Vitalizing sustainable transport in Mumbai
An integrated analysis on the emissions and health and economic impacts of making
two-wheelers electric
Interdisciplinary Project, 2016 Date: 22/05/2016
Tutor: Myrte Mijnders Expert: Kenneth Rijsdijk By Martine Brunsting 10515771 Alex de Meyer 10683720 Hendrik Hagedoorn 10643532 Lukas Oosterbaan 10571906
Table of contents Abstract………..2 Introduction……….3 Theoretical Framework……….4 Methodology………6 Interdisciplinary Results………7
Discussion & Recommendations ..………21
ABSTRACT
Two-wheeled vehicles are the source of most pollution in India. The deteriorating air quality caused by this transport mode threatens the wellbeing of citizens in Mumbai. This air pollution does not only impose direct economic cost for human health, but it also reduces long-term productivity of the population. The sale of motorized two-wheeled vehicles is increasing rapidly which is only worsening these negative health and environmental impacts. In this setting, a sustainable alternative is needed to decline these environmental issues to such an extent that healthy surroundings and sustainable infrastructures can be guaranteed. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV’s) are seen as a more sustainable transport alternative that would reduce those environmental impacts and create healthier surroundings. In this research, the environmental and health costs of pollution from conventional vehicles will be
analysed and internalized in an economic evaluation.
As long as electricity in India is generated by the use of fossil fuel technologies, implementing BEV’s does not seem a more sustainable alternative. The air pollution is merely replaced from the city centre to the periphery, which might pose interesting perspectives for public health but does not contribute to lower environmental impacts. We stress the development of solar technologies as India has a huge potential for solar energy.
1. Introduction
In 2004 the IPCC reported that transport accounted for almost a quarter of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global energy use. Three-quarters of transport-related emissions are from road traffic (Kahn et al., 2004). Sperling et al. (2013) stated that the number of automobiles is growing at a faster rate than the human population so that in 2050 over 3 billion vehicles, compared to today’s 600 million, are estimated to be in existence. Along with this increase of automobiles, the increase in emissions from transport is predicted to increase by 80% between 2007 and 2030, which is faster than any other energy-using sector. This stresses the necessity to address the emissions from road transport around the globe.
It is alarming that this exponential increase in automobile ownership is nearly only located in urban areas (Molina & Molina, 2004). The increase of concentration has large consequences for cities at local scale, but includes difficulties on a global scale as well. The urban infrastructure is chronically overcrowded and suffers undependable service, congested roadways that slow down buses, and an operating environment that is often chaotic and completely uncoordinated (Pucher, 2004). The high usage of motorized vehicles has led to extensive suffering from harmful air pollution for urban populations (Gärling et al., 2002). To create healthier urban environments and to decrease environmental impacts from their transport systems, a shift from fossil fuel using vehicles to sustainable transportation (see TF) is needed.
Mumbai is an example of a fast growing megacity that is currently facing rapid population growth, urbanization and increasing wealth which has caused unprecedented growth in motorized vehicle ownership (Mahendra et al., 2014). Especially the sharply rise of two-wheelers has led to a transport causes chaos and congestion (Pucher, 2007). With 71%, two- wheelers account for the largest fraction of all vehicles registered in India (Mahendra et al., 2014) and are the most pollutant source of transport in India (Baker et al., 2005). Their emissions are deteriorating the air quality, which threatens the wellbeing of citizens in Mumbai (ibid). This not only imposes direct economic costs for human health but also reduces long-term productivity of the population (Srivastava & Kumar, 2002). In this setting a sustainable alternative of this threatening transport mode is needed to decline these environmental issues to such an extent that healthy surroundings and sustainable infrastructures can be guaranteed (Gärling et al., 2007).
As a sustainable option for the private transport system, Lehmann (2010) suggests smart infrastructures and implementation of electric mobility. In the late 80’s, electric mobility was considered as one of the solutions to make transport more sustainable. However, poor technological progress in the 90’s, hindered the implementation of electric vehicles in that period. This changed when in 2005 the Kyoto protocol launched: with the threat of having to purchase emission allowances, governments demanded the car industry to decrease vehicle emissions. Many countries started regarding electric mobility as a means of reducing CO2 emissions (ibid.).
This research will investigate the effects of establishing a shift from non-environmental friendly and fossil fuel burning two-wheelers to their electric counterparts in Mumbai. Such a type of transportation is thought to decrease environmental degradation and human health will be improved. The aim is to outline the environmental and public health impacts, or costs, that come along with pollution from transport in Mumbai and take these into account in economic evaluation. Therefore an interdisciplinary approach is used including environmental impacts analysis (earth sciences), health impacts analysis (biology) and lastly these impacts will be translated into costs and discussed from an economic perspective (economics). This report exists of a theoretical framework, where the most
2. Theoretical Framework
A theoretical framework is necessary to sketch the scientific debate for any concepts used in the report and solve this by providing a definition for this particular concept. This will be used to give clear definitions to several terms and simultaneously provide a framework that determines the borders. First, the most important concept, sustainable transport, will be discussed, since this can be seen as the basis of the research. This is followed by a brief explanation of what is meant by city smog, that addresses the pollution level in the city. Then a key economic theory, the theory of internalizing externalities, is further stated, that can provide a better understanding of the economic affairs.
