Decision making in the assessment stage

4.6.1 Aim of assessment

Assessment, defined as ‘the determination of progress, based on subjective and objective level measurements, to support the decision making’, is a fundamental aspect of a successful operation. It creates an opportunity to monitor continuously the situation and the progress of the operation. In a dynamic environment, assessment provides support for the commander in the deliberations he makes before taking decisions on the rest of the operation. As a specified step in the cyclic decision-making process, constant assessment must take place at the various levels of a military organisation.

Just as the desired effects are specified during the planning, so too must be the assessment criteria. The way in which insight will be given into the results must also be specified. This does not mean, though, that assessment should be the lead process; it supports the decision-making process, but no more than that. Empirical, objective evidence is not always available, or perhaps there is no means to obtain it. In such cases, the use of assessment criteria is incorrect. Above all, therefore, the subjective opinion of the commander, based on his experience and feel for the situation, remains crucial and dominant. Furthermore, assessment must not degenerate into a purely mechanical process. It requires assessment skills and a considered military opinion, based on sufficient information. The temptation to develop assessment methods that are unnecessarily complex and which lay a disproportio-nate claim on staff capacity must be resisted.

4.6.2 Assessment and campaigning

There are three forms of assessment: measurement of activity (MOA), measurement of effect (MOE) and campaign effectiveness assessment (CEA). Each of these forms contributes to campaigning in three ways:

› Initial campaign planning. Assessment during the initial planning phase creates a detailed understanding of the possible desired effects and can also serve as a means to validate the process.

› Iterative planning. Assessment supports iterative planning as soon as the operation has begun. It enables the commander to give timely amended orders and provides him with the opportunity to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.

› New situation. Assessment also has a wider function: the validation of the initial planning considerations and the establishment of any changes therein. It also deepens awareness of the operational environment on the part of the commander and his staff.

133 4.6.3 Assessment as an operational art

Just as other elements of campaigning, assessment is an expression of operational art.

Successful assessment is thus an integral part of the skill set that a commander needs to possess.

The established synchronisation of activities for an operation is almost entirely adjustable on the basis of assessment results. A commander must then decide which aspects of the operation will benefit from the assessment results, the availability of assets being an important factor in determining whether any adjustment should be made. This process requires a creative spirit on the part of the commander, open to different options.

Assessment supports the commander’s decision-making process. This is further determined in part by his broader take on the situation, personal attitude towards subordinates and representatives of other organisations involved, and by the opinions of his superiors. A critical review and consideration of assessment results is thus an important part of the wider decision-making process.

4.6.4 Campaign design and management

The staff is responsible for designing and managing the operation of which the assessment forms part.

› Planning assessment. While the commander formulates guidelines and directs the processes to be evaluated, the staff is responsible for the detailed planning of the assessment process itself.

› Collecting and recording assessment data. Subordinate commanders are responsible for the collection and subsequent submission of data for the assessment process at operational level. Use will also be made of input from the higher level and from relevant (international) organisations.

› Evaluation of assessment data. The evaluation of assessment data is monitored by the commander. To be able to do this properly requires expertise and an extensive knowledge of assessment techniques, but military evaluation skills must ultimately be the deciding factor. An objective evaluation of media reporting, in combination with an analysis of the public support for the mission, is extremely important in determining the media strategy and any necessary adjustments thereof.

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4.6.5 Dealing with assessment at a headquarters

The way in which headquarters handle assessment depends on the type of operation and the means available. In multinational operations, the circumstances are different and probably trickier than in the case of national operations. This is because assessment data has to be collected for both national and international purposes, which may give rise to different angles of approach. In such cases, a commander must make clear beforehand to the parties involved what can and cannot be done in order to keep the assessment process as simple and as transparent as possible.

4.6.6 Lessons learned

Lessons learned (LL) are permanent improvements in combat power based on past experience. The LL process relates to both current and future operations and its aim is to learn continuous and structural lessons from experience. The process must be properly directed. LL can lead to the confirmation or improvement of existing doctrines, organisa-tion, materiel, training, etc.

The LL process is based on observations. These observations, or ‘lessons identified’, are the observed effects of activities that have been performed. The collection and analysis of the observations forms the core of the LL process. The analysis should generate a deeper understanding whereby value judgements are to be avoided as much as possible in order to arrive at a picture that is as objective as it can be. Given the diverse (cultural) perspectives, that is particularly important in a multinational setting.

From the outset, commanders have to create the conditions for the collection of observati-ons and the start-up of an LL process at all levels. Respobservati-onsibility for directing this process and processing the results lies at military-strategic level.

4.6.7 Recording

The recording of operational actions by the Netherlands armed forces is important for the subsequent systematic, application-based study and for the supply of information about those actions to the political and civil leaders of the Ministry of Defence. This applies fully to all operations involving the participation of the Netherlands armed forces or individual military personnel. Recording is taken to mean the normal archiving process, supplemen-ted by special arrangements.

135 Together, they ensure that a full and reliable reconstruction of the course of the operation

will be possible from documents after the event. Lessons can also be drawn from this for subsequent deployment of Netherlands military personnel. CHOD Directive A-1201 sorts out the special arrangements for recording during all operations in the sense of national administrative attachment.

As well as the recording described above, the Director of Operations may, in consultation with the coordinating operational command and the Netherlands Institute of Military History, decide that a diarist be assigned to an operation. This diarist will form part of the staff and will take part in all staff meetings and briefings. CHOD Directive A-157 contains further specifications regarding the role of the diarist. Lastly, CHOD Directive A-158 sets requirements for the archiving process during operations.