"Relatieve orale biobeschikbaarheid van contaminanten in bodem": Overzicht van werkzaamheden 1996-2001 met koppeling aan beleidsvragen | RIVM

5,90UDSSRUW 5HODWLHYHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQ FRQWDPLQDQWHQLQERGHP :HUN]DDPKHGHQPHWNRSSHOLQJDDQ EHOHLGVYUDJHQ &-05RPSHOEHUJHQ//GH=ZDUW 'LWRQGHU]RHNZHUGYHUULFKWLQRSGUDFKWHQWHQODVWHYDQKHW0LQLVWHULHYDQ9520'LUHFWLH %RGHP:DWHUHQ/DQGHOLMNJHELHG%:/LQKHWNDGHUYDQSURMHFW5LVLFR¶VLQUHODWLH WRWERGHPNZDOLWHLW 5,903RVWEXV%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHIRRQID[

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

$EVWUDFW

,QFXUUHQWULVNDVVHVVPHQWRIVRLOFRQWDPLQDQWVRUDOELRDYDLODELOLW\RIFRQWDPLQDQWVIURPVRLO LQKXPDQV)VRLOLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHHTXDOWRWKHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIFRQWDPLQDQWVIURPWKH

PDWUL[XVHGLQWKHWR[LFRORJLFDOVWXGLHV)PDWUL[WR[VWXG\XQGHUO\LQJWKH0D[LPDO3HUPLVVLEOH

5LVNOHYHO7KHUHDUHLQGLFDWLRQVWKDWWKLVFRQVLGHUDWLRQLVQRWYDOLG5HVHDUFKRQUHODWLYH ELRDYDLODELOLW\IDFWRUV )VRLO)PDWUL[WR[VWXG\RIVRLOFRQWDPLQDQWVLVQHHGHGIRUPRUHLQVLJKW

LQWRUHODWLYHELRDYDLOLDELOLW\IDFWRUVDQGWRGHFLGHZKHWKHUULVNDVVHVVPHQWFDQEHLPSURYHG E\H[SHULPHQWDOGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHVHIDFWRUV7KHVWLOORQJRLQJUHVHDUFKRQUHODWLYH ELRDYDLODELOLW\IDFWRUVRIVRLOFRQWDPLQDQWVDWWKH/DERUDWRU\RI([SRVXUH$VVHVVPHQWDQG (QYLURQPHQWDO(SLGHPLRORJ\RIWKH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHIRU3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW LQWKHSHULRGKDVEHHQVXPPDULVHGLQWKHFXUUHQWUHSRUW7RGDWHDQLQYLWUR GLJHVWLRQPRGHODQGDSUHOLPLQDU\PDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGDQGWHVWHGWR H[SORUHWKHUHODWLYHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIFRQWDPLQDQWVLQVRLO,WFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWERWK PRGHOVDUHSURPLVLQJWRROVWRVWXG\UHODWLYHELRDYDLODELOLW\IDFWRUV7KHFXUUHQWUHSRUWZLOOEH XVHGWRGHFLGHKRZUHVHDUFKKDVWREHFRQWLQXHG

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

,QKRXG

6$0(19$77,1*  ,1/(,',1*   ,1/(,',1*  2UDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG   'HILQLWLHYDQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG   (IIHFWYDQPDWUL[RSRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG   5LVLFRVFKDWWLQJERGHP  075KXPDDQ  %HUHNHQLQJ65&KXPDDQLQ&62,/  5HODWLHYH)LQ&62,/   'RHOVWHOOLQJGHHOSURMHFW  .233(/,1*$$1%(/(,'695$*(1   ,QOHLGLQJ  /RFDWLHVSHFLILHNXUJHQWLHWRWERGHPVDQHULQJYUDDJ   9HUEHWHULQJLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQYUDDJ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

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW /,7(5$7885  %,-/$*(352-(&73/$1%$5*( $EVWUDFW  *(1(5$/,1752'8&7,21  67$7864825(6($5&+  2%-(&7,9(6  027,9$7,21  25*$1,=$7,21$1'7,0(7$%/(  25*$1,=$7,21 7,0(7$%/(  &2676  '(/,9(5$%/(6  %,-/$*(9(5=(1'/,-67

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

6DPHQYDWWLQJ

(pQYDQGHSDUDPHWHUVGLHYRRUGHKXLGLJHKXPDQHULVLFRVFKDWWLQJYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQ ERGHPYDQEHODQJLVLVGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUUHODWLHYH)'HUHODWLHYH)LV HHQUDWLRYDQWZHHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUHQ)JURQGJHGHILQLHHUGDOVGHRUDOH

ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWJURQGHQ)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHWEY075JHGHILQLHHUGDOV

GHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWGHPDWUL[GLHLQGHWR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHVWHU RQGHUERXZLQJYDQKHWKXPDDQWR[LFRORJLVFKPD[LPDDOWRHODDWEDDUULVLFRZRUGWJHEUXLNW 7RWQXWRHZRUGWGHUHODWLHYH)YRRUDOOHFRQWDPLQDQWHQPXYORRGRSJHVWHOG'LW EHWHNHQWGDW)JURQGJHOLMNZRUGWYHURQGHUVWHOGDDQ)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHWEY075(U]LMQDDQZLM]LQJHQ

GDWGLWODQJQLHWDOWLMGKHWJHYDOKRHIWWH]LMQ 2PPHHULQ]LFKWWHNULMJHQLQUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUHQHQRPWHEHVOLVVHQRIGH ULVLFRVFKDWWLQJYHUEHWHUGNDQZRUGHQGRRUKHWH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDOHQYDQGH]HIDFWRUHQLV RQGHU]RHNQDDUGH]HUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUHQQRRG]DNHOLMN ,QGLWUDSSRUWZRUGWHHQRYHU]LFKWJHJHYHQYDQKHWRQGHU]RHNQDDUUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDU KHLGVIDFWRUHQYDQEHOHLGVUHOHYDQWHFRQWDPLQDQWHQXLWERGHP]RDOVRQGHU]RFKWLQKHW GHHOSURMHFW02%³5HODWLHYHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQ ERGHP´SHULRGH1DDVWGHPHWKRGLHNRQWZLNNHOLQJYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGH UHODWLHYH)NRPWLQGLWUDSSRUWRRNGHEHOHLGVPDWLJHNDQWDDQGHRUGH(UZRUGWQDJHJDDQHQ XLWHHQJH]HWELMZHONHIDFHWWHQYDQGHULVLFRVFKDWWLQJYRRUERGHPKHWH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDOHQ YDQUHODWLHYH)YDQQXWNDQ]LMQ 2UDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGNDQYHUGHHOGZRUGHQLQHHQDDQWDOGHHOSURFHVVHQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ LQWHVWLQDOHDEVRUSWLHHQPHWDEROLVPH,QKHWUDSSRUWZRUGWXLWHHQJH]HWZHONHGHHOSURFHVVHQ YDQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDDOGPRHWHQZRUGHQRPGHUHODWLHYH)WH NXQQHQEHSDOHQ'LWEOLMNWDIKDQNHOLMNWH]LMQYDQGHPDWHYDQEHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQJHJHYHQV RYHUGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHGHHOSURFHVVHQ'DWDRYHUKHWHHUVWHGHHOSURFHVYDQRUDOH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\)E]LMQPHHVWDOQLHWYRRUKDQGHQHQ]XOOHQ GHUKDOYHH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDDOGPRHWHQZRUGHQ%LRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZRUGWJHGHILQLHHUGDOVGH IUDFWLHYDQHHQGRVLVGLHWLMGHQVKHWYHUWHULQJVSURFHVLQKHWPDDJGDUPNDQDDOYULMNRPWXLWGH PDWUL[HQEHVFKLNEDDULVYRRUDEVRUSWLHLQGHGXQQHGDUP'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\LVGXV DIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHPDWUL[ZDDUGHFRQWDPLQDQW]LFKLQEHYLQGWDOVKLMLQJHVOLNWZRUGW2PGH UHODWLHYH)WHNXQQHQEHSDOHQPRHWGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWGHPDWUL[ JURQG)EJURQGLQHONJHYDOEHSDDOGZRUGHQ,QVRPPLJHJHYDOOHQPRHWWHYHQVGH

ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQGHFRQWDPLQDQWXLWGHPDWUL[GLHLQGHWR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHVWHU RQGHUERXZLQJYDQKHWKXPDDQWR[LFRORJLVFKPD[LPDDOWRHODDWEDDUULVLFRJHEUXLNWLV )EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHSDDOGZRUGHQ

'HPHWKRGLHNRQWZLNNHOLQJELQQHQGHHOSURMHFW02%³5HODWLHYHRUDOH

ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQERGHP´ZDVWRWQXWRHYRRUQDPHOLMNJHULFKWRSKHW H[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDOHQYDQ)EJURQGPHWHHQLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOLHHHQ³UHDJHHUEXL]HQ

PRGHO´GDWGHYHUWHULQJLQKHWPDDJGDUPNDQDDOVLPXOHHUW7HYHQVLVRQGHU]RFKWRI)EJURQGRRN

PHWEHKXOSYDQHHQPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRUVSHOGNDQZRUGHQ]LHKRRIGVWXNHQ ,QKHWUDSSRUWNRPHQGHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQGHKDDOEDDUKHLGYDQ]RZHOKHWLQYLWUR

GLJHVWLHPRGHODOVKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHODDQGHRUGH8LWGHH[SHULPHQWHQGLHUHHGV]LMQ XLWJHYRHUGEOLMNWGDWKHWPRJHOLMNLVRPGH)EJURQGWHEHSDOHQPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWLQYLWUR

GLJHVWLHPRGHO0RPHQWHHONDQGH)EJURQGYRRUORRGDUVHHQFDGPLXPEHQ]RDS\UHHQHQ

EHQ]RDDQWKUDFHHQEHSDDOGZRUGHQ+HWPRHWHFKWHUQRJEOLMNHQRIKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO GHLQYLYRVLWXDWLHJRHGVLPXOHHUW

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW (ULVHHQHHUVWHDDQ]HWJHPDDNWYRRUHHQPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRUORRGHQEHQ]RDS\UHHQ 'HKDDOEDDUKHLGYDQKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOLVQRJRQGXLGHOLMN+LHUYRRU]LMQDDQYXOOHQGH H[SHULPHQWHQQRGLJ 'RRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYH)YDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWNDQQDJHJDDQZRUGHQRIKHW PRJHOLMNLVRPDQWZRRUGWHJHYHQRSRQGHUVWDDQGHYUDJHQGLHEHOHLGVPDWLJYDQEHODQJ]LMQ  ,VVDQHULQJRSHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHQRRG]DNHOLMNRSJURQGYDQGHKXPDQHEORRWVWHOOLQJ PDZLVHUHHQDFWXHHOULVLFROLJWWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJERYHQ075KXPDDQ"  .XQQHQLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ65&KXPDDQDDQJHSDVWZRUGHQGRRUKHWYHUYDQJHQYDQ

UHODWLHYH) GZ])JURQG )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHGRRUHHQFRQWDPLQDQWVSHFLILHNHZDDUGHYRRU

UHODWLHYH)"=RMDZHONHZDDUGHYRRUUHODWLHYH)NDQGDQJHEUXLNWZRUGHQ" +HWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOLMNW]HHUEUXLNEDDUELMGHEHDQWZRRUGLQJYDQYUDDJ 8LWGHH[SHULPHQWHQGLH]LMQXLWJHYRHUGEOLMNWGDW)EJURQGYDQHHQJHFRQWDPLQHHUG

