Climate adaptable water policies
A case study on how policies can be implemented in the Blue Nile basin
that are resistant to future climate change.
There is a growing pressure on the world’s freshwater bodies due to a growing population, economic development and climate change. The water security of the countries in Blue Nile basin will most likely be negatively affected by the changing climatic conditions. A growing demand and decreasing supply of water results in conflicts on different scales. Effective water policies can contribute to a more equal division, which reliefs the tensions between the different stakeholders. However, the current centralized governments of Ethiopia and Egypt are an opposing force against the realization of such policies. Nevertheless, the NBI (Nile Basin Initiative), an institution that acts on basin level, is making progress in creating policies, which are adaptable to the growing pressure on water resources. This is achieved by working on cooperation programs, based on governance processes that include different stakeholders.
Mees Kuiper
10784381
Uva Amsterdam
Future Planet Studies
Major: Urban planning
Bachelor thesis: Political Ecology
Andres Verzijl
Content page
1. Introduction………. p. 1 2. Conceptual framework ……….. p. 3
2.1 Hydro politics……….. p. 4
2.2 Climate change effects on water security……….. p. 5
2.3 Adaptation policies………. p. 7
3. Questions……….. p. 9
4. Methodology……….. p. 10
4.1 Data: collection & material……… p. 10
4.2 Stakeholder analysis……… p.10
4.3Policy Analysis……….. p.11
Results
5. How hydropolitics shape conflicts between different stakeholders……… p. 12
5.1 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)……..………..………. p. 13
5.2 The Egyptian perspective………..… p. 13
5.3 The Ethiopian perspective………..………. p. 13
5.4 Local conflicts………. p. 14
5.4.1.1 Egypt’s governmental structure……….………. p. 14
5.4.1.2 Egypt’s internal conflicts……….………. p. 15
5.4.2.1 Ethiopia’s governmental structure……….….. p. 15
5.4.2.2 Ethiopia’s internal conflicts……….……… p. 16
6. Climate change: A cause of conflicts……… p. 17
6.1 Climate change impacts for Egypt……….……….. p. 17
6.2 Climate change impacts for Ethiopia………..……….. p. 18
7. The transition to adaptation………..……... p. 20 7.1 GERD: A catalyzer for cooperation?... p. 20 7.2 Adaptation policies in the Blue Nile basin………... p. 20
7.3 A new water paradigm………. p. 21
7.3.1 Nile Basin Initiative………... p. 21
8. Conclusion………. p. 24
9. Discussion………... p. 25
10. References……… p. 26
1. Introduction
No live exists without water. Therefore throughout the history water has always been the most important factor for human settlements. Inevitably, water has also been a subject for conflict throughout history. The number of conflicts over water is rising (Priscoli & Wolf, 2009). This is mainly because of a growing pressure on the world’s water resources. The most important factors for this growing pressure are climate change and an increase in domestic water use, both driven by population growth and economic development (Falkenmark & Widstrand, 1992; Alcamo et al., 2007). In different places around the number of water related conflicts are on the rise. In India there is an increasing number of farmers committing suicides because of poor agricultural conditions, caused by insufficient rainfall. India is in conflict with China over the Brahmaputra River, because India is dependent on this water for their industrial sector. Israel and Palestine are fighting over water. Las Vegas faces water shortages because of pumping aquifers empty and so on. One place in particular faces intense struggles over water. The countries in the Nile basin are faced with continuous conflict. The problem is that these conflicts will increase due to population growth, economic development and climate change. This will only put more pressure on the available amount of water. Therefore, this paper will take the region of the Blue Nile basin as a case study to look for possible solutions in the water conflicts in this area, with a focus on the conflicts caused by climate change.
