William. M. Lapenta
Acting Director
Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP
With contributions from many EMC Staff ……
N C E P
Overview of the NCEP
Environmental Modeling Center
with an Emphasis on Climate
The EMC Mission…..
Develop and Enhance numerical guidance
– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via :
• Scientific upgrades
• Optimization
• Additional observations
Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations
– Transform & integrate
• Code
• Algorithms
• Techniques
– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation
Maintain operational model suite
– The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems
EMC location within the funnel
In response to operational requirements:
45%
25%
30%
Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty
Minutes Minutes
Hours Hours
Days Days
1 Week 1 Week
2 Week 2 Week
Months Months
Seasons Seasons
Years Years
NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Weather and Climate
F o re ca st L ea d T im e F o re ca st L ea d T im e
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert Coordination Coordination Watches Watches Forecasts Forecasts Threats Assessments
Guidance Guidance Outlook Outlook
Benefits
NCEP Model Perspective
Maritime Maritime Life & Property
Life & Property
Space Operations Space Operations
Recreation Recreation
Ecosystem Ecosystem
Environment Environment Emergency Mgm
t
Emergency Mgm t
Agriculture Agriculture Reservoir Control Reservoir Control Energy Planning
Energy Planning Com
merce Com
merce
Hydropower Hydropower Fire Weather
Fire Weather
Health Health Aviation
Aviation
•North American Ensemble Forecast System
•Climate Forecast System
•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
•Global Forecast System
•North American Mesoscale
•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation
•Dispersion Models for DHS
•Global Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane WRF & GFDL Waves
Real Time Ocean Forecast System
Space Weather
Tsunami
Time of the day (utc)
N u m b e r o f N o de s
00 06 12 18
Development Work January 2010
High Water Mark Fence
Production Suite on Supercomputer
Time of the day (utc)
N u m b e r o f N o de s
00 06 12 18
Development Work
Production Suite on Supercomputer
December 2010
High Water Mark Fence
Capacity Change:
50% increase in production
80% decrease in development
Time of the day (utc)
N u m b e r o f N o de s
00 06 12 18
Development Work on Supercomputer
December 2010
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015-1057.
doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
Attribute Operational (Since 2004) Jan 2011
Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km
Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds
100 km/64 levels Variable CO2
AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S
1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global
¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model
(LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM
No separate land data assim
4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background
Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)
124/month (week 3-6)
Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS)
Planned for Q2FY11
9 Month Seasonal 45 Day
Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V2 (FY11)
0 UTC 6 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
A total of 16 CFS runs every day – 4 runs @ 9 months length – 3 runs @ 1 season
– 9 runs @ 45 days
WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar
Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2
WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational
CFS Operational
CFS V2
CFS V2
WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar
WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec
S ki ll S ki ll S ki ll S ki ll
Days
Days
Days
Days
Increasing Domination of
Ensemble Based Model Systems
• Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities
– International MME products (with EUROSIP) – NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL
Climate Model+NCAR CSM
• Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts
– WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM
• Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
– GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS
Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS
Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period
(7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)
