVKLWE\DVSHHGLQJFDUZKLOHZDONLQJZLWKKHUELF\FOHRQDSHGHVWULDQFURVVLQJ7KHFDU

GULYHU(WKDQLVDSSUHKHQGHGE\WKHSROLFHDQGLVIRXQGWREHLQWR[LFDWHGDWWKHVDPH

OHYHODV'DYHLQYHUVLRQ$%HWW\·VLQMXULHVDUHH[DFWO\WKHVDPHDVWKRVHVXIIHUHGE\$ODQ

LQYHUVLRQ$DQGVKHLVDOVRWDNHQWRDKRVSLWDO

3UHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWH&GHSLFWVDVH[RIIHQVHDJDLQVWDFKLOG7KHYLFWLPLV

D\HDUROGJLUO&\QWKLDZKRLVSXOOHGRII KHUELF\FOHZKLOHRQKHUZD\KRPHIURP

VFKRRO$IWHUVKHIDOOVWRWKHJURXQGDPDQ)UHGVH[XDOO\DVVDXOWVKHU,QWKHVWUXJJOH

WKDWIROORZV&\QWKLDLVDEOHWRJHWDZD\DQG)UHGLVODWHUDSSUHKHQGHGE\WKHSROLFH

$OOWKUHHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWHVDUHLQWHQGHGWRLQGXFHDFRQVLGHUDEOHDYHUVLYH

VWDWHLQRXUUHVSRQGHQWV,QOLQHZLWKUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQVWLPXOXV

LPSDFW+DIHU %qJXHZHGHVFULEHDFWVWKDWDUHREYLRXVO\FULPLQDODQGZKLFK

KDYH VHULRXV FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH YLFWLPV 7KH LQMXULHV DUH QHYHUWKHOHVV QRW IDWDO LQ

RUGHUWRDYRLGFHLOLQJHIIHFWVLQWKHUHVSRQVHV:HDGGLWLRQDOO\SRUWUD\WKHRIIHQGHUVDV

EHLQJFOHDUO\UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHLUDFW,QWR[LFDWLRQRI WKHGULYHUVLVIRULQVWDQFHDGGHG

)LJXUH([SHULPHQWDOYDULDWLRQXQGHUOLQHGDQGVWDUUHG



WRHPSKDVL]HWKHEODPHZRUWKLQHVVRI WKHRIIHQGHUVLQWKHÀUVWWZRYHUVLRQV,QYHUVLRQ

$ZHDOVRPDNHLWFOHDUWKDWWKHGULYHUSXUSRVHO\IRUFHVWKHF\FOLVWRII WKHURDG7KH

SDUWLFXODUQDWXUHRI WKHWKLUGRIIHQVHQDPHO\DVH[FULPHE\DQDGXOWDJDLQVWDFKLOG

LV DOVR H[SHFWHG WR EULQJ DERXW D FOHDU SHUFHSWLRQ RI  UHVSRQVLELOLW\ :H DOVR DLP WR

HPSKDVL]HWKHLQQRFHQFHRI WKHYLFWLPVIRULQVWDQFHE\LQFOXGLQJ\RXQJJLUOVLQWZRRI  WKHYLJQHWWHVDQGE\KDYLQJRQHRI WKHPJHWKLWRQDFURVVZDON7KHLQQRFHQFHRI WKH

YLFWLPVLVH[SHFWHGWRPDNHLWUHODWLYHO\GLIÀFXOWWREODPHRUGHURJDWHWKHPVHH&RUUHLD

HWDOZKLFKZLOOOLNHO\FDXVHUHVSRQGHQWVWRPRVWO\UHO\RQDSXQLVKPHQWGHVLUH

VWUDWHJ\7KLVZLOOEHIXUWKHUDGGUHVVHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ

$SDUWIURPWKHW\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWGHWDLOVDUHKHOGFRQVWDQWEHWZHHQWKH

WKUHH YLJQHWWHV ZKHUH SRVVLEOH LQ RUGHU WR DYRLG LQWHUIHUHQFH ZLWK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO

PDQLSXODWLRQ 6XFK GHWDLOV LQFOXGH WKH DJH JHQGHU DQG SODFH RI  UHVLGHQFH RI  WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU DQG WKH WLPH RI  GD\ DQG ORFDWLRQ RI  WKH LQFLGHQW +RZHYHU

LWLVFKDOOHQJLQJWRYDU\FULPHW\SHZLWKRXWYDU\LQJRWKHUVLWXDWLRQDODVSHFWV7KHVH[

RIIHQGHULVIRULQVWDQFHQRWLQWR[LFDWHGZKLOHWKHWZRWUDIÀFRIIHQGHUVDUH/LNHZLVH

WKHVH[RIIHQVHYLFWLPGRHVQRWVXIIHUWKHVDPHSK\VLFDOFRQVHTXHQFHVDVWKHRWKHUWZR

YLFWLPV7KHYLFWLPVWKHPVHOYHVDOVRGLIIHUDVWZRRI WKHPDUH\HDUROGJLUOVZKLOH

WKHWKLUGRQHLVDQDGXOWPDOH:HZLOOGLVFXVVSRVVLEOHLPSOLFDWLRQVRI WKHVHGLIIHUHQFHV

LQWKHGLVFXVVLRQVHFWLRQ

$OOYLJQHWWHVZHUHPDGHDVUHDOLVWLFDVSRVVLEOHE\PDNLQJWKHPDSSHDUOLNHDUWLFOHV

IURPDSRSXODU'XWFKQHZVZHEVLWHZZZQXQO^%\XVLQJWKHVDPHIRUPDWIRQWW\SH

DQGFRORUVWKHDUWLFOHVZHUHFRQVWUXFWHGWRORRNDVJHQXLQHDVSRVVLEOHVHH$SSHQGL[

0RUHRYHUDUHDOFULPHVFHQHSLFWXUHIURPWKHZHEVLWHZDVDGGHGWR9LJQHWWHWR

PDNHWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWPRUHHDVLO\LPDJLQDEOHZLWKWKHLQWHQWLRQRI LQFUHDVLQJWKH

UHVXOWLQJDYHUVLYHVWDWH^(DFKSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWHFRQWDLQVWKHVDPHSLFWXUHRI  DGDPDJHGELF\FOHO\LQJLQDJUDVV\DUHDEHWZHHQDURDGDQGDELF\FOHSDWK7KHSLFWXUH

PDWFKHVDOOWKUHHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWVDVWKH\DOOLQYROYHDELF\FOH

 9LJQHWWHVHQWHQFHYLJLODQWLVP

7KH VHFRQG H[SHULPHQWDO IDFWRU FRQFHUQV WKH IRUPDO UHVSRQVH WR WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQWZKLFKLVSUHVHQWHGLQ9LJQHWWH:HRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGWKLVPDQLSXODWLRQE\YDU\LQJ

WKHVHQWHQFHIRUWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUDVSDVVHGE\DFULPLQDOMXGJH:HWKXVFKRVHWR

YDU\WKHVHFRQGPDLQHYHQWRI WKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH7KLVRQFHDJDLQ

DOORZVXVWRWHVWZKHWKHUYDULDWLRQLQRQHRI WKHHYHQWVRI WKHFKDLQDIIHFWVUHDFWLRQV

IXUWKHUGRZQ,QVWHDGRI YDU\LQJWKHSROLFHUHVSRQVHDVZHGLGLQRXUÀUVWVWXG\ZH

QRZ GHFLGHG WR IRFXV RQ IRUPDO VHQWHQFLQJ 7KH SXEOLF WHQGV WR IHHO VWURQJ DERXW

VHQWHQFLQJDQGRIWHQSHUFHLYHVLWWREHWRROHQLHQWHJ'H.HLMVHUHWDOUHJDUGLQJ

WKH'XWFK:HWKHUHIRUHH[SHFWWKDWDYDULDWLRQLQVHQWHQFLQJPLJKWDIIHFWKRZSHRSOH

IHHODERXWDVXEVHTXHQWDFWRI YLJLODQWLVP,QRXUVWXG\ZHVSHFLI\IRXUYHUVLRQVRI 

 6LPLODUO\ LQ D VWXG\ RQ VHQVHOHVV YLROHQFH DQG %-: LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH WROG WKDW D ÀFWLWLRXV