In this region Egypt has been the main consumer of the Nile water for ages. Water is the prominent factor for the development of civilizations in Egypt, as well for other countries. From agriculture to religious purposes, water has always been at the basis. Approximately fifty years ago the Ethiopians started to develop and using the Nile water more intensively, which caused increasing tensions between the two countries. Already in the 1980’s several Egyptian diplomats stated that the next subject Egypt will go to war over is water (Gleick, 1991). This stresses the importance of water for the Egyptians and the surrounding countries. These statements also show the importance of politics in controlling and securing water basins/flows.
In 2011 Ethiopia started the building of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). As the name reflects, this dam will lead to a rebirth of Ethiopia through economic development. This project, together with several other dams in Sudan, is reshaping the political relationships between the Nile basin countries. While the GERD dam mainly fuels international conflict and is all over the news, probably because of it’s size, the building of the dams in Sudan are causing primarily conflict between different population groups within Sudan itself (Bosshard, 2011). In the course of the last decennia, the building contracts of the dams were sold to mainly chinese, german and french companies. Despite boosting the electricity generating capacity of the concerned countries, tens of thousands of people were displaced and often still don’t have access to clean water (Bosshard, 2011). Especially with the dams built by Chinese contractors there are often social and environmental setbacks (McDonald et al., 2009).
The question that is the basis for this whole project is: Who controls the Nile? Of course this is a very complicated question to answer. Egypt will argue that there is an agreement, which states that they have the right on a disproportionate share of the water. However, Ethiopia was not included in this agreement (Abdalla, 1971). On the other hand, Ethiopia states that the GERD is necessary to combat poverty. Sudan will probably use the same arguments of development, when the country starts developing and will begin building large dams. In 2015 the Agreement on Declaration of Principles was signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. The key points in this agreement are vague, explanations and exact numbers are not included. Therefore, it is difficult to build policies around these principles (Bayeh, 2016). However, the agreement can work as a step forward in cooperation between the three
countries.
Several proposals have been made to create a system/discourse to make suitable policies (Hissen et al., 2017). As mentioned above, this is not an easy problem to solve, but let’s suppose the countries come to an agreement. How do these policies integrate future changes? A key theme in future policies is climate change. The policies concerning resources that are susceptible to climate change need to be flexible in some sorts because they need to cope with change. For example, what will happen if a drought occurs in Ethiopia, Sudan or Egypt? How will this affect the division of the Nile water then? First of all, when climate change is not incorporated, it can threaten the efficacy of the policies at that moment. For example, when heavy rainfall, which causes increased floods, is not
addressed in the policies, what will happen when these floods do occur? There will probably be a lot of people left not knowing how to cope with the consequences of these floods. What are their rights? How can they best drain the water? How can they adapt to future floods? Another example, which will be more difficult to address because of a shortage rather than a surplus of water, are droughts. Assuming there will be an agreement between the Blue Nile basin countries and a certain division of the water is established. Egypt has used more than 80% of the Nile water for decennia and this will most definitely change with time because of the development of the upstream countries (Conway, 1996). If there is a drought in Egypt, what will be the division of the Nile water than? Ethiopia will not just give a share of its water if this is not stated in the policies.
Several climate events can threaten the livelihoods of people in several ways. With increasing events of heavy rainfall, the number of flash floods will probably increase. These can be dangerous for housing, as most of the buildings are built along the Nile. Exact numbers will differ per region, however the larger share of houses is built in close proximity of the Nile. These flash floods are related with droughts, because the runoff in dry areas is greater (Pinder & jones, 1969). Droughts will probably be the most dangerous climate events that can happen in the Nile basin. Water shortages can directly affect livelihoods with shortages of drinking water. Indirectly other areas will also be affected because the agricultural sector will be harmed (Deressa, 2011).
The goal is to analyze the motives of the different countries regarding the division of water. These motives can range from historical usage to providing inhabitants with a sufficient amount of water on a daily basis. Hydro politics play an important part in the division of water. Therefore this paper will look at how the different political approaches influence water conflicts and what the contribution of climate change is to these conflicts. The concept of hydropolitics and hydro hegemony are therefore important to use in this context. Different countries and different actors probably have different views on first of all how to manage water but maybe also on the nature of water and how it can be appropriated. These differences in cultural resonance are the cause of different ways of framing problems (Buijs et al., 2011). This thesis will focus on Egypt and Ethiopia, because Sudan is still recovering from a civil war and the separation of South Sudan. This has had major impacts on the political situation in the country and also on water related policies. Furthermore, the conflicts over water are mainly between Ethiopia and Egypt.
