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APPENDICES

Appendix 1 Graphs of the data series

Appendix 2 Rolling ADF statistic - value added Appendix 3 Recursive ADF statistic - value added Appendix 4 Rolling ADF statistic - labour productivity Appendix 5 Recursive ADF statistic - labour productivity Appendix 6 Rolling ADF statistic - total factor productivity Appendix 7 Recursive ADF statistic - total factor productivity Appendix 8 Test for a change in persistence

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APPENDIX 1 GRAPHS OF THE DATA SERIES

A1.1 Total value added

5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 GDP -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 GDP

A1.2 Value added agriculture

5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 AGRICULTURE -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 AGRICULTURE

A1.3 Value added industry

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A1.4 Value added services 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 SERVICES -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 SERVICES

A1.5 Value added / worker

5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WGDP -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WGDP A1.6 Value added / worker agriculture

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A1.7 Value added / worker industry 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WINDUS -.20 -.16 -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 .16 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WINDUS

A1.8 Value added / worker services

6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WSERV -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 VA_WSERV

A1.9 Total factor productivity

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APPENDIX 2 VALUE ADDED – ROLLING ADF STATISTIC Total value added

A2.1 – 15 year interval A2.2 – 20 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFGDP CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFGDP CV

A2.3 – 25 year interval A2.4 – 30 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFGDP CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFGDP CV

A2.5 – 35 year interval A2.6 – 40 year interval

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Agriculture value added

A2.7 – 15 year interval A2.8 – 20 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFAGRI CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFAGRI CV

A2.9 – 25 year interval A2.10 – 30 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFAGRI CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFAGRI CV

A2.11 – 35 year interval A2.12 – 40 year interval

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Industry value added

A2.13 – 15 year interval A2.14 – 20 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFINDUS CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFINDUS CV

A2.15 – 25 year interval A2.16 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFINDUS CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFINDUS CV

A2.17 – 35 year interval A2.18 – 40 year interval

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Services value added

A2.19 – 15 year interval A2.20 – 20 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFSERV CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFSERV CV

A2.21 – 25 year interval A2.22 – 30 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFSERV CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFSERV CV

A2.23 – 35 year interval A2.24 – 40 year interval

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APPENDIX 3 VALUE ADDED – RECURSIVE ADF STATISTIC Total value added

A3.1 – 20 year interval

-5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFGDP CV

A3.2 – 25 year interval

-5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFGDP CV

A3.3 – 30 year interval

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Agriculture

A3.4 – 20 year interval

-5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFAGRI CV

A3.5 – 25 year interval

-5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFAGRI CV

A3.6 – 30 year interval

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Industry

A3.7 – 20 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFINDUS CV

A3.8 – 25 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFINDUS CV

A3.9 – 30 year interval

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Services

A3.10 – 20 year interval

-5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFSERV CV

A3.11 – 25 year interval

-5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFSERV CV

A3.12 – 30 year interval

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APPENDIX 4 LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY – ROLLING ADF STATISTIC Total VA / worker

A4.1 – 15 year interval A4.2 – 20 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WGDP CV15 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WGDP CV20

A4.3 – 25 year interval A4.4 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WGDP CV25 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WGDP CV30

A4.5 – 35 year interval A4.6 – 40 year interval

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Agriculture VA / worker

A4.7 – 15 year interval A4.8 – 20 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WAGRI CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WAGRI CV A4.9 – 25 year interval A4.10 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WAGRI CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WAGRI CV A4.11 – 35 year interval A4.12 – 40 year interval

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Industry VA / worker

A4.13 – 15 year interval A4.14 – 20 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WINDUS CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WINDUS CV A4.15 – 25 year interval A4.16 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WINDUS CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WINDUS CV A4.17 – 35 year interval A4.18 – 40 year interval

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Services VA / worker

A4.19 – 15 year interval A4.20 – 20 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WSERV CV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WSERV CV A4.21 – 25 year interval A4.22 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WSERV CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFVA_WSERV CV A4.23 – 35 year interval A4.24 – 40 year interval

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APPENDIX 5 LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY – RECURSIVE ADF STATISTIC Total VA / worker

A5.1 – 20 year interval

-5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WGDP CV

A5.2 – 25 year interval

-5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WGDP CV

A5.3 – 30 year interval

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Agriculture VA / worker

A5.4 – 20 year interval

-5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WAGRI CV

A5.5 – 25 year interval

-5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WAGRI CV

A5.6 – 30 year interval

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Industry VA / worker

A5.7 – 20 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WINDUS CV

A5.8 – 25 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WINDUS CV

A5.9 – 30 year interval

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Services VA / worker

A5.10 – 20 year interval

-6.0 -5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WSERV CV

A5.11 – 25 year interval

-6.0 -5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFVA_WSERV CV

A5.12 – 30 year interval

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APPENDIX 6 TFP – ROLLING ADF STATISTIC Total economy

A6.1 – 15 year interval A6.2 – 20 year interval

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFP CV -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFP CV

A6.3 – 25 year interval A6.4 – 30 year interval

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFP CV -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFP CV

A6.5 – 35 year interval A6.6 – 40 year interval

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Manufacturing

A6.7 – 15 year interval A6.8 – 20 year interval

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFPMANU CV -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFPMANU CV A6.9 – 25 year interval A6.10 – 30 year interval

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFMANU CV25 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 ROLADFTFPMANU CV A6.11 – 35 year interval A6.12 – 40 year interval

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APPENDIX 7 TFP – RECURSIVE ADF STATISTIC Total economy