ERGHPPRQVWHUEHSDDOGNDQZRUGHQPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO'H)EPDWUL[ WR[VWXGLHLVWRWRSKHGHQQRJQLHWEHSDDOGPDDUNDQ]HHUZDDUVFKLMQOLMNRRNEHSDDOGZRUGHQLQ KHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO+LHUELMPRHWQRJEHNHNHQZRUGHQRIKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO DDQSDVVLQJEHKRHIWYRRUKHWWHVWHQYDQGH]HPDWUL[ 'HEUXLNEDDUKHLGYDQKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRUGHEHDQWZRRUGLQJYDQYUDDJLVQRJ RQGXLGHOLMN2SGLWPRPHQWLVKHWQRJQLHWPRJHOLMNRPYRRUHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHPEYKHW PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOWHYRRUVSHOOHQZDWGHUHODWLHYH)LVYRRUHHQEHSDDOGHFRQWDPLQDQW'H KDDOEDDUKHLGYDQ]R¶QYRRUVSHOOHQGPRGHO]DOQDQLHXZXLWWHYRHUHQH[SHULPHQWHQPRHWHQ ZRUGHQYDVWJHVWHOG 'HWRHSDVVLQJYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOLMNWRSEDVLVYDQGHKXLGLJHUHVXOWDWHQYDQQXWWH ]LMQYRRUEHDQWZRRUGLQJYDQGHWZHHGHYUDDJ9RRUHHQFRQWDPLQDQWDOVORRGNDQ JHFRQFOXGHHUGZRUGHQGDWGHYHUNUHJHQZDDUGHQYRRUGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGVWHUN YHUVFKLOOHQSHU1HGHUODQGVERGHPW\SH+LHUGRRUZRUGWKHWEHSDOHQYDQHHQJHQHULHNH ZDDUGHYRRUGHUHODWLHYH)DQGHUVGDQEHPRHLOLMNW'LWZRUGWRQGHUVFKUHYHQGRRUGH UHVXOWDWHQYDQKHWYRRUORSLJHPDWKHPDWLVFKHPRGHO +HWUDSSRUWHLQGLJWPHWHHQDDQWDOVXJJHVWLHVYRRUYHUYROJRQGHU]RHNKRRIGVWXN

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

,QOHLGLQJ

 ,QOHLGLQJ

'H]HUDSSRUWDJHLVRSJHVWHOGRPHHQRYHU]LFKWWHNULMJHQYDQGHRS]HWHQDOOH ZHUN]DDPKHGHQSHULRGHELQQHQKHWGHHOSURMHFW02%³5HODWLHYH RUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQERGHP´HQRPYDQGDDUXLWQDDUGHWRHNRPVW WHNLMNHQ'HHOSURMHFW02%PDDNWRQGHUGHHOXLWYDQSURMHFW05LVLFRV LQUHODWLHWRWERGHPNZDOLWHLW ,QKRRIGVWXNZRUGWHHUVWGHFRQWH[WRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGHQULVLFRVFKDWWLQJYDQ FRQWDPLQDQWHQLQJURQGHQYHUYROJHQVGHGRHOVWHOOLQJYDQKHWGHHOSURMHFWEHVSURNHQKHW EHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUUHODWLHYH)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





2UDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG

 'HILQLWLHYDQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG

'HWHUPELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGNHQWYHOHLQWHUSUHWDWLHVPHHVWDODIKDQNHOLMNYDQKHWYDNJHELHG ZDDULQRQGHU]RHNZRUGWJHGDDQ'LWSURMHFWEHWUHIWRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQ FRQWDPLQDQWHQXLWJURQG8LWILJXXUNDQZRUGHQDIJHOHLGGDWHUGULHGHHOSURFHVVHQ]LMQWH RQGHUVFKHLGHQGLHWHVDPHQGHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQVWRIEHSDOHQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ LQWHVWLQDOHDEVRUSWLHHQPHWDEROLVPH) )E[)D[)K 'HWHUPRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGJHHIWDDQZHONGHHOYDQGHH[WHUQHGRVLVXLWHLQGHOLMN WRWLQWHUQHEORRWVWHOOLQJOHLGW 'HH[WHUQHGRVLVLVGHKRHYHHOKHLGFRQWDPLQDQWVWRIGLHLHPDQGLQVOLNWLQDGHPWHWF,QGLHQ HHQVWRIZRUGWLQJHVOLNWZRUGWGHVWRISDVDOV³LQWHUQ´EHVFKRXZGQDGDWGHVWRIYDQXLWKHW PDDJGDUPNDQDDOGRRUGHGDUPZDQGLVJHDEVRUEHHUGGRRUGHOHYHULVJHWUDQVSRUWHHUGHQLQGH V\VWHPLVFKHFLUFXODWLHEORHGEDDQLVWHUHFKWJHNRPHQ2QGHULQWHUQHEORRWVWHOOLQJZRUGWGDQ RRNYHUVWDDQGHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQGHKRHYHHOKHLGVWRIFRQWDPLQDQWLQGHV\VWHPLVFKH FLUFXODWLHHQGXVRRNLQGHGRHOZLWRUJDQHQ'RRUGHH[WHUQHGRVLVWHYHUPHQLJYXOGLJHQPHW GHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGZRUGWGHLQWHUQHGRVLVYHUNUHJHQGLHWRWLQWHUQHEORRWVWHOOLQJ OHLGW LQWHUQHGRVLV RUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG[H[WHUQHGRVLV ZDDUELMGHLQWHUQHGRVLVZRUGWXLWJHGUXNWLQPJNJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKW

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW  VORNGDUP P DDJ GXQQ HGDUP GXQQHGDUP SR RUWDGHU OHYHU V\VWHP LVFKH FLUFXODWLH P R QG

G HHOS URFHVVHQ LQ RUDOHE LRE HVFKLN E DDUK HLG

LQJ HVWLHY DQFR QWDP LQDQW P DWUL[ EOR RWVWHOOLQJ DDQ H[ WHUQHG RVLV FRQWDP LQDQWLQP DWUL[

)% IUDFWLHYDQH[WHUQHG RVLVGLHY ULMNRP W

XLWP DWUL[HQEHVFKLNEDDULVYRR UDE VRUSWLH LQG XQQHGDUP E LRDFFHVVLELOLW\ 

)$ IUDFWLHYDQ)%GLHGRRUGXQ QHGDUP 

J HDEVR UEHHUGZ RUGWHQLQ KHWEORHG  SRRUWDG HUNRP WLQWHVWLQDOHDEVRUSWLH )+ IUDFWLHYDQ)$GLHGHOHYHUSDVVHHUW

]RQGHUJ HP HWDE ROLVHHUGWHZ RUGHQ  2 5 $ / ( % ,2 % ( 6 & + ,. % $ $ 5 + ( ,'  )  IUDFWLHYDQ H[ WHUQHG RVLVGLH GHV\ VWHP LVFKHFLUFXODWLHEHUHLN W

)  )%[)$[)+ LQ WHUQ HEORRWVWHOOLQ J

H[WHUQ HE ORRWVWHOOLQJ

)LJXXU'HHOSURFHVVHQLQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG

 (IIHFWYDQPDWUL[RSRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG

'HPDWUL[ZDDULQGHFRQWDPLQDQWZRUGWLQJHQRPHQELMYYRHGLQJGULQNZDWHUJURQGHWF VSHHOWHHQEHODQJULMNHUROELMGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\)E1DDUPDWHGHPDWUL[PHHUFRQWDPLQDQW GHHOWMHVDDQ]LFKELQGW]XOOHQHULQKHWPDDJGDUPNDQDDOPLQGHUFRQWDPLQDQWGHHOWMHVLQ RSJHORVWHYRUPDDQZH]LJ]LMQGLHYHUYROJHQVYRRURSQDPHLQGHGDUPLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLH LQDDQPHUNLQJNRPHQ8LWGHOLWHUDWXXULVEHNHQGGDWGHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQ]HOIGH FRQWDPLQDQWVWHUNNDQYHUVFKLOOHQELMRUDOHWRHGLHQLQJLQYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDWULFHV/D9HOOHHW DO&DVWHHOHWDO'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWLVPD[LPDDOLQGLHQ WRHJHGLHQGDOVHHQRSORVVLQJ)E GHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\LVYHHODOODJHUELMWRHGLHQLQJYLD YRHGLQJRIJURQG)E %LMEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQH[WHUQHGRVLVYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWGLHQWPHQUHNHQLQJWH KRXGHQPHWKHWHIIHFWYDQGHPDWUL[RSGHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGHQGXVRSGH LQWHUQHGRVLVYDQGHFRQWDPLQDQW'H]HLQWHUQHGRVLVNDQELMGH]HOIGHH[WHUQHGRVLV YHUVFKLOOHQG]LMQYRRUYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDWULFHVZDDULQGHFRQWDPLQDQW]LFKEHYLQGW

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 5LVLFRVFKDWWLQJERGHP

6LQGVZRUGWKHWKXPDQHEORRWVWHOOLQJVPRGHO&62,/LQ1HGHUODQGJHEUXLNWYRRUKHW DIOHLGHQYDQLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ'HHHUVWHWUDQFKHLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ]LMQLQLQ ZHUNLQJJHWUHGHQ5HFHQW]LMQGH]HLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQJHsYDOXHHUGHQ]LMQ65&KXPDDQ KXPDQWR[LFRORJLFDOVHULRXVULVNFRQFHQWUDWLRQDIJHOHLGYRRUDOOHVWRIIHQYDQGH]HHHUVWH WUDQFKHLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ/LM]HQHWDO

 075

KXPDDQ +HW075KXPDDQKXPDDQWR[LFRORJLVFKPD[LPDDOWRHODDWEDDUULVLFRXLWJHGUXNWLQ µJNJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKWGDJYRUPWVDPHQPHWGHEORRWVWHOOLQJVPRGHOOHULQJ&62,/GHEDVLV

YRRUGH65&KXPDDQYRRUJHGHWDLOOHHUGHLQIR]LH/LM]HQHWDO+HW075KXPDDQZRUGW

JHGHILQLHHUGDOVGHKRHYHHOKHLGYDQHHQVWRIZDDUDDQHHQLQGLYLGXGDJHOLMNVJHGXUHQGH ]LMQKDDUOHYHQNDQZRUGHQEORRWJHVWHOG]RQGHUVLJQLILFDQWHJH]RQGKHLGVULVLFR¶V%DDUVHWDO (U]LMQ075ZDDUGHQYRRURUDOHHQLQKDODWRLUHEORRWVWHOOLQJ +HW075KXPDDQZRUGWLQKHWDOJHPHHQDOVYROJWDIJHOHLGYRRUHHQQLHWJHQRWR[LVFKH FRQWDPLQDQW • 12$(/QRREVHUYHGDGYHUVHHIIHFWOHYHO KRRJVWHH[WHUQHGRVLVZDDUELMJHHQVWRI JHUHODWHHUGQDGHOLJHIIHFWLVZDDUJHQRPHQ'H]H12$(/ZRUGWPHHVWDOEHSDDOGLQHHQ WR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHPHWSURHIGLHUHQZDDUELMGHFRQWDPLQDQWDDQKHWYRHUZRUGWWRHJHYRHJG RIGPYHHQRSORVVLQJVXVSHQVLHLQGHPDDJZRUGWWRHJHGLHQG'HRUDOH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGZRUGWLQGH]HVWXGLHVPHHVWDOQLHWEHSDDOG • 9) 9HLOLJKHLGVIDFWRURDYRRULQWHUVSHFLHVYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQSURHIGLHUHQPHQVHQ YRRULQWUDVSHFLHVYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQPHQVHQRQGHUOLQJ

 %HUHNHQLQJ65&

KXPDDQ

LQ&62,/

9RRUKHWEHUHNHQHQYDQGHGDJHOLMNVHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWYLDLQJHVWLHYDQ JURQGZRUGWJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQRQGHUVWDDQGHIRUPXOHXLW&62,/9DQGHQ%HUJ /LM]HQHWDO ZDDUELM ', GDJHOLMNVHRSQDPHYLDLQJHVWLHYDQJURQG >PJFRQWDPLQDQWNJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKWG@ $,' GDJHOLMNVHLQQDPHKRHYHHOKHLGJURQG >NJJURQGGVG_@ YROZDVVHQH   NLQG  

&V JHKDOWHLQGHERGHP >PJFRQWDPLQDQWNJERGHP@  5HODWLHYH) UHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRURSJHVWHOG

PXYORRG]LH 075KXPDDQ 12$(/9)[9)[«

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW : OLFKDDPVJHZLFKW  >NJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKW@  YROZDVVHQH  NLQG  2PGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJ OHYHQVODQJJHPLGGHOGHGDJHOLMNVHEORRWVWHOOLQJPJ FRQWDPLQDQWNJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKW_G_{WHEHUHNHQHQZRUGWGHEORRWVWHOOLQJYLDGH} YHUVFKLOOHQGHEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHVLQJHVWLHYDQJURQGLQJHVWLHYDQJHZDVLQKDODWLHHQ HYHQWXHHOGHUPDDORSJHWHOG+HWJHKDOWHYDQGHFRQWDPLQDQWLQGHERGHPZDDUELMGHWRWDOH EORRWVWHOOLQJJHOLMNLVDDQKHW075KXPDDQLVGDQGH65&KXPDDQ'H]HULVLFRJUHQVZRUGW

EHUHNHQGPHWKHW&62,/PRGHO

 5HODWLHYH)LQ&62,/

'HUHODWLHYH)LVHHQUDWLRYDQWZHHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUHQ)JURQGHQ)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHWEY 075)JURQGLVJHGHILQLHHUGDOVGHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWJURQG )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHWEY075LVJHGHILQLHHUGDOVGHRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLW GHPDWUL[GLHLQGHWR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHVWHURQGHUERXZLQJYDQKHW075KXPDDQLVJHEUXLNW/LM]HQ HWDO 'HUHODWLHYH)ZRUGWWRWQXWRHYRRUDOOHVWRIIHQPXYORRGRSJHVWHOG/LM]HQHWDO 'LWEHWHNHQWGDWGHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWJURQGJHOLMNZRUGW YHURQGHUVWHOGDDQGHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQGH]HOIGHFRQWDPLQDQWXLWGHPDWUL[GLHLQGH WR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHVWHURQGHUERXZLQJYDQKHW075KXPDDQLVJHEUXLNW

 'RHOVWHOOLQJGHHOSURMHFW

,QGLWGHHOSURMHFWLVQDGHURQGHU]RHNQDDUGHUHODWLHYH)JHGDDQ]RGDWHHQPHHUUHDOLVWLVFKH LQVFKDWWLQJYDQUHODWLHYH)HQGXVRRNYDQKHWKXPDQHULVLFRYDQERGHPFRQWDPLQDWLHHQYDQ 65&KXPDDQNDQZRUGHQJHPDDNW]LHKRRIGVWXN 'HODDJVWHZDDUGHYRRUGHUHODWLHYH)LVWHYHUZDFKWHQYRRUGLHVWRIIHQZDDUELMKHW075KXPDDQ LVDIJHOHLGYDQHHQWR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHZDDUELMGHFRQWDPLQDQWGPYHHQRSORVVLQJLV

WRHJHGLHQGELMHHQRSORVVLQJLVGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\'DDUGRRU]DO)JURQG)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

GXVUHODWLHYH)+HWNDQHFKWHURRNYRRUNRPHQGDWGHUHODWLHYH)JURWHULVGDQ'LWLV WHYHUZDFKWHQYRRUVWRIIHQZDDUELMKHW075KXPDDQLVDIJHOHLGYDQHHQWR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHZDDUELM

GHFRQWDPLQDQWGPYYRHGLQJLVWRHJHGLHQGHQ)JURQG!)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

'HGRHOVWHOOLQJYDQGLWGHHOSURMHFWLVKHWEHSDOHQYDQUHODWLHYH

ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUHQUHODWLHYH) )JURQG)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHYRRUHHQDDQWDO

EHOHLGVUHOHYDQWHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ UHODWLHYH) )JURQG)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHWEY075

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 .RSSHOLQJDDQEHOHLGVYUDJHQ

 ,QOHLGLQJ

'HRQGHUOLJJHQGHEHOHLGVYUDDJYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYH)LVGHYUDDJRIGHKXPDQH ULVLFRVFKDWWLQJYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQERGHPYHUEHWHUGNDQZRUGHQGRRUKHWQDXZNHXULJ EHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYH)HQYHUYROJHQVGH]HZDDUGHWRHWHSDVVHQELMGHULVLFRVFKDWWLQJ(U ]LMQDDQZLM]LQJHQGDWHHQUHODWLHYH)YDQGLHWRWQXWRHJHEUXLNWZRUGWQLHWDOWLMGRSKRHIW WHJDDQ+LHUGRRURQWVWDDWGHEHKRHIWHRPGHUHODWLHYH)WHRQGHUERXZHQ +HWEHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYH)YDQHHQDDQWDOEHOHLGVUHOHYDQWHFRQWDPLQDQWHQNDQ]RZHO YRRUHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHDOVYRRU³GH1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´ZRUGHQXLWJHYRHUG+LHUGRRU NXQQHQHUWZHHYUDJHQEHDQWZRRUGZRUGHQ  ,VVDQHULQJRSHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHQRRG]DNHOLMNRSJURQGYDQGHKXPDQHEORRWVWHOOLQJ LVHUHHQDFWXHHOULVLFROLJWWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJERYHQ075KXPDDQ""  .XQQHQLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ65&KXPDDQDDQJHSDVWZRUGHQGRRUKHWYHUYDQJHQYDQ

UHODWLHYH) GZ])JURQG )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHGRRUHHQFRQWDPLQDQWVSHFLILHNHZDDUGHYRRU

UHODWLHYH)",QGLHQMDZHONHZDDUGHYRRUUHODWLHYH)NDQGDQJHEUXLNWZRUGHQ" 'HDDQSDNRPWRWKHWEHDQWZRRUGHQYDQGH]HWZHHLQKRXGHOLMNHYUDJHQWHNRPHQZRUGW XLWJHZHUNWLQRQGHUVWDDQGHSDUDJUDIHQ

 /RFDWLHVSHFLILHNXUJHQWLHWRWERGHPVDQHULQJYUDDJ

%LMHHQERGHPVDQHULQJZRUGWHHUVWQDJHJDDQRIHUVSUDNHLVYDQHHQSRWHQWLHHOULVLFR+LHUELM ZRUGWSHUFRQWDPLQDQWQDJHJDDQRIGHLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHRSGLHORFDWLHZRUGWRYHUVFKUHGHQ ,QGLHQGHLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHZRUGWRYHUVFKUHGHQLVHUVSUDNHYDQHHQSRWHQWLHHOULVLFR 9HUYROJHQVZRUGWWHUEHSDOLQJYDQGHXUJHQWLHQDJHJDDQRIHUWHYHQVVSUDNHLVYDQHHQDFWXHHO KXPDDQULVLFRHHQHFRORJLVFKULVLFRHQHHQYHUVSUHLGLQJVULVLFR+LHUELMZRUGWYRRUKXPDQH ULVLFR¶VQDJHJDDQZHONHEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHVRSGHEHWUHIIHQGHORFDWLHYDQWRHSDVVLQJ]LMQHQ RIGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJ OHYHQVODQJJHPLGGHOGHGDJHOLMNVHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQGHEHWUHIIHQGH FRQWDPLQDQWRSGLHVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHKRJHULVGDQKHW075KXPDDQ'LWNDQZRUGHQEHUHNHQG PEYKHWIRUPXODULXPEHVFKUHYHQLQKHWVRIWZDUHSURJUDPPD6DQHULQJV8UJHQWLH 6\VWHPDWLHN686YHUVLHHQ³8UJHQWLHYDQERGHPVDQHULQJ'HKDQGOHLGLQJ´ .RROHQEUDQGHU (UEHVWDDWGHPRJHOLMNKHLGRPDDQYXOOHQGRQGHU]RHNWHYHUULFKWHQQDDUGHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV GLHGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJEHwQYORHGHQ]RDOVELMYRRUEHHOGGHUHODWLHYH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUYRRULQJHVWLHYDQJURQGRIGHELRFRQFHQWUDWLHIDFWRUYRRU JHZDVVHQRPQDWHJDDQRIGH]HYRRUGLHVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHDQGHUV]LMQGDQJHQHULHN YHURQGHUVWHOGHZDDUGHQ'HGDWDYRRUGH]HSDUDPHWHUVNXQQHQYHUYROJHQVZRUGHQLQJHYRHUG LQGHEHWUHIIHQGHIRUPXOHVWHUEHUHNHQLQJYDQGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJ,QGLHQEOLMNWGDWGH]H WRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJODJHULVGDQKHW075KXPDDQLVHUJHHQVSUDNHYDQHHQDFWXHHOULVLFR%LQQHQ GLWSURMHFWZRUGWQDGHURQGHU]RHNYHUULFKWQDDUGHLQSXWSDUDPHWHU³UHODWLHYH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUYRRULQJHVWLHYDQJURQG´ 'RRUEHSDOLQJYDQGHUHODWLHYH)YDQHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHNDQEOLMNHQGDWGHJHQHULHNH ZDDUGH YHUYDQJHQNDQZRUGHQGRRUHHQZDDUGH'LWNDQHUWRHOHLGHQGDWPHWQDPH

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW YRRUVWRIIHQZDDUELMJURQGLQJHVWLHGHEHODQJLMNVWHEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHLVWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJ ODJHUZRUGWGDQGH075'HJURRWWHYDQKHWHIIHFWYDQGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRU YRRUJURQGRSGHEORRWVWHOOLQJYHUVFKLOWSHUFRQWDPLQDQWLVRDDIKDQNHOLMNYDQKHWEHODQJ YDQGHEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHJURQGLQJHVWLH7HULOOXVWUDWLHZRUGWKHWHIIHFWYDQGHJURRWWHYDQ GHUHODWLHYH)YRRUJURQGRSGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQZLOOHNHXULJHFRQWDPLQDQWLQGLW JHYDOEHQ]RDS\UHHQJHWRRQGLQILJXXU%ORRWVWHOOLQJDDQEHQ]RDS\UHHQZRUGWYRRU YHURRU]DDNWGRRULQJHVWLHYDQJURQG )LJXXU (IIHFWYDQGHJURRWWHYDQGHUHODWLHYH)RSGHWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQEHQ]RDS\UHHQELMHHQ WRWDOHERGHPFRQFHQWUDWLHLVPJNJ 65&KXPDDQ'HVWLSSHOOLMQJHHIWGHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQ

ELMHHQUHODWLHYH) GHKXLGLJHVLWXDWLH

 9HUEHWHULQJLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQYUDDJ

%LQQHQGLWSURMHFWZRUGWSHUFRQWDPLQDQWZRUGWRQGHU]RFKWRIHHQJHQHULHNHZDDUGHYRRU )JURQGJHEUXLNWNDQZRUGHQ,QGLHQGLWQLHWKDDOEDDUEOLMNWGRRUGDWEHSDDOGHIDFWRUHQDOV