Sustainable transport
The use of the term sustainable transport has proven to be problematic as it often reflects socially desirable attributes of local and project level problems instead of the global challenges the concept is supposed to solve (Holden, 2013). The definition of the concept has been broadened by different authors and policymakers by adding for example impacts on health, protecting wildlife and natural habitats, reducing levels of noise, promoting economic growth or facilitating education and public participation. Therefore, the definition of thee concept has become vague and offers less and less guidance.
The term sustainable transport was first brought to global attention in the Brundtland report (1987), which was composed by the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (WECD). The report urges the necessity to address pollution from transport as a major environmental problem and states that action should be taken on making a transition to sustainable transport. From its definition of sustainable development, we can derive a definition of sustainable transportation as the ability to meet today’s transportation needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their transportation needs (Richardson, 2005). The report presents four main dimensions of sustainable development: safeguarding long--term ecological sustainability, satisfying basic human needs, and promoting intra- and intergenerational equity (Brundtland et. al., 1987). Safeguarding long--term ecological sustainability includes protecting natural resources and environments as well as mitigating the effects of air pollution on the environment. These will be analysed and discussed in the earth sciences part. Satisfying human needs includes providing them with healthy environments, this will be discussed in the biology part. Lastly, promoting intra and intergenerational equity include accessibility of transport for all, which will be discussed in the economics part.
Also, sustainable transport mirrors in a conceptual model for zero-emission and zero waste urban design developed in the 90’s called ‘Green Urbanism’. This can be seen as a response to the environmental problem of air pollution due to emissions of two-wheelers. Green Urbanism implies the interdisciplinary idea of a new generation of 'zero-fossil fuel energy use, zero-emission (aiming for low-to-no-carbon emissions) and zero-waste cities', promoting an urban development in the triple-zero framework that is compact and energy-efficient (Lehmann, S., 2010). According to this theory there are principles that a city needs to achieve to get closer to the ideal picture of the triple-zero framework that was discussed earlier (Lehmann, S., 2010).
City Smog
Then, city smog is a phenomenon that is well known, but people underestimate what it exactly means. It
can be seen as a motivation for change, because smog shows a state of high pollution levels. An analysis of the smog that covers the city can explain the current amount and composition of emissions of Mumbai. A megacity can produce many pollutants that together cause the production of tropospheric (lower-atmosphere) smog and also pertubate the ozone in the stratosphere (Alexander, S. E., Schneider, S. H., & Lagerquist, K., 1997).
Smog is a mixture of air pollutants, nitrogen oxides and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC’s) that react with sunlight to form ozone. It behaves as a sort of blanket and can have hazardous consequences for the health of the local population, like an increased chance on lung cancer, asthma, respiratory diseases and premature deaths, caused by inhaling small particulate matter. Additionally, problems for the environment are also triggered by smog, for instance the disruption of the nitrogen and sulfur cycle (Alexander et al., 1997). The fact that pollution from other people’s motorcycles can harm people is better explained in the next part.
Theory of internalizing externalities
Next to that, this report makes use of the theory of internalizing externalities. The British economist Arthur Pigou devises this theory. He expressed the theory in his book “the economics of welfare”, which is published in 1920. The theory states, “An economic externality is a result of economic activity born by a third party”. It examines instances where the costs or benefits of activities extend the directly involved parties (Pigou, 1932). When it is a cost, which is imposed on the third party, it is a negative externality. When the third party benefits from an activity in which they are not directly involved, it is called a positive externality (Pigou, 1932).
Driving a car or vehicle, which creates air pollution and contributes to congestion, also can be seen as an external cost imposed on other people who live in the city.
Furthermore, Arthur Pigou also came up with an idea to solve this problem with externalities, which is called Pigovian tax. It is a tax levied on all market activities that generate negative externalities (Pigou, 1932). Furthermore, this tax is intended to correct an inefficient market outcome by setting the tax equal to the social cost of the externality. In the case of negative externalities, the private cost of the activity does not cover the social cost of the market activity. When this happens, the market outcome is not efficient and will most of the time lead to overconsumption (Aidt, 1998).
Moreover, this overconsumption on its turn comes in combination with extra pollution in this report about Mumbai. The private costs of driving a car, motor or scooter are lower than the social cost for the rest of the population of Mumbai. Especially the two-wheelers in Mumbai are problematic. These vehicles are very cheap for transportation, thus have low private cost, but have very high emissions. In addition, these emissions and the resulting city smog and health impacts, are the social cost in this case. Furthermore, it leads to climate change, congesting of the road, noise and less safety.
On the other hand, there is also a Pigouvian subsidy. So when there is under consumption of a good with positive externalities, it can get a subsidy. As a result, the good gets more attractive and the under consumption will disappear (Horaguchi, Toyne, 1990).
All in all, this Pigouvian tax and subsidy can be seen as “internalization”, because with these solutions, the cost of externalities is implemented in the price. With the help of this theory, sustainable
Now that the terms and theories, which might have caused scientific discussion are better defined, the framework of our report becomes clearer. This makes the research easier to understand and this framework acts like a basis for the rest of the study.