QHZVSDSHUDUWLFOHRULJLQDWHGIURPWKLVVDPHZHEVLWH9DQ=RPHUHQ /RGHZLMN[

 7KHHGLWRUVRI ZZZQXQOJDYHZULWWHQSHUPLVVLRQWRXVHWKHQXQOIRUPDWDQGSLFWXUHSURYLGHGWKDWVXEMHFWVZRXOG

EHLQIRUPHGDERXWWKHÀFWLWLRXVQDWXUHRI WKHDUWLFOHV$GLVFODLPHUZDVJLYHQDWWKHHQGRI 3DUW,



WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU·VVHQWHQFHDFTXLWWDODOHQLHQWVHQWHQFHDQRUPDOVHQWHQFH

DQG D VHYHUH VHQWHQFH VHH 7DEOH ^ ,Q WKH VH[ RIIHQVH FRQGLWLRQ WKHUH DUH RQO\

WZR VHQWHQFLQJ YDULDWLRQV D OHQLHQW DQG D VHYHUH RQH ZKLFK GLIIHU VOLJKWO\ IURP WKH

RWKHUVHQWHQFHV7KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVH[FHSWLRQZLOOEHSURYLGHGLQ6HFWLRQLQRXU

GLVFXVVLRQRI WKHSLORWVWXG\

7DEOH 6HQWHQFHVIRUWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUH[SHULPHQWDOIDFWRU^

9HUVLRQ 6HQWHQFLQJOHYHO

$

%

DFTXLWWDO

$

%

OHQLHQW HXURÀQH

PRQWKVVXVSHQGHGGULYHU·VOLFHQVH

$

%

QRUPDO KRXUVFRPPXQLW\VHUYLFH

PRQWKVVXVSHQGHGSULVRQVHQWHQFH

\HDUVXVSHQGHGGULYHU·VOLFHQVH

$

%

VHYHUH KRXUVFRPPXQLW\VHUYLFH

PRQWKVVXVSHQGHGSULVRQVHQWHQFH

\HDUVVXVSHQGHGGULYHU·VOLFHQVH

& OHQLHQW KRXUVFRPPXQLW\VHUYLFH

HXURFRPSHQVDWLRQWRYLFWLP

& VHYHUH KRXUVFRPPXQLW\VHUYLFH

PRQWKVVXVSHQGHGSULVRQVHQWHQFH

HXURFRPSHQVDWLRQWRYLFWLP

,QWKHDFTXLWWDOYHUVLRQWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHULVDFTXLWWHGE\WKHMXGJHGXHWRD

WHFKQLFDOLW\ WKH ZURQJ GDWH LQ WKH VXPPRQV ,PSRUWDQWO\ LW LV PDGH FOHDU WKDW WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHULVQRWUHOHDVHGEHFDXVHRI DODFNRI HYLGHQFHKHLVIRXQGJXLOW\RI  WKHFULPH,QRUGHUWRUHLQIRUFHWKHVXJJHVWLRQRI DOHQLHQWQRUPDORUVHYHUHVHQWHQFH

WKHYLJQHWWHVDOVRUHSRUWZKDWVHQWHQFHWKH3XEOLF3URVHFXWRUKDGGHPDQGHGIRUWKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU,QWKHQRUPDOVHQWHQFHFRQGLWLRQVWKHVHQWHQFHLVVDLGWRPDWFK

WKHSURVHFXWRU·VGHPDQG,QFDVHRI WKHOHQLHQWDQGVHYHUHVHQWHQFHVWKHGHPDQGRI  WKH 3XEOLF 3URVHFXWLRQ LV  KRXUV RI  FRPPXQLW\ VHUYLFH D WZRPRQWK VXVSHQGHG

SULVRQVHQWHQFHDQGDVXVSHQGHGGULYHU·VOLFHQVHIRURQH\HDU7KLVGHPDQGWKXVHTXDOV

WKHVHQWHQFHJLYHQLQWKHQRUPDOVHQWHQFLQJFRQGLWLRQ,QWKHVH[FULPHYHUVLRQVWKH

GHPDQGHGVHQWHQFHRI WKH3XEOLF3URVHFXWLRQLVKRXUVRI FRPPXQLW\VHUYLFHD

WZRPRQWKVXVSHQGHGSULVRQVHQWHQFHDQGHXURFRPSHQVDWLRQWRWKHYLFWLP

 7KHYHUVLRQODEHOVLQ7DEOHVXFKDV¶$·UHIHUWRWKHYHUVLRQVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH

 :HFRQVXOWHGD'XWFKFULPLQDOMXGJHWRJHWDQLQGLFDWLRQRI UHDOLVWLFVHQWHQFHVLQWKHJLYHQFULPLQDOFDVHV



$OOYHUVLRQVRI 9LJQHWWHVWDUWRII ZLWKDGHVFULSWLRQRI WKHVHQWHQFHSDVVHGE\WKH

MXGJHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU)ROORZLQJWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQWKHYLJQHWWHUHSRUWVWKDW

WKHVHQWHQFHGSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUKDVEHHQDWWDFNHGE\DYLJLODQWH7KHYLJLODQWLVPDFW

LVLGHQWLFDOLQDOOFRQGLWLRQVWKHYLJLODQWHJRHVWRWKHKRXVHRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

DQGWKURZVDEULFNWKURXJKWKHIURQWZLQGRZ)ROORZLQJWKLVWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

ZDONVRXWKLVIURQWGRRUDQGJHWVEHDWHQXSE\WKHYLJLODQWH7KHUHVXOWLQJLQMXULHVRI  WKHYLJLODQWLVPYLFWLPLHWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUDUHWZREURNHQWHHWKDEURNHQ

QRVHDQGFRQWXVLRQV7KLVDFWRI YLJLODQWLVPPDWFKHVRXUGHÀQLWLRQFI&KDSWHU7KH

YLROHQFHGRHVQRWTXDOLI\DVVHOIGHIHQVHRUFLWL]HQ·VDUUHVWDVLWLVQRWDUHDFWLRQWRDQ

LPPHGLDWHWKUHDW

7DEOHSURYLGHVDFRQFLVHRYHUYLHZRI WKHWHQH[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV7KHWKUHH

YHUVLRQV RI  WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ HYHQW DUH SUHVHQWHG RQ WKH OHIW $ % DQG & 7KH WHQ

YHUVLRQVRI WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJYLJLODQWLVPYLJQHWWHVDUHORFDWHGRQWKHULJKWVHFWLRQRI  WKHWDEOHDQGDUHODEHOHG$²$%²%&DQG&

7DEOH 2YHUYLHZRI 9LJQHWWHVDQGDQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJH[SHULPHQWDOYHUVLRQV

7KHLGHQWLW\RI WKHYLJLODQWHGLIIHUVVOLJKWO\EHWZHHQWKHFRQGLWLRQVGXHWRGLIIHUHQFHV

LQWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW,QWKHYLJLODQWLVPYLJQHWWHVWKDWIROORZSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

YLJQHWWH$WKHYLFWLPRI WUDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ$ODQFRQVRUWVWRYLJLODQWLVPDJDLQVWWKH

WUDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQRIIHQGHU'DYH%\DOORZLQJIRXUPRQWKVEHWZHHQWKHRFFXUUHQFHRI  WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHDQGWKHYLJLODQWLVPDFWLWLVPDGHSODXVLEOHWKDW$ODQUHFRYHUHG