The main threat for current policies is that the climate change events are not discussed in the policies. It can also occur that they are incorporated but are insufficient. In both cases the consequences can be disastrous. A problem in this case is that the long-‐term consequences of such events are not entirely known, which makes it difficult to make sufficient policies (Kotb, 2000). Another problem is the perception of the different stakeholders. For example, education can have a significant impact on the measures farmers take to adapt to climate change (Deressa, 2011). These factors influence the sufficiency of policies and therefore also influence the way in which these climate changes are incorporated in the policies. Furthermore, all these differences in perceptions and structures of countries will impact the water security in the Nile basin. In order to implement an efficient system to manage the water, these differences need to be set aside.
First of all a comprehensive body of concepts will be discussed in the theoretical framework. This section will form the pillars on which this thesis is based. Not only will concepts be explained, but also contingencies regarding the concepts will be addressed. Hereon after, the main-‐ and sub questions of the thesis will be represented and explained. Thereafter, the methodological chapter will clarify which methods are used. It will explain why stakeholder-‐ and policy analyses are chosen and elaborate on the data collection. The results will be branched in three chapters, according to the three sub questions. The first of the three will discuss hydro politics and how these influence conflicts in the Blue Nile basin. The second chapter addresses the contribution of climate change to these conflicts. The last of the three discusses how adaptation policies contribute to policies that can cope with future change. After the results there will be a discussion section where possible complementations to the thesis are represented. This will be followed by the conclusion.
2. Conceptual framework
Within the boundaries of water planning there are several concepts that this thesis will discuss and use to answer the main question. The main paradigm that is used is that of political ecology. This addresses the relationships between the political, social and environmental disciplines (Le Billon, 2001). To be more precise, how politics influence the way in which natural resources are being exploited. The involved disciplines are intertwined and therefore can’t be addressed separately. For example, places like the Serengeti and Masai Mara in east Kenya or the Galapagos islands in Ecuador are often viewed as ‘the last wild environmental spaces remaining on the earth’. However, humans play, and have played, a very important role in sustaining these systems. The far majority of current ‘natural’ environments and the problems related with these systems are human driven. Therefore it would be nonsensical to leave the human influences out of the debate. The term ‘environmental problem’ is because of this also debatable. In what way are these problems more environmental than social or political? As with most of these problems, there is a whole political structure behind the exact causes of these issues as well as for the solutions to these problems.
A concept related to, but not fully in line with, political ecology is that of a social ecological system. As the name indicates, the social and ecological systems are inseparable. Ostrom (2009) defines a social-‐ ecological system (SES) based on four subsystems. Who or what can be accounted to a certain subsystem is depending on the scale of the problem. In the context of this paper the resource system is the whole Blue Nile basin. The resource unit is the water in this basin, because this is the focus of the paper. The governance system is difficult to define. The most obvious answer would be the governments of the related countries because these have the most legislative power in this area. Later in this paper, it will become clear why this nomination of the governance system is incorrect. The users in this system can form an almost endless list. From farmers, to industries to local people, almost everybody is somehow involved in this system, which makes it a difficult task to manage. A side note to this description of a SES is that it is often viewed from a managerial perspective, where ‘if managed correctly’ natural resources are regulated. This view sometimes neglects the deep, nested political structures that are part of the system. Allen (2005) explains how water security questions and the management of water are incontestably politically. Because water security is such a vital part of the functioning of a country it is inevitable that it is non-‐political.