3.Methodology
This research is an interdisciplinary literature study. The aim is to outline the environmental and public health impacts, or costs, that come along with pollution from transport in Mumbai and take these into account in an economic evaluation. Therefore an interdisciplinary approach is used including environmental impacts analysis (earth sciences), health impacts analysis (biology) and lastly these impacts will be redefined into costs and discussed from an economic perspective (economics). Here the integrative technique of redefinition as described by Repko (2012) will be used to be able to economically evaluate the results from the environmental and health analyses. This means that we will search for a common meaning of the concepts but modifying the meaning as little as possible. This technique is visualized in the figure below, the results from the earth sciences part (green) on emissions and resource use will be used for the biological analysis (blue). The health and environmental impacts will then be redefined into economic concepts to be enable economic evaluation (pink) of these impacts. At last, all disciplines will come together in an interdisciplinary discussion and conclusion.
It is going to be a literature report based on studies about past and recent activity on the usage of two-wheelers in Mumbai. It will withhold an analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of introducing electric mobility to replace the former fossil fuel using two-wheelers.
There is sufficient case specific literature for the city of Mumbai that explains its current transport problems and can give sufficient information on the topic of sustainable transport (Tiwari, G., Jain, D., & Rao, K. R., 2015 & Shirgaokar, M., 2015 & Richardson, B. C., 2005).
There are many open sources available provided by the Indian government as well as by private enterprises on motorized vehicle use that will be used to support this report. Furthermore, there are various success storiesof other megacities transport systems (Han, S. S., 2010) that can be taken as an
example as well as lessons to be learned from less successful cases (Poboon, C., Kenworthy, J., & Barter, P., 1995).
4. Interdisciplinary Results
As for the results, this is divided in the three subjects. First, an overview of the current emissions of the two-wheelers and its environmental impact will be provided, which will be followed by the results of introducing electric mobility as a sustainable alternative of the motorized two-wheelers. This part is covered by the earth scientific discipline. Next, the ecologist will give the consequences for the health of the population in Mumbai and a potential impact assessment. Finally the economic responses will be discussed where the previously outlined health and environmental impacts will be evaluated in economic terms, which addresses the economic discipline in the research.
4.1 Current emissions and environmental impact
In this paragraph the current amount of emissions of the two-wheelers in Mumbai and its environmental impact will be given. It is important to be able to know in what way introducing electric mobility as a sustainable alternative will improve the air quality. Air pollutants by two-wheelers cause smog and this causes major concern, referring to the impacts on human health, to the general public (Hu, D., & Jiang, J., 2013).
Due to increased urban activity, air pollution in Mumbai is no longer restricted to conventional air pollutants like sulphur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, hydrogen sulphide, respirable particulate matter and ozone. It has been expanded by 41 different VOCs that have been identified in ambient air by the Environmental Protection Agency (Srivastava, A. et al., 2004).
Shirgaokar, M., (2015) stated that this expansion of air pollutants is related to the recent rise in motorized vehicles; the number of scooters and mopeds grew by 12% between 2009 and 2015 and private car ownership grew by 7% annually (see table 1 for an overview). In general, the uncontrolled growths of mopeds are undermining human health and urban environmental quality to exceptional and alarming heights (Haghshenas et al., 2013). Singh et al. (2004) discovered that 72% of air pollution is contributed by Mumbai traffic.
More specifically, the two-stroke motorcycles are responsible for the respirable particulate matter and the gasoline vehicles are mainly the source of the VOC and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. Together with the diesel vehicles they also produce the oxides of nitrogen. Lead aerosol is produced from combustion of leaded gasoline and the sulphur oxides from sulphur-containing fuels (Faiz, A., Weaver, C. S., & Walsh, M. P., 1996). Table 2 shows the energy demand for the different methods, which shows a significantly increasing trend in the demands for all the types of fuels in the latter years, except for diesel.
Table 1: Projected two-wheelers stock in Mumbai [Das, A., & Parikh, J., 2004]
Table 2: Projected energy demand for transport sector in Mumbai. Reprinted from [Das, A., & Parikh, J., 2004].
The concentration levels of the pollutants having an impact on health are of such heights that public health is under severe pressure and rising levels of hospital admission are registered. As Mumbai vehicle consist mostly of two wheelers and are the major cause for pollutant emissions, shifting towards electric vehicular use could potentially mitigate this problem. Research done by the Central Pollution Control Board (2010) has mapped the amount of pollutants present in the urban atmosphere as to determine the air quality in Mumbai. The average concentrations have been measured at seven different monitoring sites throughout the city (figure 2).
Figure 1: Average Concentrations of Different Pollutants at seven monitoring sites in Mumbai. Reprinted from [Central Pollution Control Board, 2010]
As can be seen from figure 2, the pollutants concentrations are measured at roughly the similar values. Larger fluctuations are the cause of traffic bottlenecks making concentrations significantly higher than elsewhere.
All these pollutants have different ways of reacting with the atmosphere and contributing to smog and air pollution. For instance, nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas (GHG) like carbon dioxide (CO2) and
water vapour that traps heat in the lower-atmosphere. Sulphur comes and goes in a natural cycle within natural boundaries. Anthropogenic influences disrupt this cycle by producing emissions of sulphur at the same or even greater amount than the natural production. Sulphur can have an existence in many forms, just like nitrogen, but the occurrence as sulphuric particles contributes the most to the smog formation in terms of visibility impairment (Alexander, S. E. et al., 1997). The ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and VOCs find their share in smog formation by influencing the complex chemical reactions that govern the rates of ozone formation in the troposphere (Norris, 2002). Figure 2 provides clarification on causes and consequences of tropospheric ozone formation. Lead aerosols affect the atmospheric chemical composition, reduce visibility and serve as nuclei for cloud droplets. The isotopic composition of lead aerosols is similar to that of the lead additives isolated from gasoline, which are the largest contributors to atmospheric lead pollution (Chow & Earl, 1970).
