• No results found

817 Odujh vkduhkroghuv

In document UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) (pagina 35-39)

Wkh frpsdulvrq ri edqn dqg htxlw| pdunhw frqwuro lq rxu edvh prgho ljqruhv d frpprq wklug prgh ri frusrudwh frqwuro/ qdpho| idplo| rzqhuvkls166 Frq0 fhqwudwhg rzqhuvkls zloo hphujh qdwxudoo| zkhq lqyhvwru surwhfwlrq lv zhdn/

vr wkdw sulydwh frqwuro ehqhwv duh odujh1 Exw li ohjlvodwlrq lqghhg uh hfwv srolwlfdo fkrlfhv/ zkhq zrxog zhdn plqrulw| lqyhvwru surwhfwlrq hphujh lq htxloleulxpB

Lq wklv vxevhfwlrq zh vkrz wkdw frqfhqwudwhg rzqhuv pd| eh dq dowhu0 qdwlyh wr edqn jryhuqdqfh/ wrohudwhg e| d srolwlfdo pdmrulw| ehfdxvh lw pd|

vxssruw orz ulvn vwudwhjlhv1 Odujh vkduhkroghuv duh xqglyhuvlhg/ vr wkh| kdyh dq lqwhuhvw lq olplwlqj ulvn h{srvxuh1 Pruhryhu/ vroyhqf| lv d frqglwlrq iru pdlqwdlqlqj wkhlu +hqgrjhqrxv, frqwuro uhqwv/ zklfk uhlqirufhv wkhlu dyhuvlrq wr ulvn1 Rxu dssurdfk uhvhpeohv Sdjdqr dqg Yroslq +5333,/ dowkrxjk khuh wkh doorfdwlrq ri frqwuro dqg lwv ehqhwv duh pdmrulwduldq ghflvlrqv1

Dv lq wkh pdlq prgho/ dvvxph wkdw wkhuh lv d frqwlqxxp ri upv  5 dfc o +wr uxoh rxw djjuhjdwh ulvn,/ exw dvvxph wkdw wkhuh lv frqwlqxxp ri krxvhkrogv

 5 dfc o/ zkhuh  : 2/ dqg hdfk ri wkh uvw  5 dfc o krxvhkrogv krogv d frqwuro vwdnh w lq up 1 +Wkh vwdnh grhv qrw qhhg wr eh lq h{fhvv ri 83(/ dv orqj dv lw lv wkh rqo| odujh lqglylgxdo vwdnh lq wkh up1, Zh dvvxph iru vlpsolflw| wkdw vxfk ulfk djhqwv kdyh qr zhdowk rxwvlgh wkh up dqg qr vwdnhkroghu fodlp1 Wkh rwkhu krxvhkrogv  5 Ec o duh hpsor|hg +vxfk wkdw hdfk up kdv rq dyhudjh    hpsor|hhv, dqg krog glyhuvlhg qdqfldo fodlpv lq wkh1upv1

Ulvn dyhuvh djhqwv zrxog fkrrvh wr glyhuvli|/ xqohvv wkh| uhfhlyh vrph ehqhw iurp kroglqj d odujh vwdnh1 Vxssrvh wkhuhiruh wkdw d srolwlfdo pd0 mrulw| doorzv odujh vkduhkroghuv wkh delolw| wr h{wudfw vrph frqwuro ehqhwv

/ vxewudfwhg iurp surwv ehiruh jhqhudo glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh frqwuro ehqhw lv orvw lq fdvh ri ghidxow1

Wkh zhdowk ri d w|slfdo frqwuroolqj vkduhkroghu +zkr duh doo htxdo, wkhq lv

` '

 wE-  M   n E  w li -  M      f 4@ E-  M  c f li -  M     f

66Diwhu wkh Iluvw Zruog Zdu/ wkh hphujhqfh ri frusrudwlvp zdv dvvrfldwhg zlwk lqfuhdvhg rzqhuvkls frqfhqwudwlrq lq vhyhudo frxqwulhv/ sduwlfxoduo| lq Vzhghq dqg Lwdo| +Krjihogw/

5336> Djdqlq dqg Yroslq/ 5336,1 Urh +5333, h{sodlqv wklv hylghqfh e| dujxlqj wkdw vwurqj rzqhuv zhuh qhhghg wr frqwuro wkh ghpdqgv rq sulydwh frpsdqlhv e| wkh vwdwh dqg od0 eru1 \hw vxfk dq lqfuhdvhg frqfhqwudwlrq ri frqwuro pxvw kdyh ehhq ghhphg srolwlfdoo|

dffhswdeoh1

zkhuh - lv wkh uhwxuq ri wkh up frqwuroohg e| wkh vkduhkroghu/ dqg M dqg  wkh hpsor|hh dqg ghew fodlpv lq wkh up dv lq wkh pdlq prgho1 Wkh qdqfldo uhwxuq ri vxfk d up +jrlqj wr ghew kroghuv ru htxlw| kroghuv, wkhq lv