A7.1 – 20 year interval

-7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFTFP CV

A7.2 – 25 year interval

-6.8 -6.4 -6.0 -5.6 -5.2 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFTFP CV

A7.3 – 30 year interval

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Manufacturing

A7.4 – 20 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFTFPMANU CV

A7.5 – 25 year interval

-4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 RECADFTFPMANU CV

A7.6 – 30 year interval

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APPENDIX 8 TEST FOR A CHANGE IN PERSISTENCE

Table A8.1 Total value added

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 7.19** 19.81*** 45.33*** 4.77** 8.41** 23.37**

10% 3.23 4.46* 14.29* 0.91 0.39 2.21

5% 2.30 2.60 9.12 0.44 0.13 0.89

Constant and trend included

Kim 6.61*** 20.64*** 49.39*** 3.75** 11.48*** 31.01***

10% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

where *** indicates rejecting the null hypothesis at a 1% significance level and ** and * indicate rejecting the null hypothesis at 5% and 10% respectively.

Table A8.2 Value added agriculture

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 1.47 0.85 3.50 1.98 3.84* 15.34*

10% 1.06 0.46 2.18 1.23 1.58 7.77

5% 0.92 0.37 1.82 1.00 1.15 5.98

Constant and trend included

Kim 2.76* 13.40*** 34.97*** 7.51*** 24.08*** 56.35***

10% 0.06 0.04 0.30 0.10 0.03 0.24

5% 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.02

Table A8.3 Value added industry

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 5.13** 9.27** 23.46** 12.61*** 56.85*** 121.86***

10% 0.63 0.19 1.14 1.90 1.68 8.21

5% 0.26 0.05 0.35 0.84 0.48 2.90

Constant and trend included

Kim 6.95*** 20.45*** 49.00*** 4.84*** 16.25*** 40.61***

10% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table A8.4 Value added services

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 5.40** 39.13*** 86.44*** 1.47 1.80 8.33

10% 3.24 15.11* 41.38* 0.24 0.06 0.63

5% 2.61 10.71** 31.07** 0.11 0.02 0.23 Constant and trend included

Kim 7.56*** 21.58*** 51.18*** 3.69** 11.89*** 31.86***

10% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Table A8.5 Value added / worker MS ME MX MSR MER MXR Constant included Kim 1.66 0.98 4.24 1.09 0.86 5.51 10% 1.02 0.39 2.10 0.26 0.06 0.70 5% 0.83 0.28 1.60 0.14 0.02 0.32

Constant and trend included

Kim 7.22*** 28.13*** 64.42*** 5.31*** 14.04*** 36.18***

10% 0.74 0.86 3.69 0.00 0.00 0.00

5% 0.26 0.20 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table A8.6 Value added / worker agriculture

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 2.60 1.63 7.09 1.37 3.11 12.59

10% 1.55 0.62 3.36 0.42 0.34 2.33

5% 1.25 0.44 2.52 0.25 0.16 1.22

Constant and trend included

Kim 1.65 4.12*** 15.68*** 3.21** 2.24** 7.32*

10% 0.44 0.55 2.99 1.54 0.70 2.91

5% 0.24 0.24 1.42 1.05 0.43 1.83

Table A8.7 Value added / worker industry

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 6.79** 7.92** 20.52** 12.68*** 54.40*** 116.88***

10% 0.79 0.14 0.92 1.47 0.99 5.45

5% 0.32 0.03 0.27 0.58 0.24 1.67

Constant and trend included

Kim 12.06*** 35.68*** 79.52*** 15.98*** 51.22*** 110.63***

10% 0.23 0.08 0.53 0.16 0.04 0.35

5% 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02

Table A8.8 Value added / worker services

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 4.12* 7.26** 20.42** 2.31 3.02 10.45

10% 3.17 4.43* 13.94* 0.15 0.02 0.21

5% 2.83 3.71 12.02 0.05 0.00 0.05

Constant and trend included

Kim 2.74* 7.81*** 23.17*** 10.81*** 30.35*** 68.89***

10% 0.19 0.13 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Table A8.9 Total factor productivity MS ME MX MSR MER MXR Constant included Kim 4.21* 7.54** 21.17** 0.88 0.85 6.05 10% 3.45 5.20* 15.87* 0.22 0.06 0.83 5% 3.16 4.54 14.19 0.12 0.03 0.39

Constant and trend included

Kim 8.30*** 27.13*** 62.42*** 3.91** 10.49*** 29.03***

10% 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00

5% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table A8.10 Total factor productivity manufacturing

MS ME MX MSR MER MXR

Constant included

Kim 4.08* 15.88*** 39.32*** 19.25*** 153.64*** 315.43***

10% 0.94 1.02 4.70 9.86* 44.19* 121.50*

5% 0.50 0.38 2.06 7.37** 28.34** 84.07**

Constant and trend included

Kim 3.75** 8.31*** 23.84*** 4.31*** 5.00*** 15.56***

10% 1.06 1.19 4.83 0.57 0.21 1.23

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APPENDIX 9 CRITICAL VALUE TABLES

Table A9.1 Critical values – Recursive and rolling ADF test statistics

Recursive Rolling T = 100 Percentile tDF ˆmax DF t ˆmin DF t max DF t min DF t 0.025 -3.73 -2.21 -4.62 -1.66 -5.29 0.050 -3.45 -1.99 -4.33 -1.49 -5.01 0.100 -3.15 -1.73 -4.00 -1.31 -4.71

Table A9.2 Critical values – Test for a change in persistence

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