Figure 2: Cause-effect linkages for tropospheric ozone. Reprinted from [Norris, 2002].
other hydrocarbons in gasoline. These are photo chemically reactive and contribute to smog through a number of intermediate products that may be very toxic. After degradation of hydrocarbons it contributes to the formation of ozone (Brocco et al., 1997). This results in a shift of the primary pollutant and photochemical smog producer in the air. Benzene is a type of VOC and is a pollutant strictly related to automotive emissions - so from cars, scooters etc. - in the city (Srivastava, A. et al., 2004).
Further analysis of the smog indicated that the composition of the polluted air was highly oxidizing and that ozone was the principal bad actor, with smaller contributions from rest. It is formed when hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides combine with the help of the sunlight (Haagen-Smit, 1964).
The current amount and composition of the emissions in Mumbai from several different vehicles and the associated energy demands of types of fuels are now more clear. This way two-wheelers can be compared with other kinds of transport. Also, the different kinds of emissions and how these react with the environment are explained. This creates a certain impact on the environment when the recorded air quality exceeds the guidelines set by the World Health Organisation, which can be harmful to health
(World Health Organization, 2005). This will be better explained later in the report.
The city smog in Mumbai is relevant for the case, because it behaves as a derivative of global warming, which represents the problem and therefore the motivation of the research.
4.2 Environmental impact analysis of introducing electric vehicles in Mumbai In the previous part, it became clear that the combustion of oil in the Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) of conventional two-wheelers causes emissions of pollutants that deteriorate local air quality and contribute to the greenhouse effect. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV’s) are seen as a more sustainable transport alternative that would reduce those environmental impacts following the principles of Green Urbanism. The environmental impacts of BEV’s and CV’s are different in resources used for the production, energy used during the operations phase as well as the impacts of disposal after use. In this part, the environmental impacts of all these different phases of CVs and BEVs will be compared. For this comparison we assume the design of the vehicles to be exactly the same, excluding the CV engine and the BEV battery.
Resource use impact for production
New electric vehicles typically use lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries since lithium is the lightest of all metals and has a high energy density (Notter, 2010). The current environmental impact caused by the extraction of lithium for the components of the Li-ion battery is negligible (ibid.). However, mass commercialization of BEV’s would result in an unsustainable demand on lithium resources because of geochemical
constraints in extracting the product from deposits (Chagnes, 2013). Future supply could be met by alternative production ways such as production from ores or extraction from seawater and recycling, which is currently only implemented rarely (Stamp et al., 2012).
Besides lithium, a major contributor to the environmental burden caused by the battery production, is the supply of metals such as copper, steel, gold, tin and aluminum that are needed for the cathode and battery packaging. This results in important damage to resource quality (Chagnes, 2013) as well as in a high energy demand especially for the production of aluminum, the production of wafers for the battery management system, the production of graphite and the roasting processes of manganese carbonate to Mn2O3 or Li2CO3 and Mn2O3 to LiMn2O4 (Notter, 2010). Resource depletion can be reduced if recycling technologies are better developed and implemented (Changnes, 2013). The energy and metal use for the
production of batteries is higher than the energy and metal use for the production of ICE’s. Nevertheless, the reduced emission benefits gained during the operation phase if using renewable energies rise far above the impact of the battery production (Notter, 2010).
Operation Phase & Energy use impacts
BEV’s have no ICE and derive all power from battery packs. Their environmental impact is therefore highly dependent on the electrical energy that is provided by the national grid. Currently, electricity generation in India is dominated by coal, this sector accounts for 60% of all energy produced (Shukla et al., 2013). For renewable energy, hydropower is the only technology having a significant share of 15% (ibid.) This means that using electricity instead of oil mainly equals the combustion of coal and other fossil fuels in power plants. With large domestic reserves of coal as well as energy security
considerations, the use of coal in electricity production can only be expected to rise in the future (ibid.). Coal combustion causes sulphur emissions as well as airborne particulate matter (PM) and non-PM air contaminants, portions of nitrogen oxides (NO, NO2 particulate nitrate, and carbon dioxide (Mauderly et al., 2011). The contributions of coal combustion to organic carbon and most inorganic components of environmental PM, are small in relation to contributions from gasoline (ibid.). In the following part a deeper analysis of air pollution and smog formation will be presented.
According to Das, A., & Parikh, J., (2004) Mumbai stays relatively clean, with the implementation of strict emission norms and the introduction of clean fuel. The pollution load declines by about 50%, from 135,000 tonnes in 1997 to 61,000 tonnes in 2015. However, this increases to 84,000 tonnes again along with the increase in travel demand. Gasoline driven vehicles make the HC and CO continue to remain the main pollutants, while the particulates, SOx and NOx emissions go down during 1997–2020 because of lesser use of diesel driven vehicles, low sulphur diesel and stricter emission norms (Das, A., & Parikh, J., 2004). Still, because the electricity generation in India is dominated by coal, the combustion of this causes these at first slowly degrading particles to remain as pollutants in the air and a zero-emission policy as Green Urbanism implies will be prevented this way.