;A

Khqfh/ li doo upv dgrsw wkh vdph vwudwhj| j 5 irc oj/ wrwdo qdqfldo zhdowk lq wkh hfrqrp| dffuxlqj wr wkh qrq0frqwuroolqj krxvhkrogv 5 Ec o lv

Wklv ydoxh wdnhv lqwr dffrxqw wkdw wkh ryhudoo qdqfldo sd|rxw ri upv lv uhgxfhg e| wkh sulydwh ehqhw ri frqwuroolqj rzqhuv1

D frqwuroolqj vkduhkroghu zloo fkrrvh wkh vdihu vwudwhj| li dqg rqo| li .d`mj ' oo

2@oE`mj ' o  .d`mj ' ro

2@oE`mj ' r +54, Wkh phgldq yrwhu qrz fkrrvhv wkh ohyho ri oderu uhqwv M dqg ri sulydwh frqwuro ehqhwv  wr pd{lpl}h klv xwlolw| iurp qdqfldo dqg kxpdq fdslwdo zhdowk1 Wkh wudghr ehklqg wkh fkrlfh ri M lv dv lv wkh pdlq prgho1 Wkh fkrlfh ri / krzhyhu/ lqwurgxfhv d qhz hohphqw1 Rq wkh rqh kdqg/ d kljkhu  uhgxfhv uhvlgxdo qdqfldo zhdowk gluhfwo| +dv lv fohdu iurp +53,,/ rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ li  lv wrr vpdoo/ frqglwlrq +54, zloo w|slfdoo| qrw krog +ghshqglqj rq wkh ulvn dyhuvlrq ,1

Li wkh phgldq yrwhu grhv qrw rzq pxfk qdqfldo zhdowk/ wkh uvw hhfw zloo eh ohvv lpsruwdqw dqg kh zloo lqfuhdvh  vxfk dv wr pdnh +54, krog zlwk htxdolw|1 Wklv pdnhv wkh odujh vkduhkroghuv ulvn dyhuvh dqg lqgxfhv wkh vdihu vwudwhj|1 Li wkh phgldq yrwhu krogv vx!flhqw qdqfldo zhdowk/ kh zloo ghfuhdvh

 wr }hur/ irvwhu htxlw| pdunhw grplqdqfh/ dqg wkxv hqfrxudjh frusrudwh ulvn wdnlqj1

Qrwh wkdw odujh vkduhkroghuv lq vxfk v|vwhpv zloo kdyh d sduwlfxoduo|

vwurqj lqfhqwlyh wr glyhuvli| e| lqyhvwlqj lq frqwuro vwdnhv lq glhuhqw upv/

zkloh vhoolqj wkh uhvw ri wkh vkduhv rq wkh pdunhwv1 Lq idfw/ wkhuh lv d whqghqf|

iru vxfk odujh idplo| upv wr irup exvlqhvv jurxsv/ zklfk iru frqwuro uhdvrqv zloo eh rujdql}hg dv htxlw| s|udplgv1

9 Frqfoxvlrqv

Wklv sdshu vxjjhvwv wkdw lq ghprfudflhv/ qdqfldo dqg oderu ohjlvodwlrq/ dv zhoo dv wkh irup ri frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh/ duh hqgrjhqrxv wr wkh hyroylqj srolwlfdo pdmrulw| ylhz1 Wkh suhihuhqfh ri wkh phgldq fodvv lv vkrzq wr ghshqg rq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri qdqfldo zhdowk uhodwlyh wr kxpdq fdslwdo1 Wklv pd| h{sodlq odujh glhuhqfhv lq frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh dfurvv frxqwulhv dv d v|vwhplf fkrlfh/ uh hfwlqj wkh glvwulexwlrq ri qdqfldo zhdowk1

Wkh frpelqdwlrq ri kljk vwdnhkroghu uhqw surwhfwlrq/ zhdn uljkwv iru vkduhkroghuv/ d vwurqj uroh iru lqvwlwxwlrqv/ dqg d uhodwlyho| frqvhuydwlyh ds0 surdfk wr lqyhvwphqw uhvhpeohv wkh vwuxfwxuh ri vr fdoohg frusrudwlvw hfr0 qrplf v|vwhpv/ vxfk dv frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh ru Mdsdq167 Shukdsv pruh lqwhu0 hvwlqjo|/ wkh wkhru| vxjjhvwv wkdw frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh v|vwhpv fdq fkdqjh dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri qdqfldo zhdowk/ ehfdxvh d srolwlfdo pd0 mrulw| zloo ghpdqg lw1 D pruh jhqhudo frqfoxvlrq lv wkdw wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d

qdqfldoo| vrolg phgldq fodvv pd| eh hvvhqwldo iru ghprfudwlf vxssruw iru d pdunhw hqylurqphqw168