Problems that are addressed, from within this political ecology perspective, are often called ‘wicked problems’. Besides all the interdisciplinary connections described above there are several other aspects that make them ‘wicked’. One of these aspects is the definition of the problem, because this is important for the solutions that are sought for. Because wicked problems don’t have a clear definition, there are no possible right or wrong solutions. Instead they depend on the collective judgment of the parties involved.
For instance, climate change is such a comprehensive concept, which makes it difficult to address. The term wicked is used because there are no solutions that can solve this problem, because the problem acts on different scales and is multidisciplinary and multi-‐interpretable (Rittel & Webber, 1973). The solutions that are sought for are largely dependent on definition of the problem. Furthermore, there are other problems that might occur. Which evaluation criteria are used? In the case of measuring the impacts of climate change, what criteria are used? Is it defined in monetary damages, or do we define it as the ecosystem services that are harmed? The way in which these problems are defined are influenced by a lot of aspects and have a lot to do with cultural politics, which will be described later in the theoretical section.
Figure 1: Schematic overview of conceptual framework
2.1 Hydro Politics
A concept that can be categorized within political ecology is the so-‐called hydro social territories concept. This is referred to as the interaction between humans, water basins and institutions that occur around the management of water. For example within the case of the Nile basin, there are several actors/institutions that constantly make claims on the use of water from the Nile. These different actors have different motives for the choices they make, often driven by their own meanings and norms. Often conflicts over water are therefore conflicts between norms, meaning, knowledge and different discourses (Boelens et al., 2016). This is especially the case with transboundary water conflicts, because there are often several different cultures involved. Differences in legislation and power relations have an influence on how hydro social territories are shaped. This can result in inequalities in the decision-‐making process and distribution of water (Seemann, 2016).
These hydro social territories are susceptible to constant change. This is enhanced by the increased change of geopolitics due to climate change (Haldén, 2007). On the one hand, international water security may be influenced. On the other hand, local communities will face more extreme events in the future. The wealthier states or institutions will be more adapt to face the consequence. The underdeveloped countries will suffer. Especially in African countries, even small climate change events are enough to trigger droughts (Podesta & Ogden, 2008).
Allan (2009) defines several different asymmetries in the Nile basin. The first one being that the upstream countries provide a substantial large amount of water compared to their uptake, in comparison with the downstream countries. Secondly, the upstream countries have large amounts of groundwater compared to the downstream countries. This water is more difficult to share than surface water. The third asymmetry is the adaptive capacity to water scarcity of the riparian countries. Egypt has been adapting for several decennia, while the other countries are left behind in this process. A consequence of this higher adaptive capacity, which can be seen as another asymmetry, is a difference in power relations. Egypt is often seen as a so-‐called ‘hegemon’ in this basin, although this last asymmetry can be contested if it comes to a military conflict.
As aforementioned, Egypt is the main consumer of the Nile water, however with time Ethiopia started developing and using an increasing amount of water, which has its impact for Sudan and Egypt. This has its influence on the geopolitics of this area, from military threats to cooperation plans (Swain, 1997). This is the point that the paper will focus on: how policies (politics) can adapt to the increased pressure of climate change.
As stated it is a difficult challenge to divide water and especially water from international rivers. Aspects like historical use are often used to claim this water. However, there are more aspects that play an important role in the division of water. For example, the power of a country can have a substantial impact on the fairness of the division of water (Zeitoun & Allan, 2008). Countries with a so called hydro-‐hegemony often have more structural power in the decision making process for policies, where riparian states must face the often unequal consequences (Daoudy, 2008). This concept will be reflected on the case of the Nile basin where it is stated that Egypt has a hydro hegemony in the Nile basin, although this hegemony can be contested. Non-‐hegemonic countries can challenge in this case Egypt, for example by building a dam, in order to force a more equitable division of the water
Political ecology
Hydro politics
Hydro social
territories hegemony Hydro assymetries Hydro
Climate change effect on water security
Climate
change Water security
Adaptable water policies
Adaptation policy framework
Polycentric
resources (Cascão, 2008). The forces behind such actions are often political. Hydropolitics is the term used for describing the politics behind attaining water resources. The managing of water sources becomes increasingly important for the future, because water is central for life and development. It will also become more complex with more and more communities and stakeholders laying claims on water sources (Baviskar, 2007).