This dominance of coal in power generation is expected to continue in the next few decades, given the relatively low cost of coal-based generation and the lack of significant other resources for power generation. Besides the fact that there are limited domestic coal resources, it also stimulates climate change. The coal-fired power plants are responsible for the emissions of CO2 and nitrogen oxides. These plants can be seen as the single largest source of GHGs in India (Chikkatur & Sagar, 2009).
Nitrogen oxides form when fossil fuel burns at high temperatures; they are caused primarily by motor vehicles and the burning of fossil fuels in electricity generation. Nitrogen oxides are both a local and regional pollutant, and contribute to ozone, smog, acid rain, and the formation of particulate matter. Transport-based volatile hydrocarbon emissions result from incomplete fuel combustion (fuel evaporation also causes VHC emissions) (Liddle, 2013).
Table 3: BAU projected emissions (1000 tonne) from the transport sector in Mumbai. Reprinted from [Das, A., & Parikh, J., 2004]
CO2 emissions from coal power plants are higher per kWh than the emissions from oil combustion (Gronset & Solberg, 2013). The emissions per kWh for coal are at 1001g whereas those of oil combustion are at 840.
As long as the energy on the Indian grid is mainly generated by the combustion of fossil fuels, BEV’s do not necessarily offer a lower emission alternative to CV’s. India possesses its own oil (Chowdhurry, 1992) and coal reserves (Shuklas, 2013) which is why the use of these fossil fuels is not expected to decrease in the near future. Currently, hydropower is the only renewable energy technology having a significant share but it is expected to decline given the social and environmental implications of large dams (Shukla, 2013).
India has an enormous potential for solar energy, which is estimated at 5000 trillion kWh per year (Kapoort et al., 2014). Theoretically, India's electricity needs can be met on a total land area of 3000 km2, which is equal to 0.1% of total land in the country (ibid.) The government of India launched Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) on 11th January 2010, which is one of the eight missions under National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC–2008). This offers interesting prospects in the development of renewable energy as well as for the reduced impact from BEV’s. However, no significant progress through grid connected solar thermal technology has recently been made in India. To conclude, implementing BEV’s in Mumbai without changing the energy mix on the grid will only cause lower emissions in the city centre of Mumbai but will account for higher emissions at fossil fuel power plants of which especially coals plants. Therefore, the environmental impacts are only translocated to the periphery instead of reduced with the current way of electricity generation in India. The current energy production in India leads to high air pollutant emissions as well as resource depletion. If the potential of solar energy will be used, the implementation of BEV’s will be able to largely reduce emissions during the operation phase.
4.3 Health impact analysis (Ecology)
Asia has the largest number of cities having poor air qualities (Onogawa, 2008). Between 1999 and 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards have greatly been exceeded in fifteen megacities in Asia, including Mumbai (Haghshenas et al., 2013). The increasing numbers of two-wheelers will only further deteriorate the air quality in Mumbai, thus further damaging public health. This section will provide insights on the emissions affecting public health most and to what extent people are under threat of suffering from bad air quality.
Guidelines
In 2012 around 7 million people died as a result of exposure to air pollution (WHO, 2016). To illustrate, this is one in eight of the total global deaths (!). As of today, confirmed is that bad air quality is world’s largest single environmental health risk (WHO, 2005).
The WHO is a constitution that Guidelines are set by the WHO as to secure public health from bad air quality. It, although not legally binding, provides guidelines aiming support countries in attaining their health objectives and support their national health policies and strategies (WHO, 2005).
The pollutants addressed are the ones that, according to the WHO, affect health most. Guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide are vital for securing public health as well as the environment. The guidelines set by WHO, indicating the amount that can be inhaled without significant consequences, are presented in table 4.
Table 4 : Guidelines for emission concentrations that support good air quality set by WHO. [World Health Organization, 2005].
Guidelines:
PM2.5 10 ug/m3 annual mean
25 ug/m3 24-hour mean
PM10 20 ug/m3 annual mean
50 ug/m3 24-hour mean
NO2 40 ug/m3 annual mean
200 ug/m3 1-hour mean
O3 100 ug/m3 8-hour mean
SO2 20 ug/m3 24-hour mean
500 ug/m3 10-minute mean
Emission evaluation
These pollutants will now be assessed to explain the impact they cause on human health.
Furthermore the emission concentration presented in the previous section (figure 2) will be compared to the guidelines mentioned above as to visualize the extent that these guidelines have been exceeded,
Particulate Matter
Particulate matter (PM) is seen as the deadliest form of air pollution (US EPA, 2010). They have the ability to penetrate deep into the lungs and blood streams unfiltered. These are microscopic particles suspended in the atmosphere. Since the suspended particles have various characteristics, the particles are designated to various health impacts. The particles that cause the most health damage are PM2.5
(particle diameter < 2.5μm) and PM10 (particle diameter < 10μm) as they are small and easily inhaled. It is
the primary cause for lung cancer, asthma, respiratory diseases and premature deaths ( Raaschou-Nielsen, 2013).
The WHO adds to this as they monitor the PM particles in each city (figure 3). This shows that the PM10 concentration is over ten times(!) the critical level set by WHO. The PM2.5 concentration is 4 times higher than acceptable.