Wkh wkhru| sursrvhg khuh dovr rhuv dq h{sodqdwlrq iru wkh fruuhodwlrq ri fxuuhqw pdunhw ghyhorsphqw zlwk ohjdo ruljlq/ grfxphqwhg e| OdSruwd hw do1 +4<<;,1 Lq rxu lqwhusuhwdwlrq/ wkh lq dwlrqdu| vkrfnv iroorzlqj ZZ4 rffxuuhg prvwo| dv d uhvxow ri vfdo fulvhv lq hlwkhu ghihdwhg qdwlrqv/ ru lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq frxqwulhv zkhuh zdu gdpdjh zdv h{whqvlyh1 Wkh Dqjor0Vd{rq frxqwulhv zhuh doolhv lq wkh zdu dqg ehfdxvh ri jhrjudsk|/ wkh|

hvfdshg gluhfw zdu gdpdjh +dowkrxjk wkh frvwv ri ZZ4 zhuh kxjh hyhq iru wkh XN/ zklfk uxq grzq pxfk ri lwv frqvlghudeoh qdqfldo vwuhqjwk,1 Wklv

67Wklv dujxphqw lv vwuxfwxudoo| vlplodu wr wkh rqh e| Urguln +4<<;,/ zkr suhvhqwv hy0 lghqfh wkdw ghyhorshg frxqwulhv zlwk odujh h{srvxuh wr wudgh kdyh odujhu sxeolf vhfwruv/

dqg lqwhusuhwv lw dv d srolwlfdo fkrlfh iru juhdwhu vrfldo lqvxudqfh lq wkh idfh ri xqfhuwdlqw|

lqgxfhg e| pruh frpshwlwlrq1

68Udmdq dqg ]lqjdohv +5336e, glvfxvv vrph ri wkh klvwrulfdo gl!fxowlhv lq wkh hphujhqfh +ru fuhdwlrq, ri vxfk d jurxs1

khosv wr h{sodlq wkh ghjuhh ri pdunhw ghyhorsphqw lq flylo odz frxqwulhv wkdw vwd|hg rxw ri wkh zdu/ vxfk dv wkh Qhwkhuodqgv dqg Vzlw}huodqg1 Dffrug0 lqjo|/ wkh hphujhqfh ri lqvlghu0rxwvlghu qdqfldo v|vwhpv dv ghvfulehg lq wkh olwhudwxuh rq ohjdo ruljlq pd| eh wkh uhvxow ri srolwlfdo fkrlfhv iroorzlqj klv0 wrulfdo hyhqwv/ dqg qrw h{foxvlyho| ri klvwrulfdo ohjdo ruljlq169 Dv dq dgglwlrqdo fruurerudwlqj hylghqfh/ wkh srolwlfdo hfrqrp| dssurdfk fdq h{sodlq wkh fru0 uhodwlrq ri vwurqj qdqfldo ghyhorsphqw dqg zhdnhu oderu odzv lq ghyhorshg ghprfudflhv ehwwhu wkdq ohjdo ruljlq/ zklfk kdv qr h{solflw suhglfwlrq1

Rxu dssurdfk fdq khos wr h{sodlq zkdw vhhpv wr eh wkh XN0sx}}oh lq frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh wkhru|= Wkh Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp suhvhqwv dq lqwhuhvwlqj frqwudvw wr wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Lw kdv d vlplodu vhsdudwlrq ri rzqhuvkls dqg frqwuro lq frusrudwlrqv exw yhu| glhuhqw qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/

wkh edqnlqj v|vwhp lv frqfhqwudwhg dqg 111 wkhuh duh ihz li dq| h{solflw uh0 vwulfwlrqv rq wkh dfwlylwlhv wkdw edqnv pd| xqghuwdnh 111 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ edqnv kdyh fkrvhq qrw wr ehfrph lqyroyhg lq frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh111 Wklv frp0 sdulvrq lv gl!fxow wr uhfrqfloh zlwk wkh lghd wkdw lw lv srolwlfv dqg ohjdo dqg uhjxodwru| frqvwudlqwv wkdw lv wkh vroh ghwhuplqdqw ri glhuhqfhv lq frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh dfurvv frxqwulhv +Doohq dqg Jdoh +5333,/ ss1 4430444,1 Wkh gdwd zh suhvhqw vxjjhvw wkdw wkh phgldq yrwhuv lq wkh XN dqg wkh XV duh yhu| vlplodu lq wkhlu rulhqwdwlrq wr qdqfldo uhwxuqv/ dqg lw lv wkhuhiruh qrw vxusulvlqj wkdw d srolwlfdo pdmrulw| lq wkh XN zrxog olnh wr uhvwulfw edqnv*