VXIÀFLHQWO\ IURP KLV LQMXULHV WR EH DEOH WR XVH YLROHQFH ,Q WKH YLJQHWWHV WKDW UHODWH

WRSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW%SHGHVWULDQFUDVKWKHYLJLODQWH*HRUJHLVWKHIDWKHURI WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHYLFWLPWKH\RXQJJLUO%HWW\ZKRZDVKLWDVDSHGHVWULDQ,QRWKHU

ZRUGVQRWWKHYLFWLPRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWEXWKHUIDWKHUEHFRPHVWKHYLJLODQWH

7KH YLFWLPRI  YLJLODQWLVPLV RQFHDJDLQ WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU WKHGULYHU 'DYH ZKRGURYHLQWR%HWW\RQWKHFURVVZDON,QWKH&YHUVLRQVWKHYLJLODQWH+HQU\LVDOVR

WKHIDWKHURI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHYLFWLP&DWK\KHDWWDFNVWKHVH[RIIHQGHU)UHG

9LJQHWWHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW 9LJQHWWHVHQWHQFHYLJLODQWLVP 3UHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQW

9LFWLP 2IIHQGHU 3UHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU·V

VHQWHQFH

9LJLODQWLVP 2IIHQGHU YLJLODQWH

9LFWLP

$ 7UDIÀF

DJJUHVVLRQ

$ODQ 'DYH

$ DFTXLWWDO

YDQGDOLVP

DVVDXOW

$ODQ 'DYH

$ OHQLHQW

$ QRUPDO

$ VHYHUH

% 3HGHVWULDQ FUDVK

%HWW\ (WKDQ

% DFTXLWWDO

YDQGDOLVP

DVVDXOW

*HRUJH (WKDQ

% OHQLHQW

% QRUPDO

% VHYHUH

& 6H[RIIHQVH &DWK\ )UHG & OHQLHQW YDQGDOLVP

DVVDXOW +HQU\ )UHG

& VHYHUH



 &RQWUROJURXSV

(YHQWKRXJKRXURSHUDWLRQDOL]LRQDOORZVXVWRSDUWLDOO\GHDOZLWKWKHFRQFHUQRI RYHUWO\

DVNLQJ DERXW DYHUVLYH VWDWHV DQG XVHV RI  FRJQLWLYH VWUDWHJLHV LQWHUIHUHQFH ZLWK VRPH

RI WKHVH%-:SURFHVVHVLVVWLOOSRVVLEOH$IWHUDOOSHRSOH·VDYHUVLYHVWDWHDQGWKHLUXVH

RI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVDUHVWLOODVVHVVHGDWWZRGLIIHUHQWLQVWDQFHV$GGLWLRQDOO\LQUHDO

OLIHWKHSXEOLFZLOOXVXDOO\EHLQIRUPHGDERXWDYLJLODQWLVPFDVHE\WKHPHGLDZKRZLOO

FRPPRQO\SUHVHQWLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWDYLJLODQWLVPFDVHDOODWRQFH^7KHDYHUVLYHVWDWHV

DQGUHVXOWDQWXVHVRI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVLQWKDWFDVHRFFXULQDQDWXUDOIDVKLRQZLWKRXW

EHLQJLQWHUUXSWHGE\TXHVWLRQQDLUHLWHPVLQEHWZHHQ:HWKHUHIRUHDLPHGWRDFKHFNIRU

SRVVLEOHLQWHUIHUHQFHDQGEWHVWZKHWKHUWKHYLJQHWWHVWXG\LVDJRRGUHSOLFDWLRQRI WKH

SURFHVVHVWKDWZRXOGRFFXULQDUHDOVHWWLQJ7RWKLVHQGFRQWUROJURXSVZHUHFUHDWHGIRU

H[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV%SHGHVWULDQFUDVKOHQLHQWVHQWHQFHDQG&VH[RIIHQVH

DQGOHQLHQWVHQWHQFH,QWKHWZRFRQWUROFRQGLWLRQVFDOOHG%;DQG&;UHVSRQGHQWV

DUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKMXVWRQHYLJQHWWHLQZKLFKDOOLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU·VVHQWHQFHDQGWKHYLJLODQWLVPDFWLVFRPELQHG7KHVH

UHVSRQGHQWVRQO\DQVZHUTXHVWLRQVDIWHUKDYLQJEHHQH[SRVHGWRDOORI WKHLQIRUPDWLRQ

DQGDUHWKHUHIRUHQRWLQWHUUXSWHGE\LQEHWZHHQPHDVXUHVRI DYHUVLYHVWDWHVRUXVHVRI  FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV7KH\DUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKWKHVDPHVHWRI TXHVWLRQVWKDWUHVSRQGHQWV

LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV UHFHLYH DIWHU UHDGLQJ 9LJQHWWH  5HVSRQVHV ZLOO EH

FRPSDUHG EHWZHHQ % DQG %; DQG EHWZHHQ & DQG &; 7KH PRUH VLPLODU WKH

UHVSRQVHV LQ WKH FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV DUH WR WKRVH LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV WKH

KLJKHUWKHYDOLGLW\RI WKHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQ$SSHQGL[SURYLGHVDQH[DPSOH

RI DFRQWUROFRQGLWLRQYLJQHWWH

 0HDVXUHV

,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHGHVFULEHWKHVXUYH\LWHPVWKDWDUHXVHGWRPHDVXUHWKHYDULRXV%-:

UHDFWLRQVWRWKHYLJQHWWHV$IWHUUHDGLQJ9LJQHWWHUHVSRQGHQWVDUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKD

VHWRI LWHPVDERXWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWVHH$SSHQGL[6HYHUDORI WKHVHLWHPV

DUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH XVHG LQ RXU ÀUVW HPSLULFDO VWXG\ WR PHDVXUH VXSSRUW 7R SKUDVH

WKHFXUUHQWLWHPVDVQHXWUDOO\DVSRVVLEOHWKHSHUVRQVLQWKHYLJQHWWHDUHUHIHUUHGWRE\

WKHLU QDPHV LQVWHDG RI  ODEHOLQJ WKHP DV ¶YLFWLPV· RU ¶SHUSHWUDWRUV· 8QOHVV RWKHUZLVH

VSHFLÀHGUHVSRQGHQWVLQGLFDWHWKHLUDJUHHPHQWZLWKWKHLWHPVRQDSRLQWVFDOH  IXOO\GLVDJUHH IXOO\DJUHH

7KHÀUVWQLQHLWHPVDLPWRPHDVXUHUHVSRQGHQWV·DYHUVLYHVWDWHGXHWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQW7KHOLWHUDWXUHLVDPELJXRXVUHJDUGLQJWKHFRQFHSWRI DYHUVLYHVWDWHDQGKRZLW

FDQEHDVVHVVHG*LYHQWKDWZHLQWHQGWRJHWDQLQGLFDWLRQRI UHVSRQGHQWV·HPRWLRQDO

UHDFWLRQVWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHZHGHFLGHGWRSUHVHQWLWHPVDERXWPRUDORXWUDJH

HPSDWK\ ZLWK WKH YLFWLP DQG V\PSDWK\ IRU WKH RIIHQGHU ,Q SDVW UHVHDUFK VLPLODU

HPRWLRQVKDYHEHHQPHDVXUHGWRDVVHVVWKHLPSDFWRI DWKUHDWWR%-:HJ&RRN

+DJHGRRUQHWDO/RGHZLMN['H.ZDDGVWHQLHW 1LMVWDG

 7KHPHGLDDUHOLNHO\WRUHSRUWDERXWYLJLODQWLVPZKLOHDOVRSURYLGLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQG

RWKHUVLWXDWLRQDODVSHFWVEHFDXVHLWLVSUHFLVHO\WKLVFRQWH[WZKLFKPDNHVLWDQDFWRI YLJLODQWLVP



:HVXEVHTXHQWO\PHDVXUHWRZKDWH[WHQWVXEMHFWVDSSO\FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWRGHDOZLWK

WKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWH7KHRUGHULQZKLFKWKHVHFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVDUHSUHVHQWHGLVQRW

YDULHGDVSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKVKRZVWKDWWKHFKRLFHIRUVWUDWHJLHVGRHVQRWGHSHQGRQ

ZKLFKHYHURQHLVÀUVWDYDLODEOH+D\QHV 2OVRQ:HÀUVWSUHVHQWWKUHHLWHPVWKDW

FRQFHUQGHURJDWLRQRI WKHYLFWLP6LPLODUO\WRZKDWKDVEHHQGRQHLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHHJ

&RUUHLD9DOD $JXLDUSHRSOHDUHIRULQVWDQFHDVNHGWRLQGLFDWHKRZ¶VWXSLG·WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHYLFWLPLV,QWKHVXEVHTXHQWWKUHHLWHPVSHRSOHDUHDVNHGWRLQGLFDWH

WR ZKDW H[WHQW WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU DQG WKH YLFWLP DUH HDFK WR EODPH IRU ZKDW

KDSSHQHGRQDSRLQWVFDOH QRWWREODPH FRPSOHWHO\WREODPH%\LQFOXGLQJ

DEODPHDVVHVVPHQWRI ERWKWKHYLFWLPDQGWKHRIIHQGHUDVKDVEHHQUHFRPPHQGHGLQ

WKHOLWHUDWXUH0DHVZHPHDVXUHERWKDEVROXWHDQGUHODWLYHSHUFHSWLRQVRI EODPH

5HVSRQGHQWV DUH QH[W SUHVHQWHG ZLWK ÀYH LWHPV WKDW PHDVXUH WKHLU GHVLUH IRU

SXQLVKPHQWRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU7KH\ÀUVWUHVSRQGWRWKUHHLWHPVDERXWWKH

H[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHPVKRXOGSXQLVKWKHRIIHQGHUIRUKLVDFWVHH

$SSHQGL[5HVSRQGHQWVDUHDGGLWLRQDOO\JLYHQDPRUHGLUHFWTXHVWLRQDERXWZKHWKHU

KHGHVHUYHVWREHSXQLVKHG\HVRUQR,QRUGHUWRJHWDQLQGLFDWLRQRI WKHVHYHULW\RI  WKHVDQFWLRQWKDWUHVSRQGHQWVKDYHLQPLQGWKH\DUHDOVRDVNHGWRH[SUHVVWKHLUGHVLUHG

SXQLVKPHQWLQSHQDOW\SRLQWV QRSRLQWV PD[LPXPSRLQWV

7KH ÀUVW VHW RI  TXHVWLRQV LV IROORZHG E\ D SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI  9LJQHWWH  ZKLFK

GHVFULEHVWKHIRUPDOVHQWHQFHIRUWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUDQGWKHDFWRI YLJLODQWLVP

5HVSRQGHQWVDUHVXEVHTXHQWO\DVNHGWRUHVSRQGWRDVHWRI LWHPVVHH$SSHQGL[

7KHVHLWHPVDUHDOPRVWLGHQWLFDOWRWKHRQHVSRVHGLQUHODWLRQWR9LJQHWWHH[FHSWWKDW

WKH\DUHQRZDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWDFWVDQGDFWRUV%ODPLQJWKHYLFWLPIRULQVWDQFH

QRZFRQFHUQVWKHYLFWLPRI YLJLODQWLVPLQVWHDGRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHYLFWLP7KH

VDPH LV WUXH IRU WKH LWHPV DERXW GHVHUYHG SXQLVKPHQW IRU WKH SHUSHWUDWRU QRZ WKH

YLJLODQWHLQVWHDGRI WKHLQWR[LFDWHGGULYHUVRUWKHVH[RIIHQGHU7KHDFWRUVLQWKHYLJQHWWH

DUHDJDLQUHIHUUHGWRE\WKHLUQDPHVUDWKHUWKDQE\WKHLU¶UROH·DVDYLFWLPRUSHUSHWUDWRU

$QHZLWHPLVLQFOXGHGDERXWVHHLQJWKHYLJLODQWHDVDYLFWLPLQWKLVVLWXDWLRQUDWKHUWKDQ

DSHUSHWUDWRU-XVWOLNHLQWKHÀUVWVHWRI TXHVWLRQVWZRDGGLWLRQDOLWHPVDVNUHVSRQGHQWV

WRLQGLFDWHUHODWLYHEODPHRI WKHYLJLODQWLVPYLFWLPDQGWKHSHUSHWUDWRUWKHYLJLODQWH

1H[WSDUWLFLSDQWVLQGLFDWHZKHWKHUWKHSHUSHWUDWRUWKHYLJLODQWHGHVHUYHVSXQLVKPHQW

\HVRUQRDQGKRZPDQ\SHQDOW\SRLQWVWKH\FRQVLGHUDSSURSULDWH

/DVWO\ ZH DVVHVV ZKHWKHU UHVSRQGHQWV VHH WKH YLJLODQWLVP DFW DV DQ DSSURSULDWH

UHSODFHPHQWRI DIRUPDOVHQWHQFH,QRWKHUZRUGVGRWKH\IHHOWKDWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

RIIHQGHU KDV EHHQ SXQLVKHG VXIÀFLHQWO\ E\ WKH YLJLODQWH WKHUHE\ PDNLQJ IRUPDO

SXQLVKPHQWXQQHFHVVDU\"7RWKLVHQGUHVSRQGHQWVDUHÀUVWUHPLQGHGRI WKHQXPEHU

RI SHQDOW\SRLQWVWKDWWKH\JDYHWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUDIWHUUHDGLQJ9LJQHWWH7KH\

DUH VXEVHTXHQWO\DVNHG WR LQGLFDWH ZKHWKHU WKH\ DIWHU KDYLQJ UHDG DERXW YLJLODQWLVP

QRZZDQWWRJLYHWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUWKHVDPHSXQLVKPHQWDVEHIRUHPRUHOHVV

RUQRQHDWDOO$IWHUDQVZHULQJWKHODVWTXHVWLRQSDUWLFLSDQWVDUHLQIRUPHGDERXWWKH

ÀFWLWLRXVQDWXUHRI WKHQHZVSDSHUDUWLFOHV



 *HQHUDOSUHGLFWLRQV

:HZLOOQRZSUHVHQWVRPHRI RXUJHQHUDOH[SHFWDWLRQV0RUHGHWDLOHGK\SRWKHVHVDUH

IRUPXODWHGLQ&KDSWHUDIWHUFRQVWUXFWLQJWKHVSHFLÀFGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV:HZLOO

UHIHUWRWKHRULJLQDOPRGHOVRWKDWDOOLQWHUPHGLDWHHIIHFWVFDQEHGLVFXVVHG1RWDOORI  WKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVFDQEHWHVWHGGLUHFWO\EHFDXVHZHXVHDVLPSOLÀHGPRGHOLQWKHVWXG\

DVH[SODLQHGLQ6HFWLRQ:HZLOORQO\DVVHVVOHYHODQGRI SHRSOH·VDYHUVLYHVWDWH

DQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJXVHVRI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

%DVHGRQWKHRULJLQDOPRGHOVHH)LJXUHZHÀUVWSUHGLFWWKDWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQWZLOOOHDGWRDQDYHUVLYHVWDWHOHYHOZKLFKSHRSOHZLOOEHPRWLYDWHGWRUHGXFH

WKURXJKFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWRUHDFKOHYHO)ROORZLQJWKLVSHRSOHÀQGRXWDERXWWKH

IRUPDO VHQWHQFH IRU WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU :H H[SHFW WKDW WKH PRUH VHYHUH WKLV

IRUPDOVHQWHQFHLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHWKHPRUHWKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWHZLOOEHIXUWKHUUHGXFHG

IURPOHYHOWR$IWHUDOORQHZD\RI UHVWRULQJMXVWLFHLVE\SXQLVKLQJWKHSHUVRQZKR

LVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHYLFWLPL]DWLRQ0RUHRYHUPDNLQJWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLFWLPVLQ

9LJQHWWHDSSHDULQQRFHQWLVPHDQWWRPDNHLWPRUHGLIÀFXOWIRUUHVSRQGHQWVWRDSSO\

WKHFRJQLWLYHWHFKQLTXHVRI EODPHDQGGHURJDWLRQ,QDQDWWHPSWWRSURWHFWWKHLU%-:

WKH\DUHWKXVH[SHFWHGWRPRVWO\UHO\RQWKHFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJ\RI DVVLJQLQJSXQLVKPHQW

WRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU^,I WKH\WKHQJRRQWRUHDGWKDWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

ZDVDSSURSULDWHO\VHQWHQFHGE\DMXGJHWKLVVKRXOGKHOSWKHPWRIXUWKHUUHGXFHWKHLU

DYHUVLYH VWDWH $OWHUQDWLYHO\ LI  SHRSOH DUH LQIRUPHG WKDW WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU LV

DFTXLWWHGRUVHQWHQFHGOHQLHQWO\WKHLUDYHUVLYHVWDWHZLOOLQFUHDVH

,QDGGLWLRQWRÀQGLQJRXWDERXWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU·VVHQWHQFHUHVSRQGHQWV

DUHLQIRUPHGWKDWKHKDVEHFRPHWKHYLFWLPRI DYLJLODQWLVPDFW:HSUHGLFWWKDWWKH

PRUH VHYHUHO\ WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU LV VHQWHQFHG E\ WKH FULPLQDO MXVWLFH V\VWHP

SULRUWREHFRPLQJDYLFWLPRI YLJLODQWLVPWKHPRUHRI DWKUHDWYLJLODQWLVPZLOOSRVH

WR SHRSOH·V %-: DQG WKH KLJKHU WKH DYHUVLYH VWDWH DW OHYHO  ZLOO EH $IWHU DOO LI  WKH

SUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUZDVIRUPDOO\VHQWHQFHGKHDOUHDG\KDGWR¶SD\·GXO\IRUKLVFULPH

PDNLQJKLVSXQLVKPHQWDVFDUULHGRXWE\WKHYLJLODQWHVHHPOHVVMXVWLÀDEOH

2I  WKH VWUDWHJLHV WKDW ZLOO EH XVHG WR UHGXFH DYHUVLYH VWDWH OHYHO  EODPH DQG

GHURJDWLRQ ZLOO EH WKH PRVW GLIÀFXOW ZKHQ WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU ZDV DOUHDG\

VHQWHQFHGVHYHUHO\E\DMXGJH$VDUHVXOWUHVSRQGHQWVLQWKRVHFDVHVZLOOUHO\PRUHRQ

WKHVWUDWHJ\RI GHVLULQJSXQLVKPHQWIRUWKHYLJLODQWH$OWHUQDWLYHO\LI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJ

RIIHQGHUZDVDFTXLWWHGEHIRUHEHLQJDWWDFNHGE\DYLJLODQWHLWZLOOEHHDVLHUWREODPHDQG

GHURJDWHKLPIRUKLVIDWH,QIDFWYLJLODQWLVPPD\KDYHDVPDOOHULPSDFWRQWKHDYHUVLYH

VWDWHLI WKHDFWLVSHUFHLYHGDVDVXLWDEOHUHSODFHPHQWIRUWKHODFNRI DIRUPDOVHQWHQFH

 7KLVLVWKXVDFRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJ\DVSHRSOHH[SUHVVWKHLUZLVKIRUWKHRIIHQGHUWREHSXQLVKHGUDWKHUWKDQDFWXDOO\

EHKDYLRUDOO\SXQLVKLQJKLP6HH&KDSWHUIRUDPRUHGHWDLOHGH[SODQDWLRQRI WKLVGLVWLQFWLRQ



3UHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

)RUPDOUHVSRQVHWR

SUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

9LJLODQWLVP

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

$YHUVLYHVWDWH OHYHO

Ð

&RJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV

Ð

6XSSRUWIRU YLJLODQWLVP

)LJXUH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFHRULJLQDO



 0HWKRG²3DUW,,

2QH PRQWK DIWHU UHVSRQGLQJ WR TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH YLJQHWWHV 3DUW , WKH VDPH

SDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHUHTXHVWHGWRSDUWLFLSDWHLQDQRWKHUVXUYH\3DUW,,7KLVSDUWRI WKH

VWXG\FRQVLVWVRI LWHPVLQWHQGHGWRPHDVXUHDFRQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFH

V\VWHPEJHQHUDOFRQFHUQRYHUFULPHFJHQHUDOVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVPDQGGEHOLHI  LQDMXVWZRUOGIRURWKHUV%-:27KHVHIRXUDWWLWXGHVDUHGLVFXVVHGLQIXUWKHUGHWDLO

EHORZ$OOLWHPVDUHHYDOXDWHGRQDSRLQWVFDOHWKDWUDQJHVIURPIXOO\GLVDJUHHWR

IXOO\DJUHH7RFRQWUROIRUSRVVLEOHRUGHUHIIHFWVWKHSUHVHQWDWLRQRUGHURI WKHDWWLWXGH

TXHVWLRQVHWVZDVYDULHG^

&RQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHP

2QHRI WKHPDLQDLPVRI RXUUHVHDUFKLVWRVWXG\WKHLQÁXHQFHRI FRQÀGHQFHLQWKH

FULPLQDO MXVWLFH V\VWHP DVLGH IURP VLWXDWLRQDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RQ SXEOLF VXSSRUW IRU

YLJLODQWLVP7RWKLVHQGZHGHYHORSHGDQLQWHJUDWHGPHDVXUHPHQWWRRORI FRQÀGHQFH

VHH &KDSWHU  7KH PDLQ WKHRUHWLFDO DQG HPSLULFDO GLVWLQFWLRQV WKDW ZHUH SUHVHQWHG

DUHEHWZHHQSURFHGXUDOMXVWLFHDQGHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGEHWZHHQYDULRXVFULPLQDOMXVWLFH

DJHQFLHV,QRXUÀUVWYLJQHWWHVWXG\DVGHVFULEHGLQ&KDSWHUZHHPSOR\HGDLWHP

YHUVLRQRI WKHWRRO)RUWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\ZHXVHGLWHPVIRUWKHPHDVXUHPHQWRI  FRQÀGHQFHVHH$SSHQGL[2QHRI WKHUHDVRQVIRUXVLQJWKLVPRUHHODERUDWHPHDVXUH

LVWKDWZHZDQWHGWRSUHVHQWPRUHLWHPVRQWKHRYHUDOOFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHPWKDQZDV

GRQHLQWKHSUHYLRXVYHUVLRQ$GGLWLRQDOO\ZHZDQWWRDFKLHYHDEHWWHUEDODQFHEHWZHHQ

LWHPVDERXWHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGWKRVHRQSURFHGXUDOMXVWLFH7KHUHVXOWLQJLWHPVDUHHYHQO\

GLYLGHG RYHU SROLFH WKH SURVHFXWRUV MXGJHV DQG WKH RYHUDOO FULPLQDO MXVWLFH V\VWHP^ 5HVSRQGHQWVZKRDUHQRWIDPLOLDUZLWKWKHWDVNVRI WKHFULPLQDOFRXUWDUHJLYHQWKH

