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Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook October 1

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

Climate Prediction Center’s Hispaniola Hazards Outlook October 1 – October 7, 2015

Locally Heavy and more widespread rainfall has been observed; Improving moisture deficits for some areas

Several departments of Haiti and many provinces in the Dominican Republic received heavy rainfall this past week. The heaviest rains fell over Ouest and Centre departments of Haiti, as well as neighboring provinces of the Dominican Republic, also including La Vega and Monseñor Novel provinces. Rainfall totals greater than 100mm were observed in these areas, with greater than 200mm observed in Centre department of Haiti according to TRMM estimates. Areas along the northern coast of Hispaniola received much lighter, and in some cases, very little, rainfall. Over the previous 90-day period (since June 30), rainfall continues to run anywhere from near-normal in the center of Hispaniola to less than 50%

of normal in coastal regions. The prolonged dryness continues to negatively impact ground conditions. Vegetation indices indicate that conditions remain very poor, especially in the north and east. Some improvement is being observed to the south. During the coming outlook period, rainfall is expected to be generally below average. This is the projected pattern resulting from the presence of El Nino conditions. The GFS model indicates that the best chance for heavy rainfall this coming week is over higher elevations of central Dominican Republic. There is little threat from tropical cyclone activity during the outlook period.

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NO HAZARDS

Rainfall totals greater than 200mm were recorded in parts of central Haiti according to TRMM Estimates.. Some reports of flooding have come out of the Ouest