ERGHPW\SHEHSDOHQG]LMQYRRU)JURQGZRUGWRQGHU]RFKWRIIDFWRUVSHFLILHNHZDDUGHQYRRU

)JURQGJHEUXLNWNXQQHQZRUGHQ0HWGH]HZDDUGHQYRRU)JURQG]DOGHUHODWLHYH)EHUHNHQG

ZRUGHQ 7HUEHSDOLQJYDQGH65&KXPDDQZRUGWGHQLHXZHZDDUGHYRRUGHUHODWLHYH)PHHJHQRPHQLQ GHEHUHNHQLQJ'LW]DOOHLGHQWRWDDQSDVVLQJYDQGH65&KXPDDQ 'HJURRWWHYDQKHWHIIHFWYDQGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUYRRUJURQGRSGH 65&KXPDDQNDQSHUFRQWDPLQDQWYHUVFKLOOHQLVRDDIKDQNHOLMNYDQKHWEHODQJYDQGH EORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHJURQGLQJHVWLH7HULOOXVWUDWLHZRUGWKHWHIIHFWYDQGHJURRWWHYDQGH UHODWLHYH)RSGH65&KXPDDQYDQHHQZLOOHNHXULJHFRQWDPLQDQWLQGLWJHYDOEHQ]RDS\UHHQ JHWRRQGLQILJXXU%ORRWVWHOOLQJDDQEHQ]RDS\UHHQZRUGWYRRUYHURRU]DDNWGRRU LQJHVWLHYDQJURQG ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (      UHODWLHYH) OLI HO RQ J DY HU DJ H H[ SR VX UH G RV LV L Q P J NJ G D\ KXLGLJH 075

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

)LJXXU (IIHFWYDQGHJURRWWHYDQGHUHODWLHYH)RSGH65&KXPDDQYDQEHQ]RDS\UHHQ'HVWLSSHOOLMQ

JHHIWGH65&KXPDDQDDQELMHHQUHODWLHYH) GHKXLGLJHVLWXDWLH               UHODWLHYH) 6 5 & K XP DD Q V RL OF RQ FH QW UD WLR Q LQ P J NJ  KXLGLJH 65&KXPDDQ

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 :HUNZLM]HXLWZHUNLQJGRHOVWHOOLQJ

 7HEHSDOHQSDUDPHWHUVYRRUUHODWLHYH)

'HUHODWLHYH)LVJHGHILQLHHUGDOV UHODWLHYH) )JURQG)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

8LWILJXXUEOLMNWGDW)LVRSJHERXZGXLWHHQDDQWDOGHHOSURFHVVHQ) )E[)D[)K 'LWEHWHNHQWGDWUHODWLHYH)RRNDOVYROJWNDQZRUGHQJHVFKUHYHQ

UHODWLHYH) )EJURQG[)D[)K)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLH[)D[)K

9RRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGHUHODWLHYH)PRHWLQHONJHYDO)EJURQGH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDDOGZRUGHQ

LQVRPPLJHJHYDOOHQPRHWWHYHQV)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDDOGZRUGHQ]LHVFKHPD

 6FKHPD $DQSDNYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQUHODWLHYH)YDQHHQZLOOHNHXULJHFRQWDPLQDQW )EJURQGH[SHULPHQWHHOEHSDOHQ )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHNHQG" MD QHH )DHQ)KEHNHQG" MD QHH )JURQGEHUHNHQHQ  )E[)D[)K )EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHH[SHULPHQWHHO EHSDOHQ )DHQ)KFRQVWDQWYHURQGHUVWHOOHQ YRRU)JURQGHQ)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

UHODWLHYH)EHUHNHQHQ UHODWLHYH) )EJURQG)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

UHODWLHYH)EHUHNHQHQ UHODWLHYH) )JURQG)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW $G +RHZDDUVFKLMQOLMNLVGHDDQQDPHGDW)DHQ)KFRQVWDQW]LMQELMYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDWULFHV"'H PDQLHUZDDURSHHQVWRIGHGDUPZDQGSDVVHHUWHQRIGHVWRIHHQVXEVWUDDWLVYRRUHHQ PHWDEROLVHUHQGHQ]\PZRUGWEHSDDOGGRRUGHI\VLVFKFKHPLVFKHHLJHQVFKDSSHQYDQGHVWRI 'LWLVHHQHLJHQVFKDSYDQGHVWRI]HOIHQQLHWYDQGHWRHGLHQLQJVYRUP'XVPHHVWDOLVGH DDQQDPHGDW)DHQ)KFRQVWDQW]LMQGXVRQDIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHKRHGUDQNYRHGLQJERGHPGH VWRILVWRHJHGLHQGFRUUHFW0DDUELMVWRIIHQGLHGHGDUPZDQGSDVVHUHQGRRUJHEUXLNWHPDNHQ YDQFDUULHURIWUDQVSRUWHLZLWWHQNDQKHW]LMQGDWGHDEVRUSWLHQLHWOLQHDLUPHWGHFRQFHQWUDWLH LVYHU]DGLJLQJRIGDWHUFRPSHWLWLHPHWELMYRRUEHHOGYRHGVHOFRPSRQHQWHQRSWUHHGW(HQ YRRUEHHOGKLHUYDQ]LMQRD]ZDUHPHWDOHQ'DUPZDQGFHOOHQKHEEHQUHFHSWRUHQHQ WUDQVSRUWHLZLWWHQRPELMYRRUEHHOGFDOFLXPRIDQGHUHPLQHUDOHQLQYROGRHQGHPDWHRSWH NXQQHQQHPHQLQGHGDUP=ZDUHPHWDOHQPDNHQJHEUXLNYDQGLH]HOIGHWUDQVSRUWURXWHVRPGH GDUPZDQGWHSDVVHUHQ,QDDQZH]LJKHLGYDQKHWQDWXXUOLMNHVXEVWUDDWELMYFDOFLXP]DOHU GRRUFRPSHWLWLHPLQGHUYDQKHW]ZDUHPHWDDOGHGDUPZDQGSDVVHUHQ,QGLWJHYDO]DOGH DDQQDPHGDWGHDEVRUSWLHRQDIKDQNHOLMNLVYDQGHWRHGLHQLQJVYRUPPDWUL[]RQGHUFDOFLXP PDWUL[PHWFDOFLXPQLHWMXLVW]LMQ+HW]HOIGHJHOGWYRRUPHWDEROLVPH$OVHULQppQYDQ EHLGHWRHGLHQLQJYRUPHQHHQDQGHUHVWRI]LWGLHKHWPHWDEROLVPHYDQGHWHRQGHU]RHNHQVWRI EHwQYORHGWLVKHWPHWDEROLVPHQLHWRQDIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHWRHGLHQLQJVYRUP0DDUYDDN]DOGH DDQQDPHGDWDEVRUSWLHHQPHWDEROLVPHYDQHHQVWRIRQDIKDQNHOLMNLVYDQGHPDWUL[ZDDULQGH VWRIZRUGWWRHJHGLHQGMXLVW]LMQ &RQFOXVLH )EJURQGPRHWLQHONJHYDOEHSDDOGZRUGHQ3HUFRQWDPLQDQWPRHWEHNHNHQZRUGHQRI )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH)DHQ)KEHNHQG]LMQ,QGLHQppQYDQGH]HSDUDPHWHUVQLHWEHNHQGLV

]LMQPRHWWHYHQV)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHSDDOGZRUGHQ7HYHQVPRHWSHUFRQWDPLQDQW

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 $DQSDNYRRUEHSDOLQJ)E

JURQG

'HDDQSDNGLHJHYROJGZRUGWYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQ)EJURQGLVVFKHPDWLVFKZHHUJHJHYHQLQ

VFKHPDHQZRUGWYHUGHUWRHJHOLFKWLQSDUDJUDDIWP1DJHJDDQZRUGWRI)EJURQG

PHWEHKXOSYDQHHQLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOGDWGHYHUWHULQJLQKHWPDDJGDUPNDQDDOVLPXOHHUW EHSDDOGNDQZRUGHQ7HYHQVZRUGWRQGHU]RFKWRI)EJURQGRRNPHWEHKXOSYDQHHQ

PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOEHSDDOGNDQZRUGHQ 6FKHPD $DQSDNYRRUEHSDOLQJ)EJURQG

 2S]HWWHQYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

2PGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQHHQFRQWDPLQDQWXLWJURQGWHNXQQHQEHSDOHQLVELM/%0KHWLQ YLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOYDQ5RWDUGHWDOYHUGHUJHRSWLPDOLVHHUG'H]HRSWLPDOLVDWLHVWDDW EHVFKUHYHQLQ5,90UDSSRUW6LSVHWDO(HQYDQGHEHODQJULMNVWH DDQSDVVLQJHQLVKHWPRGHOWHRSWLPDOLVHUHQYRRUGHI\VLRORJLHYDQNLQGHUHQ

 &RQWDPLQDQWHQ

,QLVLQRYHUOHJPHWGHRSGUDFKWJHYHUFRQWDFWSHUVRRQ&'HQQHPDQHHQ SULRULWHLWHQOLMVWRSJHVWHOGYDQGHWHRQGHU]RHNHQFRQWDPLQDQWHQ'HVWRIIHQ]LMQJHSULRULWHHUG DDQGHKDQGYDQGHYROJHQGHYLHUFULWHULDRSEDVLVYDQH[SHUWMXGJHPHQW  )UHTXHQWYRRUNRPHQLQERGHPPHWQDPHERYHQJURQG  $DQ]LHQOLMNHELMGUDJHYDQEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWH³LQJHVWLHYDQJURQG´DDQGHWRWDOH EORRWVWHOOLQJ RS]HWH[SHULPHQWHQ ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\PHWHQYDQFRQWDPLQDQW;XLW ERGHP< IDFWRUHQFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXERGHPW\SHHQ ERGHPS+FRQWDPLQDQWHWFYDULsUHQ VWDWLVWLVFKHGDWDDQDO\VH :HONHIDFWRUHQ]LMQEHSDOHQGYRRU ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\" PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHORS]HWWHQ DKYEHSDOHQGHIDFWRUHQ ,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHORS]HWWHQ YDOLGDWLHPRGHO  %LQQHQHQWXVVHQGDJYDULDWLH  0HWKRGLHNYHUJHOLMNLQJ  9HUJHOLMNLQJPHWLQYLYRGDWD )EJURQG

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW  9HUPRHGHOLMNHHQJURRWYHUVFKLOWXVVHQLQQDPHHQRSQDPH  &RQWDPLQDQWHQXLWUHSUHVHQWDWLHYHJURHSHQ 9HUYROJHQV]LMQWRWQRJWRHGHYROJHQGHFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO RQGHU]RFKW+LHUELMLVJHNR]HQYRRUGHGULHPHHVWSULRULWDLUHFRQWDPLQDQWHQXLWGHJURHS ³PHWDOHQ´HQXLWGHJURHS³RUJDQLVFKHYHUELQGLQJHQ´ • ]ZDUHPHWDOHQ ORRG FDGPLXP DUVHHQ • RUJDQLVFKHYHUELQGLQJHQ %D3 %D$ ''7''( 1DRYHUOHJPHWGHRSGUDFKWJHYHULQMXQLLVEHVORWHQRPQDWHJDDQRIGH]H SULRULWHLWHQOLMVWKHU]LHQPRHWZRUGHQ2SEDVLVYDQKHWUDSSRUW/LM]HQHWDO ZRUGWHHQQLHXZHSULRULWHLWHQOLMVWRSJHVWHOGVHOHFWLHFULWHULXPLQJHVWLHYDQ FRQWDPLQDQWYLDJURQG!]LHSDUDJUDDI