RSWLRQWRFOLFNRQDSRSXSVFUHHQIRUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQVHH$SSHQGL[

*HQHUDOFRQFHUQRYHUFULPH

)RXULWHPVZHUHXVHGWRPHDVXUHJHQHUDOFRQFHUQRYHUFULPH*&&'H.HLMVHUHWDO

,QRXUÀUVWYLJQHWWHVWXG\&KDSWHUSHRSOHZKRZHUHPRUHZRUULHGDERXW

FULPHZHUHIRXQGWREHPRUHVXSSRUWLYHRI YLJLODQWLVP7RH[DPLQHZKHWKHUWKLVLV

DOVRWKHFDVHLQWKHFXUUHQWVDPSOHDQGVWXG\IRXULWHPVRQ*&&ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKH

TXHVWLRQQDLUHVHH$SSHQGL[7KUHHRI WKHVHLWHPVZHUHDOVRXVHGLQRXUSUHYLRXV

VWXG\DQH[WUDRQHZDVDGGHGLQRUGHUWRUHDFKDKLJKHULQWHUQDOFRQVLVWHQF\7KH*&&

LWHPVZHUHPL[HGLQZLWKWKHLWHPVRQFRQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHPDV

WKHFRQWHQWVDUHVLPLODU7KLVVKRXOGDGGLWLRQDOO\KHOSWRUHGXFHUHVSRQVHSDWWHUQELDV

DVWKH*&&LWHPVDUHZRUGHGLQDGLIIHUHQWGLUHFWLRQWKDQPRVWRI WKHFRQÀGHQFHLWHPV

 +DOI RI WKHUHVSRQGHQWVÀUVWUHVSRQGHGWRWKHFRQÀGHQFHLWHPVLQFOXGLQJWKH*&&LWHPVIROORZHGE\%-:2

LWHPVDQGODVWO\WKHLWHPVRQJHQHUDOVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP7KHRWKHUKDOI UHFHLYHGWKLVRUGHULQUHYHUVH

 5HVSRQGHQWVZHUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKQLQHFRQÀGHQFHLWHPVDWDWLPHFRQVLVWLQJRI WKUHHLWHPVDERXWRQHFULPLQDO

MXVWLFHDJHQF\HJSROLFHIROORZHGE\WKUHHLWHPVDERXWDQRWKHUDJHQF\DQGVRRQ:LWKLQWKHVHVHWVZHDOVRPL[HG

WKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGSURFHGXUDOMXVWLFHLWHPVDVPXFKDVSRVVLEOH



*HQHUDOVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP

3HRSOH·VUHDFWLRQVWRDVSHFLÀFFDVHRI YLJLODQWLVPVXFKDVLQDYLJQHWWHLVH[SHFWHGWR

EHLQÁXHQFHGE\KRZWKH\YLHZYLJLODQWLVPLQJHQHUDO(LJKWLWHPVWKDWDLPWRPHDVXUH

JHQHUDOVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVPZHUHWKHUHIRUHLQFOXGHGVHH$SSHQGL[:HGHFLGHG

WRSUHVHQWDPL[RI LWHPVWKDWWRXFKXSRQYDULRXVDVSHFWVRI VXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP

LQFOXGLQJWKHGHVLUHWRSURVHFXWHYLJLODQWHVDVZHOODVDSSURYDORI YLJLODQWLVP2QHRI  WKHLWHPVVWHPVIURPD'XWFKVWXG\7HU9RHUWWKHRWKHUVDUHQHZ

%HOLHI LQDMXVWZRUOGIRURWKHUV

5HVHDUFK VXJJHVWV WKDW SHRSOH WHQG WR GLIIHU LQ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH\ EHOLHYH LQ

D MXVW ZRUOG VHH &KDSWHU  :H H[SHFW WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO OHYHO RI  EHOLHI  LQ D MXVW

ZRUOGSDUWLFXODUO\EHOLHI LQDMXVWZRUOGIRURWKHUV%-:2ZLOOLQÁXHQFHUHDFWLRQVWR

YLJLODQWLVPLQWKH%-:YLJLODQWLVPHYHQWVHTXHQFH7KLVVFDOHKDVEHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK

SXQLWLYH DWWLWXGHVDQG KDUVK UHDFWLRQV WR WKH VXIIHULQJRI  RWKHUV 6XWWRQ  'RXJODV

 :H FRQVWUXFWHG D %-:2 VFDOH EDVHG RQ D 'XWFK WUDQVODWLRQ /RGHZLMN[ 'H

.ZDDGVWHQLHW=RPHUHQ 3HWWHUVRQRI WKHRULJLQDO%HOLHI LQD-XVW:RUOGIRU

6HOI %-:6VFDOH/LSNXVHWDO$VWKHUHOLDELOLW\RI WKH'XWFK%-:6VFDOHZDV

PRGHVWơ ZHDGGHGWKUHHQHZLWHPVWRWKH%-:2PHDVXUH7KHÀQDOVHWRI  LWHPVFDQEHIRXQGLQ$SSHQGL[

 3LORWVWXG\

7KHRULJLQDOVHWXSRI WKHVWXG\ZDVWHVWHGLQDSLORWVWXG\WKHVHWXSWKDWZDVGHVFULEHG

LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQV LV WKH ÀQDO VHWXS ,Q WKH QH[W VHFWLRQV WKH JRDOV DQG PDLQ

ÀQGLQJVRI WKHSLORWVWXG\DUHSUHVHQWHG)RUFXUUHQWSXUSRVHVRQO\WKRVHDVSHFWVRI  WKHSLORWVWXG\WKDWZHUHUHOHYDQWIRUFKRLFHVDERXWWKHÀQDOVHWXSRI WKHÀQDOVWXG\