lq xhqfh1 Wkh idfw wkdw wklv lv qrw pdlqo| dfklhyhg wkurxjk irupdo odzv/ dv lq wkh X1V1/ exw udwkhu wkurxjk lqirupdo +jhqwohphqv*, djuhhphqwv ehwzhhq wkh Flw|/ wkh Edqn ri Hqjodqg/ dqg wkh jryhuqphqw lv shukdsv d glvwlqfw Eulwlvk ihdwxuh16:

D srwhqwldo fkdoohqjh wr rxu wkhru| frxog eh wkh remhfwlrq wkdw fdslwdo vwuxfwxuh/ zklfk zh kdyh wdnhq dv h{rjhqrxv/ zloo dgmxvw wr wkh srolwlfdo iudphzrun/ zlwk wkh srwhqwldo wr xqgr lwv frusrudwh frqwuro lpsolfdwlrqv1 \hw/

rxu dujxphqw lv qrw uhdoo| wlhg wr wkh irupdo fdslwdo vwuxfwxuh ri upv/ exw udwkhu wr wkh glvwulexwlrq ri lq xhqfh lq wkh hfrqrp|/ vhw e| wkh phgldq yrwhu1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ iru edqnv wr kdyh lq xhqfh lq rxu prgho lw qrw qrw qhfhvvdu|

wkdw wkh| qdqfh d odujh vkduh ri frusrudwh edodqfh vkhhwv1 Htxlw|kroghuv/

ri frxuvh/ pd| wu| wr hpdqflsdwh iurp edqn grplqdqfh e| wdnlqj rq ohvv edqn ghew/ uhgxflqj edqn htxlw| sduwlflsdwlrq lq wkhlu fdslwdo vwuxfwxuh/ hwf1

69Zh frqfxu wkdw frpprq odz kdv glvwlqfwlyh ihdwxuhv uhvwudlqlqj vwdwh lq xhqfh zklfk kdv d idyrudeoh lpsdfw rq sulydwh vhfwru dxwrqrp| dqg pdunhw ghyhorsphqw1

6:Vhh Iudqnv/ Pd|hu dqg Urvvl +5336, iru dq h{sorudwlrq ri wklv lvvxh1

Krzhyhu/ dv glvfxvvhg lq Vhfwlrq 717/ li srolwlfdo lqwhuhvw +uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh phgldq yrwhu, rssrvhv wklv wuhqg/ wkhuh duh pdq| gluhfw dqg lqgluhfw ohjdo phdqv wkdw fdq judqw edqnv fulwlfdo lq xhqfh rq up ghflvlrqv1

D fkdoohqjh iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk lv wr h{soruh ixuwkhu wkh g|qdplfv ri lq0 vwlwxwlrqdo fkdqjh lqsolflw lq wkh dqdo|vlv1 Lq sulqflsoh/ wkh dssurdfk kdv lpsolfdwlrqv iru pdmru lqvwlwxwlrqdo fkdqjhv dv wkh uhodwlyh hqgrzphqw dqg glvwulexwlrq ri kxpdq dqg qdqfldo fdslwdo hyroyhv ryhu wlph1 Wklv hyrox0 wlrq pd| eh wkh uhvxow ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh +zklfk pd| dowhu wkh uhodwlyh dwwudfwlyhqhvv ri ulvn| lqyhvwphqw,/ ghprjudsk| +zklfk pd| dhfw wkh hyr0 oxwlrq ri shqvlrq qdqflqj,/ ru e| hfrqrplf dqg qdqfldo lqwhjudwlrq +zklfk pd| lqgxfh pruh frpshwlwlrq dprqj lqvwlwxwlrqdo irupv,1 Lw pd| dovr eh dhfwhg e| srolwlfdo fkrlfhv wkdw lq xhqfh wkh doorfdwlrq ri lqglylgxdo sruw0 irolrv/ vxfk dv shqvlrq uhirup wrzdugv fdslwdol}hg shqvlrq ixqgv1 Wkh prgho wkhuhiruh kdv lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh hyroxwlrq ri frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh wrzdugv d pruh pdunhw0rulhqwhg qdqfldo vwuxfwxuh wkdw vhhpv wr eh fxuuhqwo| xqghu zd| lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh1

: Dsshqgl{

In document UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) (pagina 35-39)