It s not only the number of stakeholders making claims that makes it difficult to manage water resources, also the different kind of stakeholders with different motives make this case more challenging. This is often referred to as cultural politics or cultural imaginaries. In this case cultural politics implies that several aspects like language, norms and values, social structures, discourses, influence the way in which the political sphere is shaped (Spivak, 2012). Reflecting this to the Nile basin: in Egypt around 85% is Muslim while in Ethiopia only 35% is Muslim and slightly over 60% is Christian, divided mainly between orthodox and protestant. Even though these religious justifications can work their way up to national law, the water laws on higher scales will mainly be based on techno-‐scientific knowledge.
The cultural diversity of countries can results in, as described above, differences in norms and values which in their turn influence the way in which politics are formed. Because of these differences in politics it will be a very complex task to manage the shared water basin of the Nile. Some scientists therefore claim an overarching institution for the river basin instead of struggling between different institutions of different countries (De Stefano et cl., 2012).
2.2 Climate change effects on water security
Although the changes in population and economic development will have a significant higher impact on the water supply, climate change cannot be neglected in the problem of future water security (Vörösmarty et al., 2000). The most known consequence of climate change is the warming of the global climate. This warming together with other impacts will change the whole global water landscape. One of these other impacts is that climate events like rains, droughts and extreme temperatures will increase in intensity. This means arid areas becoming more dry and wet areas becoming more wet. This can result in major droughts or on the other hand extreme floods (Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004; Milly et al., 2002). Besides, climate patterns will become unreliable, which may be a major contribution to insufficient crop yields.
All these effects will result in an increase of 40% of people living in water scarce areas (<500m3 per capita per year) (Schewe et al., 2013). This increased water scarcity will force people to adapt. However, for some people it is easier to adapt than for others. Rich, developed countries, like the most in Europe and America, have access to what Vörösmarty et all. (2000) call ‘water technology benefits’ (figure 2). These are mainly water infrastructures that can be established in certain countries because of the availability of financial capital and knowledge. To reflect this on the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia has a higher threat than Egypt. The question is whether the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) is accounted for and if this will have a substantial impact on the human water security threat. Water security in this thesis is defined, according to the UN-‐Water agency (2013), as:
“The capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of and acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-‐being, and socio-‐economic development, for ensuring protection against water-‐borne pollution and water-‐related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability.” This definition is chosen because it encompasses multiple disciplines and focuses on both humans and natural ecosystems, if these can be seen separately. Therefore it is fitting in the political ecology paradigm of this thesis.
Figure 2: The influence of water technology benefits on the threat to human water security. Source: Vörösmarty et al., 2000
Besides the threat for humans, a decreasing water security also has major implications for biodiversity. Figure 3 shows the threat level along the whole Nile. This figure clearly shows how the amount of people near the river increases the threat for biodiversity. For example, in Cairo the threat level is almost the highest as possible. Moreover, the peaks in Sudan are caused by settlements on the river. On the other hand a decrease is present in the parts where there are national parks. This means that the management of rivers, or the exclusion of people, has a positive impact on the threat level.
Figure 3: The biodiversity threat along several rivers in the world. In the bottom right corner the Nile. Source: Vörösmarty et al., 2000
There is a strong linkage between water security and other sectors. Probably the most important linkage is with food security. Increasing water insecurity can be a cause of more severe famines, social and political unrest, environmental consequences such as the extinction of species, mass migration, degrading ecosystem services etc. Because of all these strong connections an efficient global framework should be implemented where water is managed in a sustainable manner for future generations and for this adaptation is key.