 'HWHRQGHU]RHNHQERGHPPRQVWHUV

9DQZHONHERGHPPRQVWHUVGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\]DOZRUGHQEHSDDOGLQKHWLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOLVDIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHWHEHDQWZRRUGHQEHOHLGVYUDDJ]LH • 9RRUGHYHUEHWHULQJYDQGHLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHLV³GH1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´LQKHWLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOJHWHVW]LH+LHUELMLVJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQWZHHVRRUWHQPRQVWHUVQO DUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPVHQSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV $G9RRUKHWPDNHQYDQGH]HPRQVWHUVLVJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQGHPHHVW YRRUNRPHQGHERGHPVRRUWHQLQ1HGHUODQG'H]H]LMQRSYHUVFKLOOHQGH FRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXVJHVSLNHGPHWGHGHVEHWUHIIHQGHFRQWDPLQDQW[,:'H EHGRHOLQJLVGDWKLHUPHHRQGHU]RFKWNDQZRUGHQZDWKHWHIIHFWYDQKHWW\SHERGHPLVRS GHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\HQZDWKHWHIIHFWLVYDQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXRSGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ $G'LW]LMQPRQVWHUVGLHLQKHWYHOGYHURQWUHLQLJG]LMQDOVJHYROJYDQYHUVFKLOOHQGH RRU]DNHQ'H]HPRQVWHUVNXQQHQJHEUXLNWZRUGHQRPQDWHJDDQRIGHDUWLILFLHHO JHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPVELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDRSOHYHUHQGLHRYHUHHQNRPHQPHWGLHYDQ SUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV • ,QGLHQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHEHSDDOGPRHWZRUGHQ]LH ]XOOHQWHYHQVERGHPPRQVWHUVYDQGH]HYHURQWUHLQLJGHORFDWLHLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO ZRUGHQJHWHVW

 ,QYLYRYDOLGDWLH

2PGHEHWURXZEDDUKHLGYDQGHGDWDYHUNUHJHQPHWKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHODOVYRRUVSHOOLQJ YRRUGHPHQVYDVWWHVWHOOHQLVHUHHQLQYLYRYDOLGDWLHYDQKHWGLJHVWLHPRGHOQRRG]DNHOLMN(U ]DOQDJHJDDQZRUGHQKRHGH]HLQYLYRYDOLGDWLHNDQZRUGHQXLWJHYRHUG

 0HWKRGLHNYHUJHOLMNLQJ

7HUYHUJHOLMNLQJYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOYDQKHW5,90PHWDQGHUHGLJHVWLHPRGHOOHQ ZRUGWJHVWUHHIGQDDUGHHOQDPHDDQHHQULQJVWXGLHFRQWDFWJHOHJGPHWDQGHUHRQGHU]RHNHUVGLH ZHUN]DDP]LMQRSGLWJHELHG

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 0DWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO

+HWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOZRUGWRPWZHHUHGHQHQRQWZLNNHOG

 2PQDWHNXQQHQJDDQZHONHIDFWRUHQYDQLQYORHG]LMQRS)EJURQG]RDOVFRQWDPLQDWLH

QLYHDXPHWDDOVSHFLDWLHERGHPW\SHHWF+LHUWRH]XOOHQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDYDQGH DUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPV]LHJHDQDO\VHHUGZRUGHQPHWKHW

PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO2SEDVLVYDQGLWPRGHONDQZRUGHQQDJHJDDQRIHUHHQJHQHULHNH )EJURQGYRRU³GH1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´NDQZRUGHQEHSDDOG,QGLHQGLWQLHWPRJHOLMNEOLMNW

NDQZRUGHQQDJHJDDQRIHHQIDFWRUVSHFLILHNH)EJURQGNDQZRUGHQEHSDDOG

 2PQDWHJDDQRIKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRUYRRUVSHOOLQJHQYDQGHORFDWLHVSHFLILHNH )EJURQGJHEUXLNWNDQZRUGHQ

 $DQSDNYRRUEHSDOLQJYDQ)E

PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

3HUFRQWDPLQDQW]DOZRUGHQQDJHJDDQRIKHWQRGLJLVRP)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHH[SHULPHQWHHOWH

EHSDOHQ]LH,QGLHQQRGLJ]DOQDJHJDDQZRUGHQZHONHPDWULFHVJHEUXLNW]LMQLQGH WR[LFLWHLWVVWXGLHGLHWHQJURQGVODJOLJJHQDDQGH075KXPDDQ'H)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHNDQYHUYROJHQV

EHSDDOGZRUGHQLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO+LHUELMPRHWQRJEHNHNHQZRUGHQRIKHWLQ YLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHODDQSDVVLQJEHKRHIWYRRUKHWWHVWHQYDQGH]HPDWUL[

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 :HUN]DDPKHGHQWRWQXWRH

 ,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

,QGH]HSDUDJUDDIZRUGHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHH[SHULPHQWHQGLHPHWKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO ]LMQXLWJHYRHUGVDPHQJHYDW3HURQGHUGHHOZRUGHQNRUWGHUHVXOWDWHQZHHUJHJHYHQHQ YHUYROJHQVZRUGHQGHFRQFOXVLHVHQPRJHOLMNHNQHOSXQWHQDDQJHJHYHQ

 2SWLPDOLVDWLHHQELQQHQGDJHQWXVVHQGDJYDULDWLH

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3 1HH -D 1HH -D -D 1HH %D$ -D -D -D -D -D 1HH FRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXHQ[LQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGH FK\PH GDUPVDSPHQJVHOYDQVSHHNVHOPDDJVDSHQGXRGHQXPVDS]RDOVGLWLQGHGXQQHGDUPYRRUNRPW ,QWDEHO]LMQGHJHJHYHQVYDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDYRRUGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ LQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOVDPHQJHYDW0HHUGHWDLOVYRRUGHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ3E62HQ 3E12HQ%D3]LMQWHUXJWHYLQGHQLQ6LSVHWDO'HGDWDYRRUDUVHHQHQFDGPLXP ]LMQVOHFKWVLQGLFDWLHIGHVSUHLGLQJLQGHJHWDOOHQLVJURRW*/3UDSSRUWDJH &RQFOXVLH • 'HWXVVHQHQELQQHQGDJYDULDWLHYDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ3EHQ%D3YRRUGDWD]LH UDSSRUWWRQHQDDQGDWKHWPRJHOLMNLVRPYRRUHHQERGHPLQWHVFKDWWHQLQ ZHONHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\FDWHJRULHGH]HYDOWQOODDJPLGGHQRIKRRJ !ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQGHFRQWDPLQDQW3HUERGHPW\SHNDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ DDQ]LHQOLMNYHUVFKLOOHQG]LMQ • 'HWXVVHQHQELQQHQGDJYDULDWLHYDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ$VHQ&GYRRUGDWD]LH*/3 UDSSRUWDJHLVWHJURRWRPEHWURXZEDUHXLWVSUDNHQWHNXQQHQGRHQ'LWZRUGW PRJHOLMNYHURRU]DDNWGRRULQKRPRJHQLWHLWYDQGHDUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGH ERGHPVRRUWHQ

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

7DEHO%LRDFFHVVLELOLW\LQLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOPHWNLSSHQJDO

%RGHP ,: 3E62 3E12 $V  &G  %D3

=HHNOHL     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ 5LYLHUNOHL     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ +XPXVULMN     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ +XPXVDUP     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ 6WXLI]DQG     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ 9HHQ     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ /RVV     “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ *HWDOOHQQLHWEHWURXZEDDUGRRUJURWHVSUHLGLQJPRJHOLMNYHURRU]DDNWGRRULQKRPRJHQLWHLWYDQGHPRQVWHUV • +HWOLMNWHURSGDWHUHHQQLHWOLQHDLUYHUEDQGLVWXVVHQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXHQGH ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ3EHQ%D36LSVHWDO • 9RRU$VHQ&GOLMNWKHWYHUEDQGWXVVHQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXHQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ OLQHDLUWH]LMQPDDUGRRUGHJURWHVSUHLGLQJHQLVKLHURYHURQYROGRHQGH]HNHUKHLG*/3 UDSSRUWDJHEULHIUDSSRUW .QHOSXQWHQ • +HWRS]HWWHQYDQHHQDQDO\VHPHWKRGHYRRU''7''(LQFK\PHLVQLHWJHOXNW+HWZDV QLHWPRJHOLMNRPHHQEHWURXZEDUHPHWKRGHRSWH]HWWHQZDDUPHHJHYRHOLJJHQRHJ JHPHWHQNRQZRUGHQ • ,QKRPRJHQLWHLWERGHPPRQVWHUVQDVSLNHQPHW$VHQ&G*/3UDSSRUWDJH 'LWNDQPRJHOLMNZRUGHQRSJHORVWGRRUERGHPVQDWWHVSLNHQ'LW]DOLQ YHUYROJH[SHULPHQWHQZRUGHQJHGDDQ • 'HVWUXFWLHYDQERGHPRISHOOHWVYDQGLJHVWLHPRQVWHUYRRUEHSDOLQJYDQ$V&GHQ3EZDV QLHWFRPSOHHWZDDUGRRUGHUHFRYHU\JHHQZDV*/3UDSSRUWDJH

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 9HUJHOLMNLQJJDOVRRUWHQ

'HNLSSHQJDOGLHYRRUKHHQLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOZHUGJHEUXLNWNDQVLQGVQLHW PHHUJHOHYHUGZRUGHQ+LHUGRRUZDVKHWQRRG]DNHOLMNRPGHRYHUVWDSQDDUUXQGHUJDORI YDUNHQVJDOWHPDNHQ2QGHU]RHNQDDUGHHIIHFWHQYDQNLSSHQJDOYHUVXVUXQGHUHQYDUNHQVJDO KHHIWPHHULQ]LFKWJHJHYHQLQGHHIIHFWHQYDQPRGHOYHUVFKLOOHQPQZDWEHWUHIWJHEUXLNWH JDOVRRUWRSGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGFDGPLXPHQDUVHHQXLWERGHP9RRUGH]H H[SHULPHQWHQLVJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQGHSUDNWLMNERGHPPRQVWHUVXLWGHULQJVWXGLHYDQ %$5*(]LH 7DEHO%LRDFFHVVLELOLW\“6'YDQORRGFDGPLXPHQDUVHHQXLWYHUVFKLOOHQGH ERGHPPRQVWHUVQDGLJHVWLHPHWYHUVFKLOOHQGHJDOVRRUWHQ*/3UDSSRUWDJH &RQWDPLQDQW %RGHPVRRUW UXQG

,&1 6LJPDUXQG 6LJPDYDUNHQ 6LJPDNLS

ORRG 2NHU “ “ “ “ 0RQWDQD “ “ “ “ )ODQGHUV “ “ “ “ DUVHHQ 2NHU “ “ “ “ 0RQWDQD “ “ “ “ )ODQGHUV “ “ “ “ FDGPLXP 2NHU “ “ “ “ 0RQWDQD “ “ “ “ )ODQGHUV “ “ “ “ &RQFOXVLH 'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ELMGLJHVWLHPHWNLSSHQJDO]LMQLQYHUVFKLOOHQGHJHYDOOHQDDQ]LHQOLMNKRJHU GDQGLHYRRUGHDQGHUHJDOVRRUWHQ'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ELMGLJHVWLHPHWUXQGHUJDORI YDUNHQVJDOLVYHUJHOLMNEDDU 'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPXLWGH]HSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVYHUWRRQGJHHQJURWH VSUHLGLQJ]RDOVZHOZHUGJHYRQGHQELMGHDUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHPRQVWHUV]LH :DDUVFKLMQOLMN]LMQGHSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVKRPRJHQHUGDQGHDUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGH PRQVWHUV .QHOSXQWHQ *HHQ