Figure 3 : Air pollution data of Particulate Matter in Mumbai with guidelines. Reprinted from [World Health Organization]
The concentrations to these particulates have exceeded the guidelines to alarming heights (figure 1, 3 & table 4).
A study in Europe showed that for every increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 a 22% rise in lung cancer cases
was discovered. Even more striking was the 36% increase in lung cancer patients due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 from the smaller PM2.5, making it even deadlier (Raaschou-Nielsen, 2013).
Since the amounts are respectively exceeded with 10 & 4 times, the impact it has on health is striking and very alarming.
Ozone
Ozone is a pollutant emitted by burning fossil fuel (ibid.). When directly come into contact with on a daily basis, it harms lung function and irritates the respiratory system (WHO,2005). High concentrations of ozone are linked asthma levels, premature deaths, whilst long-term exposure increases respiratory illness death rates. Jerret et al. (2009) found that the risk of dying from lung diseases was over 30% bigger when living in cities with high ozone levels. As ozone levels are exceeded by a fourth fold from the safe guidelines the chances of lung disease developments and the additional mortality are highly dangerous. The guideline of 100ug/m3 is therefore critical to endeavour, especially to larger cities having high amounts of ozone in their atmosphere.
Figure 4 : Left - Average yearly ozone concentration in Mumbai. Right - Health guidelines ozone in ppb. Reprinted from [Marathe & Murthy, 2016]
The concentration level of ozone has increased gradually throughout the past decade (Marathe & Murphy, 2016). Figure 4 shows this increase, and also shows that the concentration level has passed the guideline for over notable number of years. It furthermore presents the health impact at various concentration levels. As of 2014, with a level of 145 ppb, concentrations have reached an unhealthy air quality level. This is 50% higher than the WHO advises. This indicates that increased number of patients suffering from lung diseases occur in Mumbai.
Sulphur dioxide & Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide are pollutants, not only contributing to global warming, but also inducing toxic airway effects (WHO, 2005). Exposure to concentrations beyond guideline levels cause enhanced respiratory symptoms in asthmatic patients. Even greater threat to health is
enforced when these oxides react with compounds in the atmosphere as to form small particles. These particles behave like particulate matter and can penetrate deeply into the lung organs. This causes respiratory diseases to worsen and triggering intensified heart diseases. An increased concentration therefore leads to increased number of patients and more causalities of premature deaths.
Figure 5 : Average Concentrations of NO2 (top) & SO2 (bottom) at seven monitoring sites in Mumbai with bar indicating guidelines. Reprinted from [Central Pollution Control Board, 2010]
The NO2 level is, with an average concentration of 50 ug/m3 (figure 5), slightly higher than the advised norm of 40 ug/m3, therefore contributing to increased health diseases. The amount of SO2 in the air at the sites is relatively low and does not significantly exceed the guideline for this concentration. Although not significantly higher, this does not imply that this pollutant is to be neglected. It still adds in considerable amounts to the health issues.
Health impact assessment
As mentioned before, Indian cities are facing major deterioration of human well being due to lack of sufficient care taking in air quality caused predominantly by two-wheelers.
A research done by Sravistava & Kumar (2002) has estimated the impacts of air pollutants on health in Mumbai. The result has been carried out taking into account the average numbers of cases in the population at different society levels. The results conducted from this research are summarized in table 5.
Table 5 : estimated impacts of air pollutants on health. Reprinted from [Sravistava & Kumar, 2002]
This data shows that Mumbai with an estimated population of 17 million people suffers greatly from various lung diseases. To enlighten this other researches of the impact of specific concentration levels are used to strengthen the necessity of aiding Mumbai towards better air qualities.
All together can be said that the high concentrations of these pollutants are the main cause of respiratory diseases, asthmatic patients, heart diseases, premature deaths and so on. When no actions are taken the air quality in Mumbai is expected to deteriorate by a factor of 3 in the next 10 – 15 years (Dhakras, 2004). Shifting to an alternative driving source would mitigate this deterioration severely and possibly add to healthier surroundings.
Electric two wheelers on health
When two wheelers are changed from fossil fuel using two wheelers to electric two wheelers, levels of emission concentration will change, depending on its production source. Because electric vehicles itself do not emit pollutants the concentration levels in the city will show gradual declines when unsustainable two wheelers are removed (ibid.). This will improve air quality with great extent, lowering health damages and consequently improving quality of life in the city.
The controversy however, lies in the process of generating electricity. Generating electricity one-way or the other contributes to emission concentrations (ibid.). Now the source of pollutants is not centred in the city, but is shifted to the generation location as has been mentioned in the previous paragraph. Environmental variability’s such as winds and gusts could blow emissions from the source into the city air (Mauderly, 2011). However, when speaking only of health impacts within the city, shifting towards electric vehicle use does help decline the number of patients as concentration levels are less.
It can be concluded that air quality standards are greatly harmed due to the high concentration levels of harmful pollutants. Public health is under severe pressure and safeguard of citizens their well-being can not be fully assured. A shift in vehicle use will improve air quality, and thus health , drastically. A small remark however is that harmful pollutant concentrations are displaced to the generation source causing people still to be susceptible to lowered air quality.