2.3 Adaptation policies
Most of the regimes that rule over water are incapable to cope with changing conditions. Therefore, a transition is needed towards regimes that are more adaptive to change. A regime is defined as a system that manages in this case water. A regime constitutes of different actors/institutions that form the rules of the system. For example, a regime with only a few actors defining the rules is seen as not inclusive. The adaptiveness of a system or an actor is defined as the capacity to adapt to certain changes (Lebel, Grothmann, Siebenhüner, 2010). These new regimes should consider the different characteristics of rivers (Pahl-‐Wostl, 2007). These different characteristics are the multiple disciplines involved with water: social, environmental, political etc. This will require changes in the paradigm of water management, from controlling practices towards learning processes. Several concepts can contribute to this change in the paradigm of water management. One of them is the Adaptation
policy framework.
In this framework actors on different levels, from international to local, engage in ways to cope with problems related to climate change. Burton (2005) describes four principles that form the base of adaptive policies:
1) ‘Adaptation to short term climate variability and extreme events serves as a starting point for reducing vulnerability to longer-‐term events.’
This implies that when certain countries already have experience in dealing with short term climate variability they can more efficiently work with longer term variability. For example when people in the Nile delta are used to floods, due to seasonal rains, they know for example how to divert the water or how to cope with the floods. Let’s say in ten years there will be an extreme flood because of increased intensity of precipitation, the people already have the knowledge to work with these kinds of events. This means that people should already invent ways to adapt to these kinds of events in order to gain knowledge.
2) ‘Adaptation occurs at different levels in society, including the local level.’
When we think of climate adaptation we often think big. Decisions are made on national level and therefore some people might feel excluded. However, for decennia people on local scale have adapted to changes in weather conditions. These people often have local knowledge that some experts or high ranked officials don’t have. Therefore, it should be important that local action is often very helpful in addressing climate change policies.
3) ‘Adaptation policy and measures should be assessed in a development context.’ When adaptation policies are implemented they should not work at the expense of development. These adaptive policies should work hand in hand with development policies.
4) ‘The adaptation strategy and the process by which it is implemented are equally
important.’
This principle points out that not only the measure itself is important but also the process behind it. Again, this means inclusion of stakeholders and transparency within the decision-‐making process.
In the past, environmental problems were addressed top down, with command and control management. This regime was dominated by bureaucratic systems where, knowledge of experts and large-‐scale technologies prevailed. Now that the environment is changing, this regime is not capable anymore to deal with the occurring problems. Therefore, to adapt to these new problems, a change in the paradigm is needed (Pahl-‐Wostl, 2009). Many scholars say this must come in the form of local, bottom-‐up initiatives (Jordan et al., 2015). A concept that contributes to more adaptiveness is polycentric governance. Polycentricity implies that there are multiple actors/institutions that interact on multiple scales, nested in systems that interact independently from each other. These systems change their behavior and rules according to experienced changes in the environment, they self-‐learn (Pahl-‐Wostl, 2009). Moreover, this structure of multiple bottom-‐up approaches, tend to self-‐organize in order to overcome perturbations (Ostrom, 2010).
The polycentric approach is in line with resilience thinking. If we look at resilience thinking defined in the context of an social ecological system (SES) three aspects play a key role: resilience, adaptability and transformability (Folke et al., 2010). Resilience in this context is described as: ‘’the ability of a system to react to perturbations and to return to a stable state’’. Berkes et al., (2008) define adaptability as: ‘’Adaptability captures the capacity of a SES to learn, combine experience and knowledge, adjust its responses to changing external drivers and internal processes, and continue developing within the current stability domain or basin of attraction’’. This amplifies the notion that these systems develop and change. Transformability than goes a step further in change and is described as the ability to cross thresholds, through development, into a new domain/regime.