DUHDGGUHVVHG:HWKHUHIRUHUHIUDLQIURPDGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQRI WKHK\SRWKHVHVDQG

ÀQGLQJV

 *RDOV

7KHSXUSRVHRI WKHSLORWVWXG\ZDVWRSUHWHVWIRXUPDLQDVSHFWVRI WKHVWXG\GHVLJQ

)LUVW WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI  WKH PHDVXUHV ZDV H[DPLQHG $OWKRXJK PDQ\ RI  WKH YLJQHWWH

UHODWHGLWHPVZHUHDOVRXVHGLQRXUSUHYLRXVYLJQHWWHVWXG\WKHUHDUHDOVRQRYHOLWHPV

UHODWHGWRMXVWZRUOGWKHRU\7KHSLORWZDVXVHGWRWHVWWKHVHQHZLWHPVLQFRPELQDWLRQ

ZLWK WKH RQHV WKDW ZHUH XVHG EHIRUH &RQÀGHQFH LQ WKH FULPLQDO MXVWLFH V\VWHP DQG

JHQHUDOFRQFHUQRYHUFULPHZHUHQRWPHDVXUHGLQWKHSLORWVWXG\DVWKH\ZHUHDOUHDG\

WHVWHGLQRXUÀUVWVWXG\VHH&KDSWHU

$VHFRQGJRDORI WKHSLORWVWXG\ZDVWRFKHFNZKHWKHUWKHQHZVSDSHUDUWLFOHYLJQHWWHV

SUHVHQWHGLQWKHZZZQXQOIRUPDWDUHUHDOLVWLFDQGVHYHUHHQRXJKWRLQGXFHDYHUVLYH

VWDWHVLQRXUUHVSRQGHQWVDQGDVXEVHTXHQWXVHRI FRJQLWLYHVWUDWHJLHV)XUWKHUPRUH

ZHZHUHDEOHWRWHVWZKHWKHUWKHDYHUVLYHVWDWHUHVXOWLQJIURPUHDGLQJWKHÀUVWYLJQHWWH

DIIHFWVUHDFWLRQVWRWKHVHFRQGYLJQHWWH7KHSLORWDOVRPDGHLWSRVVLEOHWRREVHUYHWKH



HIIHFWVRI DGGLQJDSLFWXUHWR9LJQHWWH$SLFWXUHRI WKHFULPHVFHQHZDVH[SHFWHG

WR PDNH WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ FULPH PRUH HDVLO\ LPDJLQDEOH OHDGLQJ WR D KLJKHU DYHUVLYH

VWDWH7RWHVWWKLVDQRSLFWXUHYDULDWLRQZDVLQFOXGHGLQWKHSLORWVWXG\IRUWZRRI WKH

FRQGLWLRQV%%%%7KLVZD\LWFRXOGDOVREHHQVXUHGWKDWWKHSLFWXUHZDVQRW

WRRVKRFNLQJUHVXOWLQJLQPLVVLQJDQVZHUVRUDUHVSRQGHQWGURSRXW

7KHSLORWVWXG\DOVRSURYLGHGDFKDQFHWRWHVWWKHHIIHFWVRI WKHPDLQH[SHULPHQWDO

PDQLSXODWLRQV 7KH ÀUVW H[SHULPHQWDO IDFWRU W\SH RI  SUHFLSLWDWLQJ HYHQW KDG WZR

YDULDWLRQVLQWKHSLORWVWXG\YHUVLRQ$WUDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQDQGYHUVLRQ%SHGHVWULDQ

FUDVK 9HUVLRQ & ZDV FUHDWHG RQO\ DIWHU WKH SLORW VWXG\ DV ZLOO EH GHWDLOHG LQ WKH

QH[W VHFWLRQ 7KH HIIHFWV RI  WKH VHFRQG H[SHULPHQWDO IDFWRU SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU·V

VHQWHQFHRQUHDFWLRQVWRYLJLODQWLVPZHUHDOVRSUHWHVWHG7RNHHSWKHSLORWIHDVLEOHZH

GHFLGHGDJDLQVWRSHUDWLRQDOL]LQJDOOIRXUVHQWHQFLQJW\SHVIRU9LJQHWWH7DEOHJLYHV

DQRYHUYLHZRI WKHYLJQHWWHVWKDWZHUHVHOHFWHGIRUWKHSLORWVWXG\DQGWKHUHVSRQGHQW

GLVWULEXWLRQ)RUYHUVLRQ$WKHDFTXLWWDOOHQLHQWDQGVHYHUHVHQWHQFHVZHUHLQFOXGHGIRU

YHUVLRQ%WKHQRUPDOVHQWHQFHDQGDFTXLWWDO(DFKRI WKHIRXUVHQWHQFHVZDVWKHUHIRUH

LQFRUSRUDWHGDWOHDVWRQFH2QHRI WKHVHQWHQFHVDFTXLWWDOZDVRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGLQERWK

YHUVLRQV$DQG%VRWKDWWKHHIIHFWRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWRQVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP

FRXOGEHFRPSDUHGZKLOHKROGLQJWKHVHQWHQFHFRQVWDQW

7KHSLORWVWXG\ZDVIXUWKHUPRUHXVHGWRWHVWZKHWKHUPHDVXULQJSHRSOH·VDYHUVLYH

VWDWHDQGWKUHDWUHGXFLQJVWUDWHJLHVRQWZRRFFDVLRQVLQWHUIHUHVZLWKQDWXUDOSURFHVVHV

2QHJURXSRI UHVSRQGHQWVZDVWKHUHIRUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKDFRQWUROYLJQHWWH%;DV

GHVFULEHGDERYHLQ6HFWLRQLQZKLFKDOOLQIRUPDWLRQZDVFRPELQHGDQGIROORZHG

E\TXHVWLRQVDERXWWKHYLJLODQWLVPDFWRQO\

7DEOH 6HOHFWHGYLJQHWWHVVKDGHGDQGUHVSRQGHQWGLVWULEXWLRQ

9HUVLRQ 7\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJ

HYHQW

3UHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

VHQWHQFH

1

([SHULPHQWDOYLJQHWWHV

$$ 7UDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ DFTXLWWDO 

$$ 7UDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ OHQLHQW 

$$ 7UDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ QRUPDO

$$ 7UDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ VHYHUH 

%% 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK DFTXLWWDO 

%%QRSLFWXUH 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK DFTXLWWDO 

%% 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK OHQLHQW

%% 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK QRUPDO 

%%QRSLFWXUH 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK QRUPDO 

%% 3HGHVWULDQFUDVK VHYHUH

&RQWUROYLJQHWWH

%; 7UDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQ OHQLHQW 

7RWDO 



 'DWDUHVXOWVLPSOLFDWLRQV

7KHVDPSOHIRUWKHSLORWVWXG\FRQVLVWHGRI EDFKHORUVWXGHQWVZKRDWWHQGHGOHFWXUHV

DWYDULRXVGHSDUWPHQWVRI 988QLYHUVLW\$PVWHUGDPLQ-XQH^7KHPHDQDJHZDV

\HDUVSHUFHQWRI WKHVDPSOHZDVPDOH7KH\ZHUHUDQGRPO\DOORFDWHGWRRQHRI  WKHHLJKWFRQGLWLRQV

0HDVXUHV

7KH LWHPV PHDVXULQJ UHDFWLRQV WR WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ HYHQW DOO IRUPHG UHOLDEOH VFDOHV

UDQJLQJIURPWR&URQEDFK·Vơ7KHORZHVW&URQEDFK·VơZDVIRXQGIRUWKH

RXWUDJHDWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUVRDQH[WUDLWHPZDVDGGHGWRWKLVVHWLQWKHÀQDO

VWXG\7KHVFDOHVPHDVXULQJUHDFWLRQVWRYLJLODQWLVPZHUHDOVRUHOLDEOHDVWKH\UDQJHG

IURP&URQEDFK·Vơ WR7KHWZRSLORWHGDWWLWXGHVFDOHV%-:2&URQEDFK·Vơ

DQGJHQHUDOVXSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVP&URQEDFK·Vơ ZHUHDOVRUHOLDEOHDQG

MXGJHGVXLWDEOHIRUIXUWKHUXVH

5HDFWLRQVWR9LJQHWWH

%RWKW\SHVRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWVUHVXOWHGLQKLJKOHYHOVRI RXWUDJHDQGYLFWLPHPSDWK\

DPRQJRXUUHVSRQGHQWV7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHÀFWLWLRXVQHZVSDSHUDUWLFOHVVXFFHVVIXOO\

LQGXFHG DQ DYHUVLYH VWDWH $GGLWLRQDOO\ UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH IRXQG WR DSSO\ FRJQLWLYH

VWUDWHJLHV LQ DOO FRQGLWLRQV ZLWK WKH H[SHFWHG SUHIHUHQFH IRU WKH SXQLVKPHQW GHVLUH

WHFKQLTXH7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHYLFWLPVZHUHLQGHHGSHUFHLYHGDVLQQRFHQWDQGWKDW

LWZDVGLIÀFXOWWREODPHDQGGHURJDWHWKHP7KHSUHVHQFHRUDEVHQFHRI DSLFWXUHLQ

YHUVLRQ%GLGQRWDIIHFWWKHVHUHVSRQVHV$VZHGHHPWKDWWKHSLFWXUHDWOHDVWDGGVWR

WKHFUHGLELOLW\RI WKHDUWLFOHLWZDVLQFOXGHGIRUDOOWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWHVLQ

WKHÀQDOVWXG\VHH&KDSWHU 5HDFWLRQVWR9LJQHWWH

,QUHVSRQVHWRDOOYHUVLRQVRI 9LJQHWWHUHVSRQGHQWVH[SUHVVHGRXWUDJHDWYLJLODQWLVP

DVZHOODVHPSDWK\ZLWKLWVYLFWLPDOEHLWOHVVWKDQLQWKHFDVHRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW

9LJQHWWH  7KLV PDWFKHV RXU SUHGLFWLRQV %ODPH DQG GHURJDWLRQ ZDV XVHG PRUH

WKDQZDVWKHFDVHZLWKWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWYLJQHWWH7KLVZDVDOVRH[SHFWHGDVWKH

YLFWLP RI  YLJLODQWLVP LV HDVLHU WR EODPH DQG GHURJDWH GXH WR KLV SUHYLRXV UROH DV DQ

RIIHQGHU7KHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQLQWKHYLJLODQWLVPYLJQHWWHVGLGQRWDIIHFWWKH

GHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVDVVWURQJO\DVSUHGLFWHG7KHVHQWHQFHRI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHU

H[SHULPHQWDOIDFWRUGLGIRULQVWDQFHLQÁXHQFHRXWUDJHDWYLJLODQWLVPDVZHOODVEODPH

DQGGHURJDWLRQEXWRQO\LQUHVSRQVHWRWKHWUDIÀFDJJUHVVLRQSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQW$

DQGRQO\ZKHQFRPSDULQJWKHOHQLHQWVHQWHQFHZLWKWKHVHYHUHRQH)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUH

ZHUHQRHIIHFWVRQHPSDWK\ZLWKWKHYLFWLPRI YLJLODQWLVPLQDQ\RI WKHFRQGLWLRQV,Q

UHVSRQVHWRWKHYLJLODQWLVPYLJQHWWHVIROORZLQJYHUVLRQ%SHGHVWULDQFUDVKQRQHRI  WKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVGLIIHUHGEHWZHHQWKHWZRVHQWHQFLQJYDULDWLRQVDFTXLWWDODQG

 :HZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKH988QLYHUVLW\VWXGHQWVZKRSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKLVVWXG\DVZHOODVWKHWHDFKHUVZKRJDYH

XVSHUPLVVLRQWRDSSURDFKWKHVWXGHQWVGXULQJWKHLUOHFWXUHV



QRUPDO2QHH[SODQDWLRQ IRUWKHVHUHVXOWVLVWKDWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVHQWHQFHV

RI WKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUZHUHQRWODUJHHQRXJK)RUWKHPDLQVWXG\ZHWKHUHIRUH

LQFUHDVHGWKHVHQWHQFHVDQGPDGHWKHPPRUHGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHIURPHDFKRWKHU^

$VXUSULVLQJÀQGLQJLVWKDWRXWUDJHDWYLJLODQWLVPZDVUHODWLYHO\KLJKLQDOOFRQGLWLRQV

HYHQ LI  WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU KDG SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ DFTXLWWHG E\ WKH MXGJH $

FRQFHLYDEOHH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKLVLVWKDWWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQVHZDVQRWH[SHULHQFHGDV

VHYHUHHQRXJKWRMXVWLI\DVXEVHTXHQWYLJLODQWLVPDFW7RWHVWZKHWKHUWKLVLVWKHFDVH

DQH[WUDSUHFLSLWDWLQJFULPHZDVLQFOXGHGLQWKHPDLQVWXG\WKDWWHQGVWRHYRNHYHU\

HPRWLRQDOUHDFWLRQVWKHVH[XDODVVDXOWRI DFKLOGYHUVLRQ&9LJLODQWLVPLQUHVSRQVH

WRVXFKDKHLQRXVFULPHZDVH[SHFWHGWROHDGWROHVVRXWUDJHDWWKHYLJLODQWH7RWHVW

WKLVSUHGLFWLRQLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHRWKHUH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQERWKDOHQLHQW

DQGDVHYHUHVHQWHQFHFRQGLWLRQZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHPDLQVWXG\2QO\WZRRXWRI IRXU

VHQWHQFHVZHUHRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGDVWKHH[WUDSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWZDVPDLQO\PHDQWDVDQ

H[WUDFKHFNRI WKHLQÁXHQFHRI %-:UHVSRQVHVWRWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWRQVXSSRUW

IRUYLJLODQWLVP,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWLWZDVQRWSRVVLEOHWRSUHVHQWWKHH[DFWVDPH

VHQWHQFHVDVWKRVHJLYHQWRWKHRWKHUWZRSUHFLSLWDWLQJRIIHQGHUVDVDVXVSHQGHGGULYHU·V

OLFHQVHZDVIRULQVWDQFHQRWDSSOLFDEOHIRUDVH[RIIHQGHU:HQHYHUWKHOHVVWULHGWRPDNH

WKHVHYHULW\RI WKHVHQWHQFLQJOHYHOVDVFRPSDUDEOHDVSRVVLEOH

&RQWUROJURXS

$FRPSDULVRQRI WKHFRQWUROFRQGLWLRQ%;ZLWKLWVH[SHULPHQWDOFRXQWHUSDUW% UHYHDOHGQRGLIIHUHQFHVIRUDQ\RI WKHUHDFWLRQVWRYLJLODQWLVPEHWZHHQWKRVHFRQGLWLRQV

7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWRXUVWXG\GHVLJQGLGQRWLQWHUIHUHZLWKWKHQDWXUDOO\RFFXUULQJ%-:

SURFHVVHV7RFKHFNIRUWKLVLQWKHPDLQVWXG\FRQWUROJURXSVZHUHLQFOXGHGWKHUHWRR

 &RQFOXVLRQ

,Q WKLV FKDSWHU ZH SUHVHQWHG D VLPSOLÀHG %-: YLJLODQWLVP HYHQW VHTXHQFH DQG

VXEVHTXHQWO\RSHUDWLRQDOL]HGLWLQDQHPSLULFDOVWXG\:HLQWURGXFHGDTXDVLH[SHULPHQWDO

GHVLJQZLWKWZRPDQLSXODWLRQVWKHW\SHRI SUHFLSLWDWLQJHYHQWDQGWKHIRUPDOVHQWHQFH

IRU WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ RIIHQGHU :H DGGLWLRQDOO\ SUHVHQWHG WKH PHDVXUHV UHODWHG WR WKH

YLJQHWWHVLQ3DUW,RI WKHVWXG\6XSSRUWIRUYLJLODQWLVPZDVRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGE\PHDVXULQJ

HPRWLRQDO UHDFWLRQV WR YLJLODQWLVP HJ RXWUDJH WKH XVH RI  EODPH DQG GHURJDWLRQ

WHFKQLTXHVHJEODPLQJWKHYLJLODQWLVPYLFWLPDVZHOODVGHVLUHGSXQLVKPHQWIRUWKH

YLJLODQWH:HDOVRLQWURGXFHGWKHDWWLWXGHPHDVXUHVWKDWPDNHXS3DUW,,RI WKHVWXG\

LQFOXGLQJDQDVVHVVPHQWRI FRQÀGHQFHLQWKHFULPLQDOMXVWLFHV\VWHP

$IWHUH[SODLQLQJWKHVWXG\GHVLJQZHFRQGXFWHGDSLORWVWXG\WRSUHWHVWVRPHRI  WKHPDLQFRPSRQHQWV$OOLQDOOWKHÀQGLQJVRI WKLVSLORWVWXG\VXJJHVWWKDWRXUVWXG\

GHVLJQLVVXLWDEOHIRUFXUUHQWSXUSRVHV$IWHUPDNLQJDIHZPLQRUDGMXVWPHQWVWKHÀQDO

VWXG\ZDVFDUULHGRXW,QWKHQH[WFKDSWHUZHZLOOSUHVHQWWKHVDPSOHGDWDFROOHFWLRQ

DQGÀQGLQJV

 7KHVHQWHQFHVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHDQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJYLJQHWWHVLQ$SSHQGL[DUHWKRVHWKDWZHUH

XVHGLQWKHÀQDOVWXG\&KDSWHU