4.4 Economic responses
The amount of two-wheelers is still strongly increasing, while there are already roughly estimated 650 thousand two-wheelers in Mumbai. Moreover, 72% of the air pollution in Mumbai is caused by vehicular emission. Since two-wheelers in Mumbai account for 45% of the total amount of vehicles, it can be concluded that making these two-wheelers electric would make a huge difference in the amount of air pollution in Mumbai (Singh, 2004). Since the environmental and public health impacts of the polluting two-wheelers in Mumbai are outlined, these impacts will now be translated into costs and discussed from an economic perspective.
Internalizing externalities
India with its huge population is dealing with a very high poverty rate. Almost 400 million people in India live in poverty, which accounts for one third of the world's total poverty. Moreover, despite a huge economic growth, the absolute number of poor people in India is still increasing. Since Mumbai is one of the richer (mega)cities of India, the poverty level here is a bit lower, but it is still alarming (The World Bank, 2014).
Next to that, getting all the two wheelers electric is much easier when affecting future vehicle design instead of forcing conversions on the already existing vehicles (Pucher et al., 2004).
in Mumbai. So there is a need for finding a way to make it more affordable. Internalizing the externalities of the two wheelers would perfectly fit in this case. On the one hand, the government have to put taxes on harmful fossil fuels shown in the previous section such as taxes on nitrogen dioxide emission. With as result that the externalities, the emissions and resulting city smog, get internalized and so these fuels get
more expensive.
On the other hand, with the money the government earns from this risen tax, they can subsidize electric vehicles. This subsidy makes the electric two-wheelers cheaper and therefore can make it affordable for the lower classes of the population of Mumbai.
Besides, a rapid and significant transition to cleaner vehicles and alternative fuels in the transport sector only take place in cases with internalizing its externalities (Takeshita, 2012).
So internalizing the externalities, in other words put tax on harmful fossil fuels and subsidy on electric two-wheelers, would firstly encourage a transition to an electric two-wheelers and secondly make is more affordable for the lower classes (Aidt, 1998).
Health costs
In this section the consequences for the health of the population of Mumbai will get economically valuated.
The valuation of the morbidity and mortality in the present work has been carried out taking into account an average income for all different levels of Mumbai’s society. As a result, the willingness to pay for health damage has also been taken as an average for all the different levels of Mumbai’s society. The considered wage in Mumbai equals 80 Rs. (Indian Rupee) per day and we assumed 200 working days a year with a discount rate of 5 per cent. For clarity, 1 Euro equals 75 Indian Rupee (Srivastava & Kumar, 2002). Note that all these tables and numbers are the results for air pollution. So these health impacts and costs are for a big part the result of the city smog caused by vehicular emissions and therefore without these emissions these costs will disappear.
For the estimated impact of air pollutant on health in Mumbai is summarized in Table 5. What is the most striking of these numbers is that almost one million people suffer from asthma of the 17 million citizens of Mumbai in total. What is more, asthma and also bronchitis are the most known effects of a deteriorating air and city smog.
Moreover, Srivastava, A., & Kumar, R. (2002) have also valuated these estimated impacts of air pollutants on health (See table 6).
The total health costs numbers have been evolved combining morbidity and mortality, so combining the costs of deaths and prolonged sickness due to the estimated impacts of air pollutants on health. Next to that, table V shows the avoidance costs of vehicular pollution in Mumbai. These avoidance costs of the vehicular pollution have been estimated by considering the prices of non-noble, metal-based catalytic converters for four and two wheelers and particulate straps for diesel vehicles
(Srivastava & Kumar, 2002).
Considering these costs, there can be concluded that the total avoidance of vehicular pollution is about Rs. 2411 million, while the total health costs due to air pollution is Rs. 11.224 million (Srivastava & Kumar, 2002). In other words, without the pollution by vehicles the total health costs will be lowered with Rs. 2411 million equalling 29 per cent.
However, since we are only investigating the impact of making the two-wheelers in Mumbai electric, we do not need to use the total avoidance costs of vehicular pollution. As a result, we take the avoidance costs of the two-wheelers, which accounts for Rs. 651 million.
So all in all, the avoidance cost of the polluting two-wheelers is around 6 per cent. Because we divide the avoidance costs of the pollution emitted through two-wheelers (Rs. 651 million) by the total health costs of air pollution (11.224 million). Consequently, when making all the two wheelers in Mumbai electric will result in a decline of 6 per cent, equalling Rs. 651 million, in health costs for the citizens of Mumbai (Srivastava & Kumar, 2002).
Although, the economic valuation done here have several associated problems, the valuation methodology adopted gives a good picture of the health damage costs.
Environmental costs
Since the greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by the two-wheelers are harmful for the environment, there can be concluded that the emissions of the two-wheelers in Mumbai definitely contribute to the strengthening of the global warming (Loo, Billa & Singh, 2015).
India has to cope with the so-called “monsoon”, which can be described as a wind from the southwest of south that brings heavy rainfall to southern Asia in the summer. Moreover, this heavy rainfall occurs in a very short period of time. The “monsoons” are already hard to predict, but due to the
July 2005, the city experienced the worst flooding in history. In addition, almost 1000 mm of rain fell on Mumbai in only 24 hours. This in combination with a failure of the drainage system, which is mainly the result of the rapid urbanisation, resulted in directly economic damages estimated around almost 2 billion US dollars and around 500 fatalities (Ranger et al., 2010).