Figure 4: Different stages of resilience with corresponding time scale. Source: Chelleri et al., 2015
To put this in context with an example from Ethiopia where heavy rainfall in the highlands causes flash floods and several cities are being destroyed. Resilience is then the ability of this system to return back to the normal state, in other words, new houses and infrastructures are built etc. Adaptability would be to learn from this event and built new houses on higher land or even built a dam to control the water. This would reduce the impact of future floods, while remaining in the same system. Transformability means a new way of thinking, changing the paradigm of water management. For example, from a centralized system controlling the water with technological projects like dams and dikes towards a system where decentralized aspects are integrated to battle inefficiency, inequity and corruption. This can for example result in floatable houses, or giving more space to the river for these floods to occur naturally.
These theories can be helpful in addressing some of the problems the countries, located in the Blue Nile basin, face in developing climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, it can help these countries to make inclusive policies in which local as well as global knowledge and interests are included. The links between hydro politics, climate change & water security and adaptation policies are inevitable. The water security of different stakeholders is for a large part determined by politics. Some governments choose to allocate the water to industries while other might allocate water to the poor. To overcome asymmetries like these where governments use basic life needs like water as a commodity, fair policies have to be developed. In order to achieve such policies, structured frameworks are needed. This often requires changes in the current political structures.
The next chapter will discuss the main-‐ and sub question of this paper. There will be an abridged justification on why these questions are chosen Moreover, the different groups of concepts described in this section will be applied to the various sub questions.
3. Questions
The previous chapter described the political ecology paradigm and several of the concepts it covers. The concepts are chosen according to the problem definition in introduction of this paper, as are the question proposed in this paper. In these questions the concepts will be applied to the context of the Blue Nile basin. As the introduction shows, the Blue Nile basin is an area with complex problems. This paper will focus on one of these problems, water. Water itself is also a rather complex subject, so this paper will zoom in on some of the problems related with water. As mentioned, water is a catalyzer for a lot of conflicts in the Blue Nile basin. With climate change increasing the stress on water in this area there is an urgent need for adaptive policies in this area. Hence, the main question of this paper is:
‘In what way can water policies, resistant to future climate change events, be established / solve conflicts in the Blue Nile Basin?
This main question will be divided in three sub questions. Every sub question will have a core of concepts, discussed in the previous sector that will form the base of each sub question. The first sub question will focus on the causes of conflicts. In this section the term hydro politics is used for several concepts, namely: hydrosocial-‐territories, hydro hegemony and hydro asymmetries. The conflicts in the area will be analyzed according to these concepts.
What are the influences of hydro politics in conflicts between different actors in the Nile Basin?
The second question will focus on the effects of climate change in the area and how this contributes to conflicts. The main concepts are: climate change & water security. In this sub question several subjects related to climate change will be analyzed for example, the climate variability that may have impacts on water security of the different actors.
In what way affects climate change the water security in the Nile Basin?
The third sub question will look at how the problems that are described in the second sub question can be solved through adaptation policies. The adaptation policy framework is the basis for these policies. The four core principles of this framework, see 2.3, all contribute to fair water policies that are looked for in the main question. These principles include, short term/long term adaptation to climate change, adaptation on different levels, policies and measures should be addressed in the context (in this case the Blue Nile basin), the process of policy making is equally important. These four principles address different aspects of the conflicts that are described, and are therefore suitable for answering this sub question.
How can the adaptation policies contribute to policies that can cope with future changes?
The next chapter will explain what methods are used to find answers to these proposed questions. It will elaborate on how certain methods of analysis are suitable for these questions and how these contribute to a legit form of data collection.
4. Methodology
This paper will fall under the category of qualitative research, first of all because the research design is a case study. The Blue Nile Basin is used as a case study to answer the main question of this paper. In order to examine the complex context of the Blue Nile basin, a case study is a suitable option (Bryman 2012). Often in case studies, questions that contain ‘how’ and ‘why’ are being used. This is because case studies go deeper into certain problems. Another aspect that is important in case studies is defining and explaining the context/ the relation between different variables. This is because the contextual conditions are important for the results. This stands in contrast with for example an experiment, where only one or a few variables are examined.