 0HWKRGLHNYHUJHOLMNLQJ

'HZHUNJURHS%$5*(%LRDYDLODELOLW\5HVHDUFK*URXS(XURSHLVRSJHULFKWLQGHFHPEHU (UKHEEHQHHQDDQWDOZRUNVKRSVSODDWVJHYRQGHQHQHULVHHQULQJVWXGLHXLWJHYRHUGRP HHQHHUVWH]LFKWWHNULMJHQLQGHHIIHFWHQYDQYHUVFKLOOHQLQGHJHEUXLNWHPRGHOOHQRSGH JHYRQGHQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\UHVXOWDWHQ,QGH]HULQJVWXGLH]LMQGULHYHUVFKLOOHQGH SUDNWLMNERGHPVPHWFRQWDPLQDWLHVYDQDUVHHQFDGPLXPHQORRGRQGHU]RFKWLQ YHUVFKLOOHQGHLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOHQ'HJHEUXLNWHPRGHOOHQZDUHQHHQVWDWLVFKPDDJ PRGHOYHUVFKLOOHQGHVWDWLVFKPDDJGDUPNDQDDOPRGHOOHQHQHHQG\QDPLVFK PDDJGDUPNDQDDOPRGHO'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQYDQDUVHHQFDGPLXPHQORRGYDQ HHQ]HOIGHPRQVWHUYDULHHUGHQVWHUNWXVVHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHLQYLWURPRGHOOHQ(U]LMQHHQ DDQWDOIDFWRUHQGLHGHYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHLQYLWURPRGHOOHQNXQQHQ YHURRU]DNHQQOGHYHUEOLMIWLMGYDQGHERGHPLQGHPDDJGDUPNDQDDOFRPSDUWLPHQWHQ GHS+YDQKHWPDDJVDSHQYDQKHWGXQQHGDUPVDSGHYHUKRXGLQJGLJHVWLHVDSERGHP

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW RSZHUNLQJYDQGHFK\PHLQWHUVSHFLHVYHUVFKLOOHQLQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHPRGHOOHQLVJHEUXLN JHPDDNWYDQJDODINRPVWLJYDQYHUVFKLOOHQGHGLHUVRRUWHQ7RWRSKHGHQLVKHWQRJQLHW GXLGHOLMNZDWGHLQYORHGYDQGH]HIDFWRUHQRSGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\LV+HWOLMNWHURSGDWPHW QDPHGHS+LQKHWPDDJFRPSDUWLPHQWEHSDOHQGLVYRRUGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ]ZDUH PHWDOHQ'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQJHPHWHQLQGH]HULQJVWXGLHZDUHQRYHUZHJHQG 2RPHQHWDOVXEPLWWHG &RQFOXVLH 'HYHUVFKLOOHQGHLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOHQODWHQRRNGDDGZHUNHOLMNJURWHYHUVFKLOOHQLQ ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQ]LHQ'HS+LQKHWPDDJFRPSDUWLPHQWLVYRRUHHQJURRWGHHO EHSDOHQGYRRUGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ]ZDUHPHWDOHQ 2PGHGDWDYHUNUHJHQXLWppQYDQGHLQYLWURPRGHOOHQWRHWHSDVVHQYRRUULVLFRVFKDWWLQJLV KHWQRRG]DNHOLMNRPHHQLQYLYRYDOLGDWLHXLWWHYRHUHQ .QHOSXQWHQ *HHQ

 3UDNWLMNPRQVWHUV

7$8: ,QKLVWRULVFKJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPPRQVWHUVDINRPVWLJYDQYHUVFKLOOHQGHORNDWLHVLQGULH YHUVFKLOOHQGHVWHGHQLQ1HGHUODQGLVGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGRQGHU]RFKW'H]HPRQVWHUV ]LMQELM/%0YRRUDQDO\VHLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHODDQJHERGHQGRRUGKU57KHHOHQ 7$8:0LOLHX%9'HYHQWHU'HKRHYHHOKHLGORRGLQGH]HERGHPVLVGRRUGULHH[WHUQH ODERUDWRULDEHSDDOGZDDUELMHONODERUDWRULXP]LMQHLJHQPHWKRGHJHEUXLNWH'LWUHVXOWHHUGHLQ VXEVWDQWLHOHYHUVFKLOOHQZDWKHWPRHLOLMNPDDNWRPHHQEHWURXZEDUHLQWHUSUHWDWLHWHJHYHQ YDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWD %HUJHQRS=RRP ,QKLVWRULVFKJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPPRQVWHUVDINRPVWLJYDQORNDWLHVLQ%HUJHQRS =RRPEHPRQVWHULQJRSWRWSOHNNHQHQLQSRWVFKHUIPRQVWHUVDINRPVWLJYDQORNDWLH LQ%HUJHQRS=RRPLVGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGRQGHU]RFKW'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ3ELQ GH]HERGHPPRQVWHUVZDVPLGGHOPDWLJJHPLGGHOGUDQJH'H ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\XLWSRWVFKHUYHQEOHHNODDJPDDUGRRUGHKRJHFRQFHQWUDWLHVORRGLQ SRWVFKHUYHQNDQGHDEVROXWHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\WRFKKRRJRSORSHQ9RRUZDWEHWUHIWGH ULVLFRVFKDWWLQJ]DOPRHWHQZRUGHQQDJHJDDQLQZHONHPDWHLQJHVWLHYLDSRWVFKHUYHQHHQ EHODQJULMNHEORRWVWHOOLQJVURXWHNDQ]LMQWHQRS]LFKWHYDQLQJHVWLHYDQJURQG %$5*(ULQJVWXGLHPHWSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV ,QGHULQJVWXGLHLVJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQYHUVFKLOOHQGHSUDNWLMNERGHPVGLHKLVWRULVFKJH FRQWDPLQHHUG]LMQPHWDUVHHQFDGPLXPHQORRG8LWGH]HVWXGLHEOLMNWGDWGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ DIKDQNHOLMNLVYDQGHERGHPVRRUW'HKRRJVWHELRDFFHVVLELOLWLHVYRRUDOOHGULHGHPHWDOHQ ZHUGHQJHYRQGHQLQ)ODQGHUVVRLO7DEHO'LWLPSOLFHHUWGDWHUPRJHOLMNVSHFLILHNH ERGHPNDUDNWHULVWLHNHQ]LMQGLHEHODQJULMN]LMQYRRUGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQPHWDOHQLQKHW DOJHPHHQ'HUDQNRUGHYDQGHKRRJWHYDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQGHPHWDOHQLQGH YHUVFKLOOHQGHERGHPVRRUWHQZDVHFKWHUQLHWKHW]HOIGHYRRUDOOHPHWDOHQ.HQQHOLMN]LMQRRN PHWDDOVSHFLILHNHHLJHQVFKDSSHQEHODQJULMN &RQFOXVLH

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ 7$8:'HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGYDULHHUGHQYDQRYHUGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHORNDWLHV 'H]HUDQJHNRPWRYHUHHQPHWGHUDQJHLQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQORRGJHYRQGHQLQDUWLILFLHHO JHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPV,QEHLGHERGHPVZRUGWHHQWUHQGJHYRQGHQYDQDIQHPHQGH ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQELMHHQWRHQHPHQGRUJDQLVFKVWRIJHKDOWHKRHZHOGH]HUHODWLHQLHW KHHOGXLGHOLMNLV+HWRUJDQLVFKVWRIJHKDOWHYDQGHERGHPLVPRJHOLMNVOHFKWVppQYDQGH YHOHIDFWRUHQGLHGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\EHSDOHQ6LSVHWDO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 5LQJVWXGLH%$5*('HELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQ$V&GHQ3ELVYHUVFKLOOHQGLQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGH ERGHPVRRUWHQGLHJHWHVW]LMQLQGHULQJVWXGLH%OLMNEDDUEHLQYORHGHQIDFWRUHQDOV ERGHPNDUDNWHULVWLHNHQFRQWDPLQDQWVSHFLDWLHLQERGHPHQRIFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXGH ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\*/3UDSSRUWDJH2RPHQHWDOVXEPLWWHG .QHOSXQWHQ *HHQ

 ,QYLYRYDOLGDWLH

(U]LMQFRQWDFWHQJHOHJGPHWHHQRQGHU]RHNVJURHSLQGH96GLHRRNHHQLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOKHEEHQRQWZLNNHOG5XE\HQPHWHHQRQGHU]RHNVJURHSLQGH96GLHLQYLYR H[SHULPHQWHQKXPDDQKHHIWJHGDDQPHWORRGKRXGHQGHERGHPV0DGGDORQL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

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

 0DWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO

,QHHUVWHLQVWDQWLHZDVKHWGHEHGRHOLQJGHYHUNUHJHQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDWHDQDO\VHUHQ PLGGHOVVWDWLVWLVFKHDQDO\VHHQRSGH]HPDQLHUWHEHSDOHQZHONHIDFWRUHQEHSDOHQG]LMQYRRU GHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\]LHSDUDJUDDI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 0 500 1000 1500 % LR DF FH VV LE OH IU DF WLH P J NJ G U\  VR LO )LJXUH 9RRUEHHOGYDQGHDQDO\VHYDQGHUHODWLHWXVVHQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXYDQORRGQLWUDDW[ DVHQGHELRDFFHVVLEOHIUDFWLRQ\DV(HQOLQHDLUHHQHHQQLHWOLQHDLUH*DSRQYHUJHOLMNLQJ OHLGWWRWQDXZHOLMNVEHWHUHEHVFKULMYLQJYDQGHGDWDZDDUGHYRRUGHORJOLNHO\KRRGOLQHDLU QRQOLQHDLU +HWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOODDW]LHQGDWGHGDWDVHWVHYHQJRHGEHVFKUHYHQNXQQHQZRUGHQPHW HHQOLQHDLUHYHUJHOLMNLQJDOVPHWHHQQLHWOLQHDLUHYHUJHOLMNLQJ,QILJXXUORRGHQ EHQ]RDS\UHHQLVHHQYRRUEHHOGJHWRRQGYRRU]RZHOHHQOLQHDLUHDOVHHQQLHWOLQHDLUH EHVFKULMYLQJYDQGHGDWDYRRUHHQERGHP8LWGH]HILJXXUEOLMNWGDWHUJHHQGXLGHOLMNH YRRUNHXULVYRRUHHQYDQEHLGHYHUJHOLMNLQJHQELMGH]HERGHP%RYHQGLHQODWHQQLHWDOOHGDWD VHWVYDQDOOHERGHPHHQGXLGHOLMNHYRRUNHXU]LHQYRRUppQEHSDDOGHYHUJHOLMNLQJZDW LPSOLFHHUWGDWGHEHVFKLNEDUHGDWDQLHWWRHVWDDQRPHHQGHILQLWLHYHFRQFOXVLHWHWUHNNHQRYHU GHUHODWLHWXVVHQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXHQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\HQRYHUGHWRHSDVEDDUKHLGYDQ GHJHEUXLNWHWKHRULH*DSRQYHUJHOLMNLQJHQ6FDWFKDUGYHUJHOLMNLQJ6LSVHWDO

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

0 50 100 150 200 250

Totale concentratie (mg/kg droge stof)