Over the coming decades, the pressures of urbanisation may be aggravated by manmade climate change. Ranger et al. (2010) found out that when the temperature continues to rise due to the global warming, the likelihood of a 2005-like event will more than double. Next to that, they have estimated that the total losses associated with an event like this could triple, so 6 billion US dollars, compared with the 2005 situation due to the climate change alone (Ranger et al., 2010).
Lastly, Mumbai and actually whole India depends for a large part on agriculture. In addition, where more than 60 per cent of the crops depend on rainfall, irregular monsoons and rising temperatures will have large and negative impact on the food supply of India and by this way also have a large impact on the economy (Loo et al., 2015).
All in all, when valuing the health and environmental impacts there can be concluded that making the two wheelers in Mumbai electric definitely has pros and cons. Making the two wheelers in Mumbai electric would firstly lower the health costs for the citizens of Mumbai by 6 per cent.
Next to that, when valuing the environmental impacts, making the two wheelers electric would also make a economical improvement. Because the environmental impacts and pollution are strengthening the global warming and rising temperatures, the changes of flooding like the one in 2005 will double, with huge economic consequences for Mumbai. Besides, the irregular monsoons will have a large and negative impact on the food sector of India and Mumbai. However, the new electric two wheelers are very expensive for the citizens of Mumbai. Therefore, internalizing the externalities would make the transition more realisable.
5. Discussion & Recommendations
Conventional vehicles cause environmental as well as health costs that are not included in most economic analyses. Alarming health and environmental costs were found that translate into high economical costs. These findings are discussed below.
Different fuel types have different emissions and these emissions contribute to the smog that covers the city of Mumbai in different ways. The composition of the polluted air was highly oxidizing and ozone was the principal bad actor, with smaller contributions from other pollutants. A change in the amount and composition of air pollutants was identified in the ambient air by the Environmental Protection Agency, which experienced a significant expansion in more recent times. This is related to the rising amount of scooters and mopeds. The smog formation above Mumbai can have hazardous consequences and the sources are ought to be controlled. Figure 2 shows the causes and consequences of tropospheric ozone formation on plants and humans. Only the latter is taken into the research, because the consequences to forests and crops, basically mortality, is less interesting due to the limited presence of these kinds of vegetation in Mumbai.
As the energy provided by the Indian grid exists mainly out of fossil fuel based technologies, implementing BEV’s would mainly mean a replacement of oil combustion in the city centre by ICE’s to coal combustion in the periphery at power plants. This will not lead to lower emissions, but merely a displacement of emissions. Coal combustion is even more polluting in terms of CO2 than oil combustion. There is a huge potential for solar energy in India, we stress the need for fast development and implementation of these technologies so that the energy mix will become more sustainable. If in the near future solar energy will take a bigger share, the implementation of BEV’s in Mumbai will be an interesting solution to reducing its transport emissions. This counts for other urban areas as well. As long as nations keep providing their national grids with fossil energy, the implementation of electric vehicles does not contribute to lower emissions.
The well being of people living in Mumbai is greatly damaged by the lack of air quality. Emission concentrations are exceeding the guidelines set by the World Health Organization to great extent, thus affecting human health. Especially high levels of Particulate Matter, Ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide do most harm to public health. High levels cause increases in cases of; lung cancer, asthma, respiratory diseases and premature deaths. A shift to electric use would benefit human health to certain heights. As became clear from the environmental impact analysis, current electricity is mainly generated by coal power plants thus still emitting high levels of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide but further away from the city centre. This means that the health impact declines as there will be lower concentrations of harmful gases in the city centre but will not be solved.
As result of valuing the health and environmental impacts, making the two wheelers in Mumbai electric definitely has pros and cons. Making the two wheelers in Mumbai electric would firstly lower the health costs for the citizens of Mumbai by 6%. Moreover, when valuing the environmental impacts, the would also make a economical improvement. Since the environmental impacts and pollution are strengthening the global warming and rising temperatures, the changes of flooding like the one in 2005 will double, with huge economic consequences for Mumbai. Next to that, the irregular monsoons will have a large
wheelers is economically feasible. Since a new electric two-wheeler is very expensive, it is still questionable if the population is able to afford a new electric one. But, internalizing the externalities, could make this transition accelerate and possible.
Lastly, the environmental and health costs together slowly accumulate on the long term to alarming high amounts. However, as governments need their short-term successes, they are often not taken into account in policy making.
This report outlined the health and environmental impacts and evaluated those from an economic perspective. However, due to scope and time limitations, we were not able to make a precise cost and benefit analysis. This is a recommendation for further research as we think that it would contribute to a clearer understanding of the economic costs that result from emissions from transport.
To conclude, implementing electric vehicles causes lower emissions of air pollutants in the city centre but will lead to higher emissions in the periphery. Therefore, a part of the health problems and costs will be solved as there is a higher population density in the Mumbai than in the periphery and thus less people will be exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter and harmful gases. However, the environmental impacts are not reduced as long as India does not use its potential for solar energy or other renewable technologies.
Although the economic benefits of making two wheelers in Mumbai electric are beyond dispute, this especially applies for the long-term. While on the short term the investments and the not yet visible economic benefits overrule the long-term benefits. What is more, as governments need their short-term successes, they often do not take this into account in their policy making.
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