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– January 25, 2012 Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET January 19

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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

January 19 – January 25, 2012

Localized moderate rainfall was observed along the Gulf of Honduras in Guatemala and Belize.

1) Due to the past passage of several cold fronts, temperatures have fallen below freezing and have negatively impacted crops in portions of western Guatemala. With

temperatures forecast to be below freezing during the next week, additional negative impacts on crops could be observed.

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MFEWS is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The MFEWS weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by MFEWS field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries such as, INETER of Nicaragua, Meteorological Service of Honduras, IMN of Costa Rica, INSIVUMEH of Guatemala, ETESA of Panama, NMS of Belize and SNET of El Salvador. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7566. Questions about the USAID MFEWS activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for MFEWS, 1-202-219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Light rainfall was recorded across much of Central America with localized moderate rain observed along the Gulf of Honduras.

During the last seven days, rainfall was light across much of Central America. The light rain contrasted with heavier rains during previous weeks that fell in, at least, one location along the Caribbean coastline of Central America. The heaviest rains (30-60 mm) during the past week were observed in Belize and the Izabal department of Guatemala. Elsewhere, light rains (1-15 mm) prevailed. The lack of rain along the Caribbean coastline of Nicaragua and Costa Rica led to weekly rainfall deficits between 20-50 mm and turned thirty-day rainfall anomalies negative across much of Costa Rica. Apante season rainfall remains close to average across much of Central America with surpluses existing across Belize, northern Guatemala and central/eastern Nicaragua. Deficits remain, though, across localized areas in southeastern Costa Rica. With regards to temperatures, several cold fronts during the past week have led to below-average temperatures across Guatemala, with the coldest temperatures located in western Guatemala. The cold temperatures negatively affected crops in southwestern portions of Guatemala.

For the next seven days, models suggest zonal east to west flow across Central America. Precipitation totals are expected to be light to moderate (10-30 mm) across much of the Caribbean coastline of Central America with localized areas in Nicaragua receiving higher rainfall totals (> 30 mm).

Below-average temperatures are also forecast for the next week across Central America with the coldest temperatures expected across southwestern portions of Guatemala.

Seven-Day Rainfall Forecast (mm) January 18 – January 25, 2011

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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