It is difficult to choose one specific kind of case study that is apparent in this paper because it contains aspects from several ones. For example, it could be considered explanatory because it tries to explain phenomena in data from both general and specific knowledge. On the other hand it can also be considered an exploratory case study because the outcomes of, in this case certain policies, are unclear (Baxter & Jack, 2008).
4.1 Data: collection & material
The research will be done primarily through analyzing policy documents and analyzing scientific literature on this topic. The literature that is used may vary from general theories explaining certain concepts to case specific research. However, the largest part of the articles on general theories and concepts will be used in the theoretical framework of this paper. Most of the case-‐specific literature is used in the analysis of this paper. In order to find the different motives of the involved stakeholders, different sources will be used. For example, newspapers or governmental statements on the building of a dam in Ethiopia will probably be positive. On the other hand, the newspapers and government officials in Egypt will condemn this project. Therefore, data will be collected from different sources, to get more insight in the differences in the range of ideas.
The focus of this paper is based on the political ecology paradigm described in the conceptual framework. Several concepts are chosen on which this thesis will base the results. Concepts that fall outside this paradigm, but are important for the thesis are addressed in the discussion.
4.2 Stakeholder analysis
The first subquestion addresses conflicts between different actors. Although the main focus will be on basin level, there are local conflicts that are important too, which therefore also will be discussed. A stakeholder analysis will point out the most important stakeholders involved in water issues in the Blue Nile basin. This method identifies relationships between the different stakeholders and interests of the stakeholders in certain issues or subjects. According to Ramirez (1999), this method can be used for several reasons. First of all, it can be helpful in analyzing how the relations are now between the stakeholders by ‘’discovering the different patterns of interactions’’. Secondly, it is useful to ‘’improve interventions analytically’’, this means deconstructing a complex problem into it’s different related aspects. Thirdly, it can be used as a ‘’management tool in policy making’’; this will be perfect for creating new policies that are adaptable to climate change events. Fourthly, it can also be implemented as a ‘’tool to predict conflict’’, again applicable for the Nile region with all the occurring conflicts over water.
Moreover, it discusses the characteristics of several groups, ranging from individuals to institutions and governments (Brugha & Varvasovszky, 2000). The focus of this paper will be on international level. Accordingly, the main actors will be the governments of the involved countries. However, there will also be a part in the paper that focuses on local/regional conflicts within the countries themselves. This is because a lot on conflicts have impacts on different scales. Besides the scale, there are several aspects per stakeholder, which differentiate them from each other. For example, the interest and power of a certain stakeholder can have a substantial influence on the position it takes in a conflict. This is strongly related with the importance and influence of a stakeholder. To put this in perspective, a small scale farmer, which is affected by for example climate change, has a small chance of getting compensation. On the other hand, if a big industrial company, which is important for the economy of a country, gets affected, governments will more likely help this company. This is for example the case in Ethiopia (Davidsion, 2017). Furthermore, stakeholders can also wear different hats. On the one hand they can make statements that they will battle water shortages and will
provide the poor with sanitation facilities. But, maybe a few weeks later they’re building new waterways for industrial companies because this is economically more profitable.
4.3 Policy Analysis
A part of the goal of this paper is to analyze how the different actors look at the problem of water differently. A helpful method to analyze this is a so-‐called policy analysis. In this form of analysis it is important to make a division between a descriptive and prescriptive analysis. In order to give an answer to the first two sub questions, a descriptive analysis is used. Herein, existing policies are analyzed (Bryman, 2012).
The third sub question will be answered through a prescriptive analysis wherein new policies will be addressed. The focus in this analysis is on the formulation of policies, in this case for future climate change events. In some cases the policy analysis might overlap partially with a discourse analysis. However, this will not have detrimental effects for the outcomes of the analysis, but will probably give a somewhat broader perspective on the state of affairs. A discourse analysis may be contributing to finding different motives behind the reasoning of the different actors and will give insight in the way these actors have different ways of thinking/argumentation. The concept of cultural imaginaries will be useful to explain some of the differences (Boelens et al., 2016).