0 10 20 30 40 B ioacc e ss ib le f ra c ti e (m g/ k g droge )LJXUH 9RRUEHHOGYDQGHDQDO\VHYDQGHUHODWLHWXVVHQKHWFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXYDQEHQ]R>D@S\UHHQ [DVHQGHELRDFFHVVLEOHIUDFWLRQ\DV(HQOLQHDLUHHQHHQQLHWOLQHDLUH6FDWFKDUG YHUJHOLMNLQJEHVFKULMYHQGHGDWDH[DFWHYHQJRHG &RQFOXVLH+HWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRU]RZHOORRGDOVYRRU%D3LVQRJQLHWJHVFKLNWRP ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\LQHHQZLOOHNHXULJHERGHPWHNXQQHQVFKDWWHQ(U]LMQEHWHUHGDWDVHWVQRGLJ RPGHUHODWLHWXVVHQFRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXHQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\WHNXQQHQEHVFKULMYHQ .QHOSXQWHQ 'RRUGHWHJURWHVSUHLGLQJLQGHGDWDLVKHWQLHWPRJHOLMNQDXZNHXULJHVFKDWWLQJHQWHPDNHQ PHWKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO'LW]RXPRJHOLMNRSJHORVWNXQQHQZRUGHQGRRURSPHHU QLYHDXVWHPHWHQ'LWLVYHUGHUXLWJHZHUNWLQGHQLHXZHSURHIRS]HW]LHSDUDJUDDI

 5HODWLHYH)YRRUORRG

2SEDVLVYDQYRRUORSLJHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDYDQORRGXLWERGHPLVGHUHODWLHYH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQORRGEHSDDOG'H]HIDFWRULVJHEUXLNWELMGHKHU]LHQLQJYDQGH LQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHYDQORRGXLWJHYRHUGLQ/LM]HQHWDO,QGH]HEHUHNHQLQJLVGH )D JHQRPHQOLWHUDWXXUJHJHYHQVHQ)E SHUFHQWLHOXLWGDWDSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV 7$8:HQ)K JHHQPHWDEROLVPH'LWOHLGWWRW)JURQG )D[)E[)K [[

[ 2SEDVLVYDQGH]HUHVXOWDWHQQDDUGHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQORRGXLWJURQGLV HHQYRRUORSLJHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUYRRUJURQGYDQ

UHODWLHYH) )JURQG)075ORRG¶  YRRUJHVWHOG'H]HIDFWRULVWHYHQV

RSJHQRPHQLQGHHLQGUDSSRUWDJHYDQGHWHFKQLVFKZHWHQVFKDSSHOLMNHHYDOXDWLHYDQGH ,QWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQYRRUERGHPVHGLPHQWHQJURQGZDWHU/LM]HQHWDO

%RYHQVWDDQGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUYRRUORRGNRPW]HHUJRHGRYHUHHQPHWGH UHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUGLHYRRUEORRWVWHOOLQJVPRGHOOHULQJYRRUORRGLQERGHP ZRUGWJHKDQWHHUGGRRUGH86(3$86(3$YHURQGHUVWHOWGDWGHDEVROXWHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLG YDQORRGXLWJURQGYRRUNLQGHUHQLVYHUJHOLMN)JURQGHQGDWGHDEVROXWH

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQORRGXLWGHYRHGLQJHQZDWHUYHUJHOLMNPHW)075ORRG¶LV'H UHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRUGRRU86(3$UHODWLHYHDEVRUSWLHIDFWRU5$)JHQRHPG EHGUDDJWLQGLWJHYDOHYHQHHQV

 :HUN]DDPKHGHQRSLQWHUQDWLRQDDOQLYHDX

,QWHUQDWLRQDDO]LMQGLYHUVHVDPHQZHUNLQJVYHUEDQGHQRQWVWDDQZDDULQDDQGDFKWZRUGWEHVWHHG DDQKHWRQGHU]RHNQDDUELRDFFHVVLELOLW\HQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQLQ ERGHP,Q(XURSHHVYHUEDQG]LMQGLW%$5*(HQ,62%$5*(%LRDYDLODELOLW\5HVHDUFK *URXS(XURSH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'HDFWLYLWHLWHQRS EHOHLGVPDWLJYODN]LMQQRJQLHWJHVWDUW2SYRRUZDDUGHGDWGHILQDQFLHULQJYDQGH]H ZHUNJURHSJHUHJHOGNDQZRUGHQ]DOJHVWDUWZRUGHQPHWKHWYHUYROJRQGHU]RHN]RDOV EHVFKUHYHQLQKHWSURMHFWSODQRSJHQRPHQLQELMODJH 'HZHUNJURHSLQ,62YHUEDQG([SHUWLQ,627&6&:*³&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIVRLO ZLWKUHVSHFWWRKXPDQH[SRVXUH´EHVWDDWVLQGVHQKHHIWDOVGRHOVWHOOLQJRPRSEDVLVYDQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQVHQVXVLQSULQFLSHZHUHOGZLMGWRWHHQEHVFKULMYLQJYDQHHQLQYLWUR WHVWV\VWHHPSK\VLRORJLFDOO\EDVHGH[WUDFWLRQPHWKRGYRRUKHWVFKDWWHQYDQGHRUDOH ELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQPHWDOHQLQJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHJURQGWHNRPHQHQDGYLHVWHJHYHQRYHU KHWMXLVWHJHEUXLNYDQHHQGHUJHOLMNHWHVWV\VWHHP%LQQHQGH]HZHUNJURHSZRUGHQQRJJHHQ H[SHULPHQWHQXLWJHYRHUG0RPHQWHHOZRUGWJHZHUNWDDQHHQPHWKRGLHNYHUJHOLMNLQJRSEDVLV YDQEHVFKLNEDUHGDWDOLWHUDWXXUHQKHWUDDGSOHJHQYDQH[SHUWV2SEHOHLGVPDWLJYODN]LMQQRJ JHHQDFWLHVRQGHUQRPHQ ,QGH86$LVLQ³WKH6ROXELOLW\%LRDYDOLODELOLW\5HVHDUFK&RQVRUWLXP´6%5& RSJHULFKWPHWDOVGRHOKHWRQWZLNNHOHQHQYDOLGHUHQYDQLQYLWURPHWKRGHVYRRUKHWVFKDWWHQ YDQGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQPHWDOHQLQJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPV,QHHUVWH LQVWDQWLHZRUGWJHNHNHQQDDUORRGKHWLQLWLsOHGRHOLVKHWRQWZLNNHOHQYDQHHQLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOLQGH86$RRNZHOLQYLWURH[WUDFWLRQWHVWJHQRHPGGDWFRUUHOHHUWPHWLQYLYR PHWLQJHQYDQUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQERGHPLQKHW³\RXQJVZLQHPRGHO´,QGH SHULRGHYDQKHHIW(3$5HJLRQ9,,,HHQRUDOHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGDVVD\LQHHQ ³\RXQJVZLQHPRGHO´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(HQSURWRFROYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ YDQGLR[LQHQIXUDQHQLQERGHPLVLQYRRUEHUHLGLQJSHUVRRQOLMNHPHGHGHOLQJ$JQHV2RPHQ

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

RQGHUKRXGWQDPHQVKHW5,90GHFRQWDFWHQPHW5XE\([SRQHQW*URXS%RXOGHUHQ 0DGGHORQL(3$1HZ<RUN

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 &RQFOXVLHVHQGLVFXVVLHRYHUWRHSDVVLQJYRRUEHOHLG

,QKHWRQGHUVWDDQGH]DOLQGHKDDOEDDUKHLGYDQGHPHWKRGLHNHQLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOHQ PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOWHUEHSDOLQJYDQ)EJURQGZRUGHQEHVSURNHQHQLQGHKDDOEDDUKHLG

YDQGHWRHSDVVLQJYDQGH]HPHWKRGLHNHQYRRUGHEHOHLGVYUDJHQ

 +DDOEDDUKHLGYDQGHPHWKRGLHNHQ

+HWLVPRJHOLMNRPGH)EJURQGWHEHSDOHQPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOGDWLV

RSJH]HW0RPHQWHHONDQGH)EJURQGYRRUORRGDUVHHQFDGPLXPEHQ]RDS\UHHQHQ

EHQ]RDDQWKUDFHHQEHSDDOGZRUGHQ'LWLVUHHGVJHGDDQYRRUORRGDUVHHQFDGPLXPHQ EHQ]RDS\UHHQLQYHUVFKLOOHQGHDUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHQHGHUODQGVHERGHPVRRUWHQ+HW PRHWHFKWHUQRJEOLMNHQRIKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOGHLQYLYRVLWXDWLHJRHGVLPXOHHUWHHQLQ YLYRYDOLGDWLH]DO]RVSRHGLJPRJHOLMNSODDWVPRHWHQYLQGHQ (ULVHHQHHUVWHDDQ]HWJHPDDNWYRRUHHQPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOYRRUORRGHQEHQ]RDS\UHHQ 'HEUXLNEDDUKHLGYDQKHWPDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOLVQRJRQGXLGHOLMN+LHUYRRU]LMQDDQYXOOHQGH H[SHULPHQWHQQRGLJZDDURSGLWPRPHQWDDQJHZHUNWZRUGW

 +DDOEDDUKHLGYDQGHWRHSDVVLQJYDQGHPHWKRGLHNHQ

 ,VVDQHULQJRSHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHQRRG]DNHOLMNRSJURQGYDQGHKXPDQH EORRWVWHOOLQJLVHUHHQDFWXHHOULVLFROLJWWRWDOHEORRWVWHOOLQJERYHQ075KXPDDQ"" ,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

+HWLV]HHUJRHGPRJHOLMNRPPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOGH)EJURQGYDQHHQ

SUDNWLMNPRQVWHUWHEHSDOHQ'LWLVUHHGVXLWJHYRHUGYRRUORRGDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPXLW

YHUVFKLOOHQGHERGHPVRRUWHQXLWGHSUDNWLMN+LHUELMGLHQWRSJHPHUNWWHZRUGHQGDWGHLQYLYR YDOLGDWLHYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOQRJRQWEUHHNW

/RRG

'H)EJURQGYDQORRGNDQJRHGEHSDDOGZRUGHQPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

9RRUORRGLVKHWPRJHOLMNRPGHUHODWLHYH)YRRUJURQGWHEHSDOHQRPGDW)D HQ )K EHNHQG]LMQXLWGHOLWHUDWXXU'DDUQDDVWLVYRRUORRGRRNGH)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

EHNHQGHQPHWGH]HJHJHYHQVNDQGXVGHUHODWLHYH)ZRUGHQEHUHNHQG $UVHHQFDGPLXP

'H)EJURQGYDQDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPNDQRRNEHSDDOGZRUGHQPEYKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

'LWLVUHHGVJHGDDQYRRUGULHYHUVFKLOOHQGHSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV'HUHODWLHYH)NDQEHUHNHQG ZRUGHQDOVGH)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHNHQGLVHQDDQJHQRPHQZRUGWGDW)DHQ)KFRQVWDQW]LMQ'H

)EJURQGNDQRRNJHEUXLNWZRUGHQRPGH)JURQGYRRUDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPWHEHUHNHQHQLQGLHQ)D

HQ)KEHNHQG]LMQ9HUYROJHQVNDQGDQGHUHODWLHYH)EHUHNHQGZRUGHQLQGLHQGH )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHNHQGLV

2YHULJHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ

,QSULQFLSHLVKHWPRJHOLMNRPYDQHONHFRQWDPLQDQWGH)EJURQGWHEHSDOHQLQKHWLQYLWUR

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

FRQWDPLQDQWGLHQWGDQWHZRUGHQXLWJH]RFKWRI)DHQ)KEHNHQG]LMQHQRIGH]HFRQVWDQW EOLMYHQLQYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDWULFHV'DDUQDDVWPRHWXLWJH]RFKWZRUGHQRI)PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHRI

)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHEHNHQG]LMQ 0DWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO +HWLVRSGLWPRPHQWQRJQLHWPRJHOLMNRPYRRUHHQVSHFLILHNHORFDWLHPEYKHW PDWKHPDWLVFKPRGHOWHYRRUVSHOOHQZDWGHUHODWLHYHELREHVFKLNEDDUKHLGVIDFWRULVYRRUHHQ EHSDDOGHFRQWDPLQDQW'HKDDOEDDUKHLGYDQ]R¶QYRRUVSHOOHQGPRGHO]DOQDGHQLHXZXLWWH YRHUHQH[SHULPHQWHQPHWORRGPRHWHQZRUGHQYDVWJHVWHOG  .XQQHQLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGHQ65&VKXPDDQYHUEHWHUGZRUGHQGRRUKHWYHUYDQJHQYDQ

UHODWLHYH) GZ])JURQG )PDWUL[WR[VWXGLHGRRUHHQFRQWDPLQDQWVSHFLILHNHZDDUGH

YRRUUHODWLHYH)",QGLHQMDZHONHZDDUGHQYRRUUHODWLHYH)NXQQHQGDQJHEUXLNW ZRUGHQ"

,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

'HWRHSDVVLQJYDQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOLMNWYDQQXWWH]LMQYRRUEHDQWZRRUGLQJYDQGH WZHHGHYUDDJ2SEDVLVYDQGHKXLGLJHUHVXOWDWHQYRRUORRGHQEHQ]RDS\UHHQLVKHWQLHWJRHG PRJHOLMNRPHHQJHQHULHNH)EJURQGYRRU³GH1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´YRRUORRGWHEHSDOHQ

RPGDWGHZDDUGHQWHVWHUNOLMNHQWHYHUVFKLOOHQSHUERGHPVRRUW7HYHQVYHUWRQHQGH ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GDWDYRRUDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPHHQWHJURWHVSUHLGLQJ(HQPRJHOLMNHRRU]DDN KLHUYRRULVGHLQKRPRJHQLWHLWYDQGHDUWLILFLHHOJHFRQWDPLQHHUGHERGHPHQGLW]DOQDGHU RQGHU]RFKWPRHWHQZRUGHQ'HPRJHOLMNHLQKRPRJHQLWHLWYDQGHERGHPVZRUGWEHYHVWLJG GRRUGHODJHVSUHLGLQJLQELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQDUVHHQHQFDGPLXPLQGHSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVGLH JHEUXLNW]LMQLQGHULQJVWXGLH%$5*(]LHWDEHO ,QHHQHHUGHUVWDGLXPLVRSEDVLVYDQYRRUORSLJHUHVXOWDWHQHFKWHUZHOHHQJHQHULHNH)EJURQG YRRU³GH1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´YRRUORRGDIJHOHLGRSEDVLVYDQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGH SUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVYDQ7$8:'H]HUHVXOWDWHQ]LMQJHEUXLNWYRRUKHU]LHQLQJLQWHUYHQWLHZDDUGH ORRG5,90UDSSRUW/LM]HQHWDO+LHUELMLVKHWSHUFHQWLHOJHQRPHQYDQGH ELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQGLHJHYRQGHQ]LMQLQGH]HVWXGLHPHGLDDQ SHUFHQWLHO,QUHFHQWHUHH[SHULPHQWHQZDDULQSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV]LMQJHWHVW%HUJHQ RS=RRPHQULQJVWXGLH%$5*(ODJHQGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\ZDDUGHQRQGHUGH 2SEDVLVYDQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGHSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVYDQ7$8:LVHHQYRRUORSLJHUHODWLHYH) YRRUJURQGYDVWJHVWHOGYDQ2QGDQNVGHEHSHUNWHKRHYHHOKHLGGDWDNRPWGH]HUHODWLHYH) ]HHUJRHGRYHUHHQPHWGHUHODWLHYH)YDQGLHYRRUEORRWVWHOOLQJVPRGHOOHULQJYRRUORRGLQ ERGHPZRUGWJHKDQWHHUGGRRUGH86(3$ 0DWKHPDWLVFKPRGHO

'HHHUVWHUHVXOWDWHQWRQHQDDQGDWKHWQLHWPRJHOLMNLVRPHHQJHQHULHNH)EJURQGYRRU³GH

1HGHUODQGVHERGHP´WHEHSDOHQ:HOOLFKWLVKHWZHOPRJHOLMNRPHHQIDFWRUVSHFLILHNH)EJURQG

WHEHSDOHQ'LW]RXYHUGHURQGHU]RFKWPRHWHQZRUGHQPDDUKLHUYRRU]LMQPHHUH[SHULPHQWHQ QRGLJ

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 +RHYHUGHU"

,QGHRQGHUVWDDQGHSDUDJUDIHQZRUGWXLWHHQJH]HWKRHKHWYHUGHUHYHUORRSYDQKHWGHHOSURMHFW HUXLW]LHW2SHHQDDQWDOSXQWHQLVKHWYHUGHUHYHUORRSDIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHZHQVHQYDQ RSGUDFKWJHYHU'H]HSXQWHQZRUGHQDDQJHJHYHQLQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHSDUDJUDIHQHQGLHQHQRS NRUWHWHUPLMQEHVSURNHQWHZRUGHQPHWGHRSGUDFKWJHYHU]RGDWKHWGXLGHOLMNZRUGWZHON YHUYROJWUDMHFWHULQJH]HWNDQZRUGHQ

 ,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO

 +HU]LHQHSULRULWHLWHQOLMVWFRQWDPLQDQWHQ

$DQGHKDQGYDQKHWUDSSRUW/LM]HQHWDOLVRQGHUVWDDQGHOLMVWRSJHVWHOG YDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQZDDUYRRUJHOGWGDW!YDQGHLQQDPHSODDWVYLQGWYLDLQJHVWLHYDQ JURQG,QRYHUOHJPHWGHRSGUDFKWJHYHU]XOOHQXLWGH]HOLMVWHHQDDQWDOFRQWDPLQDQWHQ JHVHOHFWHHUGZRUGHQ9RRUGHJHVHOHFWHHUGHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ]DOGHUHODWLHYH)EHSDDOGZRUGHQ &RQWDPLQDQW YLDLQJHVWLHYDQJURQG $UVHHQ  %DULXP  &KURPLXP,,,  &KURPLXP,9  /RRG  $QWKUDFHQH  %HQ]RDDQWKUDFHQH  %HQ]RNIOXRUDQWKHQH  %HQ]RDS\UHQH  &KU\VHQH  3KHQDQWKUHQH  )OXRUDQWKHQH  ,GHQRFGS\UHQH  %HQ]RJK\SHU\OHQH  3\UHQH  $FHQDSKWHQH  %HQ]REIOXRUDQWKHQH  %HQ]RMIOXRUDQWKHQH  +)OXRUHQH  $FHQDSKWK\OHQH  0DQHE  %XW\OEHQ]\OSKWDODWH  'LVRGHF\OSKWKDODWH','3  'LEXW\OSKWKDODWH'%3  $OLSKDWLF!(&(&  $OLSKDWLF!(&(&  $OLSKDWLF!(&(& 

 2SWLPDOLVDWLHHQELQQHQHQWXVVHQGDJYDULDWLH

8LWWDEHOHQEOLMNWGDWHHQDDQWDOH[SHULPHQWHQQRJQLHW]LMQXLWJHYRHUG'H FRQWDPLQDQWHQ%D$HQ''(''7]LMQQRJQLHWJHWHVWLQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGH1HGHUODQGVH

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW ERGHPVRRUWHQ'LWLVYRRU''(''7RRNQLHWPRJHOLMNDDQJH]LHQHUJHHQJHVFKLNWH DQDO\VHPHWKRGHLV9RRU%D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

 0HWKRGLHNYHUJHOLMNLQJ

+HWOLJWLQGHEHGRHOLQJRPELQQHQ%$5*(LQGHNRPHQGHMDUHQGLHSJDDQGHURQGHU]RHNWH YHUULFKWHQQDDUGHYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQGHJHEUXLNWHLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOOHQWHQHLQGHLQ]LFKW WHYHUZHUYHQLQFRPSRQHQWHQGLHEHSDOHQG]LMQYRRUGHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YDQHHQVWRIXLW ERGHP7HYHQV]DOJHWUDFKWZRUGHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHGLJHVWLHV\VWHPHQWHYDOLGHUHQPHWLQ YLYRJHJHYHQV'LWRQGHU]RHNNDQDOOHHQZRUGHQXLWJHYRHUGLQGLHQILQDQFLHULQJYRRU%$5*( JHUHDOLVHHUGZRUGW]LHRRN

 3UDNWLMNPRQVWHUV

'HRSGUDFKWJHYHUKHHIWDDQJHJHYHQGDWHUYRRUPHHUSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVPHWQDPHERGHPVGLH ORRGEHQ]RDS\UHHQEHYDWWHQGHORFDWLHVSHFLILHNH)JURQGEHSDDOGPRHWZRUGHQ$IKDQNHOLMN

YDQGHEHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUV]XOOHQHUPHHUSUDNWLMNPRQVWHUVLQKHWLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOJHPHWHQZRUGHQ(UGLHQWQRJDIJHVSURNHQWHZRUGHQLQZHONHUDQJHKHW FRQWDPLQDWLHQLYHDXYDQGH]HPRQVWHUVGLHQWWHOLJJHQ

 ,QYLYRYDOLGDWLH

 =RDOVUHHGVYHUPHOGLQSDUDJUDDJLVKHWPRJHOLMNRPERGHPPRQVWHUVWHJHEUXLNHQ ZDDUYDQKXPDQHLQYLYRGDWDEHNHQG]LMQ'H]HPRQVWHUV]XOOHQLQKHWLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHO JHWHVWZRUGHQHQGHGDWDYRRUELRDFFHVVLELOLW\GLHKLHUXLWYHUNUHJHQZRUGHQ]XOOHQZRUGHQ YHUJHOHNHQPHWGHLQYLYRGDWD 

 ,QYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOYRRUJHYRHGHRPVWDQGLJKHGHQ

1XZRUGWHHQLQYLWURGLJHVWLHPRGHOJHEUXLNWGDWGHI\VLRORJLVFKHFRQGLWLHVLQKHW PDDJGDUPNDQDDOYDQHHQNLQGRQGHUQXFKWHUHRPVWDQGLJKHGHQQDERRWVW'LWLVGHZRUVWFDVH VLWXDWLH KRRJVWHELRDFFHVVLELOLW\YRRUORRG9RRUDQGHUHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ]RDOV%D3ZRUGW GHZRUVWFDVHVLWXDWLHHFKWHUEHUHLNWRQGHUJHYRHGHRPVWDQGLJKHGHQ+HWLQYLWUR GLJHVWLHPRGHOPHWYRHGLQJ]DOYHUGHURQWZLNNHOGZRUGHQLQGLHQEOLMNWGDWHUELMGH JHVHOHFWHHUGHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ]LHFRQWDPLQDQWHQ]LWWHQZDDUYRRUGLWPRGHOGHZRUVW FDVHVLWXDWLH]DO]LMQ 

 0HWKRGLHNWHUEHSDOLQJYDQ)E

PDWUL[WR[VWXGLH

"

1DVHOHFWLHYDQFRQWDPLQDQWHQZDDUYRRUGHUHODWLHYH)EHSDDOGPRHWZRUGHQ]LH]DO SHUFRQWDPLQDQWZRUGHQQDJHJDDQRIKHWQRGLJLVRP)EPDWUL[WR[VWXGLHH[SHULPHQWHHOWHEHSDOHQ

]LH,QGLHQQRGLJ]DOQDJHJDDQZRUGHQZHONHPDWULFHVJHEUXLNW]LMQLQGH